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  • 26 Nov 20
Boohoo Group Plc (BOO LN) - Actions not words

Boohoo has announced meaningful progress in its Agenda for Change Programme, to deliver long lasting change to its supply chain and business practices. Sir Brian Leveson PC has been appointed to provide independent oversight of the programme, with KPMG engaged to provide additional resource, expertise and independence, working alongside the Group’s internal responsible sourcing and compliance team, as well as with external supply chain audit specialists Bureau Veritas and Verisio. We believe the calibre of the appointments reflects the Group’s unwavering commitment to implementing in full, and with complete transparency, all recommendations of the Independent Review.

Companies: boohoo group Plc
  • 30 Nov 20
Tremor - Accelerating momentum drives FY20 & FY21 upgrades

Tremor has announced in today’s update that its platform’s momentum has continued to accelerate since its last update on 22 October. Tremor now expects FY20 revenue and EBITDA to be in the range of $390-400m for revenue (from $340-360m), and $50-52m for EBITDA (from $30-36m). This leads us to upgrade our FY20 and FY21 revenue forecasts by +13% and +12% to $394m and $470m, and upgrade our FY20 and FY21 EBITDA by +54% and +12% to $51m and $62m. The upgrades reflect that Tremor’s differentiated platform is capitalising upon the rebound and structural shift in advertising spend towards digital video and connected TV, through the success of the initiatives it launched in 2019 and the successful integration of Unruly. It is also the third upgrade to our Tremor forecasts since COVID-19 impacted the advertising market and Tremor in Q2, and Tremor subsequently adopted a prudent approach to its FY20 guidance. We have mirrored this conservatism in our FY21 EBITDA of $62m, which compares with H2 20 EBITDA of $49m, and includes additional investment in R&D and new product releases with greater marketing spend, as Tremor looks to gain share within a market growing at c20% pa. We also highlight from p10 that Tremor is demonstrating the same trends and performance as its US peers Magnite and The Trade Desk, with each forecasted to see +15-35% organic revenue growth and +15-60% organic EBITDA growth in FY21, as they focus on expanding in connected TV. However, Tremor’s share price has only increased +22% since 1 October, while after Q3 results in November, Magnite and the Trade Desk have increased by +169% and +57%. Tremor is also trading at a vast discount to its US peers on all metrics, such as FY21 EV/EBITDA of 6x vs 32x and 129x, and at a discount to the finnCap Tech 40 on 14x with +9% EBITDA growth. As Tremor continues to deliver and exceed expectations, we do not expect that its current valuation will be sustainable due to market or external interest, and we upgrade our target price to 700p based on 20x FY21 EBITDA.

Companies: Tremor International Ltd.
  • 25 Nov 20
D4T4 Solutions - Switch to recurring revenue builds a platform for growth

The H1 results are as announced in the October update; COVID delayed several new contracts until earlier this month, leaving H1 revenue at £5.1m. However, management remained comfortable with a FY sales forecast of £21.7m on the basis of a strong pipeline and the substantial tranche of annually renewed revenue billed each H2. Reassuringly, the new contracts have now been signed for both the Celebrus Customer Data Management (CDM) solution and the Celebrus Customer Data Platform (CDP), and they cover a range of verticals from financial services to automotive manufacture and ecommerce provision. With significant net cash, D4t4 is in a strong position for long-term sustainable growth on the back of rapidly growing global demand for CDP/CDM. It remains confident on prospects in new geographies (N America and APAC) and new use markets (fraud, risk analysis and healthcare) plus a high level of recurring revenue. Our forecasts and target price remain unchanged save for a tweak to cashflow and raised dividend expectation. We reiterate our 310p target price.

Companies: D4t4 Solutions plc
  • 26 Nov 20
Litigation Capital Management:Initiation of Coverage

Litigation Capital Management (LCM) is an alternative asset manager specialising in disputes financing, with its main operations in Australia and the UK. The company provides funding for litigation in exchange for a share of any settlement and has built a strong track record of supporting winning c

Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd
  • 27 Nov 20
Digital driven outperformance

Reach’s trading update highlights revenue growth tracking comfortably ahead of market expectations going into December. Digital sales, underpinned by strengthening customer engagement, has accelerated substantially to +16.2% y/y in the 5-months to 22 November (H1’20: -1.0%), and is strongly ahead of N1S H2 forecasts (+2.7% y/y). Print sales were in-line, with increased cross-promotion across Reach’s portfolio leading to stabilisation in HY y/y trends (H2 to date: -19.7%; H1: -20.1%). Management also report a ‘significant’ reduction in costs in-line with the Group’s transformation strategy, which combined with a higher Digital weighting, has pushed up AOP margins ‘materially’ on a sequential basis. As a function of this strong update, we upgrade FY’20E sales, AOP and adj FCF forecasts by 1%, 7% and 8% respectively. FY’21E FCF yield of 22% (pre-pension contributions) is materially ahead of global peers (4%-7%); a yield of 10% generates an intrinsic value of 310p/share.

Companies: Reach plc
  • 02 Dec 20
Belvoir Group - Comfortably ahead

In a positive 10-month update Belvoir has detailed trading is ahead of its pre-COVID expectations. Gross profit is up +10% in the Property division and +11% in Financial Services. Overheads are now significantly below the original budget and management has decided to reimburse staff for salary sacrifices earlier in the year and repay the Government in full for COVID furlough monies and grants. Taking all this into account, we have upgraded our FY 2020E EPS by +4%. A further catch-up dividend of 1.3p will be paid alongside the final 2020 dividend and we forecast net debt of £4.5m at December 2020. The resilience of Belvoir’s franchise model has been proved and, in our view, highlights the long-term growth potential when markets return to more normal conditions.

Companies: Belvoir Group PLC
  • 02 Dec 20
Central Asia Metals: Valuation Upgrade

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) is our top pick for exposure to copper and following the recent operational and financial normalisation the shares have jumped, up 16% since our last note. Our copper price forecast assumptions implied that during Q4 2020 the price, at that point up 47% from March lows would pause. This has not come to pass, now up 60% to eight year highs of US$7,688/t, indicating a higher starting point in 2021F and we have upgraded our forecasts accordingly.

Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
  • 01 Dec 20
Upgrading on strong H1 outturn, maiden dividend

H1 has seen a clearer outlook for portfolio valuations which has allowed Mercia to recoup some of the reduction at the Finals. Cash earnings are better than expected as costs have remained lower for longer. A well-funded portfolio and £25m cash has prompted declaration of a maiden 0.1p interim dividend – a strong signal of confidence. Lower costs and increased asset values have prompted 30-45% upgrades to adj. EBITDA across the horizon. The shares are trading at a 32% discount to NAV, of which 17% is cash. This disregards all value for the asset management platform. A 10x EBITDA multiple ascribed to 3rd party asset management earnings plus NAV points to a c.40p/share intrinsic value, before further value creation.

Companies: Mercia Asset Management PLC
  • 25 Nov 20
IQE - Outperformance in both wireless and photonics

IQE has announced that the strong performance in H120, which resulted in record first-half revenue, has continued into the second half. It has updated FY20 revenue guidance from at least £165m to over £170m, with adjusted EBIT guidance remaining at the mid-single-digit million level. We have updated our FY20 and FY21 forecasts accordingly, giving adjusted PBT upgrades of 34% and 10% for FY20 and FY21 respectively.

Companies: IQE plc
  • 01 Dec 20
Well positioned for recovery

Tekmar’s H1 results were well flagged in the 30th October update. Revenue was slightly lower YoY at £15.2m (H1’20: £17.1m), with EBITDA of £0.8m (H1’20: £2.0m), reflecting the impact of COVID-19. Whilst there continues to be some short term disruption, the COVID-19 backdrop is improving and we believe Tekmar is well placed to return to growth as its markets recover. The balance sheet is robust, with net cash of £0.7m, and demand is strong, with the enquiry book increasing by 21% YoY to £225m. Industry forecasts point to significant long term structural growth in Tekmar’s end markets and new CEO Ally MacDonald is conducting a strategic review focused on positioning the Group to capitalise on this. N+1 Singer has been appointed joint broker and we will initiate coverage in due course. We believe the historic EV/EBITDA rating of 7.7x is undemanding and see the current share price as an attractive entry point given the scale of the growth opportunity and strong recovery prospects.

Companies: Tekmar Group Plc
  • 01 Dec 20
Cenkos: Equals Group Plc -- Positioning to produce free cash flow

Today's trading update demonstrates Equals producing robust FY20E revenues, as it rebounds steadily from a COVID-19 affected Q2/20. Material progress has been made on rightsizing costs, the benefits of which should be felt in FY21E. While our newly reissued forecasts expect a weaker profit delivery in H2/20E, we expect strong YoY EBITDA growth thereafter, as the group returns to double-digit revenue growth with a rationalised cost base and geared profit growth. Should these forecasts be met, we expect the current c2x EV/Sales multiple to move back towards Jan 20's pre-covid 4x multiple, hence we move back to “Buy”.

Companies: Equals Group Plc
  • 02 Dec 20
Capital Access' Hot Off The Wires - The Day Ahead

Today's news & views, plus announcements from TSCO, AVON, BGO, MERC, BOXE

Companies: Bango plc
  • 23 Sep 20
Confirmation of stellar H1

LoopUp has announced a very strong H1 period, in line with the previous trading update and reflecting a number of months of exceptional performance. This is allowing the business to invest in the major identified new opportunity, to provide telephony within Microsoft Teams, where the early signs are extremely positive. We look forward to further detail on the Teams pipeline and sales levels over time.

Companies: LoopUp Group PLC
  • 27 Nov 20
Highly impressive H1 update

Gateley’s H1 update is highly impressive, confirming a year on year improvement in activity levels in September and October and a strong sense of optimism at the beginning of H2. The Platforms continue to drive new business, whilst operating margins have benefited from cost actions taken in response to the pandemic (H1 PBT will show growth year on year). In light of the confident tenor of the statement, we reintroduce headline forecasts this morning, assuming stable revenue this year - which would be a considerable achievement - with profits returning to pre-pandemic levels by FY23.

Companies: Gateley (Holdings) Plc
  • 30 Nov 20
Omega Diagnostics - FY 2021 interims – three key value drivers

Interim results were in line with the 28 October trading update, reflecting the impact of the pandemic, with sales down 27% and LBITDA of £1.3m. However, c.10% LFL growth for Health & Nutrition (HN) in October and November is encouraging and points to long-term growth. Together with confirmation that first shipments against the initial 1m order for AbC-19 rapid antibody tests have taken place as well as first shipments of VISITECT CD4 Advanced Diseases tests to Africa, we expect a strong H2 (c.75% of FY sales), with potential upside driven by a currently poorly visible, yet anticipated long-term opportunity from its three key value drivers: Food Detective in China, VISITECT CD4 and COVID-19 lateral flow devices (LFDs). We leave our forecasts unchanged until we have further clarity on the unfolding COVID-19 opportunities. Whilst this implies c.£9.4m sales in H2, this is still eminently achievable given that supply has the ability to generate in excess of £9m of sales in Q4 FY 2021, should the demand materialise.

Companies: Omega Diagnostics Group PLC
  • 02 Dec 20
Central Asia Metals: Valuation Upgrade

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) is our top pick for exposure to copper and following the recent operational and financial normalisation the shares have jumped, up 16% since our last note. Our copper price forecast assumptions implied that during Q4 2020 the price, at that point up 47% from March lows would pause. This has not come to pass, now up 60% to eight year highs of US$7,688/t, indicating a higher starting point in 2021F and we have upgraded our forecasts accordingly.

Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
  • 02 Dec 20
Securities Trust of Scotland - The Trojan horse

Securities Trust of Scotland (STS) has had an eventful 2020. Following a competitive selection process, the board appointed Troy Asset Management (Troy AM) as investment manager in September, having served protective notice on Martin Currie in June, following the resignation of former manager Mark Whitehead. The trust is retaining its combined income and long-term capital growth investment objective, while adding a sustainability twist. STS’s board has reset the dividend to what it believes to be a resilient level of 5.5p per share. There will no longer be income derived from writing options, and the board aims to steadily grow the dividend from the set level. Troy AM as a house has an absolute return mindset, so capital preservation is equally important within the revised mandate as income and capital growth at a sustainable pace.

Companies: Securities Trust Of Scotland
  • 02 Dec 20
Sirius Real Estate 'more than just running a property estate' they also offer 'space as a service'
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  • 02 Dec 20
Sirius Real Estate focuses on "space as service" offer rather than "just running a property estate"
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  • 02 Dec 20
Kazia Therapeutics - Phase IIa shows good safety, consistent efficacy

Kazia presented the results from a new interim data analysis of its ongoing Phase IIa study of paxalisib in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). The data were consistent with previous data and showed progression-free survival (PFS) of 8.4 months and overall survival (OS) of 17.5 months. Importantly, Kazia also published some of the first safety data at the full 60mg dose, which show an attractive profile compared to other members of this class.

Companies: Kazia Therapeutics Ltd
  • 02 Dec 20
Osirium Technologies - H2 order intake stronger than expected

Osirium has announced a new customer in the telecoms sector, won in collaboration with partner Infradata. The three-year contract uses the full privileged access management (PAM) suite, including Osirium’s unique workflow automation technology. The company has also confirmed that bookings for FY20 are likely to be ahead of consensus expectations. We maintain our forecasts pending the year-end trading update in January, when the scale of bookings upside will be clearer.

Companies: Osirium Technologies Plc
  • 02 Dec 20
Savannah Resources' on right course to receive regulatory approval at Mina do Barroso
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  • 02 Dec 20
WANdisco - Integration of LiveData Migrator at IBM

WANdisco has announced that its LiveData Migrator product will be integrated into IBM’s Big Replicate. This extends its existing relationship with IBM, and IBM’s decision to integrate LiveData Migrator follows similar moves by both Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure recently. Those moves have seen commercial activity accelerate in the past few months, with more expected in 2021. No comment on the potential commercial impact of this announcement is provided, but we continue to view the current momentum (see $3m LiveData Migrator contract) as very encouraging.

Companies: WANdisco Plc
  • 02 Dec 20
Checkit - Smarter operations management

Checkit has emerged from a period of corporate activity as a pure-play business focused on driving the adoption of its connected SaaS software, in particular its workflow management application. Checkit’s software is designed to enable smarter operations management, exploiting Internet of Things technology to connect people, processes and assets. With a proven ability to sign up blue-chip customers across a number of target verticals, growth in recurring revenues and an expanding customer base should help to close the valuation discount to software peers.

Companies: ECKTF CKT EKC

  • 02 Dec 20
United Oil & Gas 'look forward to drilling well' at the Abu Sennan project in Egypt
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  • 02 Dec 20
United Oil & Gas looks forward to drilling at the Abu Sennan project in Egypt
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  • 02 Dec 20
Auris Medical Holding - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Auris Medical Holding (EARS). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Companies: Auris Medical Holding Ltd (EARS:NYSE)Auris Medical Holding Ltd. (EARS:NAS)
  • 02 Dec 20
Scotgold Resources says 'all the work has paid off' after celebrating first gold pour at Cononish
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  • 02 Dec 20
Belvoir Group says to achieve results ahead of expectations 'is absolutely phenomenal'
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  • 02 Dec 20
Belvoir Group says to achieve results ahead of expectations is "absolutely phenomenal"
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  • 26 Sep 19
Volex PLC 'a resilient, diversified business' delivering strong cashflow
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  • 07 Jan 20
Volex PLC Investor Presentatiion
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  • 30 Jan 20
Equals Group PLC chief 'phenomenally bullish' about prospects as revenues rise 20%
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  • 19 May 17
Leading UK fund manager, Gervais Williams, discusses investing, his outlook and two companies he's excited about
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  • 21 Oct 19
Avacta Group PLC boss sees a huge opportunity with new version of cancer treatment
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  • 01 Oct 20
Immotion Group launch at-home, educational, fun family product 'Let's Explore Oceans'
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  • 21 Mar 18
Bitesize briefing – Vermillion Energy
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  • 23 Jan 20
Executive interview - Sureserve
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  • 30 May 18
Executive interview - Banca Sistema
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  • 18 Nov 19
CentralNic's acquisition of Team Internet to be 'significantly earnings enhancing'
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  • 13 Jul 15
Executive Interview - Cooks Global Foods
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  • 06 Feb 20
Morning Report: Touchstone Exploration confirms potential of its Cacadura-1 well
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  • 07 Feb 20
Morning Report: Novacyt reports 'unprecedented interest' in its coronavirus diagnostic
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  • 09 Oct 18
Arena Events Group plc Investor Overview
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  • 13 Feb 20
Futura Medical kicks off process for its ED gel to be approved as medical device
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