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26 Nov 20

Boohoo Group Plc (BOO LN) - Actions not words

Boohoo has announced meaningful progress in its Agenda for Change Programme, to deliver long lasting change to its supply chain and business practices. Sir Brian Leveson PC has been appointed to provide independent oversight of the programme, with KPMG engaged to provide additional resource, expertise and independence, working alongside the Group’s internal responsible sourcing and compliance team, as well as with external supply chain audit specialists Bureau Veritas and Verisio. We believe the calibre of the appointments reflects the Group’s unwavering commitment to implementing in full, and with complete transparency, all recommendations of the Independent Review.

Companies: boohoo group Plc

30 Nov 20

Tremor - Accelerating momentum drives FY20 & FY21 upgrades

Tremor has announced in today’s update that its platform’s momentum has continued to accelerate since its last update on 22 October. Tremor now expects FY20 revenue and EBITDA to be in the range of $390-400m for revenue (from $340-360m), and $50-52m for EBITDA (from $30-36m). This leads us to upgrade our FY20 and FY21 revenue forecasts by +13% and +12% to $394m and $470m, and upgrade our FY20 and FY21 EBITDA by +54% and +12% to $51m and $62m. The upgrades reflect that Tremor’s differentiated platform is capitalising upon the rebound and structural shift in advertising spend towards digital video and connected TV, through the success of the initiatives it launched in 2019 and the successful integration of Unruly. It is also the third upgrade to our Tremor forecasts since COVID-19 impacted the advertising market and Tremor in Q2, and Tremor subsequently adopted a prudent approach to its FY20 guidance. We have mirrored this conservatism in our FY21 EBITDA of $62m, which compares with H2 20 EBITDA of $49m, and includes additional investment in R&D and new product releases with greater marketing spend, as Tremor looks to gain share within a market growing at c20% pa. We also highlight from p10 that Tremor is demonstrating the same trends and performance as its US peers Magnite and The Trade Desk, with each forecasted to see +15-35% organic revenue growth and +15-60% organic EBITDA growth in FY21, as they focus on expanding in connected TV. However, Tremor’s share price has only increased +22% since 1 October, while after Q3 results in November, Magnite and the Trade Desk have increased by +169% and +57%. Tremor is also trading at a vast discount to its US peers on all metrics, such as FY21 EV/EBITDA of 6x vs 32x and 129x, and at a discount to the finnCap Tech 40 on 14x with +9% EBITDA growth. As Tremor continues to deliver and exceed expectations, we do not expect that its current valuation will be sustainable due to market or external interest, and we upgrade our target price to 700p based on 20x FY21 EBITDA.

Companies: Tremor International Ltd.

25 Nov 20

D4T4 Solutions - Switch to recurring revenue builds a platform for growth

The H1 results are as announced in the October update; COVID delayed several new contracts until earlier this month, leaving H1 revenue at £5.1m. However, management remained comfortable with a FY sales forecast of £21.7m on the basis of a strong pipeline and the substantial tranche of annually renewed revenue billed each H2. Reassuringly, the new contracts have now been signed for both the Celebrus Customer Data Management (CDM) solution and the Celebrus Customer Data Platform (CDP), and they cover a range of verticals from financial services to automotive manufacture and ecommerce provision. With significant net cash, D4t4 is in a strong position for long-term sustainable growth on the back of rapidly growing global demand for CDP/CDM. It remains confident on prospects in new geographies (N America and APAC) and new use markets (fraud, risk analysis and healthcare) plus a high level of recurring revenue. Our forecasts and target price remain unchanged save for a tweak to cashflow and raised dividend expectation. We reiterate our 310p target price.

Companies: D4t4 Solutions plc

23 Nov 20

Rude Health - finnCap Life Sciences quarterly sector note

Oxford University and AstraZeneca announced the first interim analysis from the Phase III study of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, which was found to be 70% effective in preventing COVID-19. This follows similar announcements from Moderna, and Pfizer/BioNTech in the previous two weeks, and the caveats we mentioned at the time remain the same. While all of these results have been highly encouraging, we reiterate that they do not diminish the urgent need for COVID-19 treatments and testing, which will be required for years to come. We consider Synairgen, Avacta, genedrive, Omega Diagnostics and Open Orphan to offer good buying opportunities.

Companies: AVCT ODX SNG GDR ORPH

26 Nov 20

Litigation Capital Management:Initiation of Coverage

Litigation Capital Management (LCM) is an alternative asset manager specialising in disputes financing, with its main operations in Australia and the UK. The company provides funding for litigation in exchange for a share of any settlement and has built a strong track record of supporting winning c

Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd

27 Nov 20

Digital driven outperformance

Reach’s trading update highlights revenue growth tracking comfortably ahead of market expectations going into December. Digital sales, underpinned by strengthening customer engagement, has accelerated substantially to +16.2% y/y in the 5-months to 22 November (H1’20: -1.0%), and is strongly ahead of N1S H2 forecasts (+2.7% y/y). Print sales were in-line, with increased cross-promotion across Reach’s portfolio leading to stabilisation in HY y/y trends (H2 to date: -19.7%; H1: -20.1%). Management also report a ‘significant’ reduction in costs in-line with the Group’s transformation strategy, which combined with a higher Digital weighting, has pushed up AOP margins ‘materially’ on a sequential basis. As a function of this strong update, we upgrade FY’20E sales, AOP and adj FCF forecasts by 1%, 7% and 8% respectively. FY’21E FCF yield of 22% (pre-pension contributions) is materially ahead of global peers (4%-7%); a yield of 10% generates an intrinsic value of 310p/share.

Companies: Reach plc

24 Nov 20

Intercede - Interims: gaining momentum

Interims, in line with the October trading update and unchanged forecasts, follow a second (November) purchase order from the new US Department of State contract, highlighting momentum. The 5Cs that form management’s measure of strategic development have all generated positives: colleagues, with employee NPS rising, and no furloughs or paycuts; new & renewing customers, high-profile names and sectors; a broadening channel including generating new clients; code increasing with the addition of FIDO and increased reach through MyID Enterprise/ MyID Professional; and cash of £8.1m with £4.8m debt all in the form of in-the-money December 2021 convertibles. Strong 1H performance and cashflow derisks full-year expectations. Target raised to 125p (100p).

Companies: Intercede Group plc

24 Nov 20

Appreciate Group - Initiation Note

Appreciate is the UK's leading voucher, gift card, and e-code provider, working with brands from Iceland to Halfords to Boots. It sells its pre-paid products to corporates as well as directly to consumers. It also runs the UK's largest Christmas Savings scheme, having helped some 2.7m families put money aside for Christmas expenses over the years. In Appreciate, we see a business that's undergone significant change and modernisation since 2018. Under its highly competent and dynamic management team it has transformed from a Christmas savings business that physically produced hampers, to a pure play financial services business with material growth prospects in the longer term.

Companies: Appreciate Group plc

20 Nov 20

Cenkos: Venture Life Group Plc -- Maintaining the momentum

Venture Life has developed significant momentum through 2020, reflected in the strong share performance over the year. Building on this momentum, the company has announced it is conditionally raising £34m via an equity raise to help it secure additional M&A opportunities. At this time, Venture Life has identified three opportunities, which we estimate could deliver significant earnings accretion if all are completed. We have updated our forecasts to reflect the raise but at this time have left our underlying assumptions unchanged. We expect Venture Life to maintain the momentum it has developed, supported by the proposed raise and M&A opportunities; we re-iterate our Buy recommendation.

Companies: Venture Life Group Plc

25 Nov 20

IQE - Outperformance in both wireless and photonics

IQE has announced that the strong performance in H120, which resulted in record first-half revenue, has continued into the second half. It has updated FY20 revenue guidance from at least £165m to over £170m, with adjusted EBIT guidance remaining at the mid-single-digit million level. We have updated our FY20 and FY21 forecasts accordingly, giving adjusted PBT upgrades of 34% and 10% for FY20 and FY21 respectively.

Companies: IQE plc

27 Nov 20

Highly impressive H1 update

Gateley’s H1 update is highly impressive, confirming a year on year improvement in activity levels in September and October and a strong sense of optimism at the beginning of H2. The Platforms continue to drive new business, whilst operating margins have benefited from cost actions taken in response to the pandemic (H1 PBT will show growth year on year). In light of the confident tenor of the statement, we reintroduce headline forecasts this morning, assuming stable revenue this year - which would be a considerable achievement - with profits returning to pre-pandemic levels by FY23.

Companies: Gateley (Holdings) Plc

30 Nov 20

Omega Diagnostics - FY 2021 interims – three key value drivers

Interim results were in line with the 28 October trading update, reflecting the impact of the pandemic, with sales down 27% and LBITDA of £1.3m. However, c.10% LFL growth for Health & Nutrition (HN) in October and November is encouraging and points to long-term growth. Together with confirmation that first shipments against the initial 1m order for AbC-19 rapid antibody tests have taken place as well as first shipments of VISITECT CD4 Advanced Diseases tests to Africa, we expect a strong H2 (c.75% of FY sales), with potential upside driven by a currently poorly visible, yet anticipated long-term opportunity from its three key value drivers: Food Detective in China, VISITECT CD4 and COVID-19 lateral flow devices (LFDs). We leave our forecasts unchanged until we have further clarity on the unfolding COVID-19 opportunities. Whilst this implies c.£9.4m sales in H2, this is still eminently achievable given that supply has the ability to generate in excess of £9m of sales in Q4 FY 2021, should the demand materialise.

Companies: Omega Diagnostics Group PLC

23 Sep 20

Confirmation of stellar H1

LoopUp has announced a very strong H1 period, in line with the previous trading update and reflecting a number of months of exceptional performance. This is allowing the business to invest in the major identified new opportunity, to provide telephony within Microsoft Teams, where the early signs are extremely positive. We look forward to further detail on the Teams pipeline and sales levels over time.

Companies: LoopUp Group PLC

24 Nov 20

Contracts Win with Barrick Showcases Capital Ltd Growth Potential

Less than a fortnight after a major new contract announcement in West Africa, Capital has announced the expansion of its operations at Barrick Gold’s Bulyanhulu Gold Mine in Tanzania. The contracts include a five-year laboratory services contract for MSALABS, together with a two-year underground grade control drilling contract. Capital commenced operations at Bulyanhulu in February 2020, undertaking a deep hole delineation drilling program. The successful execution of this resulted in an expansion of services, with two underground rigs added to operations from May. The new contract will expand the underground fleet to four, utilising two rigs from the existing fleet and including the acquisition of a further two rigs.

Companies: Capital Limited

24 Nov 20

Robust H1, US SecPay driving growth

Eckoh’s fast growing US SecPay business and robust UK business model have minimised the impact of lockdowns with u/l H1 revs down just 3% yoy and profits flat. ECK reintroduces FY21 guidance, expecting H2 revenues comparable to H1 and FY21 AOP comparable to FY20. US SecPay is now a meaningful >30% group revs, growing 80% in H1 and with larger customers now re-engaging. We expect growth to continue in FY21 and beyond; the opportunity is multiples of current sales (FY21E $13m- +60% yoy). We similarly expect the cash cow UK business to continue to recover and return to c. 5% secular organic growth over time. It is especially continued success with US SecPay that is likely to lead to group FCF exceeding that of £5-6m achieved in FY20/19 over time and a FCF yield well above 5%. That’s attractive.

Companies: Eckoh plc

30 Nov 20

TMT Christmas Calendar – 2021 surprises

We set out below our ideas on the first 7 of 24 potential surprises for the year ahead as we enter the first week of December. The surprises are possible events that we think could change market perceptions of the shares, and not our base case view for 2021 on the technology, media and telecom companies we follow. As always, if you want to discuss the companies in more detail, please get in touch.

30 Nov 20

Q4 trading update: increased guidance

Expects Q4 revenue to exceed USD 15m (previous guidance at USD 14m) Organic growth is slightly higher than previous guidance Already reached its 400K paid seats target, now expects 420K+ year-end Minor positive estimate changes expected

Companies: KAHOOTME KAH KAHOOTME KHOTF

30 Nov 20

Q1 does more than just allay concerns

Hanseyachts reported better than expected figures for Q1 FY21, as both new orders and the order backlog registered record highs. Revenues and EBITDA were also better than expected compared to the previous year. Moreover, the outlook for the market appears to be improving and the group’s production capacity is already full when it comes to sailing & motor yachts as well as catamarans. The group’s liquidity position also remains solid should the need for it arise.

Companies: HanseYachts AG (0EN5:LON)HanseYachts AG (H9Y:ETR)

30 Nov 20

Pan African Resources expands investor base with OTCQX upgrade, reveals full-year highlights

30 Nov 20

Mutares – executive interview

30 Nov 20

Record - Making progress with strategy

Record has set itself the goal of generating greater growth and H121 showed some encouraging steps in this direction. The substantial new dynamic hedging mandate in the period was traditional business for the group, but there was also news of a new currency impact fund, which provides diversification, higher fee margins and the potential for significant development. The implementation of new IT systems is underway, and measures to develop and retain staff have been taken.

Companies: Record plc

30 Nov 20

ValiRx Plc - VAL201 Clinical Trial Full Data Results

30 Nov 20

Pac-man’s still hungry and will also grow organically

Worldline’s appetite for acquisitions is paying off. The group is consolidating at a fast pace and gaining further domination throughout the European continent while improving its margins. With a well diversified product mix, the company is present on two of the industry’s engines, thereby securing growing revenues. While we expect COVID-19 to have accelerated the digitalisation of consumers’ habits, we believe the economic recovery will also propel the company’s growth. Hence, we initiate coverage of the company with a Buy recommendation.

Companies: Worldline (WLN:EPA)Worldline SA (WLN:PAR)

30 Nov 20

Trading update indicates pick-up in Q3

Q3 sales -11.7% and EBITDA -7.5% y-o-y, better than H1/20 Mining activities in Guinea started, first shipment Jan/21 Expected FY EBITDA flat vs 2019, in line with ARCe

30 Nov 20

On the way to combining its fixed network with Open Fiber

The national plan to fibre up Italy as quickly as possible, with a reasonable number of retail players providing services to consumers, is moving slowly but surely. Last week, the EC gave the green light to TI’s FiberCop creation. We still believe that TI will have, in the end, the most significant market share in TV distribution in Italy and will also benefit by taking part of the margin of other providers if TI’s and Open Fiber’s networks merge.

Companies: Telecom Italia S.p.A.

30 Nov 20

Asseco Poland is proving that it is one of the best/promising Polish stocks

In 9M 20, Asseco Poland significantly increased its free cash flow yoy, while at the same time the share of sales from the most promising areas Cybersecurity, Cloud Solutions and Robotics was significantly above last year’s. We are confident that the dividend payout for 2020 will again be very satisfactory.

Companies: Asseco Poland S.A.

30 Nov 20

Planning granted for first private rental homes

Springfield Properties has been granted planning approval for its first private rental sector (PRS) development, a move which progresses Scotland’s only quoted housebuilder’s move into delivery of a third tenure choice, which, in our view, improves its cashflow and risk profile.

Companies: Springfield Properties PLC

30 Nov 20

WANdisco - $3m LiveData Migrator contract

WANdisco has announced a $3m initial contract with a major US telecoms company to migrate a 13PB on-premise Hadoop cluster to the Microsoft Azure cloud using its LiveData Migrator. Most of this will be recognised in 2020 but it also has an opportunity to migrate a further 30PB of data stored by the company in the coming years. We make no change to forecasts, as we believe WANdisco still needs to sign further deals to reach our FY20 estimate, but see the current acceleration in commercial activity as very encouraging.

Companies: WANdisco Plc

30 Nov 20

Trapped capital

ABN Amro released this morning its strategic plan for 2024. The plan gives some visibility regarding profitability as the Dutch bank is expecting an 8% ROE in 2024. A 10% ROE would be reachable in a normalising interest rates environment. Management is targeting a 13% Basel IV CET1 ratio, 200bp below its reported 15% CET1 ratio at the end of Q3 20. Any capital above this 15% level would be paid out as a share buy-backs.

Companies: ABN AMRO Bank NV Depositary receipts

30 Nov 20

SP Angel . Morning View

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Swedish Constitutional Committee urge swift resolution at Kallak | Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) – Sekaka acquisition completed | Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – Conditions satisfied for US$65m financing with Orion Mine Finance | Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV LN) –Independent expert determined Southern Gold interest worth $11.05m | Caledonia Mining* (CMCL LN) – Central Shaft completed on time and under budget | Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) – First copper assays from latest drilling at the Big One project in Queensland | Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – New agreements with Newcrest at Havieron and at Black Hills and Paterson Range East | IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – Board Change | Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – Grant-funding for rare-earth magnet recycling research | Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Orosur raises £4m | Petropavlovsk (POG LN) – Ex-Highland gold chief appointed as CEO

Companies: BEM BOD BMN BMV CCZ GGP IRR MKA OMI POG CMCL