14 Jan 21
boohoo Group plc (BOO LN) - Strong peak trading
Boohoo has delivered strong results over the peak trading period for the four months ended 31 December 2020. Group revenue is +40% YOY, with robust growth seen across all brands and regions. The Agenda for Change programme is progressing at pace, demonstrating the Group’s commitment to setting a new standard for ethical supply chains in the fashion industry.
Companies: boohoo group Plc
21 Jan 21
Somero Enterprises - Strong Q4, robust cash performance
The group’s year-end update points to stronger than expected Q4 trading, boosted by robust sales in North America that translated efficiently to upside on profitability expectations. Cash performance has once again been stellar, resulting in net cash of $35m, considerably higher than forecast, partly profit drop-through and partly from tight working capital management. We are therefore upgrading our FY 2020 EPS by 25% to 33.2ȼ. The strong cash position also results in a boost to the total dividend, giving a dividend yield of 6.7%. We raise our price target from 285p to 435p, based on a target P/E of 17.0x offering upside to the current P/E of 13.8x.
Companies: Somero Enterprises, Inc.
14 Jan 21
Target Price Increased – 127p
Capital Limited has released its Q4 and FY2020 trading statement this morning. Overall it shows 2020 was a strong year for the company with revenue growing 18% and most other operating metrics growing positively with it – see Fig 1. We have adjusted our forecasts accordingly and also to take into account the mining services contract for the Sukari Mine which the company won late last year. The latter is a game changer for Capital and its investment case in our view; turbo charging revenue growth, enhancing margins and diversifying cashflow all of which should lead to materially higher valuation multiples. We raise our PT to 127p.
Companies: Capital Limited
19 Jan 21
EBITDA ahead on strong financial performance
Kape has issued a trading update for what was a very productive year for the Group and in which it exhibited a strong trading performance. Revenue for FY 2020E is expected to be at the top end of the expected range while Adjusted EBITDA is ahead of guidance. We increase our estimates by 1% and 8% respectively to be in line with the anticipated outturn for the year. It now has around 2.5m paying subscribers across its core markets of North America and Europe. Kape also completed the integration of Private Internet Access (PIA) ahead of schedule and launched new products, including its privacy suite. Kape expects to increase R&D spending further in FY 2021E to build on the successful additions to its product range and customer experience. With good momentum going into FY 2021E, the Group continues to demonstrate its ability to drive customer numbers and retention through the execution of a clear strategy for meeting the growing demand from consumers for digital privacy and security solutions.
Companies: Kape Technologies Plc
15 Jan 21
WHI Morning Comment: Jubilee Metals (JLP) - Strong FY first half performance
Jubilee put out an intraday press release yesterday updating on the performance in the first half (ending Dec 2020) of the FY 2021. Once again Jubilee delivers; significantly increased revenues and profits from its chrome and PGM division in South Africa and a small, but important, contribution from Zambia. Notably this improvement isn't just from commodity price performance; rather increased production, productivity, throughput, renegotiated contracts and all set alongside the strong performance of commodity prices –rhodium, palladium and platinum. We see this as still only the start for Jubilee as we look forward to the first copper oxide concentrates from the Roan project in Zambia to the Sable Refinery – where the Roan plant is currently under construction. Once again we are struck by the speed at which Jubilee moves to advance its projects and, with its South African cash engine showing no signs of slowing down. Jubilee can choose to move its wider ambitions in Zambia forward from internally generated cash flow. On the back of the strong performance we put our forecasts under review.
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
14 Jan 21
Successful peak trading drives upgrades
We were bullish about the ongoing effects of strategic/operational initiatives at G4M, seeing forecast upside risk. It has not disappointed. Q3 sales and margin outperformance drive a 30% upgrade, and a shift into net cash. Extensive planning and systems/delivery changes have helped it after Brexit too, with trading stronger than expected so far in Jan. Valuation looks undemanding given upgrade momentum and the discount to lower margin peers.
Companies: Gear4music (Holdings) PLC
18 Jan 21
Trading update confirms resilient FY2020
Today’s update confirms a strong recovery in H2 FY2020E as expected and a full year adjusted PBT at least in line with FY2019, despite a material impact from Covid and the depressed oil price resulting in a decline in Augean’s North Sea Services business. The FY2020E outturn demonstrates the resilience of the Group and the strong attractions of its growing EfW activities that now account for c.70% of Group profit. Augean is very well positioned in the EfW residue market and with c.40% of the UK’s hazardous landfill capacity. We forecast Group earnings growth of 15% and 21% for FY2021E and FY2022E, and expect further strong cash generation. EV/EBITDAs for FY2021E and FY2022E are 5.7x and 4.5x respectively, substantially below sector constituents and transaction multiples.
Companies: Augean PLC
20 Jan 21
Surface Transforms - SCE raises funds for future expansion
SCE is raising £20m through a placing and open offer as the future commercial pipeline now justifies building the next manufacturing cell (“Cell 2”). Cell 2 will essentially double production capacity and transform the potential of the business. When operating at full capacity, we estimate that SCE would be capable of £35m revenues, £15m EBIT and £12.5m Earnings. This would equate to EV/EBIT of 7.1x and P/E of 9.5x based on the enlarged capital base. Recent trading updates have highlighted that trading is strong and in line with expectations, while longer term ASP expectations have increased significantly.
Companies: Surface Transforms plc
13 Jan 21
Substantial airborne Covid detector opportunity
As a nation, we love knocking ourselves. However in truth, we’re actually a pretty pioneering bunch. For instance, the experts at Oxford University & AstraZeneca have developed one of the world’s 3 most important vaccines in double quick time. Plus, many other British firms are creating similar breakthrough Covid inventions, such as Kromek.
Companies: Kromek Group Plc
15 Jan 21
CCS Support Both Sides of the Pond
2020 ended with two positive moves for carbon capture and storage (CCS) which should benefit Velocys clients. In the US, the signing of the COVID 19 stimulus bill extends and adds support for CCS in the US where the Bayou project is working with CO2 offtaker Occidental to deliver a negative emissions project. The UK government has also published guidance on CCS funding making this option an additional opportunity for the Altalto project. Velocys remains one of the very few opportunities for investors to play negative emission technology. We see both these moves improving the operating environment for the company’s clients and their projects, stimulating demand for the Velocys technology.
Companies: Velocys plc
21 Jan 21
A full house
An H1 trading update to December confirms a strong start to FY21, with sales growth accelerating to 22% y/y – a material rebound from a Covid impacted 2H20 (+9% y/y) and +15% achieved prior to this. KPI‘s are strong across the piece, for instance every Geo grew >20%, Connector revenue grew +20% (Shopify: +115%) and ‘enhanced functionality‘ revs grew +20% also. It‘s genuinely hard to find fault with this performance. To us, this evidences how DOTD is executing on its strategy (around products, partners and Geo‘s) while also benefitting from strong thematic tailwinds benefitting its sector and end-markets. We leave recently upgraded FY21 forecasts unchanged, though note the strong H1 sales performance now requires an undemanding +14% y/y growth to hit N+1 estimates, so see upgrade/ outperformance potential. As well as DOTD‘s clear organic growth opportunities, we also highlight how cash continues to accumulate (now £27.6m) and could be deployed in a number of vectors.
Companies: dotDigital Group plc
12 Jan 21
THE MONTHLY January 2021
Although 2020 will probably go down in history as one of the most challenging years experienced during our lifetime, it will also likely be chronicled as one of the best years for the recognition and appreciation of science. As we entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in its infancy. However, it rapidly evolved through the exponential rise in infections and mortality globally. Much has been achieved during the past 12 months in the fight against COVID-19, but, as we enter 2021, there are considerable concerns about the emergence of a mutant version of the virus and the second wave that we are now facing.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
21 Jan 21
Sumo Group (SUMO LN) - Strong, broad-based growth
Sumo is trading strongly, with several drivers that could lead the company to outperform 2021 earnings expectations, in our view. Even based on conservative earnings expectations, we believe shares offer attractive value to growth.
Companies: Sumo Group Plc
20 Jan 21
2021 markets; fertile hunting grounds
Ahead of the FY Trading Update at the end of January, we revisit RBG’s investment case, and respond to investor concerns over Convex’s M&A pipeline and the short term cash requirements of Litigation Financing. Outperformance of the UK legal industry vs UK GDP over 2020 validates RBL’s continued performance. M&A market data shows an encouraging recovery in deal completions which looks set to continue into 2021, and we anticipate Convex to be well placed to convert its pipeline of >20 deals (c.£18m) into revenues, underpinning forecasts. LionFish is now well seeded, and the Group’s early cash realisations of cases ensure cashflows for the business are broadly neutral. Whilst case outcomes are binary, the de-risked option value here is a compelling addition to the investment case. We see intrinsic value as c.100p; highlighting the breakout potential in these shares.
Companies: RBG Holdings Plc
21 Jan 21
Baker Steel Resources Trust - Annual review results in a strong NAV uplift
Baker Steel Resources Trust (BSRT) reported an impressive NAV total return (TR) of 29.2% for 2020, visibly ahead of the EMIX Global Mining Index (22.2% TR in sterling). This largely resulted from a yearend valuation review of unlisted portfolio holdings and was driven by a combination of projects moving up the development curve, the rebound in commodity prices (CRB Commodity Index up by 21% in H220) and higher market multiples of listed peers (vs end-June). Key contributors include Cemos reaching full production capacity and Tungsten West being revalued after recent first closing of its £5.0m funding round. Their carrying value almost doubled, adding 8.9pp and 8.0pp to portfolio NAV TR, respectively.
Companies: Baker Steel Resources Trust
21 Jan 21
Quadrise Fuels International - Taking to the high seas again
Quadrise has signed a Joint Development Agreement with MSC Shipmanagement to carry out a trial of MSAR, its synthetic heavy fuel oil substitute, on representative commercial vessels in MSC's global fleet. The 4,000-hour trial is scheduled to start in calendar Q421. If successful, the trial may potentially be followed by commercial roll-out of MSAR across MSC’s global fleet. The trial may also include testing of Quadrise’s bioMSAR biofuel with a view to potential commercial roll-out of the new low-carbon variant as well.
Companies: Quadrise Fuels International plc
21 Jan 21
Additional A$20m Funding
Talga Group’s ability to add an additional A$20m in new equity as part of its share purchase plan helps secure timelines and de-risks the process of developing the Vittangi graphite anode project in northern Sweden. The pricing remains attractive relative to our valuation estimates and our SOPT valuation remains at A$2.9.
Companies: Talga Group Ltd.
21 Jan 21
Looking Ahead – w/c 25th Jan 2021
Looking Ahead At The Next Week
21 Jan 21
Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust - Reaping rewards from three-step process
Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust’s (MNP’s) manager Zehrid Osmani reports that his ongoing focus on long-term structural, sustainable business models was beneficial for the fund’s performance during the coronavirus-led market sell-off in Q120, with portfolio companies undertaking measures to protect their brand equity. He is encouraged by a general increase in investor awareness of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues, an area of research that Martin Currie has focused on for several years, as he believes that ESG improvements can lead to higher total returns for shareholders. MNP’s performance has improved since the appointment of Osmani in October 2018, and its NAV is now ahead of its benchmark over the last one, three, five and 10 years.
Companies: Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust
21 Jan 21
PBT guidance raised ahead of the full-year results
Aggreko raised its FY20 PBT guidance, now expecting to be slightly above the previous range of £80-100m, as a result of an improvement in market activity. Management maintained the FY21 PBT guidance of £170-190m, on the back of a gradual recovery in economic activity.
Companies: Aggreko plc
21 Jan 21
Small Cap Feast
NQ Minerals, the base and precious metals producer from its 100% owned flagship Hellyer Mine and the 100% owner of the Beaconsfield Gold Mine, both in northern Tasmania, Australia, has submitted a draft prospectus to the UK Financial Conduct Authority for approval. The Company is considering applying for admission of its ordinary shares to the Official List of the FCA by way of a Standard Listing and to trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange . Details TBA Foresight Group , the award-winning infrastructure and private equity investment manager to IPO on the Main Market (Premium). The Offer will primarily comprise a sale of shares by existing shareholders (c.80% of the Offer) with a smaller offering of new shares (c.20% of the Offer) to be issued by the Company. Details TBA. Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5m by way of private placement of new Common Shares to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments announced it intends to launch an IPO of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
Companies: TYM SQZ IIG EVG EVE ECSC RBN AVG IGE CMH
21 Jan 21
ArborGen Holdings - US sales slow in H221, positive outlook remains
ArborGen’s underlying H1 trading performance was robust, although the H2 US selling season has been slower than previously anticipated. Our headline FY21 PBT estimate is reduced by c 1% (or c 30% underlying before COVID-19 employment support monies) with no material change for FY22. An increase in supply of higher-value seedlings in the US remains on track and is expected to drive group earnings higher from FY22.
Companies: ArborGen Holdings Limited
21 Jan 21
Oil & Gas Daily Flow
Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL LN): US$65m Senior Credit Facility secured | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN): Comprehensive trading update | TransGlobe Energy (TGL LN): FY20 production well within guidance
Companies: XOP ENOG TGL
21 Jan 21
FY20: not too bad, some room for improvement though
FY20 results were more or less in line with consensus* The Machining Solutions and Material Technology segments are still under pressure The Mining business is doing well, particularly in terms of orders received The balance sheet remains very healthy thus a SEK2.00 extraordinary dividend on top of the SEK4.50 ordinary one We do not expect any major change to our forecasts
Companies: Sandvik AB
21 Jan 21
SP Angel Morning View: Tin prices hit seven-year high on economic recovery and EV battery demand
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – STRONG BUY – Update on Restored Contract Areas Chaarat Gold* (CGH LN) – Kapan production beats guidance and delivers $19m EBITDA Sunstone Metals (STM AU) – Drilling results from the Espiritu gold-silver prospect in Ecuador Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Sale of data on Finnish project Versarien* (VRS LN) – Interim results W Resources (WRES LN) – La Parilla Q4 production
Companies: AAZ CGH WRES TYM VRS STM
21 Jan 21
EMIS Group - Better performance in H220
EMIS saw trading gradually improve through H220 to finish the year slightly ahead of expectations. The company continued to support customers in dealing with the pandemic, with the recently acquired Pinnacle Systems’ software now being used in the nationwide vaccination programme. Progress was also made in product development with the launch of the first EMIS-X analytics product. We maintain our forecasts.
Companies: EMIS Group plc
21 Jan 21
Capital Access' Hot Off The Wires - The Day Ahead
Today's news & views, plus announcements from ENT, TATE, CBG, AJB, SONG, IGG, SUMO
21 Jan 21
First impressions after release of "Cyberpunk 2077" do not change our opinion
While one day after its release, CD Projekt’s new AAA game Cyberpunk 2077 is the best-selling video game in popular online shops Steampowered.com, GOG.com and epicgames.com and has generated a record 8m of pre-orders, the game’s reviews have so far not fulfilled the gigantic expectations of investors and the gaming community. However, as reviews on steampowered.com are improving following patches and bug fixes and due to the game’s sales so far, we are still confident that our estimates are achievable.
Companies: CD Projekt S.A.
21 Dec 20
Powerhouse Energy Group plan to become 'significant player in UK energy market as well as overseas'
19 May 17
Leading UK fund manager, Gervais Williams, discusses investing, his outlook and two companies he's excited about
30 Jan 20
Equals Group PLC chief 'phenomenally bullish' about prospects as revenues rise 20%
07 Jan 20
Volex PLC Investor Presentatiion
21 Mar 18
Bitesize briefing – Vermillion Energy
18 Dec 20
Touchstone Exploration signs 'biggest deal ever' worth up to $2.2bln
18 Nov 19
CentralNic's acquisition of Team Internet to be 'significantly earnings enhancing'
21 Oct 19
Avacta Group PLC boss sees a huge opportunity with new version of cancer treatment
30 May 18
Executive interview - Banca Sistema
23 Jan 20
Executive interview - Sureserve
07 Feb 20
Morning Report: Novacyt reports 'unprecedented interest' in its coronavirus diagnostic
24 Dec 20
Mining Capital's Alastair Ford explains why mining in 2020 has survived and in some cases, thrived
26 Nov 20
Bushveld Minerals' is back to full production, reporting a 31% increase in activity for Q3
23 Dec 20
Watch: VivoPower announces US$250m deal
21 Dec 20