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30 Mar 20

Interims – pre-COVID growth

Bioventix delivered a strong set of interims, with revenues up 21%. Given the 9% decline in operating expenses, this resulted in a 31% increase in adjusted EBITDA, with adjusted pre-tax profit also rising 31% to £4.4m (52% of full-year forecasts) and adjusted EPS up 29% to 69.4p. An interim dividend of 36p was declared (+20%) with net cash at period end of £5.5m. Growth was driven by both Vitamin D antibody sales/royalties (+c.25%), its portfolio of other antibodies (+c.12%) and a more meaningful contribution from troponin. Given the inevitable disruption that COVID-19 will have to some testing volumes (although tests such as NTproBNP are likely to benefit from high risk COVID patients), we leave forecasts unchanged, confident that the strong H1 and weaker sterling in H2 should offset any potential H2 trading shortfall. We leave our forecasts unchanged and reiterate our 3750p target price. At this level, the stock would trade on a 30x FY 2020 P/E with a free cashflow yield of 3.1x

Companies: Bioventix

31 Mar 20

Strong FY19 results highlight Tremor’s potential

Tremor has reported a strong set of FY19 results and announced a prudent $10m buyback. The results are in line with January’s trading update, and demonstrate strong growth in Digital Video and Connected TV (CTV) advertising. Tremor has also seen a solid start to FY20, but COVID-19 could markedly affect a number of its clients. The management and board highlight that it is too early to fully assess the impact of COVID-19 on Tremor’s FY20 outlook, and we consequently leave our FY20 estimates broadly unchanged at this point. In this report we also explain Tremor’s investment case in depth, and highlight that Tremor is excellently positioned to capitalise on the major growth in Video and CTV advertising, and can see further upside from M&A and the resolution of the Uber case.

Companies: Tremor International

01 Apr 20

Cenkos: Seeing Machines Ltd -- Auto license deal with $5m upfront

Seeing Machines Limited has announced that it has won a pre-production license deal with a major Automotive Tier 1 partner. This has been entered into under the terms of a pre-existing non-exclusive Collaboration Agreement to provide Seeing Machine's Driver Monitoring System (DMS) technology for an ongoing Automotive programme. For this Seeing Machines will receive a non-refundable pre-production license fee of US$5m before 30 June 2020, in addition to future volume based royalty payments for the above mentioned Automotive programme. Seeing Machines will retain all intellectual property rights associated with its DMS technology licensed to the counterparty under the Agreement.

Companies: Seeing Machines

31 Mar 20

Strong trading update

Kape has issued a strong Q1 trading update, noting a modest acceleration in Digital Privacy demand trends as a function of Covid-19 related travel restrictions. Remote working increases the number of potential vulnerabilities within a user’s network, which Kape’s VPN offering solves through provision of secure and private browsing solutions. Kape has been able to successfully service the acceleration in demand, whilst at the same time implementing its own remote working policy to ensure business continuity. Management have reiterated guidance for $120m - $123m of revenues and EBITDA of $35m - £38m, with the uplift in demand providing added headroom in forecasts. Our FY’20E forecasts generate an FCF yield of >5%, which is well underpinned by strong renewal rates and flexibility around direct marketing spend.

Companies: Kape Technologies

31 Mar 20

Kape Technologies

COVID-19 update – on track and good liquidity

Companies: Kape Technologies

02 Apr 20

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd -- Assessing the impact across the portfolio

The scaling of Duke's royalty portfolio was progressing as expected up to March 2020, with record cash receipts that month. Due to Covid-19 and the UK's economic shutdown, macro conditions have worsened and become highly uncertain. This is likely to see some royalty partners' future cash royalties decline, which in turn, will negatively impact FV's in the FY20E results. Duke's high margin and cash generative nature ensures it is well placed to trade through these challenges. Given the degree of uncertainty in outlook, we remove forecasts and put our recommendation Under Review and await further clarity on the portfolio.

Companies: Duke Royalty

30 Mar 20

LIBERUM: Alpha FX* - Update as global trade slows

Alpha has released an update today, which highlights the impacts of the recent global lockdown and extreme FX volatility on the trading and working capital of their clients. We have reduced this year’s revenue forecast by 14% and EPS by 24%. We show the Company has sufficient capital to hit these revised forecasts and importantly has a business model, capital structure, technology platform and client proposition to continue to take share and return to high-growth when economies normalise.

Companies: Alpha Fx Group

30 Mar 20

Swift action enables us to look through a lost year

Belvoir’s FY 2019 results were strong, with adj. EPS up 13% (13.6p vs our forecast 13.0p) and strong cash generation. COVID-19 will affect property sales in FY 2020 but lettings (61% of 2019 gross profit) will be more resilient, helped by the Government’s measures to support employment and incomes. Management has reacted quickly, reducing costs and putting plans in place to support franchisees. We now forecast a ‘lost year’ in FY 2020, assuming five months of no sales activity, a significant reduction in financial services and a reduction in lettings fees, partly offset by a £1.5m cost reduction. The capital light franchise model, inherent high levels of cash generation and no final dividend for 2019 mean we forecast gross cash of £2.0m at December 2020, down from £3.6m. Belvoir is in good financial shape to weather the storm and support its franchisees before returning to normal activity. The success of the strategy was again evidenced by a strong start to 2020 prior to COVID-19.

Companies: Belvoir Lettings

02 Apr 20

Time to be patient

Storms eventually blow over, even CAT 5 hurricanes like COVID-19, which has grounded airlines, cruise ships & travel firms worldwide. Together with forcing many others to close, namely pubs, restaurants, hotels and more recently construction sites.

Companies: Watkin Jones

03 Apr 20

Bango - Finding a new Audiens

In a remarkable coup for Bango, Korean technology leader NHN Corp is taking control of the Audiens Customer Data Platform (CDP) business by investing £6.5m for a 60% stake in the holding company, Bango Deep Ltd, with a view to scaling up Audiens through support and technology into a truly world-class CDP provider. NHN is further securing and deepening its relationship with Bango itself by taking 3.5m Bango ordinary shares (4.7% of the expanded Bango) for £3.2m. This is an excellent deal for Bango, sealed at a time of restricted travel and tightened commercial prospects and possible only because Bango is already partnered, and trusted by the Korean technology giant. The deal takes a non-core, near-breakeven business off the Bango P&L and sharpens management focus, while maintaining a substantive interest in what – now backed by NHN’s cash, expertise and data technology – should become a major global player in the lucrative, high-growth CDP market. On top of this, Bango strengthens its balance sheet with a cash injection and the strategic partnership between NHN and Bango itself is substantively deepened. We adjust our FY 2020 forecast for the change in Audiens accounting status and the cash injection, and highlight the value.

Companies: Bango

06 Apr 20

LIBERUM: SigmaRoc* - Strong liquidity position and cash flow maximisation

SigmaRoc has issued an update on the impact of Covid-19 containment issues. It is adopting a pragmatic approach, operating facilities where this can be done safely and in compliance with government guidelines, and subject to demand (which continues to come from maintenance, agriculture and infrastructure).

Companies: Sigmaroc

01 Apr 20

Cenkos: RA International Group Plc -- Covid-19 delays but robustly positioned

RA's core business activity is the provision of remote site and mission critical life support services in many challenging locations around the world, often in very difficult circumstances. RA remains well placed to continue to operate successfully during this Covid-19 uncertainty though in recent days it has become clear that some customer projects will be delayed. With the timing of delivery of some contracts in 2020 uncertain we are temporarily withdrawing our 2020 forecast. With its rapid deployment capability, RA has coped well with contract delays before. Recent FY19 guidance has indicated revenue ahead of expectations, demonstrating a significant delivery of revenue during H2/19 vs H1/19. We remain Buyers given RA's demonstrably strong balance sheet, NGO, governmental and global corporation client base. Given its operating capabilities with long-term supply chain planning, we anticipate RA should quickly return to normal operating levels once the Covid-19 spread and resultant restrictions subside.

Companies: RA International

03 Apr 20

Supercharging customer data with an expanded Audiens

Bango has announced the expansion of its strategic relationship with NHN Corp, the Korean big data giant. NHN is investing £6.5m to take a majority interest in the Audiens business, owned by Bango. For its investment NHN gains a 60% stake in Bango Deep, the Bango subsidiary which owns the Audiens Customer Data Platform (CDP). NHN will inject its data science technology into Audiens to grow it into a world leading CDP. In addition, NHN has also subscribed for 3.5m new ordinary shares in Bango – 4.7% of the group’s existing ordinary share capital. Bango paid approximately £4m for Audiens. NHN is paying £6.5m for 60% of that business. We revise estimates following the announcement to reflect that Audiens will no longer be fully consolidated in Bango’s accounts. We believe the deal validates Bango’s investment in Audiens and represents a significant vote of confidence in both the data monetisation business and in Bango itself, by a highly successful commerce leader.

Companies: Bango

01 Apr 20

A seismic shift in the way we live and work

The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.

Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO

25 Mar 20

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Best placed miner to weather the storm

Sylvania's share price has fallen 53% since its peaked on the 21st Feb, as the global economy hit the brakes. The short term demand outlook for PGMs is miserable, with supply chains breaking down as both luxury goods and car sales sales collapse.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum

06 Apr 20

Corero Network Security sees strong pipeline as its customers are 'essential services'

06 Apr 20

Stimulus measures can send gold above US$2,000 says WisdomTree Investments's Shah

06 Apr 20

BRR - Test event

06 Apr 20

Bitesize Briefing – Difficult headlines, discounted markets

06 Apr 20

AAC Clyde Space - GEMS shines amidst the murk

While working under the operational adjustments required by COVID-19, it is pleasing to see continuing business development activity at AAC Clyde Space. The award of a follow-on SEK8m contract from Orbital Micro Systems for a 6U satellite is due to the success of a 3U in-orbit demonstrator deployed in July 2019. At present, disruption to operations at AAC Clyde has been limited and we maintain our forecasts, although welfare measures for employees could have some impact if they extend into H220.

Companies: AAC Clyde Space Ab

06 Apr 20

Nurnberger Beteiligungs - FY19 earnings ahead of guidance

Nurnberger Beteiligungs (NBG) continues to operate in a challenging interest rate environment limiting its net investment income and translating into higher additions to the Zinszusatzreserve (ZZR) despite the regulatory changes to its calculation introduced some time ago. Nevertheless, it was able to post solid results in FY19, with net profit ahead of management expectations. Consequently, management proposed a 10% increase in the dividend to €3.3 per share. Uncertainty around the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the economy limits future earnings visibility.

Companies: Nuernberger Beteiligungs

06 Apr 20

Global deliveries fall 20.6% on Coronavirus impact

The Q1 figures give us a first glimpse of the effect of the Coronavirus outbreak on BMW’s volumes, with China posting the most significant decreases. As the gradual recovery of the Chinese market takes place, the concern in Q2 will be centred on Europe and the US. Lockdown measures and production halts are bound to stifle volumes even further.

Companies: Bayerische Motoren Werke

06 Apr 20

Mosman Oil and Gas has reviewed operations and preserving cash to get it through crisis

06 Apr 20

APQ Global cuts dividend and scales back management incentive plan as it deals with uncertainty

06 Apr 20

SP Angel . Morning View

Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) 25.0p, Mkt Cap £17.5m – CEO of La Mancha joins the Board | Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 94.5p, Mkt Cap £123.6m –Operations resume at Proyecto Riotinto| Chesterfield Resources (CHF LN) – Cyprus lock-down forces suspension of drilling | Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) 29.4p, Mkt Cap £39.6m – Further diamond sales | Kore Potash (KP2 LN) 0.62p, mkt cap £9.5m – EIA approval for 25 years | SolGold* (SOLG LN) 17.7p, Mkt cap £334m – SolGold honey

Companies: ALS ATYM CHF GEMD KP2 SOLG