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22 Jan 20

Q4 ahead of expectations, boosting cash and dividend

The FY update highlights a stronger Q4 than expected, with a rebound in US sales after a weak H1 and initial SkyScreed sales. This results in an uplift in revenue, profit, and cash guidance for the year, thereby also boosting the underlying and supplemental dividend. This results in an eye-catching current year yield of 7.3% and undemanding P/E of 9.4x. We maintain our 380p price target, which offers good upside potential.

Companies: Somero Enterprises

27 Jan 20

Cenkos: Equals Group Plc -- Strong growth confirmed with B2B pivot

Today's update confirms Equals has delivered a second straight year of material revenue and profit growth, despite difficult market conditions, with a significant shift in the revenue profile towards more profitable B2B customers. Given profit delivery has been slightly lower than expected, we rebase our forecasts to take a more prudent view of trading in years FY21E and FY22E, but we are confident Equals has now assembled the products, infrastructure and management it needs for strong growth.

Companies: Equals Group

27 Jan 20

Cenkos: TP Group Plc -- A year of significant growth

A positive trading update from TP Group confirms that the group traded in line with market forecasts for FY19E, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and Adj EBITDA, and an order book at an all-time high. The acquisition of Sapienza has provided the group with significantly enhanced space capabilities, as well as an expanded geographic presence. Trading on an ex-cash FY20E Adj P/E of c10.5x, we see considerable value in the shares. Buy.

Companies: TP Group

23 Jan 20

Another good performance despite the macro backdrop

Since listing in Aug 2017, Strix has consistently highlighted the resilience of its business through its ability to hit forecasts despite the uncertainty of trade wars, Brexit and slower consumer confidence. Today’s pre-close states it will again meet consensus profit expectations which is in the range of ZC’s estimates of £31.1m operating profit and £29.7m PBT. The controls business maintained its leading market share globally and in all regions with the market growing at a solid c. 4.5%. The Water division had a slower year growing at 6% but, as expected, performance improved in H2. Net debt of £26.3m is better than forecast due to a combination lower capex and better working capital. The shares have not participated in the Q4 rally partly because of the strong performance during the year (c. 38%). However, the valuation still looks compelling at 12.5x current year forecasts for a such a resilient business. The yield of 4.1% remains attractive with the company confirming it will increase the FY19 dividend by 10% to 7.7p

Companies: Strix Group

22 Jan 20

Somero Enterprises

FY19 trading update – significant upgrades to 2019 from better than-expected H2

Companies: Somero Enterprises

27 Jan 20

Kape Technologies

Upgrades post trading update; Reiterate Buy

Companies: Kape Technologies

21 Jan 20

Metronomic growth

dotdigital’s trading update to December reveals sales and adj. PBT growth in line with N+1 (and consensus) forecasts, while period-end net-cash of £22.5m infers >100% cash conversion. The company’s growth drivers remain consistent: geographical and ARPU expansion – here we flag 18% and 51% US and APAC growth respectively, meanwhile ARPU expanded 14% to £999/user/month. We expect ARPU to improve further, as more customers use the omnichannel functionality offered within the Engagement Cloud. Equally, international expansion should also remain a core theme, as here, DOTD’s low level of penetration in sizable markets provides a multiyear growth opportunity in our view. No changes to forecasts.

Companies: Dotdigital Group

23 Jan 20

The Industrial Revelation

UK industrial trends improves in Jan, South Korean GDP rises at fastest pace since Q3 17, Japan's exports miss but chip-making bounces in Dec

Companies: HEAD HTG JHD OXIG RSW GHH

28 Jan 20

Update confirms EBITDA growth

SimplyBiz has released a trading update, ahead of reporting its full year results on 10 March 2020, which confirms that trading is broadly in line with expectations: - 24% rise in Group revenues (1H19: £29.1m; 1H18: £24.2m); - 50% rise in adj EBITDA (1H19: £6.8m; 1H18: £5.2m); - Strong adjusted EBITDA margin of 27% (2018: 22%); Group net debt at end 2019 was £27.0m (30 June 2019: £30.1m).

Companies: Simplybiz

20 Jan 20

A doubly-strong finish to 2019

Kape has today published a trading update for its 2019 year. The group, in addition to the November acquisition of PIA, has revealed a strong close to the year, with Adjusted EBITDA slightly ahead of expectations. We make no changes to our revenue and EBITDA forecastsfor 2020, which remain within the range of guidance provided, but take significant comfort from the fact that Kape has now delivered both strong organic outperformance and a transformational acquisition in recent months.

Companies: Kape Technologies

23 Jan 20

Success over peak delivers substantial uplift in profit margins

The work to improve operational performance and gross margin continued to deliver results over the all-important 2-month peak trading period, with sales growth accompanied by significant gross margin improvement. As operating efficiencies are also beginning to be delivered too, management now expects full year profits to be at least in line with expectations. In addition, the capacity solutions being implemented at its 3 existing DCs will provide the necessary headroom to achieve its medium term growth plans without the need for further significant investment. This, and the enhanced level of profitability, means management can focus on driving new growth orientated projects during FY21. Having fixed the mechanics, 2020 is shaping up to be a good year for the group. Our fair value estimate is now 432p

Companies: Gear4music

28 Jan 20

LIBERUM: Luceco* - Second successive guidance increase

Luceco's FY trading update this morning raises its year ahead earnings guidance for the second consecutive year. FY19 is expected to beat by 3% and FY20 is now guided to be 6-11% above current market estimates for adjusted op.

Companies: Luceco

23 Jan 20

Solid FY19 update, still attractively valued

Strix FY 19 trading update: ahead of FY 19 results due on 18th March, Strix has issued a very reassuring year-end update. ‘Strix has delivered a solid performance during 2019 despite continuing global volatility driven by Brexit and USA China trade tensions…and expect to report profit after tax in line with market expectations.’

Companies: Strix Group

27 Jan 20

Product launches indicate growing momentum for year ahead

OptiBiotix ("OPTI") has had a strong start to 2020, with partners Agropur (US), Holland & Barrett (UK) and most recently Alfasigma (Italy) launching new products containing the company's microbiome-modulating functional ingredients. As an increasing number of products move to market, we remain positive as to the commercial potential of OPTI's functional ingredients as consumer awareness grows. The recent launches indicate growing momentum into 2020, when we expect existing agreements to start delivering substantial revenue streams and further demand for OPTI's products. We reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and 97p target price, based on our view that OPTI is at the beginning of a long-term revenue growth cycle.

Companies: Optibiotix Health

22 Jan 20

LIBERUM: NewRiver* - A resilient operating performance shows not all retail is the same

NewRiver's Q3 update confirms a resilient operating performance in a tough market overall, which should provide reassurance. Retail occupancy increased through Q3 to 96.1%, with lettings agreed 3% ahead of ERV.

Companies: Newriver Reit

28 Jan 20

CVC Credit Partners European Opps - Actively working on credit opportunities

CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities (CCPEOL) aims to achieve a blend of capital growth and income (it targets gross total returns pre fees of 8–12% pa, with c 5pp from income). It maintains two pools of assets – performing credit with assets acquired close to par and credit opportunities consisting of discounted assets. CCPEOL’s one-year NAV total return (to 10 January) was a modest 3.4% for the sterling shares and was assisted by positive returns in November and December. Throughout most of the year, performance was driven by the performing credit bucket. In turn, credit opportunity returns were muted as the company was working on a number of restructuring processes that we understand started to bear fruit at the end of 2019.

Companies: CVC Credit Partners Europn Opprtnity

28 Jan 20

Not such a bad momentum

SGS’s FY19 results came in broadly in line with consensus at the top line, while it beats expectations on the net profit and FCF. The group’s cost measures seem to bear fruit, and improved profitability, combined with a higher return to shareholders with a 2.5% increase in dividend to CHF80. SGS is a must-have stock as it is a leading TIC company, with a good diversification in its business lines and a healthy balance sheet.

Companies: SGS

28 Jan 20

FY19: a weak year-end. Q1 20 should show some sequential improvement

Q419 came in lower than expectations mainly due to destocking in Europe and maintenance in the US The outlook for Q120 suggests some improvement from this low basis Profitability for FY19 remained decent though, and the balance-sheet clean (gearing below 20%) We will most likely not change our numbers/target price much

Companies: SSAB

28 Jan 20

Bioenergy strength not very convincing

Novozymes reported mixed Q4 19 numbers – missing on topline but beating bottomline estimates. Sales came in at DKK 3,731m, up 1% on an organic basis, led by growth in Household. EBIT came in at DKK 922m and management proposed a final dividend of DKK 5.25/share. For FY 20, management expects topline growth of 1-5%, EBIT margin at ~27% and buybacks worth up to DKK 1.5bn. Following the Q4 numbers, we will be tweaking our estimates.

Companies: Novozymes

28 Jan 20

Good to be a family-backed company!

Wacker’s preliminary report confirmed our cautious view on company’s management as we think a necessary (?) write-down is one thing, but not providing a strategic solution for the ailing polysilicon business is another thing. The photovoltaic business value chain has become dominated by Chinese companies for many reasons over the past year, but there are only some small business adjustments in this regard. We highly recommend any kind of solution for Polysilicon.

Companies: Wacker Chemie

28 Jan 20

Bitesize briefing: Alaska’s North Slope

28 Jan 20

Coinsilium's Eddy Travia details MoU and strategic investment deal with IOV Labs

28 Jan 20

Cenkos: The Property Franchise Group -- Delivering well over 2019

TPFG has provided a positive update confirming FY19E results will be in-line with forecasts. We consider this a fine achievement given 2019's prolonged political uncertainty, the introduction of the tenant fee ban and a General Election. Cash generation also appears to have been very strong over FY19E. With a positive outlook, inclusive of full mitigation of tenant fee ban by mid-2020, we see upside to our FY20E forecasts, still seeing value despite the shares' recent strong performance.

Companies: Property Franchise Group

28 Jan 20

Money laundering still in the background...

Swedbank released its numbers for Q419. Profit before loan losses was positively impacted by better than expected trading results (vs. consensus expectations). The higher than expected net profit led to a solid CET1 ratio at 17% vs. 16.5% expected. No material information regarding the AML issue. Swedish and Estonian FSA conclusions are expected in March/April 2020 whereas the US authorities’ investigations should go on for another couple of years.

Companies: Swedbank

28 Jan 20

Jubilee Metals 'continuing to grow very strongly' with significant earnings boost

28 Jan 20

Euromoney Institutional Investor - Trading trends continue

Euromoney’s AGM update indicates that trading after Q1 remains on track for the full year, with underlying revenue flat year-on-year. Within this, the Pricing, Data and Market Intelligence segments are ahead (a 9% increase in Pricing subscriptions is particularly encouraging), while trading in the Asset Management segment continues to be soft. The net cash balance gives plenty of scope for acquisitions, regardless of the outcome of the Asset Management strategic review. The shares are trading at a wide discount to peers, around 33%, which we regard as unjustified on fundamentals.

Companies: Euromoney Institutional Investor

28 Jan 20

MaxCyte - delivering growth, highlighting value

MaxCyte (LON:MXCT)delivered a consensus-beating 30% step up in 2019 (FY19) revenues, driven by sales of licences for its proprietary cell engineering platform and early clinical milestones from some of its eight clinical/commercial licences, reaching a five-year revenue compound annualised growth r

Companies: MaxCyte

28 Jan 20

Stifel FirstEnergy Morning Research Package

Precision Drilling (PD-TSX); BUY, C$3.75 ― Management update: FCF profile compelling

Companies: Precision Drilling Corporation

28 Jan 20

Good demand for Feraccru in Europe

Shield Therapeutics (STX) is a commercial-stage company delivering specialty products that address patients’ unmet medical needs, with an initial focus on treating iron deficiency (ID) with ferric maltol. Recent news that the FDA had approved this drug for a broad indication opened up a market in the US currently worth over $1bn p.a. – a US partnership deal is expected in 2020. A 2019 trading update showed STX’s performance to be in line with expectations, with £0.6m in sales-related revenue from Norgine’s sales of Feraccru in Europe and £2.3m in milestones. STX’s cash runway extends into 2021, in the absence of a US deal.

Companies: Shield Therapeutics

28 Jan 20

Encouraging set of results

Beyond the quarterly loss that proved to be a surprise only for those who did not have the opportunity to attend the group’s Christmas dinner, we see the underlying operating performance as encouraging. This is confirmed by management’s decision to keep the dividend stable.

Companies: Bankia