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04 Mar 21

LIBERUM: Plus500* - Conditions remain attractive

In addition to highlighting the relatively attractive underlying conditions that prevailed in February, in this note we introduce our FY23 estimates. We believe that the latter helps to further highlight the attractive valuation and growth potential offered by the group, as well as the significant valuation discount that Plus500 trades on relative to its peers. We see the latter as inappropriate given the clear benefits of the group’s best-in-class platform, its scalable technology and agile marketing algorithms. We expect these factors to drive continued market share gains and superior financial returns, and as a result, we reiterate our BUY rating.

Companies: Plus500 Ltd.

01 Mar 21

Digital momentum building

Reach’s prelims were ahead of N1S estimates for H2 sales and EBITDA (1% and 3% resp.) and showed excellent progress with both the customer value strategy (‘CVS’) and business transformation agenda. Whilst FY’20 Group sales were 15% y/y lower as CV19 impacted Print, Digital revenue grew +11% y/y to £118m (H2: +20% to £70m), supported by a strong uptick in user engagement with content (page views/user: +39% y/y) and further progress in signing up new registered users (Feb’21: 5.8m; Dec’20: 5.0m; Dec’19: 0.7m). Meanwhile quick action to mitigate CV19 impact on Print volumes and execution on the business transformation plan saw AOP margins increase 50bps y/y, with Group H2 AOP down just 4% y/y (FY’20: -13%). Looking ahead, there were highly encouraging results from initial campaigns on the Group’s ReachID platform (+10%-40% uplift in click-through rates on early campaigns), whilst further cost savings of £11m are announced through rationalisation of the Group’s Print sites. Strong cash performance was reflected in £42m of cash inflow (post pension and historic legal and contractual payments), which gives management confidence to declare a final cash dividend of 4.26p/share. The path to sustainable top-line and FCF growth remain very much open, with FY’21E adj FCF of £120m generating an 11% yield at current valuation.

Companies: Reach plc

01 Mar 21

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - Final results

Final results from AFC are very close to our projections, with net cash slightly ahead of our expectations. There is no new news in this announcement, and we marginally edge up the losses in 2021E and 2022E due to increased activity levels as the Group looks to capitalise on the vast opportunities available. We remain excited about the long-term investment thesis we set out recently and maintain our target valuation of 191.5p per share. As we have previously highlighted, our valuation excludes what we consider to be significant growth opportunities highlighted in the note.

Companies: AFC Energy plc

02 Mar 21

WHI Morning Comment: AFC Energy (AFC) - AFC Energy's Final Results

AFC Energy's Final Results for the year ended 31 October 2020 indicate the company is in a position of strength and at inflection point of sales growth. Results were better than we had forecast with a reported loss of £4.2M (WHIe £4.5M) and cash flow from operations of £4.3M (WHIe £4.2M). Most importantly, the company ended the period with a stronger cash balance than we had expected of £31.6M (WHIe £29.9M) reflecting the capital light strategy the company is applying. The year-end confirmed order book of £1.1M indicates that AFC Energy, after decades of investment, is past the inflection point that is translating its globally unique technology into a highly-compelling, long-term commercial growth opportunity.

Companies: AFC Energy plc

04 Mar 21

LIBERUM: Futura Medical* - Financing positive, Asia deal struck and EU approval on-track

Futura has secured £1.5m from convertible loan notes with a Hong Kong based PE fund. There is potential for a further £0.5m through warrants. It has also signed a commercial deal for its erectile dysfunction product MED3000 for certain Asian countries including China. Under the deal its partner will fund all development and related costs with Futura set to receive 50% of future profits. Lastly, its EU regulatory filing remains on-track with approval likely in the coming months in our view. We think this update gives management the room to deliver an EU approval which can unlock a major out-licensing deal whilst it also secures costless access for the Asian opportunity. This will put the firm on a strong footing to execute its US study this year that should lead to a further value inflection. BUY.

Companies: Futura Medical plc

02 Mar 21

Emphatic validation on Oxgene sale, plus upgrades

Mercia has validated the model emphatically with the sale of Oxgene, the second-largest portfolio investment, for £30.7m. This is nearly double the carrying value and a £14.6m realised gain, equating to a 5x return/51% IRR. 3rd party funds also benefited. This underscores embedded value, prudent carrying values and the “Complete Connected Capital” model. An accompanying update points to strong underlying performance which drives a 56% FY21e adj. EBITDA upgrade and +13-15% in outer years. The shares trade at an unwarranted ~30% discount to our revised NAV (+12%) and a ~40% discount to our SOTP intrinsic value.

Companies: Mercia Asset Management PLC

02 Mar 21

Delivering sustainable, quality growth

Begbies Traynor’s track record demonstrates its ability to generate consistent growth in increasingly sustainable revenues across the economic cycle. This stems from a strategy driven by value-accretive acquisitions over the past six years, designed to build both upon existing and develop new, complementary disciplines. Returns have also been enhanced by organic investment in service line expansion, employee development / recruitment, and processes focused upon improved working practices and client service. The results are clearly visible in 16% CAGR in EPS from FY16-FY20, consistently positive cash generation and 8% pa dividend growth since 2017. Earnings growth is significantly ahead of the UK insolvency market (4% CAGR FY16-FY20), reflecting improved market shares from an increasingly diversified business, divisional cross sales / referrals, and the benefit of the acquisition strategy.

Companies: Begbies Traynor Group plc

25 Feb 21

Small Cap Feast

tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard). Has raised £13M in an oversubscribed placing. £25m mkt cap. Due 26 Feb. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc has out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Anticipated mkt cap £110m. Raising £13m in new money and vendor sale of £34.9m . Due 2nd March. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.

Companies: YEW IKA UPR WYN ENW BWNG TRAK DBOX HZM G4M

01 Mar 21

Resilient results, strong outlook

Results were well trailed in January’s trading update. In the event, adjusted PBT emerged marginally ahead of FY2020, despite material impacts from Covid-19 and a depressed oil price. Although biomass incinerators were closed for much of the second quarter, the Group grew sales from residues from Energy from Waste (‘EfW’) by 15% and signed a further 6 new contracts, maintaining its high win rate. The outlook for EfW remains very strong with c.40 plants in planning or construction that provides the opportunity for Augean to double its current EfW revenues and profits of c.£20m and c.£14m over the longer term. Group operating margins are forecast to reach 25% and cash generation is strong, supporting a 3.5% yield on a resumed forecast dividend. EV/EBITDA multiples for FY2021E, FY2022E and FY2023E are 6.2x, 5.3x and 4.3x, which are well below established industrial sector metrics.

Companies: Augean PLC

02 Mar 21

Strong FY20 Results

Shanta Gold (AIM: SHG), the East Africa-focused gold producer has, this morning, released its full year results for 2020. The company previously announced production and operational figures for 2020 alongside group-wide reserves and resources update. As such the figures reported today are in line with our forecasts down to EBITDA level, but generally better than expected elsewhere– see Fig 1. Overall it has clearly been a strong year financially with revenue, EBITDA and EPS up by 31%, 34% and 270% respectively from the previous year. The company has also kept to its promise of a maiden dividend with 0.10p per share payable in April as part of a semi-annual programme.

Companies: Shanta Gold Limited

02 Mar 21

Regional REIT - Q420 dividend as guided

Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) Q420 DPS, in line with the company’s previous guidance, takes the aggregate FY20 DPS to 6.4p, and is supported by continuing strong rent collection. The company has previously indicated that it was targeting dividends to be fully covered by EPRA earnings and we expect this to be confirmed when detailed FY20 results are released on 25 March.

Companies: Regional REIT Ltd.

04 Mar 21

Cenkos: HeiQ Plc -- Synbio Inside: Chrisal acquisition

HeiQ has announced the acquisition of a 51% stake in Chrisal, a Belgian company developing pre- and probiotic formulations (Synbiotics) to support a healthy, stable microbiome on the surfaces to which it is applied. HeiQ will pay €7.5m (in cash and shares) for its majority holding, providing access to a complementary technology platform and adjacent markets such as cosmetics, surface hygiene treatment and water purification. Chrisal generated revenues of €5.5m in the 12-months to Dec-20 and an operating profit of €1.6m. We maintain our Buy recommendation on HeiQ.

Companies: HeiQ PLC

01 Mar 21

Acquisition of Keep IT Simple

The Panoply has announced the acquisition of Keep IT Simple (KITS), a provider of high value IT support and transformation services to public and private sector clients. KITS has a strong client base, including the Rural Payments Agency and DEFRA, and provides managed services notably in service integration and management. The current strength of The Panoply is in discovery, alpha and beta stages of projects and KITS will add the capability to run high value services thereby providing a complete end-toend offering. The combination with KITS will extend the average duration of contracts, with the enlarged group generating a higher proportion of revenues on a recurring basis, in addition to enabling The Panoply to bid for materially larger, multi-year projects. The group is paying £26m (30% cash, 70% shares) with no earnout but a £7m clawback if very demanding revenue targets are not met in 2022/23. With a March year end, there is limited impact on our fiscal 2021 estimate, but for FY22 we raise our PBT forecast by +48% to £8.4m, while DCe EPS is enhanced by +30% to 8.7p. We view the combination with KITS as a perfect strategic and operational fit, while the financial benefits are compelling. We raise our target price to 275p (was 235p) and retain our Buy recommendation.

Companies: Panoply Holdings Plc

02 Mar 21

SP Angel Healthcare Conditions- 02-03-2021

IXICO plc (IXI.L): New contract

Companies: IXICO Plc

01 Mar 21

CentralNic (CNIC LN) - Q4 update

CentralNic released unaudited preliminary 2020 results showing pro forma 9% revenue growth, ahead of expectations (ZC: 4%). The company continues to take market share in a growing market. EBITDA was in line with consensus expectations but below our top of consensus forecasts. CNIC is increasing investment in new products and integration, which we expect to continue in 2021 and provide net returns in 2022. The company’s results demonstrate its ability to integrate, scale and extract synergies from acquisitions. We see potential earnings upside from the Codewise acquisition and expect CNIC to deliver further significant earnings accretive acquisitions in 2021.

Companies: CentralNic Group Plc

05 Mar 21

Dekel Agri-Vision* - Anticipating Earnings Upgrades from February Production Results

Dekel Agri-Visions reported an excellent January production update, showing positive momentum, supporting our buy rating and underpinning excellent shareholder returns on offer. We see visible near-term earnings catalysts; favourable pricing conditions for palm oil as well as increasing utilisation and ownership of their cashew processing plant, demonstrating execution on the diversification strategy.

Companies: Dekel Agri-Vision Plc

05 Mar 21

Morning Note – 5 March 2021

Companies: RBG XSG XSG

05 Mar 21

Rockhopper Exploration - Falklands licence extensions

Falklands licence extensions

Companies: Rockhopper Exploration plc

05 Mar 21

Cenkos:Creo Medical Group Plc -- Strong foundation in place

We are reinstating forecasts for Creo Medical, taking a conservative approach at this time while providing visibility on the contribution of the businesses acquired through 2020. Our base assumption is that the pandemic continues to impact 2021, which we believe leaves upside potential should the infection levels improve through the year. We note that Creo has used the lock-down period through 2020 to significantly enhance its operational structure and we see the company entering 2021 in a strong position to deliver growth should the impact of the pandemic wane. Alongside our forecasts we move to a Buy recommendation.

Companies: Creo Medical Group Plc

05 Mar 21

RBG Holdings - Promising Outlook for 2021 – Updating Earnings

The recent capital markets day presentations provided a clear strategic direction and purpose to the RBG Holdings strategy and the resulting diversification of operations. The quality of Rosenblatt law has continued to show through and the flexible approach to staffing, allied to the business mix and fee arrangements, provides excellent margins. The branching out into other related professional services is strategically sensible and recent updates from the Group suggest execution is improving, particularly this morning's announcement of further deal completions at Convex. There's lots to like in Rosenblatt's business and we maintain our buy rating while seeing medium term strategic and competitive challenges for other mid-market UK focused law firms.

Companies: RBG Holdings Plc

05 Mar 21

Xeros - Fundraise to catalyse strategic ambitions

Xeros has raised £8m (gross) to productise the extremely promising XFiltra product and to assist with some pandemic-induced licence slippage.

Companies: Xeros Technology Group (XSG:LON)Xeros Technology Group Plc (XSG:LON)

05 Mar 21

Vertu Motors Plc (VTU LN) - Analyst & Investor Teach In

We had the opportunity to look at Vertu’s bespoke systems capabilities yesterday, which we see as a powerful part of the investment case and key differentiating factor from its competitors. To our minds this ultimately delivers enhanced scalability, decision making, integration focus and compliance, which are vital ingredients for future performance.

Companies: Vertu Motors PLC

04 Mar 21

Disinfection services and North America underpin Q4 and FY2020 results

Rentokil continued its strong momentum in Q4, on the back of an incremental better performance in disinfection services and a resilient North American residential pest control business. FY20 revenue came in slightly ahead of expectations with improved profitability delivering a positive surprise. However, the stock price came under pressure as investors remained jittery about: 1) management delaying the target of achieving an 18% net operating margin in North America to 2022, and 2) the anticipated unwinding of disinfection services.

Companies: Rentokil Initial plc

04 Mar 21

The portfolio review is delivering on its promises

Bekaert posted strong results in every respect. Despite FY20 consolidated sales down by 13% yoy, profitability and cash generation came in at record levels (FY20: underlying EBITDA margin of 12%, FCF up by 8% yoy) and paved the way for a massive deleveraging (net debt down 40% yoy). The company’s new CEO shows confidence looking into 2021.

Companies: NV Bekaert (BEKB:EBR)Bekaert SA (BEKB:BRU)

04 Mar 21

FY20: William Hill’s last ‘public’ update?

William hill announced in line FY 20 results. Revenue, down 16% to £1.32bn, was dragged by retail (-30%), which was partly offset by growth in online (9%) and the US (32%). Operating profit was down 91% to £9.1m, attributable to the retail loss. The William Hill acquisition by Caesar is likely to be completed by late Q1 or early Q2 21. Though William Hill has the building blocks in place, executing on the US opportunity still holds the key.

Companies: William Hill PLC

04 Mar 21

Staying put amidst the uncertain times

Following the Q4 sales update, Jeronimo Martins has announced FY results slightly below our estimates. In FY21, we expect the Polish banner Biedronka to preserve profitability, and the Colombian banner Ara to improve further. However, the Portuguese business is likely to remain under pressure. The strategy to continue with inorganic expansion (despite the pandemic led hiccups) is also a step in the right direction. We maintain a positive stance on the stock’s valuation.

Companies: Jeronimo Martins SGPS (JMT:ELI)Jeronimo Martins, SGPS S.A. (JMT:LIS)

04 Mar 21

Off to a running start!

In the last publication from PSA and FCA as separate companies, the FY20 results put in display the very strong performance shown by both automakers at the end of the year. The record profitability achieved by PSA in H2 and FCA in Q4 serve as a base for a strong start for Stellantis, supported further by better than expected cash generation and an €18bn-strong liquidity reserve to kick-start the machine.

Companies: Stellantis N.V.

04 Mar 21

Strong year 2020, mitigated 2021 guidance

Q4 20 was satisfactory in dry cargo and confirmed the poor market conditions in the tanker segment. In 2020, group EBITDA surged to $342m (level never reached since 2008). The adjusted net result jumped to $106m (vs $23m in 2019), corresponding to the middle of guidance. Norden had strong operating cash flow and a solid financial situation. The bad surprise was on the 2021 guidance of adjusted net result of $20-60m due to the persistence of very low rates in tanker.

Companies: Dampskibsselskabet NORDEN (DNORD:CPH)D/S Norden A/S (DNORD:CSE)

04 Mar 21

Once again: positive revaluation outlook in FY 21

Vonovia reached the lower side of its lfl growth guidance in FY 20. It was nevertheless bullish when considering the FY 21 outlook. Q4 20 was hurt by a “one-off” in the city of Berlin but rents did not slow outside Berlin.

Companies: Vonovia SE

04 Mar 21

Online drives FY20; BetMGM set for big 2021

Entain reported a largely in line top line but above consensus profit numbers, driven by the solid showing in online, which offset the retail weakness. The board has suspended the dividend, in order to preserve liquidity, for what could be an heavy M&A year in 2021 (net debt/EBITDA at 2.1x). Importantly, BetMGM has made considerable progress (+59% revenue, +7pp market share) across the all-important US market and could be in for another blockbuster year in 2021.

Companies: Entain PLC