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25 Mar 20

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Best placed miner to weather the storm

Sylvania's share price has fallen 53% since its peaked on the 21st Feb, as the global economy hit the brakes. The short term demand outlook for PGMs is miserable, with supply chains breaking down as both luxury goods and car sales sales collapse.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum

23 Mar 20

WHI Equity Research: Spectra Systems (SPSY)

Results ahead; forecast upgrades, special dividend, yielding 7% SPSY has announced a strong set of results, with EBITDA and PBTA some 6% and 4% respectively ahead of our forecasts, following a succession of upgrades and some notable wins during 2019. Reflecting the strong momentum, and with forecasts well supported by firm contracts which exist independently of the current global crisis, the company is (1) trading ahead of expectations in the current year, and (2) with strong cashflow, feels confident to announce a special dividend this morning to be paid in June. With meaningful upgrades to the current year, and new, progressive, forecasts for FY2021E, the current outlook is strong at a time when this is rare for a mid-cap company; while key opportunities developed over the past eighteen months continue to be highly promising. SPSY provides advanced technology solutions for banknote, product authentication, and secure lottery transactions as a highly specialised operator, working in fields which offer valuable respite from Covid 19. Cash of $US14.3m is ahead of our expectations and some 13% ahead YoY. Well-invested and with well-controlled costs (and high gross margins), today's results provide further support for our fair value assessment, which in turn is far ahead of the current share price.

Companies: Spectra Systems

26 Mar 20

Somero Enterprises

Trading below its 5-year PE low, compelling entry point

Companies: Somero Enterprises

25 Mar 20

LIBERUM: GAN* - SaaS resilience as outlook confirmed

GAN has provided an update today on the Italian and US real-money internet sports betting outlook, as well as the momentum they are seeing in their core Simulated Gaming operation. Management have confirmed current guidance, which underscores the high underlying growth and the diversified resilience of their SaaS model. The company is on-track for a NASDAQ listing, hopefully in Q2. No material change to forecasts or our Target Price of 200p

Companies: GAN Plc

25 Mar 20

IQE - Well positioned to withstand near-term uncertainty

Yesterday’s trading update confirms that IQE’s FY19 results will be in line with the revised guidance it provided in November when the full extent of the impact of the US-China trade war became visible. We have cut our FY20 revenue estimate by 6%. In IQE’s case the impact of COVID-19 on global handset demand is likely to be softened by gaining share in both the wireless and photonics markets. However, the full effect of the pandemic on the global economy and IQE’s business remains to be seen.

Companies: IQE

30 Mar 20

Interims – pre-COVID growth

Bioventix delivered a strong set of interims, with revenues up 21%. Given the 9% decline in operating expenses, this resulted in a 31% increase in adjusted EBITDA, with adjusted pre-tax profit also rising 31% to £4.4m (52% of full-year forecasts) and adjusted EPS up 29% to 69.4p. An interim dividend of 36p was declared (+20%) with net cash at period end of £5.5m. Growth was driven by both Vitamin D antibody sales/royalties (+c.25%), its portfolio of other antibodies (+c.12%) and a more meaningful contribution from troponin. Given the inevitable disruption that COVID-19 will have to some testing volumes (although tests such as NTproBNP are likely to benefit from high risk COVID patients), we leave forecasts unchanged, confident that the strong H1 and weaker sterling in H2 should offset any potential H2 trading shortfall. We leave our forecasts unchanged and reiterate our 3750p target price. At this level, the stock would trade on a 30x FY 2020 P/E with a free cashflow yield of 3.1x

Companies: Bioventix

24 Mar 20

CloudCall

COVID-19 profit warning on increased uncertainty

Companies: Cloudcall Group

27 Mar 20

Hurricane Energy

Worker evacuated from Lancaster FPSO

Companies: Hurricane Energy

27 Mar 20

Cenkos: 1pm plc -- Supporting UK SMEs through difficult times

1pm has provided a trading update outlining its response to the current Covid-19 outbreak. Operations continue as usual (remotely) and the group continues to write new business, however, it has received multiple requests for repayment deferrals. The group is offering this flexibility where merited to assist credit worthy UK SMEs and has the balance sheet to absorb these lower cash collections. 1pm's own funders remain supportive to the business. Given the uncertainty over the duration of the outbreak and the impact the UK's shutdown is having on 1pm's trading, we withdraw forecasts and put our recommendation under review.

Companies: 1PM

25 Mar 20

The Industrial Revelation

US & German manufacturing PMI hits lowest readings since 2009, UK manufacturing PMI heads below 50, BorgWarner expects material financial impact from customer production halts

Companies: AVON CGS HAYD HEAD HILS JHD RNO SCPA TWD TRI ZTF SOM GHH

26 Mar 20

COVID-19 induced demandpause

3 weeks ago, we thought the coronavirus would be a Chinese/Italian phenomena impacting global supply chains, but not triggering full/partial lockdowns across large swathes of the planet. How things have changed.

Companies: Mpac

25 Mar 20

Hurricane Energy

Capital Markets Day postponed

Companies: Hurricane Energy

27 Mar 20

LIBERUM: Non-Standard Finance - Prudent actions taken should position the business well

We believe that NSF’s response to the current pandemic is in the interests of all its stakeholders. The operational shift towards remote working helps protect its staff whilst enabling its clients to continue to access the services they need. Similarly, its decision to reduce lending and focus on its existing clients and those most in need, is the prudent thing to do. These actions, combined with the high risk-adjusted margins on its existing loan book should enable the group to generate positive cash flow, even allowing for an increase in impairment during the current period of economic uncertainty. This should leave the group in a stronger position to serve its clients and win share when the current government restrictions are lifted. As a result, of this medium-term outlook we reiterate our BUY rating.

Companies: Non-Standard Finance

23 Mar 20

Impact of COVID-19 crisis

What’s new. After an encouraging seasonal increase in Purplebricks’ instructions in January and February 2020, activity in recent days has slowed sharply and we see prospects for a prolonged period of low activity during the COVID-19 crisis. Purplebricks is well capitalised with net cash of £41.6m on 30 October 2019. We expect group cash to be above £31m (i.e. 10p a share) on 30 April 2020 and 2021. In 2019 management began closing Purplebricks’ Australian and US units. In December 2019 the guidance of less than £14m was repeated, implying 2H costs of under £5m. An adjusted October 2019 net cash of £36m.

Companies: Purplebricks Group

24 Mar 20

FY 2019 beats forecasts and sets course for dividends

This was another very good year for MMX, with a comfortable beat of forecasts as management continues to execute its strategy of improving both the ‘quantum and quality’ of its revenue base. The one-off brokered sales (many from .vip in China) are steadily being replaced by rapid growth in new registrations of a much wider range of gTLDs and growing renewal revenue, all automated through the global registrar network – but more in Europe and the US. Group revenue jumped 25% YoY, assisted by strong new sales across the portfolio, the launch of a new brand protection product, and a FY (an extra five months) of the ICM acquisition while the outsourced platform model is keeping the cost base relatively flat so margins and profits are rising. MMX ended the year with $6.6m net cash and will revisit the intended maiden dividend in September, after the pandemic subsides. Given its automated business model and the switch of business and leisure online, this global issue may well be beneficial to MMX. However, with the current level of uncertainty in the global economy, we place forecasts Under Review.

Companies: Minds + Machines Group

30 Mar 20

WHI First Light: Caspian Sunrise (CASP)

Caspian Sunrise announced that the shallow Well 150 at the MJF structure has been perforated and tested at 500 b/d. Caspian Sunrise indicate that its total production would be approaching 1,800 b/d with the contribution of Well 150. The shallow Well 153 being drilled into the same structure has drilled to 1,956m without incident and is progressing to the expected total depth of 2,500m

Companies: Caspian Sunrise

30 Mar 20

WHI First Light: Caledonia Mining (CMCL)

Caledonia today provides an update on its Blanket mine in Zimbabwe in the light of the full lockdown other than “for essential services” from today as ordered by President Mnangagwa. The mine is still operating as the authorities will grant exemptions for businesses which demonstrate they can operate in a manner that contributes to the management of the spread of Covid-19 infections. Caledonia has applied for this exemption.

Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv

30 Mar 20

WHI Equity Research: i3 Energy (I3E)

Strategic Production Acquisition and TSX Listing i3 Energy announced today that is has entered an option agreement to acquire all of the outstanding shares of TSX listed Toscana Energy Income Corporation. Toscana produced on average 1,065 boe/d in 2019 and has 2P reserves of 4.65 mmboe of which 55% consists of oil (and natural gas liquids) and 45% consists of natural gas. Toscana's low-decline production is located in Western Canada. Toscana's lands include a very large holding over one of Western Canada's leading new oil plays targeting the Clearwater formation. i3 Energy has acquired the entirety of Toscana's $C28.2M of senior and junior secured debt for $C3.4M representing a price of $C0.12 per dollar of outstanding debt. i3 is now Toscana's secured lender. The debt purchase was funded with i3 Energy's existing cash resources. i3 Energy has agreed to issue up to 4,399,224 of its shares, representing circa 4% of i3 Energy's existing share capital to acquire the entirety of Toscana's shares, representing a market value of circa $C0.55M based on the market values of 27 March 2020. We believe the announcement represents a positive and transformational change for i3 Energy.

Companies: I3 Energy

30 Mar 20

Cenkos: Velocity Composites Plc -- Long-Term Prospects Unchanged

The first four months of FY20E showed good strategic progress. The Group won new business with a major Boeing parts supplier and gained new aerospace qualifications. However, current market conditions have caused disruption throughout the global aerospace supply chain. This has caused Velocity's customers to reduce short-term demand as they cut production rates to deal with disruption to their workforce availability due to the COVID-19 restrictions. As a result, we are withdrawing our forecasts from the market and move our recommendation to Under Review until macroeconomic conditions stabilise.

Companies: Velocity Composites

30 Mar 20

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector --

Oil declined for a fifth straight week amid a one-two punch from collapsing demand due to the coronavirus crisis and ballooning supply from producers vying for market share. Futures in New York slumped 4.8% on Friday and are poised for the biggest quarterly drop on record as weak demand and an onslaught of supply roil markets. Refineries across the globe are curbing consumption as fuel use declines with people staying home. Meanwhile, major trader Trafigura Group expects as much as 1 billion barrels to be sent into storage tanks. More oil is headed into stockpiles as the Russia-Saudi war for market share that exacerbated crude's crash this month shows no sign of abating. The kingdom held firm on Friday, saying it hasn't had any contacts with Moscow about output cuts or on enlarging the OPEC+ alliance of producers. Russia also doubled down, with Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin saying oil at $25 a barrel is unpleasant, but not a catastrophe for Moscow. US crude has tumbled about 65% so far this quarter. The crash has crippled domestic producers who are forced to cut production for the first time in 35 years. The International Energy Agency this week warned that global demand was in “free fall” amid coronavirus lockdowns. Meanwhile, Iraq -- OPEC's second-biggest producer -- will allow national oil companies to boost their output and export without imposing any ceiling. Algeria has asked for an emergency OPEC board meeting to discuss the cuts. It comes as one of the world's largest supertanker owners said that ships are being filled with crude at a record pace, as land storage rapidly diminishes. Prices:  West Texas Intermediate fell $1.09 to settle at $21.51 a barrel in New York on Friday. Prices dropped 4.1% this week.  Brent crude lost $1.41 to settle at $24.93 a barrel.  Swaps markets show that physical crude is selling several dollars below benchmark prices. The signs of storage starting to fill are growing, too. Inland tanks for heating oil in Germany are now full, while Pakistan banned oil imports on Thursday because its stockpiles are now sufficiently built up. Rigzone.

Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME POS TRIN UOG

30 Mar 20

Cenkos: OPG Power Ventures Plc -- COVID-19 Update

The Indian Government and Reserve Bank of India has announced several relief packages to combat the adverse impacts of COVID-19 and the lockdown implemented last week. The lockdown encompasses all non-essential industries and has resulted in OPG's industrial customer shutting down operations and reducing their short-term demand levels. As a result of the current market uncertainty, we are withdrawing our forecasts from the market and move our recommendation to Under Review until macroeconomic conditions stabilise. We believe OPG's strong portfolio of customers from diverse industries will enable it to quickly revert to normal operating levels once the situation improves.

Companies: OPG Power Ventures

30 Mar 20

Trading & COVID-19 update

Autins has issued a trading update covering the first five months of the current financial year which is noted to have been ahead of management expectations and much improved on the comparable period in FY2019. This performance reflects important cost control and operational efficiencies as well as success winning significant new business. However, the impact of COVID-19 has now seen automotive OEM plant shutdowns and management expects significantly reduced demand for its products for the foreseeable future, resulting in a material reduction in the Group’s financial performance and outturn for FY2020. Given the uncertainties we have withdrawn forecasts.

Companies: Autins Group

30 Mar 20

Allenby Capital TMT Update - 30.03.20 (BIRD.L, ECSC.L, TERN.L, STAR.L)

Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 10.25p/£34.4m) | ECSC Group Plc* (ECSC.L, 72.5p/£6.6m) | Tern plc* (TERN.L, 4.75p/£12.8m) | Starcom plc* (STAR.L, 0.925p/£3.2m)

Companies: BIRD ECSC TERN STAR

30 Mar 20

COVID-19 update, as expected

Adevinta announced yesterday that trends have weakened ref COVID-19 No great surprise at all, and should be reflected in the current valuation We expect Italy and Spain, and secondly France, to be hardest hit M&A optionality should give some downside support, we believe

Companies: Adevinta ASA

30 Mar 20

Suspends its fixed dividend

Webstep announced that it will suspend its NOK 1.6/share dividend ..this is changed to an authorization to resolve a dividend based on 2019 The dividend authorisation will be placed on the AGM agenda on 7 May

Companies: Webstep ASA

30 Mar 20

LIBERUM: Kier Group - COVID statement highlights essential services

Sites at Kier were paused for a day, but 80% have re-opened. The government is the key customer and is supportive.

Companies: Kier Group

30 Mar 20

VSA Morning Flow Test

Egdon Resources (EDR LN) has previously highlighted that whilst the reprocessing of seismic data at Biscathorpe had been completed the technical analysis and interpretation of the results had yet to be completed. EDR has today announced the results which confirm a robust project with further upside potential.

Companies: Egdon Resources