Research Tree | Equity Research for Investors

Level the playing field with real-time Equity Research

Research Tree offers both private and institutional investors access to the latest UK investment research from over 35 Brokers and Research Providers, offering comprehensive coverage of small and mid-cap stocks.

The Equity Research Platform

Equity research, broker reports, target prices, and valuations on UK-listed companies in real-time.

Our platform learns which sectors, industries, and markets you're intersted in to help you discover new stocks.

17 Sep 20

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd - Improving trading – increasing cash receipts

FY20A results largely reflect a period prior to the Covid-19 lockdown, yet show Duke entering a more challenging FY21E with momentum. Yesterday's trading update demonstrated another notable rise in quarterly cash receipts for Q2/21, as royalty partner trading continues to improve. As some partners' forbearance measures will expire this month, Q3/21 receipts should continue this upwardly momentum. This opens the door to a return to cash dividends at some future point. Today, Duke also confirms it is now seeking new royalty partners, alongside follow-ons.

Companies: Duke Royalty

15 Sep 20

EUS growth drives record revenue and profit

The Interims are as flagged in the July update; global lockdowns helped End User Spend (EUS) over the platform rise by 59% YoY to £743m. Encouragingly, the H1 revenue growth closely matched that rise; increasing 50% YoY, to a record £4.8m. With operational gearing in the platform, group profitability continues to rise rapidly as revenue grows; H1 adj. EBITDA of £1.1m, more than double the whole of FY 2019 earnings. The major deals delayed in FY 2019 also arrived in H1, for Platform and Bango Marketplace; notably, the purchase of a controlling stake in Audiens by Korean tech giant, NHN, assisting management focus while retaining a 40% stake in a business set to be boosted by funding and IP from its new parent. Operating activities were cash positive and capex was more than covered by an NHN investment, lifting net cash to £4.2m. This is an exciting year, with deals signed in H1 expected to help EUS reach £2bn in 2020 and leaving BGO on track to meet our FY forecasts of strong revenue growth and material profitability.

Companies: Bango Plc

16 Sep 20

Interims show strong performance in core business

RBG Holdings had H1 revenues of £12.0m, up 17% against H1’19, of which £11.7m came from the Group’s law firm, RBL. On a LfL basis (excl. £2m of discretionary gains from litigation assets in H1’19), Group revenues were up c.46% YoY. EBITDA of £2.6m offers still-compelling margins of 22%. Transaction delays in Convex and a period of investment in LionFish held back ST performance for these higher margin divisions, yet pipelines remain healthy for Convex. Management is bullish on its ability in H2 to divest litigation assets in order to fund new investment, and in line with strategy. Continued uncertainty over timings around Convex transactions completing, and COVID headwinds, means we keep forecasts withdrawn, however suggest an intrinsic value of 90p is comfortably achievable for the shares.

Companies: RBG Holdings Plc

21 Sep 20

Interim results show resilience

Augean has reported interims to 30 June 2020. With the first half bearing the full impact of Covid-19, adjusted PBT decreased by 11% to £8.5m, which is in line with our expectation. With radioactive wastes, biomass for EfW and construction impacted by lockdown and depressed activity levels in its North Sea services, due to the low oil price, the results demonstrate the resilience of the Group and also the benefit of its key position in its markets with strategically located hazardous waste treatment and disposal facilities in the UK. Whilst the statement highlights that full year results are expected to be broadly in-line with market expectations, we have conservatively reduced forecasts. Nevertheless, with strong cash generation and sustained growth EV/EBITDA falls to 5.3x and 4.1x for FY21E and FY22E, a level that is substantially below sector constituents and transaction valuations.

Companies: Augean Plc

15 Sep 20

Strong H1 confirmed; strong cash conversion

Kape’s interims saw Group revenues rise +97% y/y to $59.0m (organic: +12%), driven by a 245% increase in Digital Privacy sales (+47% organic). Organic growth was stronger than anticipated in Digital Privacy, above N1Se estimates of 30%-40% as a function of strong end-user demand. CyberGhost (VPN) and Intego (end-point protection) subscriber bases grew +10% and +11% h/h respectively. The main takeaway is Kape’s inflection to positive FCF ($6.7m; H1’19: -$1.8m) alongside increased cash investment into customer acquisition (+60% y/y to $29m). We see meaningful cash flow margins (>25%) being delivered in the next 1-2 years, with £31m of FCF forecast for FY’21E generating a 6.3% FCF yield (peers offer 3.5%-4%). Putting Kape on a 4% FCF yield implies an intrinsic value of >£3/share.

Companies: Kape Technologies Plc

15 Sep 20

Consistent progress, relentless focus 2.4m subscriber base underscores growth potential

Kape has enjoyed a good first half of 2020 both in terms of operational progress and financial performance. Revenues increased 97% to $59.0 million (H1 2019: $29.9 million), a 12% increase on a pro-forma basis. The interim results reflect the Group’s continuing success in integrating its Private Internet Access (PIA) acquisition while growing subscriber numbers – now just shy of 2.4m in total - across the businesses. The focus on customer lifetime value is evident in the marketing spend and investment in new product development. Kape remains on track to meet previous guidance for the full year and expects to deliver synergies from the PIA deal at the top end of the mooted range. We believe that the Group has good revenue visibility and it continues to maintain a high level of user retention at 80%. We make no changes to estimates other than to reflect a higher amortisation charge. In our view, the interim results show that Kape continues to display the drive and capacity to meet the growing needs of consumers for digital privacy and security products in a rapidly evolving marketplace.

Companies: Kape Technologies Plc

18 Sep 20

Cenkos: Trinity Exploration Production P

Trinity has announced a strong set of interim results during a highly volatile period, with production increasing by 9% year-on-year to 3,282bopd (H1/19 3,007bopd). Operating break-even's post hedging in H1/20 reduced to US$22.3/bbl, a 15% year-on-year reduction and a 65% reduction since 2014. Similarly, a relentless drive to improve efficiencies and reduce costs has seen G&A and opex fall by 67% and 65% respectively since 2014. Despite the dramatic fall in oil prices, Trinity's strong production performance combined with its receipt of VAT receivables via a VAT Bond sale and the drawdown of a small working capital facility facilitated cash balances increasing by 43% to US$19.7m from YE2019. Trinity is well positioned to grow both organically and inorganically, with Trinity signing MoU's and submitting EOI's (in consortium with Cairn Energy Plc) to pursue new opportunities of scale. We set our price target a 31p/share, a 248% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.

Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc

21 Sep 20

H1 2020 Interim Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported robust interim results in the context of the H1 2020 backdrop; solid production and the company’s fundamentally low cost base meant that CAML remained profitable despite the sharp pullback in commodity prices during the period which led to a 17% YoY decline in revenue to US$70.8m. Consequently, EBITDA was down 25% YoY to US$42.5m despite a decline in unit costs of 6% YoY at Kounrad and 9% YoY at Sasa to US$0.48/lb and US$0.43/lb respectively which cushioned the impact of the weaker the top line. With no significant one offs in the period, EPS of US$0.10/sh. was 33% lower YoY.

Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc

22 Sep 20

Tremor - H1 ahead, strong Q3 update, upgraded FY20 forecasts

Tremor has announced H1 results ahead of expectations from the AGM trading update on 18 June, with revenue of $136.5m (previous range $131-135m) and EBITDA of $1.8m (previous range -$3m to -$6m). This reflects that since the trading update, Tremor has capitalised upon a rebound in advertising spend through the success of initiatives it launched in 2019, and the successful integration of Unruly, which is attracting new clients to Tremor’s platform and enabling the cross-selling of Tremor’s solutions into Unruly’s tier 1 client base. This has driven Tremor’s expected Q3 revenue to $97.5-103.5m ($66m in Q2), with Q3 adjusted EBITDA of c$11m (H1 $1.8m), and c$49m of Q3 revenue from key initiatives from $25m in Q2. This strong momentum leads us to upgrade our FY20 revenue by +9% to $330m from $304m, and upgrade our FY20 EBITDA to $25.0m from $15.9m. As visibility has also improved for FY21, we retire the previous FY21 forecasts that were our FY20 forecasts from before COVID-19 ($424m revenue and $75m EBITDA), and our new FY21 forecasts of $420m of revenue and $55m of EBITDA reflect the new gross margin mix of Tremor’s new initiatives with less fully-managed services. These forecasts demonstrate FY21 organic revenue growth of +27% and +120% at EBITDA, and as we explain in more depth from p9, this reflects Tremor’s differentiated platform capitalising on the growth in Connected TV (CTV) and digital video advertising. Overall, this means Tremor looks substantially undervalued on 9x FY20 EV/EBITDA or 4x NTM, and a NTM EFCF yield of 6% with FY20 net cash of $71m; vs peers on 15-17x EV/EBITDA with NTM EBITDA growth of 11-40% and EFCF yields of 1-4%.

Companies: Tremor International Ltd.

15 Sep 20

Reassuring trading update

Avingtrans has issued a brief trading update and confirmed that the Group’s preliminary results to 31st May 2020 will be published on 30th September. The trading update is reassuring, highlighting a Q1FY2021E order in-take in-line with management expectations. The statement also highlights two further contract wins in the nuclear sector for US$2.8m in South Korea to provide spare parts for essential water service pumps and a £1.5m UK contract for replacement valves. The previous update in early July has already confirmed that the Group expects to report revenue of £114m, EBITDA of at least £11.5m and net debt (excluding IFRS16 lease liabilities) of £7.5m, which is incorporated into our FY2020E forecasts. It would seem likely that the Group will wish to re-instate forward guidance at the time of the results and to this end we would expect management to indicate a year of solid progress in EBITDA for FY2021E. Over the first quarter the Group has demonstrated good resilience, operating at close to normal levels, with the exception of Oil & Gas (where there is fairly limited exposure) and HVAC activities at Ormandy, supported by exposure to multiple markets and a strong customer base that includes governments and their agents.

Companies: Avingtrans Plc

15 Sep 20

First strategic revamp

With the sale of the Singaporean operations for £1.6bn, the new CEO, Amanda Blanc, shows her intention to focus rapidly on its preferred markets (the UK, Ireland and Canada). The next candidate for sale is the French unit. This transaction is more complicated than the previous one, with the necessity to obtain the agreement of Afer, its key partner in France. With potential proceeds of £2.9bn, Aviva could reduce its debts significantly and allocate more capital to the UK bulk annuity business.

Companies: Aviva Plc

16 Sep 20

Cenkos: Inspiration Healthcare Group Plc - Final NHS ventilator update

Inspiration Healthcare has announced it has completed its final delivery of ventilators to the NHS in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, which were announced in March 2020. In total the company has now shipped ~£7m of ventilators, of which £5m relate to Inspiration Healthcare's direct contracts and ~£2m relate to orders to S.L.E., which was acquired in July of this year. These £7m of orders do not include revenues associated with the ventilator support service or ancillary orders received since March. We maintain our Buy recommendation.

Companies: Inspiration Healthcare Group Plc

17 Sep 20

WHI Morning Comment: Water Intelligence (WATR) - Interim results at upper end, standing out during Covid-19

WATR reports interim results this morning which reflect no slackening in the group's positive momentum, and which evidence again the effective business model. Adjusted PBT grew by a healthy 20% (statutory PBT growth of 33%), suggesting that the business continues to operate strongly and in such a way as to meet and exceed its targets again notwithstanding the challenges imposed on businesses generally by Covid. Within the overall growth momentum, both the franchise business and the Corporate division saw impressive margin gains, while franchise royalty succeeded in growing notwithstanding reacquisitions reducing the pool of franchises, a positive outcome. FY2020E forecasts are reaffirmed, although conservatively we leave them unchanged at this point. WATR is the only national US operator providing a leak detection service across the US, and this is a seriously large market – the insurance sector alone worth $US13bn p.a. above and beyond the traditional markets WATR has served. Now spanning clean and dirty water (Covid-19 opportunities), the company operates as an integrated entity and continues to generate new, value-added products. At current levels, we see significant upside to our 500p-plus fair value assessment, and note WATR's aspiration towards $US250m of underlying sales.

Companies: Water Intelligence Plc

17 Sep 20

Initiation of coverage

Water Intelligence (WI) operates in a sizable and expanding market. The Group provides minimally invasive water leak services and is building a distribution platform to leverage its installed and growing customer base. The company is a designated Essential Service Provider during CV19 and expects to see increasing demand for its products as the Green Economy gains traction. WI's management has a proven track record of developing new revenue streams and the Group's core services are uncorrelated to either the geopolitical or economic climate. Management is selectively reacquiring franchises and converting them to corporate-operated locations. This converts indirect revenue to a direct, higher-margin income stream under the same brand, and results in improved profitability and significant earnings accretion. We believe the shares trade at a substantial discount to fair value and initiate coverage with a target price of 452p. Our scenario analysis on page 20 demonstrates that the shares could rerate at closer to 600p based on the Group's current reacquisition strategy

Companies: Water Intelligence Plc

18 Sep 20

Growing long-term subscription revenues

Crimson Tide has reported a strong set of H1 results evidencing very strong sales momentum backed by long-term contracts and cash flow. H1 sales grew by 40% and EPS by 154%. Net cash has improved to £0.8m at June 2020 from nil at December 2019. The strategic focus on transportation and supermarkets is working well, partnerships are improving routes to market, and there is growing traction from investments in innovation. We have left our forecasts unchanged for now, but recognise positive pressure and have upgraded our target price from 3.1p to 4.3p. We reiterate our view that Crimson Tide’s valuation will be dictated by its ability to convert the significant opportunity rather than short-term metrics. H1 results show the group is nicely on track to do exactly that.

Companies: Crimson Tide Plc

22 Sep 20

Cenkos: 1pm Plc -- Positive signs emerging over recent months

FY20 results reflect a year of trading in-line with earlier expectations, until being significantly interrupted in Q4/20 by the impact of Covid-19. Despite this, 1pm remained profitable throughout, despite accepting forbearance requests and prudently lifting bad debt provisions for the future. Post-period, there has been a noticeable pick-up in trading as the UK economy recovers, which 1pm is currently positioning itself for. A P/TNAV of 0.55x materially undervalues 1pm, hence we remain at “Buy”.

Companies: 1pm Plc

22 Sep 20

Cenkos: Rosslyn Data Technologies Plc -- Positive EBITDA

Positive EBITDA in FY20A was a major milestone. Investment across the business is up and there is a clear strategy in place to deliver value for shareholders. The balance sheet is strong post the placing and the business is now self-sustaining. In light of this Rosslyn trades on an unwarranted discount to the software sector.

Companies: Rosslyn Data Technologies Plc

22 Sep 20

Oracle Power CEO explains delay of LOI for Thar Block VI project plan

22 Sep 20

WHI Morning Comment: Billington (BILN) - H1 results – a profitable start with room for cautious optimism

Billington provides structural steel and safety solutions to the construction industry. After record results in FY 2019, Billington's interim results to June 2020 reflect the anticipated disruption of Covid-19. However, the Group remained profitable in the period (revenue £32.8m, adjusted PBT £0.6m) and the balance sheet retained its significant cash backed strength. Further, although pricing pressure is still a significant feature in the market, as the announcement of £21m of orders yesterday demonstrated, there is still plenty of business to be won in less competitive segments. Our FY 2020E estimates remain suspended, but all other things being equal, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Billington could deliver a similar performance in H2 as reported in H1. The present order book is supportive of such a scenario. The outturn for FY 2021E is harder to determine, but there again, Billington is exposed to a number of verticals where investment continues and where competition is less pronounced. With its strong balance sheet likely a significant comfort to clients, the medium-term prospects for Billington, in our view, continue to be strong.

Companies: Billington Holdings Plc

22 Sep 20

WHI Morning Comment: Judges Scientific (JDG) - Interim Results – Creditable and profitable H1. No changes to FY estimates

Judges Scientific is focused on acquiring and developing companies in the scientific instrument sector. Given the backdrop of H1, and the global nature of Judges' customer base, we see this morning's results as a significant achievement when set against the backdrop of significant COVID related headwinds. Revenue decreased by 6.8% (organic -12%) to £37.4m (H1-19: £40.2m) which, after the sensible management of the cost base, yielded an adjusted pre-tax profit of £6.4m (H1-19 £8.4m), a 22% reduction, and adjusted fully diluted EPS of 82.5p (H1-19: 107.0p). However, reflecting a commitment to its progressive dividend policy, and confidence in the business, the interim DPS is increased by 10% to 16.5p. With respect to H2, COVID related business risks remain, none of which are unique to Judges. However, given the relative strength of H1 (albeit at some expense to the order book), management flag ‘cautious confidence' in achieving full year market expectations. As such, our FY 2020E adjusted PBT and EPS estimates are unchanged this morning.

Companies: Judges Scientific Plc

22 Sep 20

WHI First Light: Parity Group (PTY) - Profitable in H1 despite Covid; cash turnaround and new model generating business wins

PTY's results this morning are in line with indications given by the company on July 20th, when the company announced anticipated gross revenues of £30m and a “modest” adjusted pre-tax profit, in line with the adjusted PBTA of £0.06m published this morning, and a significantly reduced reported pre-tax loss. As previously announced, the company succeeded in moving from net debt (£1.2m pre lease liabilities) to net cash, £0.7m, at the half year end. Cost-savings have been significant at £4.2m gross, £2.4m net, opening the door to the significant transformation undertaken by the company and creating a new and robust underlying platform which has been stress-tested by Covid. As expected, net revenues (net fee income) have reduced on the back of the Scottish Government contract exit, which was low-margin and in run-off. The company expects to achieve a full-year profit equivalent to >£0.1m PBTA posted in FY2019A and a notable feature of the results is that no more non-underlying costs are expected going forward, leading to prospective upside both adjusted and unadjusted.

Companies: Parity Group Plc

22 Sep 20

Live Company's David Ciclitira says there's interest in its products through until 2023

22 Sep 20

Cooperation to support Amazon sidewalk

Announces a cooperation to support Amazon Sidewalks on BLE Slight positive, in our view, supporting BLE as important in smart home Not impacting our estimates

Companies: Nordic Semiconductor ASA

22 Sep 20

Hellenic Petroleum - Overcoming unprecedented uncertainties

Hellenic Petroleum experienced a weaker Q220 due to record-low benchmark margins. As a consequence of the unprecedented impacts of COVID-19, demand for global crude oil and oil products collapsed. As lockdown measures were imposed across Europe, lower economic activity severely affected travel and tourism markets in countries like Greece. Despite the current headwinds the industry is facing, Hellenic maintained a strong operating performance and was capable of minimising the impacts of COVID-19. This was possible due to its storage capacity and the flexibility of its refining system. We have updated our estimates and valuation to reflect Q220 results and the impact of COVID-19. Our updated valuation is down 3% to €6.81/share.

Companies: Hellenic Petroleum SA

22 Sep 20

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): All eyes on CPO-5

• As the industry adjusts to a ~US$40/bbl world, companies with Strong balance sheets such as GeoPark are returning to exploration and development drilling. • As production at Llanos 34 (GPRK WI 45%) continues to recover after temporary shut-ins in 2Q20 and following the resumption of drilling activities, the asset continues to be a source of reliable, stable free cash flow to fund future exploration and appraisal activities elsewhere. With this in mind, we see the adjacent CPO-5 block becoming a key area of focus in the next 18 months and the main reason behind the acquisition of AMERISUR in January 2020. • By YE20, GeoPark will drill two wells in the highly prospective CPO-5 block. This will include an imminent development/appraisal well in the Indico light oil field followed by an exploration well. The only existing well in the Indico field is still flowing naturally at >5 mbbl/d since first oil in December 2018. The implied very strong reservoir performance and the fact that the oil pool boundaries have not been encountered yet suggest the field offers production and reserves upside that could start to be unlocked with upcoming drilling. • The CPO-5 exploration well in 2020 will target the Aguila prospect (same play concept in the existing Indico and Mariposa fields). • In 2021, GeoPark could drill an additional 5-7 wells at CPO-5 comprising a combination of exploration, delineation and development wells. According to the latest CPR, 3-4 new Indico wells could add 7.5-12.5 mbbl/d gross production (2.5-4.2 mbbl/d net to GeoPark) in 1-2 years. The exploration program for 2021 will likely test the continuity of the Guadalupe play encountered on Llanos-34 into CPO-5. Other exploration well candidates for 2021 GeoPark holds a large exploration portfolio with meaningful exploration acreage surrounding its core Llanos-34 Block. On Llanos-34, there are a handful of exploration prospects plus some appraisal drilling opportunities on other relatively minor fields, some of which could be drilled in 2021. Exploration targets on the recently acquired Llanos-87, 123 and 124 blocks could be drilled within the next 18 months. Other likely catalysts in 2021 include 1-2 exploration wells in Ecuador, in blocks located close to the best fields of the prolific Oriente basin. This could open-up a new area of focus. Value and big exploration The share price trades at ~55% discount to our Core NAV of ~US$17. Overall there could be 350-700 mmboe gross prospective resources across the Llanos blocks (including CPO-5) that GeoPark is imminently starting to explore. Our target price of US$20 per share reflects our ReNAV. It represents ~150% upside to the current levels.

Companies: GeoPark Ltd.

22 Sep 20

Cumulatively nimble - welcome to Germany WIIT

Going abroad! First acquisition outside of Italy - Germany is a big market, 4x Italy WIIT acquired myLoc, part of ProSiebenSat group, a German provider of cloud, colocation services and managed hosting for enterprises and individuals with 2019 sales of EUR16.2m, EBITDA of EUR7.4 (46% margin) and EBIT of EUR4.2m (26%). WIIT paid EUR50m EV (6.8x EV/EBITDA, 11.9x EV/EBIT) which suggests c. 6% ROCE on 2019 numbers (of course WIIT paid for strong growth expected and synergy potential). myLoc targets 2021e sales of EUR19 and EBITDA of EUR8m (42% margin) which includes the investment costs for the additional sales people to pursue the cross selling. myLoc has 800 customers (excl Prosieben all representing a low single digit % on sales), 5 datacentres with 2k sqm available and 90% of sales are recurring. The seller, Prosieben, has stipulated a 5 year agreement worth EUR3.2m pa. The managing directors of myLoc will remain for at least 2 years. Germany is 4x the size of the Italian cloud market and WIIT will spend additional EUR2m to implement a top-notch Tier IV datacentre to raise its local profile. Leverage under control but further MandA deals may require a capital hike if done in the ST Financing was granted and with 2.75x ND/EBITDA covenant (excl. earn-outs, incl. treasury shares) and 1 year waiver at 3x, risks of breaching are limited (c 2.7x in 2020e). WIIT management admitted that if a further major deal will be pursued (France?) in the ST a capital hike is an option. EPS raised by 12% and 27% in 2020e and 2021e to incorporate the newly acquired entity We increased our EPS estimates as we include in our estimates the new acquisition of myLoc from Q4. The increase is reduced in 2021e due to higher costs for recruiting sales people. Valuation range increased to EUR182 and EUR213 still based on DCF and peers multiples With EV/EBIT multiple of WIIT and sector at 30x and 50x and the acquisition done at c. 12x the value accretion from...

Companies: WIIT SpA

22 Sep 20

Cenkos: Personal Group Holdings Plc -- Resilience through turbulent times

Interim results demonstrate YoY growth and a resilient outcome that has exceeded management's expectations from the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is testament to the degree of recurring revenue generated across the business. FY21 trading looks to be more challenging, as notably lower new insurance sales post-lockdown will translate into lower premium income. A number of organic opportunities are being worked on to fill the shortfall. Rising UK redundancies and their impact on policyholder retentions creates great uncertainty, hence our forecasts remain withdrawn and recommendation remains Under Review.

Companies: Personal Group Holdings Plc

22 Sep 20

Litigation Capital Management - FY20 Results – Scaling up with strong returns

Litigation Capital Management has announced FY20 results with gross profit up 7% to A$21.7m and PBT of A$9.2m, slightly behind expectations albeit the Group had already flagged that delays to 3 cases during the year would result in resolutions in FY21, thereby impacting FY20 results. That said, excellent strategic progress through the year and good news flow as well as increasing scale suggests more value to come. Reiterate buy

Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd.