Research Tree | Equity Research for Investors

19 Oct 21

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - Attractive ahead of COP26

The forthcoming UN Climate Change Conference (known as COP26) should result in an acceleration of governments’ actions to reduce CO2 emissions. This will result in an acceleration of customer end-user adoption rates which would be positive for AFC Energy which is developing zero-emission solutions for the EV-charging, construction, data centre and marine markets.

Companies: AFC Energy plc

15 Oct 21

An opportunistic capital increase

ITM yesterday announced a capital raise of £250m to expand its capacities significantly. This comes sooner than we expected and seems like an opportunistic move to capture the market. The company will use the proceeds to expand its capacities to 2.5GW from 1GW by 2023 and to 5GW by 2024. The remainder of the proceeds will be used to reduce H2 production costs and to build an unparalleled support service. Overall, we are positively surprised.

Companies: ITM Power PLC

20 Oct 21

LIBERUM: SigmaRoc* - On track and good Nordkalk meeting

Companies: SigmaRoc Plc

20 Oct 21

Phoenix Copper (PXC) - Update on Red Star magnetic survey

Phoenix copper today provides an update on its ground geophysical survey over the Red Star prospect near its Empire copper project in Idaho. The Red Star skarn mineralisation (lead and silver ± copper, zinc) is associated with magnetite; the survey just undertaken was to better understand the distribution and orientation of magnetite to find potential mineralisation and to inform the location and direction of a further drilling programme.

Companies: Phoenix Copper Ltd. (United Kingdom)

19 Oct 21

Vast Resources+ (VAST, House Stock at 5.4p)

We are initiating coverage of VAST Resources (VAST), which has wholly-owned Baita Plai and Manaila polymetallic mines plus an interest in two exploration projects, all located in Romania. At this stage, Baita Plai is the main driver for our valuation as it is currently being ramped up to 14kt per month. As such, we expect Baita Plai’s Cu eq output to reach c 2.4ktpa in FY23F followed by 3.3ktpa in FY24F. This, coupled with Manaila’s potential re-start of an additional 3ktpa of Cu eq over the sho

Companies: Vast Resources plc

20 Oct 21

Active Net Zero Clean Energy Index

Longspur Research and Radnor Capital Partners have launched the Active Net Zero Clean Energy Index to allow investors to measure the performance of companies actively enabling climate solutions.The key emphasis is on the word “active”. This pan-European index eliminates greenwashing by penalising fossil fuel activities and focuses on actual achievement and positive contribution, rather than promises for the future. Our proprietary selection methodology is systematic, rules based and quantifiable

Companies: DRX ITM PHE SAE SIT STRLNG VLS

21 Oct 21

Frontier Developments - Great Expectations

The market (and FDEV) is projecting an ambitious step-change in financial performance in FY 22 and FY23. Investors however may recall that Elite Odyssey updates have been delayed. For a variety of reasons, we believe there is some residual risk of disappointment here. Hence, we prefer to sit on the side-lines. Buy

Companies: Frontier Developments Plc

21 Oct 21

LIBERUM: Luceco* - Q3 trading in line

Companies: Luceco PLC

19 Oct 21

Tremor - Tremor’s end-to-end platform strengthens with CTV acquisition

Tremor has announced the complementary $14.7m acquisition of Spearad, which is a global Connected TV (CTV) ad server and media management platform. It enables broadcasters and TV content companies to deliver seamless TV-like ad experiences in CTV and OTT environments, through a platform that can centrally manage and optimise both direct-sold and programmatic CTV campaigns. The Spearad platform will be integrated into Unruly’s Supply Side Platform (SSP), and enable Tremor to offer new and existin

Companies: Tremor International Ltd.

18 Oct 21

Cenkos: Diversified Energy Company Plc -- The Consolidator of Choice

Diversified Energy Company (DEC) has announced a fourth acquisition within the Company's Central Region, acquiring a portfolio of upstream assets and related infrastructure from Tapstone Energy Holdings LLC and its related party, KL CHK SPV LLC. Oaktree Capital will co-invest in the acquisition, representing Oaktree's third co-investment since May this year. Importantly, Oaktree's participation provides important third-party validation whilst also affording Diversified additional liquidity and l

Companies: Diversified Energy Company PLC

18 Oct 21

Bioventix - FY 2021 – normality returning

Bioventix reported FY 2021 results that showed an improvement in H2 revenue growth (+11% vs +1% in H1), suggestive of a return to pre-pandemic testing volumes and growth, resulting in FY 2021 revenues +6% to £10.9m. Adjusted pre-tax profit, however, fell 3% to £8.1m, impacted by c.£0.5m (-6%) FX movements. A 38p special dividend was proposed, resulting in a full-year dividend of 143p, up 1%. FY 2022 will be a transition year, impacted to some extent by FX headwinds (c.-5%) and the loss of c.£1.2

Companies: Bioventix Plc

19 Oct 21

Palace Capital* - Encouraging Trading Update

Palace Capital has released a good trading update of for the 6 months to 30 September. The Group has achieved good progress both across the portfolio and in sales achieved at Hudson Quarter. With cash reserves rising, the Group continues to look for value creative opportunities to recycle capital which should realise value for shareholders. Buy

Companies: Palace Capital plc

18 Oct 21

Tristel - FY 2021 results

Full-year results were in line with the trading update of 21 July, with revenues of £31m (-2%), reflecting the impact of COVID-19 on out-patient procedure rates, resulting in 14% and 24% declines in adjusted EBITDA and pre-tax profit, respectively. Lower than expected procedure growth rates and the decision to discontinue non-core (non-chlorine dioxide products) reduces forecast revenues by c.£3m to £33m in FY 2022. However, higher gross profit and tight control of costs (+6%) results in an unch

Companies: Tristel Plc

20 Oct 21

Non-Standard Finance+ (NSF, House Stock, 4.25p)

Non-Standard Finance (‘NSF’), one of the leading providers of unsecured credit to UK adults, published interim results for the half year to 30 June 2021 on 28 September. Overall, these showed a significantly lower loss before tax due to improved operational performance and lower below the line charges. The group also reported that current trading was ahead of plan primarily due to strong collections performance. Discussions with the FCA regarding the redress programme for guarantor loans custome

Companies: Non-Standard Finance Plc

20 Oct 21

UK Net Zero Strategy Helpful

We see the UK Government’s Net Zero Strategy as being overall helpful but not especially definitive. Amongst our coverage group, Drax Group (DRX LN) and Velocys (VLS LN) benefit from the Humberside CCS cluster prioritisation and Velocys from SAF support. The amount of renewables is likely to boost the need for flexibility solutions where Drax, Gore Street (GSF LN) and SIMEC Atlantis (SAE LN) can benefit. Hydrogen companies ITM (ITM LN) and Powerhouse Energy (PHE LN) are likely to find support. T

Companies: ADN DRX GSF ITM NESF PHE SAE SIT STRLNG TLG VLS

22 Oct 21

University of Qld purchases ARCEMY module

AML3D Ltd (ASX:AL3) was established in 2014 to commercialise WAM® (Wire Additive Manufacturing), an additive manufacturing technology for the cost-effective production of large, high-performance metal components and structures. AL3 listed on the ASX in April 2020 at $0.20/share, raising $9m, and raised an additional $7m in October 2020 to hasten the commercialisation programme. The company has established a contract manufacturing facility in Adelaide, is establishing a similar facility in Singap

Companies: AML3D Ltd

22 Oct 21

Stellar Q1 result, revenue up 81%, upgrading FY22 forecasts

Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics, consumer insights and media company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers. The company has an established position delivering insights to clients across 89 countries and has captured through its panel fully declared, deep consumer profiles, first-party data and insights. Pureprofile has reported a 61% increase in Q1 FY22 sales revenues to $10.2m and Q1 EB

Companies: Pureprofile Ltd.

21 Oct 21

Ongoing record revenue generation and benign cost of risk

The third quarter continued to enjoy record CIB revenues and loan provision recoveries. Consensus expectations have now largely aligned with our projections, thus leaving limited upside potential in our view.

Companies: Barclays PLC

21 Oct 21

Q3 update falls short of expectations

Rentokil’s Q3 FY2021 trading update came in behind our and consensus estimates. The positive impact of organic revenue growth in the core businesses and bolt-on acquisitions was partially mitigated by the unwinding of disinfection revenue. While management maintained FY2021 guidance for the core businesses to generate mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, the share price dropped c.2% today on the back of an underwhelming Q3 update. We will tweak our estimates and target price, and are likely

Companies: Rentokil Initial plc

21 Oct 21

Q3 signals tapering of COVID-19-related windfalls

Eurofins’ Q3 revenue came in slightly ahead of street expectations, but the share price came under pressure today (down c.7%). Although management raised its FY2021 revenue outlook, it kept EBITDA guidance unchanged, implying a softer profitability (albeit still improving yoy). This is attributable to COVID-19-related testing demand moving away from margin accretive RT-PCR to cheaper rapid antigen tests. We will revise our estimates and target price to incorporate the Q3 update, while maintainin

Companies: Eurofins Scientific (ERF:EPA)Eurofins Scientific Societe Europeenne (ERF:PAR)

21 Oct 21

‘Green + growth’-focused investors day

Rio’s investors day was focused on two of the most critical mining industry thematics in today’s times, i.e. green and growth. The announced measures couldn’t have materialised at a better time, given the (recent) woes pertaining to governance and the iron ore market sell-off. Remember, considering Rio’s enviable balance sheet strength, it has the flexibility to pursue the targeted plans with rigorously and, at the same time, maintain ‘relative’ shareholder reward attractiveness. Hence, we reite

Companies: Rio Tinto plc

21 Oct 21

Critical Metals 'making good progress towards completion of first potential acquisition'

21 Oct 21

Q3 brings lower bookings outlook for 2021

With its Q3 results, Software AG reported another consecutive quarter of total revenue growth. This was mainly driven by Digital Business. Bookings growth in Digital Business was affected by deal slippages. The shift to SaaS though, remained strong and annual recurring revenue also grew yoy. A&N bookings were better than expected. Operating margins were in line with expectations. The group, however, revised its bookings outlook for the year, which was a tad negative in our view.

Companies: Software AG

21 Oct 21

Q3 21 impressive...before a softer Q4

Q3 21 showed an accelerating level of revenues and order-intake Margins held up remarkably well That said, the outlook for Q4 looks softer (from a high level) We will fine-tune our estimates after this release, with no big changes at first sight

Companies: Atlas Copco Ab-A Shs

21 Oct 21

Q3 21 trading statement: no real surprise

Q3 21 revenues were in line with the market’s expectations Some KPIs (churn rate, subscription rate) sent positive signals The mid-term targets look rather conservative to us We will not change our numbers much after this release

Companies: Solocal Group (LOCAL:EPA)Solocal Group (LOCAL:PAR)

21 Oct 21

Secure Trust Bank - Momentum building in Q3

In its Q3 trading update, Secure Trust Bank (STB) disclosed that it is experiencing robust loan growth. New business lending is now above pre-pandemic levels. STB’s core lending book in Q321 rose 3.3% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year. Motor finance new business grew 15% in just three months. New business lending in the quarter was up 20% and 59% on the previous quarter and 12 months ago. Net loan balances were £2,404m in Q321, which is in line with our end-FY21 forecast of £2,400m. We ther

Companies: Secure Trust Bank Plc

21 Oct 21

Q3: positive outlook

Rather bland release after the improvements seen in Q2. FY guidance is maintained and revenue is lower qoq (-5%), due to lower activity in subsea in the North Sea and Asia. However the EBITDA margin is stable in Subsea at 11.2% (vs 11.1% in Q2). The book-to-bill was 0.9, with $1.37bn of inbound orders, mainly from Petrobras with several long-term charter contracts for pipelaying support vessels. The positive comes from the $7bn of potential orders foreseen by management.

Companies: TechnipFMC Plc

21 Oct 21

Q3 brings another increase in outlook

SAP, in Q3, built up on the traction seen in cloud transition in the previous quarter. SAP posted encouraging numbers as ‘Rise with SAP’ gathered further momentum and attracted new customers as well. S/4HANA also continued to attract customers as demand remained solid. Consequently, licence revenues declined. Similar to the previous quarter, the group once again raised its outlook up a notch. However, we see no monumental change to our estimates.

Companies: SAP SE

21 Oct 21

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – 11.42p, Mkt cap £136m - Bushveld back on track with solid Q3 production and cost report

Bushveld is an integrated vanadium mining, processing and technology businesses. The South African group owns 74% of Vametco and 100% of the Vanchem. Bushveld Energy (84%) is developing solar powered, Vanadium Redox Flow Battery mining grid.

Companies: Bushveld Minerals Limited

21 Oct 21

Q3 21: NAV cools off on unlisted portfolio multiple contraction, lower earnings

Investor posted a subdued Q3 in terms of NAV progression, as the timid rise of the listed portfolio (driven by the share price performances of SEB and Sobi) was partly offset by a 2% valuation decline of Patricia Industries. The unlisted portfolio was affected by contractions of multiples and lower earnings, particularly from Mölnlycke. Supply-chain woes and high raw material prices paint a less upbeat outlook for Investor’s portfolio, probably explaining the widening discount to NAV.

Companies: Investor