Research Tree | Equity Research for Investors

Level the playing field with real-time Equity Research

Research Tree offers both private and institutional investors access to the latest UK investment research from over 35 Brokers and Research Providers, offering comprehensive coverage of small and mid-cap stocks.

The Equity Research Platform

Equity research, broker reports, target prices, and valuations on UK-listed companies in real-time.

Our platform learns which sectors, industries, and markets you're intersted in to help you discover new stocks.

24 Feb 21

SP Angel Healthcare Conditions

Novacyt S.A. (NCYT.L*): R&D Update | N4 Pharma (N4P.L): Full year results

Companies: Novacyt SAS (ALNOV:PAR)N4 Pharma Plc (N4P:LON)

25 Feb 21

CMD shows continued positive progress

Yesterday’s CMD from RBGP saw presentations from the Group CEO and each of the three division heads, outlining the Group’s strategy and updating on progress. Since our investment revisit note (here), which laid out what we expected for FY21E, we have upgraded forecasts for both FY21E and FY22E (here), and have seen continued progress against the investment case. We summarise the key points for each division below. RBGP’s shares are up c.55% YTD to 91p; a 12.1x FY21E PER (11.2x EV/EBITDA) with a 4.8% FY21E dividend yield. Putting the shares on a rating in line with the peer group would suggest an intrinsic value of 120p.

Companies: RBG Holdings Plc

22 Feb 21

Surface Transforms (SCE LN) - Investing for the ramp-up

Surface Transforms is now well capitalised following completion of an oversubscribed c.£20m fundraise. Management will move rapidly to develop OEM Production Cell Two to fulfil new and anticipated orders. We update our estimates for the fundraise and the revised investment programme. Sales and gross profit are unchanged, but overheads will be higher in all years reflecting the required investment in the platform to deliver for customers. 2021e will be a year of build-out; OEM orders start to flow properly in H2. The Group should turn sharply profitable in 2022e, with a further ramp-up in 2023e. With Cell Two up-and-running, factory revenue capacity will rise to £35m from £20m currently. We assume a sustainable net margin of 25%-30%, or implied profit up to £10.5m and a PE of c.14x. A fully fitted-out five-cell factory could generate up to £22.5m of net profit each year. Surface Transforms must deliver but is now well positioned for the medium-term.

Companies: Surface Transforms plc

24 Feb 21

BOTB - Conclusion of Strategic Options Review & profit upgrade

The group has announced the Board’s decision to terminate the Strategic Options Review announced in June 2020 and to continue to focus on its existing online strategy, which continues to generate exceptional growth and strong cash flow. The statement also provides a trading update that confirms continuing strong trading through Q3. Our current year forecast PBT is upgraded by 79% from £7.8m to £14.0m.

Companies: Best of the Best plc

25 Feb 21

dotDigital - Strong interims give room for investment

In a repeat of the pattern of 1H20, dotdigital’s strong 1H21 to December substantially derisks the achievement of unchanged FY profit expectations, and allows room for increased investment after we tickle FY21 revenue forecasts up 2%. As we noted in our “Treble 20” note at the time of the January trading update, all key revenue stats grew by at least 20% compared with the pre-COVID 1H to December 2019, suggesting very strong momentum in each of the pillars of growth (territory, product and partners) – the aim to generate more revenue, from more customers using more communication channels, in more territories, and through more partners. 22% organic group revenue growth derived from average revenue per customer growth of 20%; additional functionality revenue growth of 20%; international revenue growth of 27%, and allows additional investment in growth in 2H21 and beyond. EMEA (incl. UK), generated significant growth of 21% (1H20: 11%) from increased SMS messaging as a further channel, reducing group gross margin to a still strong 82% (1H20: 94%). EBITDA of £10.5m from revenue of £28.2m led to free cash generation of £3.2m (1H21: £3.1m), with DOTD cashflow seasonally stronger in 2H. The net cash balance of £27.6m (FY21E: £30.3m) leaves all strategic opportunities open to the group. Target 200p (185p).

Companies: dotDigital Group plc

23 Feb 21

Arcontech - Solid H1 results with +5% revenue growth

Arcontech has reported a solid set of H1 21 results that provide a strong foundation for future growth. H1 revenue has increased +5% to £1.54m as 90% of Arcontech’s revenue is from recurring licence fees, and the October 2020 new tier one client win and tier one client contract upgrade provide £100k of additional annual recurring revenue, which offsets an existing client developing certain functionality in-house. The strength and flexibility of Arcontech’s solutions have enabled it to achieve these client wins despite a challenging H2 20 and H1 21 environment, where it has been difficult to finalise new sales due to limited customer contact and decisions being delayed due to remote working. In this environment, the two new additions to Arcontech’s salesforce since January 2020 have had a limited impacted on revenue, and the YoY opex impact leads to H1 adjusted EBIT declining 7% to £0.52m. However, Arcontech’s strengthened salesforce has been diligently establishing relationships with new potential customers, and as conditions return towards normal, we expect Arcontech will deliver new client wins that will benefit revised forecasts with a high incremental margin. Arcontech’s strong net cash of £5.0m continues to provide it with the flexibility to invest in accelerating its future growth through product development and sales, and we continue to expect it will grow its dividend by 10% at FY21 results. Although we reduce our forecasts to reflect the challenging sales environment, we look forward to Arcontech announcing new contract wins as it builds upon its strong foundations. On 23x 12m forward P/E with +5% NTM EPS growth and an EFCF yield of 4%, Arcontech trades at a discount to peers in financial information and the finnCap Next 50 on P/Es of 27-47x with NTM EPS growth of +6-15%, and EFCF yields of 2-4%.

Companies: Arcontech Group PLC

24 Feb 21

Faster cost of risk normalisation

The lockdowns continued to weigh on the top-line performance, but the state’s supporting measures have proven so successful that the quarter enjoyed provision recoveries and the cost of risk is expected to almost fully normalise as soon as this year. However, 2021 will remain a transitory year as the top-line is expected to recover only progressively.

Companies: Lloyds Banking Group plc

19 Feb 21

Small Cap Feast

AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard) this Spring. Target valuation £20m raising c. £8m “to finalise the development and launch of a range of the Company's premium-quality consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids, which is fully compliant under UK law.” NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Auction Technology Group is considering an IPO on the Main Market. The Group operates six world-leading online Marketplaces and proprietary global auction platform technology for curated online auctions. In FY20 the Group delivered pro forma revenue of £52.3m, supported by notable underlying year-on-year growth from both Standalone ATG Group and Standalone Proxibid Group (12.4 per cent. and 40.4 per cent., respectively). For the same period, the Group delivered a strong profitability performance of £22.3m pro forma Adjusted EBITDA representing a pro forma Adjusted EBITDA margin of 42.6 per cent. Expected March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5 million. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7 million. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc recently set out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Deal details TBC but media reports suggest a £100m valuation. Targeting 2nd March Admission Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.

Companies: SBI OCI IDOX ROL JAN BSE PXS SHED TSG KDNC

24 Feb 21

Decisive actions to transform the company

Aviva continues to execute rapidly its strategy, leaving France and Turkey. In the last few months, the insurer has realised six transactions. The cash will be used to improve business in the targeted markets (the UK, Ireland, Canada), reduce debt (£1.5bn in 2022) and to distribute a dividend to shareholders (14p per share to be proposed at the upcoming General Meeting).

Companies: Aviva plc

22 Feb 21

Tristel - Strong interims and US regulatory progress

Tristel reported interim results that were c.2% above the trading update at its AGM on 17 December with adjusted pre-tax profit of £3.4m (+12%) driven by a 15% increase in revenues. Despite the strong first half there is a cautionary tone to the second half, given the lacklustre start to H2 FY 2021 as a result of lockdown in many of its markets impacting out-patient procedures. That said, our forecasts assume 5% revenue growth in H2 with adjusted PBT 5% below H2 FY 2020. With the prospect of vaccination rollout opening markets, there is a clear route to achieving and exceeding our forecasts, but for the time being we leave forecasts unchanged. However, confirmation that it has completed a Usability and Form Factor study in the US is a significant milestone, underpinning our confidence for US market access and the reason for increasing our target price to 550p, which implies a prospective 3.0% free cashflow yield.

Companies: Tristel Plc

18 Feb 21

Cenkos: Trinity Exploration and Production Plc -- Scaling the Business

Following our recent update, we have provided some further clarification regarding our financial forecasts, outlining our changes whilst upgrading our year end cash forecasts. Our revised cash forecasts are US$20.0m for FY21E and US$17.7m for FY22E (in advance of Echo FID). Furthermore, despite the challenging macro-environment, Trinity is highly geared towards increases in the oil price, with a US$60/bbl average realised oil price increasing our FY21E, closing cash expectations further to US$23.7m. Below we present a FY22E scenario whereby we assume that the capex involved in the Echo development does not come into play until a Final Investment Decision (FID), leaving the Company with a YE22E cash position of US$17.7m. Our forecasts reflect the current asset base and at this stage do not capture any upside for the extensive opportunity set.

Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc

22 Feb 21

Fonix Mobile - Strong H1 results with +28% EBITDA growth

Following Fonix’s IPO in October 2020, H1 results demonstrate strong growth that is comfortably in line with unchanged expectations. Successful strategic execution to expand with existing clients has led to H1 TPV growth of +18%, and no churn, while adding 21 new clients from a robust pipeline of opportunities. H1 revenue has grown +25%, while gross profit has increased +22% to £5.8m, with gross margin as a % of TPV marginally increasing to 4.7% from 4.6%. The strong operating leverage of Fonix’s proprietary cloud-based platform has driven H1 EBITDA growth of +28%, as Fonix has diligently controlled its opex while continuing to evolve its platform to meet and exceed client needs. H1 adjusted net income increased +28%, while adjusted EPS increased +24% to 3.6p due to the increase in diluted shares. In line with the target 75% payout ratio, the maiden interim dividend of 1.7p is on track for 5.1p for the year. Forecast underlying FCF will amply cover the dividend, and H1 21 underlying adjusted FCF of £3.6m increased underlying net cash to £3.6m. As trends become clear during Fonix’s first year post IPO, we conservatively leave our FY21-22 forecasts unchanged and look forward to further updates in the coming months. We reiterate our target price of 200p based on a 4% FY22 FCF yield or 20x FY22 EV/EBITDA.

Companies: Fonix Mobile PLC

25 Feb 21

Maintained momentum….. …..delivers further upgrade

Further to the upgrade delivered on the back of its impressive Q3 peak trading period, G4M has continued to perform strongly in Q4, resulting in another upgrade. Management now anticipates that EBITDA for FY21E will be not less than £18.2m, compared with our previous forecast of £16.6m. We have subsequently raised our FY21E EBITDA forecast by £1.7m (+10%) to £18.3m. G4M will make a more detailed announcement on FY21E’s trading performance no later than 23 April.

Companies: Gear4music (Holdings) PLC

25 Feb 21

WHI First Light: AFC Energy (AFC) - Launch of Anion Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Test Facility

AFC Energy has this morning announced (RNS Reach) that it has launched its Anion Exchange Membrane (“AEM”) Fuel Cell test facility at the Company's Surrey headquarters. This facility will test and optimise AFC Energy's high energy-density fuel cell technology, HydroX-Cell(S)™, that is currently in development. The design of the new dedicated AEM fuel cell facility was completed in the second half of 2020 with full fit out now complete in advance of full operation.

Companies: AFC Energy plc

22 Feb 21

SP Angel Morning View:

Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV LN) – Funding proposed through digital token linked to gold Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Empire complete acquisition of Eclipse gold project Condor Gold* (CNR LN) – Drilling underway on the Cacao Vein Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – Osisko converts its note to a royalty Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – High-grade gold intersections received at Anza Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – £2m debt facility to accelerate the Empire project Rambler Metals and Mining* (RMM LN) – New non-executive appointment to strengthen the board Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Lucky Copper Project drilling

Companies: CUSN OMI BMV CNR EEE PXC RMM TYM IRR

25 Feb 21

After the portfolio reshuffle, the path ahead clears

Refocus of investments ongoing with simplification of control chain in TIPO In mid-January, Tamburi sold its 3.729% stake of Prysmian through the controlled holding company Clubtre for roughly EUR290m net cash, which should translate in a cash-in for Tamburi in the EUR148/181m range (minimum level with full reimbursement of EUR100m bank loan; maximum level with only EUR50m in loan reimbursement). Part of the proceeds should be used in the rights issue of OVS (EUR19m pro rata for Tamburi) and the establishment of the Itaca project (we estimate c. EUR100m). Yesterday the company unveiled where the rest of the proceeds will be reinvested as it reported the simplification of the shareholder structure of TIPO, (''TIP pre-IPO'' in which Tamburi has a 29.29% stake), and of Betaclub (TIPO has 58.4% stake) with the aim of raising Tamburi''s stakes in both holding companies to 100% (see figure 1 for an overview). By April the transaction should be finalized, at which time TIPO may be also resolved in our view. What is TIPO and what level of investment is needed? TIPO was created in 2014 with total committed capital of EUR140m, with the aim of investing in companies which could eventually be listed. Currently, TIPO is the owner of the stakes in Chiorino (20% stake) and Beta Utensili (22%, of which 3.9% direct). In our view, Tamburi could spend between EUR115m to EUR134.5m for the buy-out of the stakes of the other shareholders in TIPO, Betaclub and in Beta Utensili. We believe that the main shareholder of Beta Utensili may reinforce its direct stake (c. 51% currently) in the company, exercising the pre-emption right. Update of the fair value range to EUR7.7 / EUR9.0 (from EUR7.3 / EUR8.1) We have updated our SOTP-based valuation range with the expected buy-outs as described above. This leads us to raise our fair valuation range to EUR7.7 / EUR9.0. The increase of the upper level of the valuation range is greater as the potential value creation from these...

Companies: Tamburi Investment Partners (TIP:BIT)Tamburi Investment Partners S.p.A. (TIP:MIL)

25 Feb 21

Still another moderate year ahead

Bayer really needs a kind of breakthrough or a brilliant idea to change the sentiment on the name. We understand glyphosate-related issues and the related payments continue to weigh on CF, but the 2021 guidance seems to be quite reachable, especially in Crop Science. Nevertheless, our 2020 estimates were missed as we had factored in some additional provisions in Crop Science and did not envisage any potential reversals of impairments in other divisions. Consensus was met.

Companies: Bayer AG

25 Feb 21

VivoPower helps football go carbon neutral

25 Feb 21

FY20: contracting business to show resilience next year too

Eiffage has published its results which were above our estimates. Revenues were down by 10%, with contracting activities down by 9.5% and concessions by 21%. Eiffage has some major and promising projects in its pipeline which would support its contracting business in the medium term. Additionally, it has proposed a dividend payment of €3/share, which is higher than anticipated and therefore comes as a positive surprise.

Companies: Eiffage (FGR:EPA)Eiffage SA (FGR:PAR)

25 Feb 21

Adyen has to raise more equity, urgently

Adyen is piling up money in its balance sheet with no plans to spend it. This is questionable behaviour for which we believe the answer may be that the company is building up some capital to reach the requirement for a US banking licence. However, time is ticking and Adyen needs to keep up with the pace of its American peers. Raising further equity would be the key.

Companies: Adyen NV

25 Feb 21

FY 20: demonstration of resilience

BAE released a sound set of figures for FY20, beating the consensus and shining with its strong cash generation. The company remains poised for groth in FY21 thanks to its defensive backlog and high exposure to strategic contracts.

Companies: BAE Systems plc

25 Feb 21

Organic revenue improvement, strong cost reduction

The decrease in organic revenue slowed in Q4 20 (-2%) thanks to the growth acceleration in Certification and Buildings & Infrastructure and a slowdown of the negative trend in the other divisions. In 2020, the adjusted operating margin decreased less than expected (-2.9pts to 13.4% of revenue) thanks to the austerity plan that led to costs being reduced by c.€260m. The group was successful in cash collection. For 2021, the group is expecting solid organic growth and a higher operating margin.

Companies: Bureau Veritas (BVI:EPA)Bureau Veritas SA (BVI:PAR)

25 Feb 21

Operationally resilient, but its sustainability is questionable

Despite 2020 output vagaries, Anglo American did well to withstand COVID-19 uncertainties. Material (price) tailwinds for PGMs, iron ore and copper helped offset issues in other divisions. However, besides copper, there are (unaddressed and/or structural) vulnerabilities in other focus divisions. This isn’t a comforting position, especially when management has committed to major growth plans – which also limits the shareholder reward flexibility.

Companies: Anglo American plc

25 Feb 21

New launches drive Q4 20; pandemic weighs on FY21 outlook

Benefiting from new product launches and improving ophthalmic market conditions, both the Surgery and Vision care segments returned to growth in Q4 20. In our view, the recently-introduced products (Vivity, Precision1 for Astigmatism and Pataday), along with the geographic expansion of PanOptix and Prescision1, should bolster the top line in the mid-term. Moreover, the favourable product mix and cost-cutting should result in sustained operating margin expansion. Nonetheless, the uncertainty around the pandemic would remain a near-term headwind.

Companies: Alcon, Inc.

25 Feb 21

FY20 – in line with expectations

EBITDA was down by nearly 10% over the year but was perfectly in line with the consensus. In the first months of FY21, the group is still impacted by lower waste volumes but offset by a positive price effect – in all, FY21 EBITDA is expected to increase by more than 10% to finish above €4bn. The group also intends to restore its pre-pandemic dividend policy. We will slightly increase our figures, but no significant changes are expected.

Companies: Veolia Environnement (VIE:EPA)Veolia Environnement SA (VIE:PAR)

25 Feb 21

Encouraging year-end trading performance

Despite the second wave of lockdowns and re-imposed anti-pandemic measures keeping some stores shut, the group achieved top-line and profitability growth in Q4 20. The group expects the ongoing lockdowns in Europe and uncertainty related to the pandemic to continue to weigh on the group’s business until the end of Q2 21, followed by a strong recovery in H2 21.

Companies: PUMA SE

25 Feb 21

Profitability normalisation remains a distant objective

The group posted a mixed set of results, showing a net interest margin recovery but also subdued capital market revenues. Without the help of significant interest rate hikes, the return to decent profitability levels remains a distant perspective as confirmed by management’s 7% RoTE target for 2023.

Companies: Standard Chartered PLC

25 Feb 21

Does the renewables job properly!

EDP released its FY20 results yesterday, which were globally in line with expectations. The big news comes from today’s Strategic Update that set out the group’s strategy and investments for the coming years. EDP announced its ambition to become all green by 2030 and to provide itself with a significant capex plan to reach its ambitions. EDP does not do things by halves.

Companies: EDP - Energias de Portugal (EDP:ELI)EDP-Energias de Portugal SA (EDP:LIS)

25 Feb 21

Better than expected Q4 but FY20 ends in the red

Adecco’s Q4 results showed a sequential improvement from Q2 onwards and were above our and consensus expectations. Revenues showed signs of recovery and continued demand from e-commerce, healthcare, etc., whereas margins were managed through the continued focus on pricing and cost actions. The group’s financial position remained solid, which allowed it to propose a dividend of CHF2.50 and restart its buy-back programme amounting to €600m. However, the group did not provide a clear FY21 outlook. All eyes now on Q1.

Companies: Adecco Group AG

25 Feb 21

Another quarter of double-digit growth; full-year targets exceeded

Benefitting from sustained demand for COVID-19 testing solutions, bioMerieux reported another quarter of double-digit growth in Q4 20. Interestingly, the FY20 targets were exceeded, both on the sales and profitability front, and management has proposed a dividend of €0.62 per share (vs. FY18: €0.35). The FY21 guidance is also encouraging and growth is likely to be front-end loaded. bioMerieux is banking on its menu-expansion strategy to bolster growth for FilmArray once COVID-19 subsides, but some headwinds are lurking.

Companies: BioMerieux (BIM:EPA)bioMerieux SA (BIM:PAR)