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26 Nov 20

Boohoo Group Plc (BOO LN) - Actions not words

Boohoo has announced meaningful progress in its Agenda for Change Programme, to deliver long lasting change to its supply chain and business practices. Sir Brian Leveson PC has been appointed to provide independent oversight of the programme, with KPMG engaged to provide additional resource, expertise and independence, working alongside the Group’s internal responsible sourcing and compliance team, as well as with external supply chain audit specialists Bureau Veritas and Verisio. We believe the calibre of the appointments reflects the Group’s unwavering commitment to implementing in full, and with complete transparency, all recommendations of the Independent Review.

Companies: boohoo group Plc

20 Nov 20

Cenkos: Venture Life Group Plc -- Maintaining the momentum

Venture Life has developed significant momentum through 2020, reflected in the strong share performance over the year. Building on this momentum, the company has announced it is conditionally raising £34m via an equity raise to help it secure additional M&A opportunities. At this time, Venture Life has identified three opportunities, which we estimate could deliver significant earnings accretion if all are completed. We have updated our forecasts to reflect the raise but at this time have left our underlying assumptions unchanged. We expect Venture Life to maintain the momentum it has developed, supported by the proposed raise and M&A opportunities; we re-iterate our Buy recommendation.

Companies: Venture Life Group Plc

25 Nov 20

D4T4 Solutions - Switch to recurring revenue builds a platform for growth

The H1 results are as announced in the October update; COVID delayed several new contracts until earlier this month, leaving H1 revenue at £5.1m. However, management remained comfortable with a FY sales forecast of £21.7m on the basis of a strong pipeline and the substantial tranche of annually renewed revenue billed each H2. Reassuringly, the new contracts have now been signed for both the Celebrus Customer Data Management (CDM) solution and the Celebrus Customer Data Platform (CDP), and they cover a range of verticals from financial services to automotive manufacture and ecommerce provision. With significant net cash, D4t4 is in a strong position for long-term sustainable growth on the back of rapidly growing global demand for CDP/CDM. It remains confident on prospects in new geographies (N America and APAC) and new use markets (fraud, risk analysis and healthcare) plus a high level of recurring revenue. Our forecasts and target price remain unchanged save for a tweak to cashflow and raised dividend expectation. We reiterate our 310p target price.

Companies: D4t4 Solutions plc

26 Nov 20

Litigation Capital Management:Initiation of Coverage

Litigation Capital Management (LCM) is an alternative asset manager specialising in disputes financing, with its main operations in Australia and the UK. The company provides funding for litigation in exchange for a share of any settlement and has built a strong track record of supporting winning c

Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd

23 Nov 20

Rude Health - finnCap Life Sciences quarterly sector note

Oxford University and AstraZeneca announced the first interim analysis from the Phase III study of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, which was found to be 70% effective in preventing COVID-19. This follows similar announcements from Moderna, and Pfizer/BioNTech in the previous two weeks, and the caveats we mentioned at the time remain the same. While all of these results have been highly encouraging, we reiterate that they do not diminish the urgent need for COVID-19 treatments and testing, which will be required for years to come. We consider Synairgen, Avacta, genedrive, Omega Diagnostics and Open Orphan to offer good buying opportunities.

Companies: AVCT ODX SNG GDR ORPH

19 Nov 20

Somero Enterprises - Positive update – trading ahead of expectations

The group has released a positive trading update, signalling a strong H2 and performance ahead of expectations. The new guidance points to a 6.7% upgrade to revenues and a 10.5% upgrade to EBITDA. Cash generation has been notably strong, at about $26m, which will drive an increase in supplemental dividends with a dividend yield of 7.1%. We raise our TP from 255p to 285p, based on a target P/E of 14x, giving decent upside to the current 11.6x.

Companies: Somero Enterprises, Inc.

24 Nov 20

Intercede - Interims: gaining momentum

Interims, in line with the October trading update and unchanged forecasts, follow a second (November) purchase order from the new US Department of State contract, highlighting momentum. The 5Cs that form management’s measure of strategic development have all generated positives: colleagues, with employee NPS rising, and no furloughs or paycuts; new & renewing customers, high-profile names and sectors; a broadening channel including generating new clients; code increasing with the addition of FIDO and increased reach through MyID Enterprise/ MyID Professional; and cash of £8.1m with £4.8m debt all in the form of in-the-money December 2021 convertibles. Strong 1H performance and cashflow derisks full-year expectations. Target raised to 125p (100p).

Companies: Intercede Group plc

24 Nov 20

Appreciate Group - Initiation Note

Appreciate is the UK's leading voucher, gift card, and e-code provider, working with brands from Iceland to Halfords to Boots. It sells its pre-paid products to corporates as well as directly to consumers. It also runs the UK's largest Christmas Savings scheme, having helped some 2.7m families put money aside for Christmas expenses over the years. In Appreciate, we see a business that's undergone significant change and modernisation since 2018. Under its highly competent and dynamic management team it has transformed from a Christmas savings business that physically produced hampers, to a pure play financial services business with material growth prospects in the longer term.

Companies: Appreciate Group plc

25 Nov 20

IQE - Outperformance in both wireless and photonics

IQE has announced that the strong performance in H120, which resulted in record first-half revenue, has continued into the second half. It has updated FY20 revenue guidance from at least £165m to over £170m, with adjusted EBIT guidance remaining at the mid-single-digit million level. We have updated our FY20 and FY21 forecasts accordingly, giving adjusted PBT upgrades of 34% and 10% for FY20 and FY21 respectively.

Companies: IQE plc

23 Sep 20

Confirmation of stellar H1

LoopUp has announced a very strong H1 period, in line with the previous trading update and reflecting a number of months of exceptional performance. This is allowing the business to invest in the major identified new opportunity, to provide telephony within Microsoft Teams, where the early signs are extremely positive. We look forward to further detail on the Teams pipeline and sales levels over time.

Companies: LoopUp Group PLC

24 Nov 20

Robust H1, US SecPay driving growth

Eckoh’s fast growing US SecPay business and robust UK business model have minimised the impact of lockdowns with u/l H1 revs down just 3% yoy and profits flat. ECK reintroduces FY21 guidance, expecting H2 revenues comparable to H1 and FY21 AOP comparable to FY20. US SecPay is now a meaningful >30% group revs, growing 80% in H1 and with larger customers now re-engaging. We expect growth to continue in FY21 and beyond; the opportunity is multiples of current sales (FY21E $13m- +60% yoy). We similarly expect the cash cow UK business to continue to recover and return to c. 5% secular organic growth over time. It is especially continued success with US SecPay that is likely to lead to group FCF exceeding that of £5-6m achieved in FY20/19 over time and a FCF yield well above 5%. That’s attractive.

Companies: Eckoh plc

24 Nov 20

Contracts Win with Barrick Showcases Capital Ltd Growth Potential

Less than a fortnight after a major new contract announcement in West Africa, Capital has announced the expansion of its operations at Barrick Gold’s Bulyanhulu Gold Mine in Tanzania. The contracts include a five-year laboratory services contract for MSALABS, together with a two-year underground grade control drilling contract. Capital commenced operations at Bulyanhulu in February 2020, undertaking a deep hole delineation drilling program. The successful execution of this resulted in an expansion of services, with two underground rigs added to operations from May. The new contract will expand the underground fleet to four, utilising two rigs from the existing fleet and including the acquisition of a further two rigs.

Companies: Capital Limited

25 Nov 20

Cenkos: Calnex Solutions plc -- Interim results and forecast upgrade

Calnex Solutions has announced very strong maiden interim results, with H1/21 revenue up 37% to £7.7m and adjusted PBT up 90% to £2.3m. Calnex has firmly established a trusted reputation worldwide, launching multiple first to market telecoms and network testing solutions. The exponential growth of data creation and secular migration of industries to cloud computing along with the long-term transition of the telecoms industry to 5G is driving demand for high value test instrumentation. Given the strength of H1/21 reported today we have upgraded our revenue forecasts for FY21E and FY22E by 10.6% and 12.2% to £15.4m and £16.4m and increased forecast EPS up 24.1%. and 14.3% respectively. Calnex is accelerating its growth investment plans, ahead of our previous expectations, expanding both R&D and sales capacity to capture increased market share within a substantial and growing global market.

Companies: Calnex Solutions Plc

04 Nov 20

Cenkos: Calnex Solutions plc - Standing the test of time

Calnex Solutions is a leading provider of test and measurement hardware and software solutions that enable performance validation and standards conformance of critical infrastructure associated with telecoms and high-speed data networks. 5G network evolution is a significant, long-term driver of growth for the business along with the continued expansion of hyperscale datacentre enterprises and their increasing participation in telecoms infrastructure markets. Calnex has established a trusted reputation worldwide, launching multiple first to market testing solutions. We have initiated coverage with very conservative forecasts given the strong financial track record with historical revenue CAGR of over 27.7% between FY18 and FY20. Calnex is profitable, cash generative and entered FY21E with a record order backlog.

Companies: Calnex Solutions Plc

20 Nov 20

Trackwise Designs - £11m placing for new IHT site and scale up

The group has announced it has successfully raised £11m in an equity placing to help accelerate capex on a new IHT manufacturing site based on guaranteed minimum production volumes and ahead of anticipated customer orders. It is expecting a significant ramp up in production in FY21 following a multi-year £38m production order from a UK-based EV manufacturer. Strong progress is being made with its customer trials for the medical catheter market, which together with other expected new business requires additional capacity to be put in place.

Companies: Trackwise Designs Plc

27 Nov 20

Ten Point Plan

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ten-point plan for a green industrial revolution is clearly helpful for companies across the clean technology sector. We believe that support for more renewables and for more electric vehicles is largely factored in although charging support is helpful. However, we think there are three key additional details that further impact the industry.

27 Nov 20

Capital Access' Hot Off The Wires - The Day Ahead

Today's news & views, plus announcements from Capita, JD Wetherspoon, HarbourVest Global Private Equity, Walker Crips Group, Randall & Quilter*, Michelmersh Brick, LoopUp, Schroders British Opportunities Trust and Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust.

Companies: Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd.

27 Nov 20

Highly impressive H1 update

Gateley’s H1 update is highly impressive, confirming a year on year improvement in activity levels in September and October and a strong sense of optimism at the beginning of H2. The Platforms continue to drive new business, whilst operating margins have benefited from cost actions taken in response to the pandemic (H1 PBT will show growth year on year). In light of the confident tenor of the statement, we reintroduce headline forecasts this morning, assuming stable revenue this year - which would be a considerable achievement - with profits returning to pre-pandemic levels by FY23.

Companies: Gateley (Holdings) Plc

27 Nov 20

Digital driven outperformance

Reach’s trading update highlights revenue growth tracking comfortably ahead of market expectations going into December. Digital sales, underpinned by strengthening customer engagement, has accelerated substantially to +16.2% y/y in the 5-months to 22 November (H1’20: -1.0%), and is strongly ahead of N1S H2 forecasts (+2.7% y/y). Print sales were in-line, with increased cross-promotion across Reach’s portfolio leading to stabilisation in HY y/y trends (H2 to date: -19.7%; H1: -20.1%). Management also report a ‘significant’ reduction in costs in-line with the Group’s transformation strategy, which combined with a higher Digital weighting, has pushed up AOP margins ‘materially’ on a sequential basis. As a function of this strong update, we upgrade FY’20E sales, AOP and adj FCF forecasts by 1%, 7% and 8% respectively. FY’21E FCF yield of 22% (pre-pension contributions) is materially ahead of global peers (4%-7%); a yield of 10% generates an intrinsic value of 310p/share.

Companies: Reach plc

27 Nov 20

Outperformance continues in Q2; new linac launched

Despite the challenging market conditions, Elekta outperformed its rivals in Q2 – in both terms of revenue and order growth. Operating profitability reached a new high driven by a favourable product mix and strict cost management. Although Q3 could be negatively impacted due to the new wave of lockdowns, a new product launch, Harmony, which complements Unity, could enable Elekta to outgrow the market when a rival is undergoing an integration phase. The new reimbursement model could also be favourable for Elekta.

Companies: EKTAB EJXB EKTAB EKTAF

27 Nov 20

CMD: less upstream to deploy low-carbon investments

The company detailed its strategy after the net zero target announced a year ago. While 2021-22 is a focus around the balance sheet, 2023-25 will deliver growth. The dividend is cut to €0.60 per share and the total distribution could go back to €0.90 by 2023. The group sees an EBITDA of €8.2bn in 2025. The latter seems rich, with strong growth expected from customer and low-carbon business while the refining margin is expected to be $5.8/bbl.

Companies: Repsol SA

27 Nov 20

Paion - GA data enable an application for surgical use

The Remimazolam Phase III general anaesthesia (GA) trial in Europe has released initial data. Remimazolam was as effective as propofol in maintaining anaesthesia in major surgery so met the primary endpoint. More importantly, fewer hypotensive episodes were noted on average in the remimazolam arm; these are common and may lead to post-surgical morbidity. For at risk patients (ASA Class III or IV), this safety gain could be critical in justifying remimazolam’s price premium over propofol. In the US, remimazolam (ByFavo) is expected to be launched soon for procedural sedation (PS). Paion indicates that it has cash until H221. Our valuation remains €283m.

Companies: PAION AG

27 Nov 20

Competition for XF-73 moves aside, issue approved

One of the original assumptions in our forecast for Destiny’s first product, XF-73 for the prevention of post-surgical staphylococcal infections, was that it would share the US market with GlaxoSmithKline’s Bactroban Nasal - despite Bactroban Nasal not being approved for this indication. We also referenced Bactroban Nasal’s US price in estimating the price for XF73 in all markets. Bactroban Nasal has now been discontinued in the US, so we adjust some of our modelling for its removal. This has resulted in our valuation increasing.

Companies: Destiny Pharma Plc

27 Nov 20

LPG, Tankers, Songa Container, biofuel

LPG – Biggest jump in Baltic Index ever; FFAs edge higher Tankers – China data sinks all boats, for now Songa Container – Q3 in line Volkswagen to buy biofuel for European roro

27 Nov 20

Hurtigruten, Explorer II, Cabonline, ++

Hurtigruten Q3: continued earnings pressure Explorer II: overall improvement in credit metrics Cabonline Q3: Revenues -37%, cost cutting in focus Songa Container: Q3 in line Euroflorist Q3: Another strong quarter Acroud: WP to waive CoC put, allowing share issue to pay for M&A Valaris and Seadrill frontrunners for Total’s exploration program

27 Nov 20

Oil, VAL, PGS, REP, FREYR

Oil markets: Rally called to halt as market gauges multiple uncertainties Valaris/Seadrill: Frontrunners for Total’s exploration program in Brazil PGS enters a scheme of arrangement Repsol: Sets ambition of 15GW renewable capacity by 2030 Norwegian Government: Tenders for low carbon ferries from 2023 Freyr: Enters MoU with Scatec on ESS

27 Nov 20

WHI First Light: Scholium Group (SCHO) - H1 results as flagged – online lift in books and philately, cash ahead, £8.7m of stock strongly underpins

Reporting a modest adj. PBT loss of £158k, H1-21A results to 30 September are as guided in SCHO's October update, but with cash slightly better than expected at £348k (anticipated: c.£300k). P&L results are also better than the company originally expected, helped by a strong online performance by Shapero Rare Books and SCHO's philatelic business. Net cash at these levels represents a £67k / 24% jump on the full year, while YoY the business has reversed a small level of net debt into a healthy cash balance. Stock standing at close to £9m is a significant plus both in underpinning the value of the business and in feeding trading flows for SCHO as a leader in a fragmented, but consolidating, market, where in our opinion the opportunity to take market share has seldom been greater.

Companies: Scholium Group Plc

27 Nov 20

Auctus on Friday - 27/11/2020

GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$20.00: Divesting non-core asset in Brazil - GeoPark is selling its 10% non-operated working interest in the Manati gas field in Brazil to Gas Bridge for US$27 mm. We do not see much upside to the Brazilian asset (in terms of growing reserves or through exploration opportunities) and this divestment may allow GeoPark to reallocate resources to its core operations. We would rather see management remaining focused on deploying capital on higher return assets such as Colombia and Ecuador. Even after this week’s share price appreciation, our Core NAV continues to be 60% above the current share price. Our unrisked NAV for the 2021 drilling programme is ~US$9.00 per share, which represents ~90% of the current share price. Panoro Energy (PEN NO)c; Target price of NOK23.00: 2021 will be a transformational year - 2020 has been a difficult year for the oil and gas industry and 2021 is a turning point for Panoro. In Gabon, development activities at Ruche are expected to return to normal with gross production set to grow to 20 mbbl/d. The company will also appraise Hibiscus to test the 155 mmbbl upside case (=2x existing 2P reserves). The development of Hibiscus is expected to be sanctioned. Importantly, while the existing FPSO has a nominal oil processing capacity of 45-45 mbbl/d, processing expansion is possible which allows for a potential oil production plateau of 70 mbbl/d. We estimate the value of Panoro’s reserves in Dussafu at NOK10.40 per share. Derisking the contingent resources in Gabon could add ~NOK3 per share. We estimate that the upside at Hibiscus has a further unrisked NAV of ~NOK10 per share for a total unrisked NAV of NOK23 per share for the discovered and “to be appraised” volumes in Gabon. Overall, including Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia, we estimate the unrisked value of the 2021 activities at NOK30 per share; which represents 2.3x the share price. Our target price of NOK23 per share has been set close to our ReNAV. Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)c; Target price of £0.35: Low cost. Quickly scalable. High impact, quality exploration – Pharos is a £[67] mm market cap, ~12 mboe/d oil producer that acquired the Egyptian assets of Merlon in 2019. Under the stewardship of a blue-chip management team that turned Cairn Energy from a micro-cap into a successful E&P that returned US$4.5 bn to shareholders, Pharos has undergone a multi-faceted transformation, enhancing governance and rebalancing its asset portfolio. Given the recent macro challenges, this process appears to have gone unnoticed by many investors. Pharos now holds ~50 mmboe 2P reserves in Egypt and Vietnam. Vietnam provides stable cash flows even at low oil prices. Egypt production can be increased rapidly (up to x2.5 to 13 mbbl/d) with additional investment. Pharos also holds world class exploration assets in Israel, Egypt and Vietnam. With a healthy balance sheet (cash: ~US$38 mm, net debt:~US$36 mm), Pharos’ shares trade at EV/DACF multiples of 5,000 bbl/d, increasing production from the Shaikan field by~15%. FY20 gross production is expected to be at the upper end of the 35,000 – 36,000 bbl/d production guidance, with the field currently producing at ~39,000 bbl/d. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LEKOIL (LEK LN): Requisition from large shareholder to change the board of the company - LEKOIL has received a letter from Metallon, holding 15.4% of the company, requisitioning an extraordinary general meeting to vote on the replacement of the Chairman and the appointment of Michael Ajukwu, Thomas Richardson and George Maxwell as directors of the company. Orca Exploration (ORC.A/B CN): 3Q20 results - 3Q20 WI production in Tanzania was 60.9 mmcf/d. At the end of September, Orca held US$79.2 mmm in working capital including US$98.5 mm in cash and long-term debt of US$54.2 mm. Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Capital Market Day – 2020 production to date averages 75 mbbl/d with FY20 production guidance of 73-77 mbbl/d. Assuming an oil price of US$45/bbl in 2021 and US$55/bbl flat nominal from 2022 onwards, Tullow expects to generate US$7 bn of operating cashflow over the next 10 years with capex of US$2.7 bn. The first phase of investment will start in 2Q21 with the commencement of a multi-well drilling programme in Ghana. In Suriname, the prospective Goliathberg-Voltzberg North-1 well will spud in 1Q21. Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Positive licence update in Cameroon – The duration of the onshore Matanda licence has been extended by one year to December 2021. The gross unrisked prospective resources are now estimated at 1,196 bcf, up from 903 bcf previously. 19 gas prospects haven identified in shallower Tertiary-aged reservoirs, plus 7 prospects in deeper, Cretaceous-aged prospects. The Company believes the largest of these prospects has mean unrisked Prospective Resources of >65 bcf, with geological Chance of Success estimated at >40%.

Companies: VOG BPC ENQ GPRK JOG JYOGF TPC1 7M7 0GEA MAHAA PEN PHAR RBD REP SENX TLW

27 Nov 20

Morning Note – 27 November 2020

Companies: Gateley (Holdings) Plc (GTLY:LON)Xeros Technology Group Plc (XSG:LON)

27 Nov 20

YouGov - Bringing on the next generation

YouGov’s capital markets event cast the spotlight on the next generation of its client offering, focusing on YouGov Direct, YouGov Chat and YouGov Safe. All of these are already being rolled out commercially. They clearly show the direction of travel to enable the group to scale more effectively and efficiently. All are predicated on the YouGov member being the data owner and granting explicit permission for how that data is used. No new financial information was disclosed, and our forecasts are unchanged.

Companies: YouGov plc