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17 Sep 20

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd - Improving trading – increasing cash receipts

FY20A results largely reflect a period prior to the Covid-19 lockdown, yet show Duke entering a more challenging FY21E with momentum. Yesterday's trading update demonstrated another notable rise in quarterly cash receipts for Q2/21, as royalty partner trading continues to improve. As some partners' forbearance measures will expire this month, Q3/21 receipts should continue this upwardly momentum. This opens the door to a return to cash dividends at some future point. Today, Duke also confirms it is now seeking new royalty partners, alongside follow-ons.

Companies: Duke Royalty

23 Sep 20

Strix Group plc (KETL LN) - Accretive acquisition and outlook improving

Strix has announced the strategic acquisition of LAICA a family owned business in Vicenza, Italy for €19.6m in a mixture of cash and shares. It will be earnings accretive in FY21 and is scheduled to complete by the end of FY20, with just Italian government approval outstanding. ZC operating profit estimates are unchanged in FY20 but increase by c. 8% in FY21 to reflect the contribution from the deal, the impact on earnings is smaller due to the issue of shares and higher tax in Italy. Management believe significant synergies, both cost and revenue, will be derived from the deal over the next 2-5 years. The interim results had been well flagged in the comprehensive trading update in late July and today’s statement confirms that profitability remains in line with the guidance of achieving a flat performance yoy in FY20. The interim dividend of 2.6p is in line with last year and in keeping with the commitment to at least meet the 7.7p paid in FY19. Unlike most peers, Strix has maintained guidance as well as its commitment to pay a dividend and today’s acquisition unpins the continuing strategy of diversifying the business into areas offering greater growth.

Companies: Strix Group Plc

23 Sep 20

Confirmation of stellar H1

LoopUp has announced a very strong H1 period, in line with the previous trading update and reflecting a number of months of exceptional performance. This is allowing the business to invest in the major identified new opportunity, to provide telephony within Microsoft Teams, where the early signs are extremely positive. We look forward to further detail on the Teams pipeline and sales levels over time.

Companies: LoopUp Group plc

21 Sep 20

Interim results show resilience

Augean has reported interims to 30 June 2020. With the first half bearing the full impact of Covid-19, adjusted PBT decreased by 11% to £8.5m, which is in line with our expectation. With radioactive wastes, biomass for EfW and construction impacted by lockdown and depressed activity levels in its North Sea services, due to the low oil price, the results demonstrate the resilience of the Group and also the benefit of its key position in its markets with strategically located hazardous waste treatment and disposal facilities in the UK. Whilst the statement highlights that full year results are expected to be broadly in-line with market expectations, we have conservatively reduced forecasts. Nevertheless, with strong cash generation and sustained growth EV/EBITDA falls to 5.3x and 4.1x for FY21E and FY22E, a level that is substantially below sector constituents and transaction valuations.

Companies: Augean Plc

22 Sep 20

Litigation Capital Management - FY20 Results – Scaling up with strong returns

Litigation Capital Management has announced FY20 results with gross profit up 7% to A$21.7m and PBT of A$9.2m, slightly behind expectations albeit the Group had already flagged that delays to 3 cases during the year would result in resolutions in FY21, thereby impacting FY20 results. That said, excellent strategic progress through the year and good news flow as well as increasing scale suggests more value to come. Reiterate buy

Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd.

22 Sep 20

Strong results plus transformational acquisitions

Full-year results to 31 May 2020 deliver revenue of £15.0m (+10.3%) and EBITDA of £6.8m (+36.0%) as noted at the acquisition of Quantuma Advisory. We continue to believe a key value driver of owning K3 shares is an investor’s exposure to the positive disruption being wrought by the company’s model, which now has the ability to be applied to synergistic markets across the addressable professional services SME sector as a result of the two recent acquisitions. The already proven restructuring and insolvency practice specifically has the potential to deliver significant upside in the current environment. We reiterate our estimates, noting EPS growth of 63% between 2020A and 2023E. Target price remains 300p, offering 100% upside from the placing price of 150p.

Companies: K3 Capital Group Plc

21 Sep 20

H1 2020 Interim Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported robust interim results in the context of the H1 2020 backdrop; solid production and the company’s fundamentally low cost base meant that CAML remained profitable despite the sharp pullback in commodity prices during the period which led to a 17% YoY decline in revenue to US$70.8m. Consequently, EBITDA was down 25% YoY to US$42.5m despite a decline in unit costs of 6% YoY at Kounrad and 9% YoY at Sasa to US$0.48/lb and US$0.43/lb respectively which cushioned the impact of the weaker the top line. With no significant one offs in the period, EPS of US$0.10/sh. was 33% lower YoY.

Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc

18 Sep 20

Cenkos: Trinity Exploration Production P

Trinity has announced a strong set of interim results during a highly volatile period, with production increasing by 9% year-on-year to 3,282bopd (H1/19 3,007bopd). Operating break-even's post hedging in H1/20 reduced to US$22.3/bbl, a 15% year-on-year reduction and a 65% reduction since 2014. Similarly, a relentless drive to improve efficiencies and reduce costs has seen G&A and opex fall by 67% and 65% respectively since 2014. Despite the dramatic fall in oil prices, Trinity's strong production performance combined with its receipt of VAT receivables via a VAT Bond sale and the drawdown of a small working capital facility facilitated cash balances increasing by 43% to US$19.7m from YE2019. Trinity is well positioned to grow both organically and inorganically, with Trinity signing MoU's and submitting EOI's (in consortium with Cairn Energy Plc) to pursue new opportunities of scale. We set our price target a 31p/share, a 248% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.

Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc

18 Sep 20

Growing long-term subscription revenues

Crimson Tide has reported a strong set of H1 results evidencing very strong sales momentum backed by long-term contracts and cash flow. H1 sales grew by 40% and EPS by 154%. Net cash has improved to £0.8m at June 2020 from nil at December 2019. The strategic focus on transportation and supermarkets is working well, partnerships are improving routes to market, and there is growing traction from investments in innovation. We have left our forecasts unchanged for now, but recognise positive pressure and have upgraded our target price from 3.1p to 4.3p. We reiterate our view that Crimson Tide’s valuation will be dictated by its ability to convert the significant opportunity rather than short-term metrics. H1 results show the group is nicely on track to do exactly that.

Companies: Crimson Tide Plc

23 Sep 20

Cenkos: Equals Group Plc -- Revenue growth through the headwinds

To achieve YoY revenue growth over H1/20A despite the challenges of Covid-19 and its impact on the travel sector is testament to Equals' resilience and increasing focus on B2B and International payments services. While weaker gross profit and EBITDA margins have impacted profitability in H1/20, we see potential for an earnings recovery in H2/20 given cost reduction measures currently being undertaken. This should lead Equals to cash breakeven in Q4/20 and FCF positive by early FY21.

Companies: Equals Group Plc

22 Sep 20

WHI Morning Comment: Judges Scientific (JDG) - Interim Results – Creditable and profitable H1. No changes to FY estimates

Judges Scientific is focused on acquiring and developing companies in the scientific instrument sector. Given the backdrop of H1, and the global nature of Judges' customer base, we see this morning's results as a significant achievement when set against the backdrop of significant COVID related headwinds. Revenue decreased by 6.8% (organic -12%) to £37.4m (H1-19: £40.2m) which, after the sensible management of the cost base, yielded an adjusted pre-tax profit of £6.4m (H1-19 £8.4m), a 22% reduction, and adjusted fully diluted EPS of 82.5p (H1-19: 107.0p). However, reflecting a commitment to its progressive dividend policy, and confidence in the business, the interim DPS is increased by 10% to 16.5p. With respect to H2, COVID related business risks remain, none of which are unique to Judges. However, given the relative strength of H1 (albeit at some expense to the order book), management flag ‘cautious confidence' in achieving full year market expectations. As such, our FY 2020E adjusted PBT and EPS estimates are unchanged this morning.

Companies: Judges Scientific Plc

17 Sep 20

WHI Morning Comment: Water Intelligence (WATR) - Interim results at upper end, standing out during Covid-19

WATR reports interim results this morning which reflect no slackening in the group's positive momentum, and which evidence again the effective business model. Adjusted PBT grew by a healthy 20% (statutory PBT growth of 33%), suggesting that the business continues to operate strongly and in such a way as to meet and exceed its targets again notwithstanding the challenges imposed on businesses generally by Covid. Within the overall growth momentum, both the franchise business and the Corporate division saw impressive margin gains, while franchise royalty succeeded in growing notwithstanding reacquisitions reducing the pool of franchises, a positive outcome. FY2020E forecasts are reaffirmed, although conservatively we leave them unchanged at this point. WATR is the only national US operator providing a leak detection service across the US, and this is a seriously large market – the insurance sector alone worth $US13bn p.a. above and beyond the traditional markets WATR has served. Now spanning clean and dirty water (Covid-19 opportunities), the company operates as an integrated entity and continues to generate new, value-added products. At current levels, we see significant upside to our 500p-plus fair value assessment, and note WATR's aspiration towards $US250m of underlying sales.

Companies: Water Intelligence Plc

17 Sep 20

Initiation of coverage

Water Intelligence (WI) operates in a sizable and expanding market. The Group provides minimally invasive water leak services and is building a distribution platform to leverage its installed and growing customer base. The company is a designated Essential Service Provider during CV19 and expects to see increasing demand for its products as the Green Economy gains traction. WI's management has a proven track record of developing new revenue streams and the Group's core services are uncorrelated to either the geopolitical or economic climate. Management is selectively reacquiring franchises and converting them to corporate-operated locations. This converts indirect revenue to a direct, higher-margin income stream under the same brand, and results in improved profitability and significant earnings accretion. We believe the shares trade at a substantial discount to fair value and initiate coverage with a target price of 452p. Our scenario analysis on page 20 demonstrates that the shares could rerate at closer to 600p based on the Group's current reacquisition strategy

Companies: Water Intelligence Plc

22 Sep 20

Cenkos: 1pm Plc -- Positive signs emerging over recent months

FY20 results reflect a year of trading in-line with earlier expectations, until being significantly interrupted in Q4/20 by the impact of Covid-19. Despite this, 1pm remained profitable throughout, despite accepting forbearance requests and prudently lifting bad debt provisions for the future. Post-period, there has been a noticeable pick-up in trading as the UK economy recovers, which 1pm is currently positioning itself for. A P/TNAV of 0.55x materially undervalues 1pm, hence we remain at “Buy”.

Companies: 1pm Plc

22 Sep 20

Ergomed - Adj EBITDA upgrade despite industry challenges

H120 adjusted EBITDA of £9.1m was the main positive surprise for us in Ergomed’s full interim report released today. We have increased our adjusted EBITDA forecasts to £18.3m (up 8.6%) in 2020 and £20.1m (up 6.8%) in 2021. A strong order book (£151.4m, up 22.0% from the end of 2019) with high visibility into 2021, continued overall business growth and a strong balance sheet should allow Ergomed to successfully navigate the COVID-19 pandemic, invest in organic growth and look for potential strategic acquisitions. Our valuation is upgraded to £409m or 845p/share.

Companies: Ergomed Plc

24 Sep 20

Cenkos: Davenport Resources Ltd -- European MOP

Davenport owns three perpetual mining licenses and two exploration licences covering 659km2 in the South Harz potash basin in central Germany. Davenport's experienced European-based management is now focussed on developing Europe's largest potash inventory of 5.3 billion tonnes at 10.8% K2O.

Companies: Davenport Resources Ltd.

23 Sep 20

Location Sciences: Verify is the future

Location Sciences Group PLC (LON:LSAI) is a high growth technology company and a global leader in location verification. The company recently reported results for the first half (H1) of 2020. These were in line with the trading update issued in July, with revenues up 1% (or +43% including securitis

Companies: Location Sciences Group Plc

23 Sep 20

Minor revisions for Q4/20 onwards

Yara will release its Q3/20 results on Tuesday 20 October. We have revised our Q3/20 estimates lower, mainly due to a stronger NOK as well as a weaker than previously expected CAN price. We have only fine-tuned our estimates for Q4/20 onwards, and stick to our Buy rating as well as our NOK 400 TP. The buy-back programme as well as extraordinary dividends should provide downside support, but an improved market balance is needed in order to raise our TP further.

Companies: Yara International ASA

23 Sep 20

Ethernity Networks: Initiation of Coverage

Companies: Ethernity Networks Ltd.

23 Sep 20

Utilico Emerging Markets Trust - Finding opportunities in technology infrastructure

Utilico Emerging Markets Trust (UEM) is managed by Charles Jillings at ICM Group. While the company has suffered a tough period of absolute and relative performance, Jillings is very encouraged by the prospects for the fund, given attractive valuations and businesses that are ‘delivering good results’. He believes he can be patient, waiting for UEM’s value to be realised, and in the meantime the trust offers an attractive dividend yield. The manager suggests that over time there is potential for UEM’s discount to narrow if sentiment towards emerging markets improves, which could be helped by a weaker US dollar. For these reasons, along with the potential for an uptick in performance, Jillings believes that it is an opportune time to consider an investment in an emerging markets fund.

Companies: Utilico Emerging Market

23 Sep 20

Cenkos: Davenport Resources Ltd -- Kieserite Resource

Davenport announced a maiden JORC-compliant Inferred Kieserite resource for the northern part of its Nohra-Elende project totalling 768 million tonnes grading an average of 8.1% Magnesium Sulphate but increasing to 20% in places. The resource area contains approximately 72 million tonnes of Kieserite (MgSO4.H2O), a fertiliser nutrient. Nohra-Elende offers a diversified basket of pure and value-added fertiliser products well-suited to the European market and favourably located.

Companies: Davenport Resources Ltd.

23 Sep 20

Cenkos: 88 Energy Ltd -- De-Risking Project Peregrine

Advanced amplitude vs offset (AVO) studies have identified several similarities between the ConocoPhillips' 450-750mmbo Willow oil discovery and 88 Energy's Project Peregrine prospects, Merlin and Harrier. In particular, the fluid factor signatures between the Willow oil discovery and the Merlin and Harrier prospects are very similar. This recent analysis builds upon previous seismic reprocessing work, conducted in 2019, which indicated that the same shelf margins and geology extend from the Willow oil field, south into 88 Energy's acreage, with analogous seismic signatures evident in both the Harrier and Merlin prospects. Farm-out discussions are ongoing, with 88 Energy targeting a year-end completion in preparation of the drilling of two wells at Project Peregrine in Q1/21. In our view, the AVO work is highly encouraging, further de-risking both the Harrier and Merlin prospects.

Companies: 88 Energy Ltd.

23 Sep 20

Litigation Capital Management reports 'tremendous growth in overall portfolio of investments

23 Sep 20

Riding high with the stay-at-home trend

Kingfisher was resilient during H1 20/21, as DIY demand recovered strongly during Q2 20/21 – the group’s operating cost management was also much better than our expectations. More importantly, the company’s robust trading backdrop has sustained during August and September so far (+16.6% yoy lfl sales). While the surge in DIY demand is an industry phenomenon (and still unclear how long will it last), we turn more positive on Kingfisher’s new trading strategy, which has shown initial green-shoots.

Companies: Kingfisher plc

23 Sep 20

Genmab in a legal mess with partner Janssen

Genmab has initiated a legal fight with partner Janssen over royalty payments for multiple myeloma drug, Darzalex. There are two bones of contention – royalties for the subcutaneous formulation and the tenure of the payments. In a worst case scenario, wherein Genmab’s loses both the battles, the Danish firm’s value could reset lower by c.20%.

Companies: Genmab A/S

23 Sep 20

Keeping faith

In June, faced with the task of replacing its longstanding portfolio manager, Alistair Mundy, Temple Bar Investment Trust’s (TMPL’s) board reiterated its commitment to a value style of investing. The board has now opted to hand the management contract to Nick Purves and Ian Lance of RWC Partners, two managers with considerable experience of managing income portfolios using a value-style approach. Value investing, where managers buy stocks that are valued more cheaply than market averages – based on measures such as price/earnings, price/book and yield – is deeply out of favour. The RWC team says that value stocks have never looked more unloved in the 30- odd years that they have been managing money. In their view, this makes it imperative that TMPL investors keep faith with the strategy and it also means this is an attractive entry point for new investors. One important change, however, is a cut to TMPL’s dividend to a level that the RWC team believes will be more sustainable.

Companies: Temple Bar Investment Trust

23 Sep 20

SP Angel . Morning View

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ LN) – BUY – Dividend up ~30% on robust FCF with a potential for a special dividend in Q1/21 on expected strong H2/20 | Base Resources* (BSE LN) – Director change | Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – Ilmenite prices rise further as demand for feedstock lifts already tight market | European Metal Holdings (EMH LN) – German engineering firm appointed for Cinovec | Hummingbird Resources (HUM LN) – Dugbe funding update Panther Metals (PALM LN) – New exploration targets identified at Big Bear gold project | Vast Resources* (VAST LN) – Chiadzwa Community Diamond Concession update

Companies: AAZ JAY EMH HUM PALM VAST

23 Sep 20

Cenkos: Creo Medical Group Plc -- Progress despite COVID

Creo Medical has reported strong H1/20A and post-period performance. While COVID has impacted the company's ability to market its products in hospitals, at commercial events and provide training during 2020 Creo has continued to book commercial orders, provide remote training, receive regulatory clearances for new devices and complete a significant acquisition. We believe that as healthcare systems begin to recover from the impact of the pandemic, the benefits of Creo's technology could come to the fore, offering shorter procedure times and outpatient treatments. The company closed H1/20A with cash of £70.6m.

Companies: Creo Medical Group Plc