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14 May 19

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd - Capitalising on more favourable terms

Duke has agreed modifications to the terms of three royalty agreements from the Capital Step acquisition. The effect is to unlock a minimum of £3.7m in additional revenues over the next 5 years. As a result, Capital Step's future revenue is expected to increase by 25%+ at no additional cost. This realises a key synergy from the Capital Step deal.

Companies: Duke Royalty

17 May 19

LIBERUM: Staffline* - Unscheduled statement: estimates reduced

We are reducing 2019 and 2020 FD EPS by 46% and 17%. We increase FY net debt from £52m to £85m (net debt /EBITDA of 3.0x) for FY 2019.

Companies: Staffline Group

03 May 19

Burford Capital - Time to Top Up

We believe recent share price weakness presents an opportunity to enter the market leading litigation funder at an attractive valuation. Current market concerns surrounding an overstated ROIC and aggressive fair value accounting are unfounded, in our view. We reiterate our Buy rating and 2,300p price target.

Companies: Burford Capital

17 May 19

Interim results – another beat

H1 Revenue is ahead of our not long ago increased expectation driving a better profit result. Cash is also £10m ahead. The business has good momentum and despite the ever present spectre of Brexit there is still significant scope for us to prudently raise revenue, EBITDA and EPS estimates. Acquisitions integrations and performances are on plan and the online advertising technology changes in place to benefit. The shares have re-rated again in line with the changing fundamentals. We see a path to 20x EBITDA leaving significant upside potential without the need for further upgrades.

Companies: Future

15 May 19

Strong H1 performance, underlying upgrade

Sanderson has delivered interim results in line with the 15 April update, with group revenue increasing 18% and adjusted operating profit up 34%. While there is still a note of caution in the outlook, good revenue visibility and healthy sales prospects underpin management’s confidence in further progress in H2. We have revisited our forecasts to reflect further improvement in underlying performance, the acquisition of Gould Hall and potential IFRS 15 impact. This results in unchanged earnings expectations in FY19 and 2% enhancement in FY20/FY21. A FY 2019 EV/EBITDA of 10.2x and P/E of 14.2x suggests further upside given positive underlying momentum.

Companies: Sanderson Group

13 May 19

FY18 ahead of expectations

CentralNic has delivered a solid set of FY18 results this morning that are 3.8% ahead of our forecasts and up 66% YoY at the adj. EBITDA level (excluding the one off domain name sales business discontinued in 2017). This has been a transformative year for the group following a number of acquisitions including KeyDrive which effectively doubled the size of the group and significantly improved earnings quality. Recurring revenues are now at 90% and cash conversion in 2018A approaching 100%, highlighting this quality. We leave trading assumptions unchanged for 2019E and 2020E but update our working capital assumptions to reflect the cash outperformance and negative working capital cycle in the business. We now expect net debt at the end of 2019E of £2.9m growing to £3.0m in 2020E. At the current share price, the group trades on a 2019E EV/EBITDA of 5.9x and a P/E of 11.7x with a FCF yield of 7.6% based on 2019E forecasts.

Companies: Centralnic Group

15 May 19

Strategic acquisition expands software strategy

Elektron Technology has announced the acquisition of Next Control Systems Ltd (“Next”), a leader in high-end service based temperature monitoring in healthcare and life-sciences with customers including the NHS. The net £8.8m (gross: £10.5m) cash acquisition adds significant scale to the technology segment, and is strategically important for Checkit, diversifying the customer base, offering access to new verticals, and extending Checkit’s service range with complementary IP. The transaction was undertaken at a net multiple of 6.6x EV/EBITDA, and adds over £10m of revenues, 57% of which are annual repeating (Next FY’18 sales: £10.7m; Checkit: £0.5m). The deal is earnings accretive from the acquisition date, with Next having generated £1.2m of operating profit during FY’18 (December YE). The acquisition announcement has been issued alongside a Q1 trading update highlighting strong 17% y/y revenue growth for the group. Whilst management expect sales growth to moderate in Q2, H1 sales are still expected to be “significantly ahead of last year’s comparable”. As a function of the acquisition, we raise our FY’20 group revenue forecast by 18% to incorporate 8.5 months of Next, with adjusted operating profit rising 13% (ex. restructuring costs).

Companies: Elektron Technology

14 May 19

Well positioned for growth

Beeks Financial Cloud Group (“Beeks”) provides scalable, cloudbased ultra-low latency connectivity and infrastructure services for the automated trading of all key financial asset classes. Founded in 2010, in our view the business has a strong track record of growth and profitability and enjoys a solid financial position with high levels of recurring revenue and positive monthly cash generation. This has all been delivered while investing in the platform - the benefits of which have been demonstrated in the impressive revenue growth reported over recent periods. The experienced management team has positioned the Group well to benefit from the growth in its chosen markets.

Companies: Beeks Financial Cloud

15 May 19

Taking Checkit to the ‘Next’ level

Disruption may be the most over-hyped word in the Tech lexicon, yet it is reshaping almost every walk of life. Even routine tasks - from cleaning restaurants, hospitals, food factories and public toilets, to maintaining schools, shops and leisure facilities - have been transformed by the ‘digital revolution’.

Companies: Elektron Technology

11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

17 May 19

Upgrades to forecasts, release of FY22E numbers

Following FY19A results last week, we upgrade FY20E and FY21E forecasts to reflect an increase in business momentum. We increase FY20E revenues by 3.0% to £48.6m, and adjusted PBT 6.7% to £5.6m. For FY21E we nudge up revenues by 1.3% albeit keep earnings broadly flat. Our newly released FY22E forecasts expect £62.3m of revenues and £7.2m Adj. PBT. We increase our PT to 520p from 460p (set by DCF) on updated forecasts, yet remain Neutral.

Companies: Keystone Law

14 May 19

Is the dividend cut a buy signal?

Vodafone has released its annual results. Although there was not much new on the operational side, the dividend was cut to €0.09, as was unfortunately expected (but it was probably the right thing to do). This corresponds to 6% of yesterday’s stock price (vs 10% previously). The major telcos, offering a 4.5-5.5% yield, lend it some upside if the market has confidence, like us, in the sustainability of the dividend. We maitain our Buy on the stock.

Companies: Vodafone Group

13 May 19

Cenkos: Angling Direct Plc - Exceptional Growth

FY19A has been a transformational year for Angling Direct as they continue to grow their business both in the UK and abroad. This set of strong numbers solidifies their position as the retailer of choice for anglers. We believe the Group has a sustainable competitive advantage through the loyalty of its niche customer base and is now able to improve margins through cost led initiatives and its increased pricing power. Buy

Companies: Angling Direct

14 May 19

Understanding the deepest discounts

At Hardman and Co, we try to answer the questions of why to invest in a company and what the risks are in doing so. For many investors, simply having a deep discount to NAV is a good enough answer to the first question. However, investors need to appreciate the risks and, in particular, the reasons why the shares are at a discount. Having understood those risks, investors need to be convinced that there is a catalyst for change on the part of the manager and how long (if at all) it will take for market sentiment to reflect this in a lower discount. In this report, we examine the companies with the largest discounts and review those very issues.

Companies: ADAM BC12 BGHL CGI HAN JZCP LMS MPO MVI MHN NSI NAS OCI PSHD RSE SIHL TFG TPOU UTL VIN ELTA ELX

15 May 19

LIBERUM: Crest Nicholson* - Resilient trading

Crest Nicholson has announced that trading has been resilient in the six months to April 2019, with a reservation rate of 0.78 units per site per week, which is the same as achieved a year ago. The statement also shows that management has delivered on the strategy of turning land assets more quickly, which is demonstrated by a £41m reduction in net debt compared to last year as well as an acceleration in revenues from land sales, JV and commercial activity.

Companies: Crest Nicholson

20 May 19

Suffering from lower airfares

Like its European competitors, the lower airfares resulting from overcapacity and higher fuel costs have heavily weighed on Ryanair’s profitability. The FY19 profit has slid to the lowest level in four years. Based on the unfavourable trading environment, management sees profit in the fiscal year 2020 to be in a range of €750-950m with “zero H2 visibility”, which is rather underwhelming.

Companies: Ryanair Holdings

20 May 19

Iofina - Embarking on the next growth phase

Iofina is embarking on its next growth phase, seeking to raise up to £7.5m via a placing, subscription and open offer to allow it to roll out its next iodine plant, develop new products and strengthen its balance sheet. In addition, Southern Rock has agreed to convert 75% of its $5.6m debt to equity, which when combined with the equity raise will materially reduce the company’s debt burden and put it in a strong position to benefit from rising iodine prices.

Companies: Iofina

20 May 19

BioPorto Diagnostics - Paediatric NGAL Test submitted with breakthrough

BioPorto announced that it had submitted an application to the FDA for the paediatric NGAL Test. The application was specifically for the risk assessment of acute kidney injury in children under the age of 21. The application was submitted with breakthrough designation, which we consider very encouraging. The designation shortens the statutory review time to 45 days (from 90) and provides that a portion of data needed be provided after marketing clearance.

Companies: BioPorto

20 May 19

OpGen - First 510(k) filed with the FDA

OpGen has announced that it has filed for 510(k) clearance of its Acuitas AMR Gene Panel test in bacterial isolates with the FDA, with clearance expected by the end of the year. The company continues to expect to file a follow-on De Novo 510(k) submission in Q419 for approval of the Acuitas AMR Gene Panel test in urine samples, with another De Novo 510(k) submission for the Acuitas Lighthouse software soon thereafter or at approximately the same time.

20 May 19

Q1 brought a major relief

MMK embarked 2019 on a good note, especially after a challenging Q4 18. Both divisions witnessed varying operating improvements. While management guided for markets to remain unpredictable and competitive, its sustained focus on business optimisation should render the much-needed cushion. Moreover, a strong balance sheet gives ample headroom to consider attractively-priced growth opportunities, whenever they (like TANN) come to the fore.

Companies: Mayr-Melnhof Karton

20 May 19

ReNeuron Group - Year-end update highlights transaction potential

ReNeuron’s year-end update summarised its recent clinical progress in the human retinal progenitor cell (hRPC) programme in retinitis pigmentosa (RP), which has become the focus for investors, and a slight delay to its CTX programme for stroke disability. The announced £26.4m cash position was slightly higher than our prior YE19 forecast of £25.7m and will help ReNeuron’s position in any further partnering discussions.

Companies: Reneuron Group

20 May 19

Cenkos: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd - Full Steam Ahead

Falcon Oil & Gas is an international oil and gas company focussed on the acquisition, exploration and appraisal of unconventional oil and gas assets. Falcon has a 30% interest in three exploration permits in the Beetaloo Sub-basin, in the Northern Territories (NT), Australia - covering 4.6million gross acres and estimated to contain 496 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of original gas in place (OGIP) within the Middle Velkerri B dry gas shale play. As part of a transformational farm out to Origin Energy in 2014, the Company carries up to A$113m (US$80m) for the costs of the upcoming Stage 2 and 3 work programme to drill and hydraulically fracture stimulate four further horizontal wells and evaluate the potential of the Kyalla and Velkerri liquid plays before confirming commercial production flow rates in the most prospective play(s). On Friday, the Company conditionally raised gross proceeds of cUS$9m (c£7m) to primarily fund Falcon's share of the next cUS$100m of capital expenditure on the Beetaloo work programme and its ongoing G&A. By the end of the Stage 3 work programme, a total of US$300m would have been spent by Falcon and its partners in determining the commerciality of the Beetaloo. Through its transformational farm-out deals with Hess and Origin, we estimate Falcon's share of this gross cost to be approximately US$15m, or 5% of the total capex to date for its 30% working interest. Prior to development we would expect Falcon to monetise its interest and exit the play. Given the multi-TCF potential, strategic location and multiple commercialisation options, we believe Falcon offers early entry to a world-class play with potential upside far greater than any of its peers. We initiate coverage with a price target of 41p and a BUY recommendation.

Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas

20 May 19

Executive interview - Utilico Emerging Markets

20 May 19

Euromoney Institutional Investor - Fully fledged FTSE 250

Euromoney’s H119 results show the positive impact of management’s strategy, particularly in Pricing, Data and Management Intelligence (PDMI), where underlying subscription revenues grew 8%. Challenges remain in Asset Management and we have lowered our group revenue and earnings FY19e and FY20e forecasts by 6% and 5% respectively. The DMGT share distribution has ‘normalised’ the register and ERM now trades as a fully independent FTSE 250 company. With the liquidity constraint lifted, the rating better reflects ERM’s attractive cash flow and high quality earnings.

Companies: Euromoney Institutional Investor

20 May 19

Cenkos: Collagen Solutions Plc - Strategic investor vote of confidence

Collagen Solutions has announced it has received a strategic investment of £4.2m from the private US company, Rosen's Diversified Inc (RDI). The company will increase the raise to ~£6.0m through a proposed equity placing and open offer. The associated shares will be issued at a price of 5.0p. We believe this investment supports the growth we see developing in the company and significantly de-risks the near-term cash position. Following the recent positive trading statement, we have upgraded our FY19E forecasts and introduce new numbers out to FY21E. The momentum we see in the company supports our forecasts and Buy recommendation.

Companies: Collagen Solutions

20 May 19

Decent Q2 results

Siemens remains confident of its overall industrial businesses and, notably, its short-cycle businesses. We believe that the focus was not really on these results which came in broadly in line with expectations, though somewhat above on the bottom line, and a 2019 outlook that was confirmed, but more on what was announced during the CMD. Please look at our CMD feedback comments for further details.

Companies: Siemens

20 May 19

Clear strategy and good ambitions

Siemens announced on 7 May ahead of its CMD that it will spin off its Power Gas division, including the transfer of its 59% SGRE stake into the NewCo, which is expected to be listed in September 2020. The announcement makes sense, and we consider it should reduce the conglomerate discount as Siemens will focus on Industrial Core business (Digital Industries and Smart Infrastructure). All in all, the strategy is clear and the targets are ambitious. Siemens is on the right track.

Companies: Siemens

20 May 19

Morning Note – 20 May 2019

Companies: Allergy Therapeutics

20 May 19

LIBERUM: City Pub Group* - Momentum continues, Aragon House opens next week

City Pub sales growth momentum continues with sales up 35% YTD (19 weeks to 12 May 2019). The Hoste, Burnham Market, (acquired in April for c.£9m) is up and running, and the long-awaited development of Aragon House, Parsons Green, is due to fully open to the public next week.

Companies: City Pub Group

20 May 19

2G Energy - Enabling the energy revolution

2G Energy continues to diversify its activities by expanding export markets and developing service revenues so that it is less exposed to changes in the regulatory environment for renewables and CHP in Germany. This strategy delivered a 10.8% y-o-y increase in FY18 sales to a record €209.8m, and a 56.2% jump in EBIT to €11.5m.

Companies: 2G Energy