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17 May 19

LIBERUM: Staffline* - Unscheduled statement: estimates reduced

We are reducing 2019 and 2020 FD EPS by 46% and 17%. We increase FY net debt from £52m to £85m (net debt /EBITDA of 3.0x) for FY 2019.

Companies: Staffline Group

17 May 19

Interim results – another beat

H1 Revenue is ahead of our not long ago increased expectation driving a better profit result. Cash is also £10m ahead. The business has good momentum and despite the ever present spectre of Brexit there is still significant scope for us to prudently raise revenue, EBITDA and EPS estimates. Acquisitions integrations and performances are on plan and the online advertising technology changes in place to benefit. The shares have re-rated again in line with the changing fundamentals. We see a path to 20x EBITDA leaving significant upside potential without the need for further upgrades.

Companies: Future

23 May 19

LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - On the cusp of a major de-risking event

The completion of $825m in equity and convertible financing now puts Sirius on the cusp of finalising the funding package for its WoodSmith mine. The company plans to issue a $500m high yield bond in the coming months which will unlock the remaining $2.5bn credit facility from JP Morgan, needed to complete the project.

Companies: Sirius Minerals

23 May 19

Positive trading update, new factory progressing to schedule

We note the announcement this morning by Strix, confirming it continues to trade in line with market expectations, as previously announced at the time of the FY18 results (21st March 2019). It has also confirmed that the group has signed an agreement with the Zengcheng Government regarding a land purchase and construction of the group’s new factory is scheduled to start at the end of Q3 this year, this is in line with expectations. The impact of this new factory is already built into forecasts and its effect was discussed in a ZC note published on the same day as the FY18 results. Despite c. £25.0m of investment over the next two years, net debt will remain c. 1.0x EBITDA. Dividend growth of 10% to 7.7p in FY19 yields 4.8% with the shares trading on 10.6x earnings in FY20.

Companies: Strix Group

14 May 19

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd - Capitalising on more favourable terms

Duke has agreed modifications to the terms of three royalty agreements from the Capital Step acquisition. The effect is to unlock a minimum of £3.7m in additional revenues over the next 5 years. As a result, Capital Step's future revenue is expected to increase by 25%+ at no additional cost. This realises a key synergy from the Capital Step deal.

Companies: Duke Royalty

22 May 19

Settlement news flow, attractive returns

We believe the settlement in principle of a litigation project that was announced on 20 March 2019 will likely be confirmed on Monday 27 May, providing further positive news flow for the shares and demonstrating the attractive returns available if the right cases are selected.

Companies: Litigation Capital Management

17 May 19

Upgrades to forecasts, release of FY22E numbers

Following FY19A results last week, we upgrade FY20E and FY21E forecasts to reflect an increase in business momentum. We increase FY20E revenues by 3.0% to £48.6m, and adjusted PBT 6.7% to £5.6m. For FY21E we nudge up revenues by 1.3% albeit keep earnings broadly flat. Our newly released FY22E forecasts expect £62.3m of revenues and £7.2m Adj. PBT. We increase our PT to 520p from 460p (set by DCF) on updated forecasts, yet remain Neutral.

Companies: Keystone Law

20 May 19

Cenkos: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd - Full Steam Ahead

Falcon Oil & Gas is an international oil and gas company focussed on the acquisition, exploration and appraisal of unconventional oil and gas assets. Falcon has a 30% interest in three exploration permits in the Beetaloo Sub-basin, in the Northern Territories (NT), Australia - covering 4.6million gross acres and estimated to contain 496 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of original gas in place (OGIP) within the Middle Velkerri B dry gas shale play. As part of a transformational farm out to Origin Energy in 2014, the Company carries up to A$113m (US$80m) for the costs of the upcoming Stage 2 and 3 work programme to drill and hydraulically fracture stimulate four further horizontal wells and evaluate the potential of the Kyalla and Velkerri liquid plays before confirming commercial production flow rates in the most prospective play(s). On Friday, the Company conditionally raised gross proceeds of cUS$9m (c£7m) to primarily fund Falcon's share of the next cUS$100m of capital expenditure on the Beetaloo work programme and its ongoing G&A. By the end of the Stage 3 work programme, a total of US$300m would have been spent by Falcon and its partners in determining the commerciality of the Beetaloo. Through its transformational farm-out deals with Hess and Origin, we estimate Falcon's share of this gross cost to be approximately US$15m, or 5% of the total capex to date for its 30% working interest. Prior to development we would expect Falcon to monetise its interest and exit the play. Given the multi-TCF potential, strategic location and multiple commercialisation options, we believe Falcon offers early entry to a world-class play with potential upside far greater than any of its peers. We initiate coverage with a price target of 41p and a BUY recommendation.

Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas

21 May 19

Upbeat H1 & in line with FY19 estimates

One of the most reliable gauges of a company’s ‘competitive moat’, is (not surprisingly) the amount of money it generates. Not solely profits, but the return on invested capital after adjusting for financial gearing. On this measure Watkin Jones ranks as the industry’s #1 player (see below), delivering an anticipated FY19 unlevered Return on Equity of 44.2%.

Companies: Watkin Jones

20 May 19

Earnings accretive acquisition

CentralNic has announced this morning the acquisition of TPP Wholesale, the leading Australian and New Zealand domain name and hosting reseller business for a consideration of $24m AUD, subject to financing. This acquisition is a good example of CNIC’s strategy to acquire high recurring revenue businesses, with potential synergies that exist in new markets. We leave forecasts unchanged for now, preferring to wait until the financing condition is satisfied, but management have stated that they believe this transaction will be immediately earnings accretive for 2019E with double digit earnings accretion in 2020E. This is the group’s third acquisition in 12 months as they continue to execute their consolidation strategy.

Companies: Centralnic Group

20 May 19

Cenkos: Collagen Solutions Plc - Strategic investor vote of confidence

Collagen Solutions has announced it has received a strategic investment of £4.2m from the private US company, Rosen's Diversified Inc (RDI). The company will increase the raise to ~£6.0m through a proposed equity placing and open offer. The associated shares will be issued at a price of 5.0p. We believe this investment supports the growth we see developing in the company and significantly de-risks the near-term cash position. Following the recent positive trading statement, we have upgraded our FY19E forecasts and introduce new numbers out to FY21E. The momentum we see in the company supports our forecasts and Buy recommendation.

Companies: Collagen Solutions

21 May 19

Forecast upgrades

GYG has released a trading update this morning confirming that they have seen a positive uplift in trading at the start of the year and expect full year results to be ahead of current market expectations. The core refit business has seen continued improvements in the trading environment in the first four months of the year and further progress in the New Build segment has also contributed positively to the group’s performance. We are upgrading our forecasts as a result, and now expect adj. EBITDA in 2019E of €3.3m (vs. €3.0m previously) with adj. PBT of €1.6m (vs. €1.3m previously). In our view, this is an encouraging update and is further evidence that the trading environment in refit continues to improve as demand begins to normalise. Even on upgraded forecasts, our 2021E expectations remain 21% below the 2017 outturn at the adjusted PBT level highlighting the extent of a geared recovery on offer.

Companies: GYG

20 May 19

Sustainable development

We believe leading engineering and construction group nmcn will benefit from sustainable earnings growth, supported by environmental investment and a trend among customers seeking more stable, long-term partners after Carillion’s failure. The cash-positive group’s strategy prioritises margins, cash generation and risk management to prevent recurrence of loss-making legacy contracts. Based on what we believe to be conservative estimates, the shares are trading on a FY 2019E P/E of 10.3x and yield of 3.5%.

Companies: NMCN Plc

22 May 19

LIBERUM: U+I* - Challenging backdrop limits gains

U+I’s full year results were below our forecast, with £42.8m of development and trading gains just below the group's £45-50m target. A valuation decline in the investment portfolio further weighed on returns with NAV -4% to 289p and 4% below our forecast.

Companies: U&I Group

22 May 19

Cenkos: Marlowe Plc - Strategic acquisition

The prospective acquisition of Clearwater (£11m EV) significantly strengthens Marlowe's core Water division, creating a c£75m revenue leading player in the Water Treatment & Hygiene market. The acquisition and associated restructuring costs will be funded from a £20m capital raise. Relative to existing market forecasts, earnings accretion exceeding 10% is likely by FY21E as synergies are unlocked.

Companies: Marlowe

23 May 19

BioLargo - Progress towards independent businesses

BioLargo continues to make progress in its goal to establish its various subsidiaries as independent businesses. Odor-No-More recorded revenue of $301,000 for Q119 (of $364,000 total), down 10.7% from Q419. It cited lumpiness in its sales pattern caused by the timing of orders, weather and manufacturing, and the fact that approximately 20% ($68,000) of orders were in process at the end of the quarter. This business is expanding with new distribution agreements in the waste handling and cannabis industries. BioLargo Water has placed it first Advanced Oxidation System (AOS) treatment train, and Clyra Medical will run a 30-day animal study to support a 510(k) application for its wound treatment product.

Companies: BIOLARGO

23 May 19

Strong air traffic growth in North America

The healthy top-line growth during the first four months has been mainly supported by the robust air traffic volume in North America and accelerated development at both airport and railway stations in Northern Europe and Asia.

Companies: Autogrill

23 May 19

MTI Wireless Edge - Strong first quarter

MTI Wireless Edge (LON:MWE) has reported results for the first quarter (Q1) of 2019, showing continued strong progress. Revenues increased by 16% year-on-year and operating profits 66%. We maintain our full-year (FY) 2019 forecasts, with FY revenue growth of 10% and earnings per share (EPS) growth

23 May 19

Britvic - A good interim performance

Britvic has delivered another strong performance in H1, with organic constant currency revenue growth of 1.9%, organic adjusted EBIT margin up 30bps and adjusted EPS up 5.2%. The business capability programme (BCP) is due to be completed during H219, bringing higher capacity and increased flexibility to the company. Looking ahead, as capex and leverage normalise to lower levels, and planned returns and further growth from the BCP programme come to fruition, the wide discount to peers may narrow.

Companies: Britvic

23 May 19

FY18/19: a positive year in preparation for AMP7

United Utilities posted a positive set of results for its FY18/19 closing in March. UU delivered in revenues and underlying EBIT and surprised on underlying net profit, which came in 6% above consensus estimates, and reported net profit +6% above our own estimates. After achieving ‘fast-track’ status from the regulator for its 2020-25 business plan, UU is now ready to ramp up investments in preparation for AMP7, the next regulatory period.

Companies: United Utilities

23 May 19

Active private equity reaches new shores

Busy Q1 19 characterised by strong asset rotation. The holding company has acquired a 25% stake in a Spanish Private Equity fund and signed an agreement to create a €1bn investment fund. The (uncertain) discount to NAV stands at 16.2%.

Companies: Eurazeo

23 May 19

Ascelia Pharma

Ascelia Pharma recently announced its maiden interim financial results as a public company. Q319 operational expenditure and net loss has increased versus Q318 due to the Phase III study preparation and IPO costs. It is interesting to see a company with a clinical pipeline appear on the public market. Ascelia’s first product is Phase III ready with a sophisticated regulatory strategy.

23 May 19

Cranswick

Cranswick had a year of consolidation in FY19, showing resilience against an uncertain and intensely competitive market backdrop. Management has continued to invest in the business to strengthen its asset base. Revenues were broadly flat on an underlying, like-for-like basis, and adjusted PBT was slightly ahead on the same basis, despite the tough trading environment. Capital investment behind the business continues apace: the Continental meats facility was completed in FY19 and the construction of the new state-of-the-art poultry processing facility is well underway.

23 May 19

HarbourVest Global Private Equity - Stability in a late-cycle environment

HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) has recorded an uplift in NAV since end-July 2018 of 4.9% and 5.6% in US dollar and sterling terms respectively, with limited impact from increased public market volatility of Q418. Following successful realizations, HVPE aims to rebuild its exposure to the primary strategy (44% vs target 55%), and to the US market (55% vs 65%). Moreover, HVPE looks at further diversification through investments in real assets which are characterized by low correlation with equity markets and provide stable cash flows. Following the transaction in February 2019, HVPE’s exposure to real asset and mezzanine investments now stands at 14% (at end-April 2019).

Companies: Harbourvest Global Private Equity

23 May 19

A takeover by the founder family

The Af Jochnick family has proposed a bid to takeover all Oriflame shares. The offered bid price is SEK227 for a total value of SEK8.9bn.

Companies: Oriflame Holding

23 May 19

BCI Minerals - Mardie PFS optimisation study

On 17 May BCI announced the results of its PFS optimisation study at its Mardie salt and potash project in north-western Australia. Relative to its earlier PFS study (the results of which were announced in June 2018), the principal differences are an increase in salt and sulphate of potash (SOP) production, by 14.3% and 33.3% respectively, and the development of a dedicated port at the Mardie site. While this has increased the project’s capex estimate by 48.7% to A$498m, it has increased its pre-tax NPV10 by 67.2% and our estimate of post-tax NPV10 by A$111.2m to A$345.5m (or 86.9c per existing BCI share). At the same time, the project’s operational lifespan has been extended to 60 years (from 30 years previously).

Companies: BC Iron

23 May 19

Deutsche Beteiligungs - Macro environment provides some headwinds

Deutsche Beteiligungs (DBAG) agreed the seventh MBO of DBAG Fund VII (cloudflight.io), which as a result will reach 60% allocation of its investment commitments, reflecting solid portfolio ramp-up. The first months of 2019 witnessed a rebound in equity markets, allowing DBAG to post €29.0m net income for Q219 on the back of portfolio valuation. At the same time, however, the subdued outlook of the German economy coupled with some sector-specific challenges increase the risk of lower than expected growth prospects in portfolio companies and translated into an €8.4m negative valuation impact in Q219.

Companies: Deutsche Beteiligungs

23 May 19

StatPro Group - Trading remains in line with expectations

Trading remains in line and we have maintained our forecasts, which imply 2.7% FY19 organic revenue growth. Management’s two key priorities for FY19 are 1) improving EBITDA margins in all areas of the business and 2) ensuring the Delta integration is a success. In the longer run, margins stand to benefit from the group’s increasing scale and costs dropping out as the group’s three software platforms are consolidated over the next few years. In our view, the shares continue to look attractive, given the group’s c £56m recurring revenue book and the declining rating (c 15x FY20e), especially in light of the active M&A backdrop in the financial software sector. We note that Axioma, a StatPro competitor in the risk space, was recently acquired by Deutsche Börse for $850m or c 8.5x sales.

Companies: Statpro Group

23 May 19

Bitesize briefing - ADMIE Holding

23 May 19

ERM Power - Investor day confirms structural growth trends

The recent investor day confirmed the opportunities we see for ERM Power from an evolving energy market, which we expect will create medium-term growth potential especially for the Energy Solutions business. In the meantime, investors will benefit from strong forecasted cash flow generation, with total free cash flow over the period FY19–21 equivalent to c 40% of the current market cap. We expect this to be allocated in a balanced way between shareholders’ remuneration and growth capex.

Companies: ERM Power