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30 Jul 20

Belvoir Group - Forecasts upgraded, strategy continues to deliver

Since the restrictions were lifted in mid-May, Belvoir has seen a surge in activity due to pent-up demand, resulting in June being a record breaking month for the group’s Newton Fallowell estate agency network in terms of instructions and sales and the financial Services division in terms of written income. Management have stated that with the positive impact of the stamp duty reductions still to take effect they are confident that the Group is well positioned to capitalise on the current market upturn and to take advantage of the opportunities arising from more challenging conditions. We have upgraded our PBT forecasts for FY 2020 to the level we forecast pre-COVID. We have also upgraded our target price from 169p to 233p and highlight that H1 2020 has demonstrated the resilience of the group, management’s ability to navigate difficult market conditions and the power of the franchise-led strategy.

Companies: Belvoir Group Plc

03 Aug 20

Cenkos: Seeing Machines Ltd - Better trading than expected

Seeing Machines has released a trading update demonstrating the business is performing better than expected on key metrics: Revenues of A$39.7m were 13% ahead of our expectations of $35.1m and cash of A$38.7m was 21% ahead of our expectations of A$32.0m. We believe this strong end to the financial year reflects the continued demand for the company's Fleet product by sophisticated fleet owners and that the key home markets of Australia and New Zealand have been less affected by COVID than feared. We believe this strong cash performance should reduce the perceived funding risk weighting and help the valuation recover towards previous levels. We iterate our Buy recommendation and 7.2p price target.

Companies: Seeing Machines Ltd.

29 Jul 20

Avacta Group - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Avacta Group (AVCT), BCI Minerals (BCI), Destiny Pharma (DEST), Globalworth Real Estate Investments (GWI), Henderson Alternative Strategies Trust (HAST), Herantis Pharma (HRTIS), Jupiter Green Investment Trust (JGC) and Rockhopper Exploration (RKH). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website

Companies: Avacta Group Plc

04 Aug 20

Cenkos: Shearwater Group Plc -- Cautious on Covid

Shearwater delivered adjusted EBITDA ahead of expectations. FY20A was a strong year with the Group delivering maiden profitability and an enhanced margin profile. Cybersecurity and resilience are enduring themes but we are now cautiously presenting a picture of unchanged profitability in FY21E as a measure against the impact of COVID-19.

Companies: Shearwater Group Plc

03 Aug 20

Making the most of lockdown

As is characteristic of this company, management has acted swiftly to execute an additional acquisition, putting the placing proceeds to work with another immediately earnings-enhancing acquisition, creating a Group with diversified revenue and profits, significant growth potential and greater visibility in a post-COVID world. We reintroduce estimates with CAGR in revenues of 29% between FY 2021 and FY 2023 and a CAGR in EBITDA of 34%. Quantuma, an insolvency and restructuring specialist targeting SMEs, is being acquired for £26.95m from existing resources to give an EBITDA multiple of 7.47x (EBITDA March 2020: £3.6m). Our forecasts take into account the greater visibility and predictability that the recent acquisitions bring to the Group. Our new SOTP valuation arrives at a reinstated price target of 300p.

Companies: K3 Capital Group Plc

04 Aug 20

Games Workshop Group - Winning performance

Games Workshop’s (GAW) FY20 results show that demand post lockdown, during which the company initially suspended all trading, has surprised on the upside, leading to a greater profit outturn than recently anticipated by management. Management is aiming to grow revenue in FY21e, while maintaining the operating margin given a focus on leveraging Online (19% of group revenue) as the economic environment will likely lead to lower growth for Trade (52% of group) and a decline in Retail (29% of group) revenue. Our new forecasts for FY21e are for revenue to increase by 2.1% and PBT to decline by 5% due to lower royalty income.

Companies: Games Workshop Group Plc

30 Jul 20

Still winning major deals

Sopheon has this morning announced a major win for Accolade – the global snack food giant, Mondelez. The deal is good evidence that Sopheon continues to win material deals despite the pressures of COVID-19, and that its innovation management platform is genuinely market-leading. We continue to believe that the group will see a return to strength as the market slowly recovers, and see today’s announcement as a useful signal.

Companies: Sopheon Plc

03 Aug 20

Another positive trading update lifts forecasts

Byotrol released a further positive trading on the back of a strong Q1 FY 2021, citing product sales in excess of £3.4m in the quarter and for the business to significantly exceed full-year market forecasts. With the order book at the end of June still being c.£2m (similar to at 30 April) and continued improving supply chain management for biocidal ingredients, we have upgraded forecasts to reflect this outlook. We increase FY 2021 revenues, adjusted EBITDA and EPS by 15%, 38% and 55%, respectively. Consequently, we upgrade our target price to 10p, at which level the stock would trade on 3.7x sales. As previously indicated, we think the pandemic should result in a secular shift towards improved disinfection prevention, reducing the prospect of FY 2021 being a one-off exceptional performance. The prospect for further upgrades should current monthly revenues extend for longer than anticipated and additional IP monetisation events should not be discounted, in our view, either.

Companies: Byotrol Plc

03 Aug 20

The Ince Group plc* - Stabilisation and Cause for Optimism

While Ince's FY20 results are complex given the various movements in reported figures associated with accounting for the Ince International consolidation, our assessment is that there are emerging signs of increasing operational effectiveness and reasons for optimism for investors. The operating environment and outlook remains opaque and thus we keep our forecasts and recommendation for the Group withdrawn at this time.

Companies: The Ince Group plc

03 Aug 20

Signs Softcat as a reseller, momentum elsewhere

Smartspace released positive news for both Space Connect and SwipedOn on Friday, sending the stock nearly 50% higher. Space Connect has signed a distribution agreement with Softcat and the SwipedOn has posted 80% yoy growth in AAR. Encouragingly too, SMRT also flagged current net cash at £1.7m (vs. £1.9m in April) demonstrating impressive reliance despite a challenging macro backdrop. In fact, SMRT has adapted quickly and is proving a ‘Covid beneficiary‘, seeing strong inbound demand as customers look for safe news ways to conduct business. Reassured by this, we continue to believe that Space Connect and SwipedOn could be worth considerably more than the current market cap.

Companies: Smartspace Software Plc

29 Jul 20

Resilient performance and confident outlook

Hargreaves’ FY20 results are very solid indeed. As previously reported, the only noticeable impact from COVID was in the slippage of Blindwells’ land sales, which were due to conclude during the lockdown period. Site activity has resumed and sales remain on track to conclude in the current year. A final dividend of 4.5p has been declared and the outlook statement is measured but confident. We reintroduce forecasts today, effectively reinstating our pre-COVID expectations. Hargreaves is well positioned to deliver a period of significant, renewed growth with the prospect of a double digit dividend yield from FY22 as HRMS profits are distributed.

Companies: Hargreaves Services Plc

03 Aug 20

Rebound post lockdown

What’s new: Purplebricks Group results for the year to 30 April 2020, show the Australian and US units as discontinued; but include the Canadian unit sold for C$60.5m (i.e. £35m) in July. Investors will focus on the UK unit which revealed:  11% fall in UK revenue to £80.5m (FY19: £90.1m), as the number of instructions fell 23% (impacted by early Covid uncertainty and lockdown), but the average revenue per instruction “ARPI” rose 12% to £1,394;  UK gross profit margin improved to 64.1% (FY19: 63.0%);  UK marketing costs to revenue improved to 25.6% (FY19: 29.6%);  Spend on Digital capacity pushed UK operating costs 32% to £26.2m (FY19: £19.9m), as new management team pursued initiatives which are being “delivered at pace with significant opportunity for further innovation.”  UK adjusted EBITDA fell 53% to £4.8m (FY19: £10.2m).

Companies: Purplebricks Group Plc

29 Jul 20

Cenkos: Pelatro Plc -- Expansionary raise

Pelatro has raised $2.7m in an equity Placing to fund an expansion in sales headcount and marketing activities in order to further expand the business, subject to shareholder approval. The product suite is fully developed and ready to be taken to a much broader set of customers. The beneficial impact of this expansion should be felt from the end of 2021E onwards.

Companies: Pelatro Plc

30 Jul 20

Reduced credit loss absorption capacity

As expected, the quarter saw a sharp increase in loan impairments. However, one can wonder if the increase was not capped by the group’s willingness to keep its results afloat. Management’s downbeat guidance in terms of revenue recovery potential and cost reduction does not bode well as regards the group’s future credit loss absorption capacity.

Companies: Lloyds Banking Group

31 Jul 20

Cenkos: SkinBioTherapeutics Plc - Significant progress

SkinBioTherapeutics has provided a development update for its two lead commercial programmes, demonstrating strong progress towards accessing two significant market opportunities, cosmetic ingredients and psoriasis. Sederma, the division of Croda which is developing SkinBiotix, has completed initial manufacturing development and has progressed to scale up validation. Following completion of the AxisBiotix formulation development ahead of schedule, SBTX has established a protocol for a self-managed food supplement trial, designed to mitigate the restriction associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The trial is anticipated to commence in early 2021. We maintain our Buy recommendation.

Companies: SkinBioTherapeutics Plc

05 Aug 20

Serabi Gold - Drawdown period of convertible loan extended

04 Aug 20

Surprising resilience of Transportation & Logistics in Q2

While we were anticipating Bolloré’s Q2 to be tough, particularly for its transportation & logistics division, an unexpected rise in air freight and positive price developments supported the division’s trading results and profitability in H1. The proven resilience of Vivendi (and UMG in particular), in addition to stronger ‘core activities’ at the Bolloré level, point to a less gloomy outlook despite the challenges of a still uncertain H2 economic recovery.

Companies: Bolloré SA

04 Aug 20

Wires for tyres? Not this time!

Bekaert posted a 20.2% yoy revenue contraction, mainly affected by its 42.2% exposure to the tyre & automotive sector (-29.1% yoy) and 18.9% exposure to the Construction sector (-28.8% yoy). Limiting this contraction, the basic materials and energy & utilities sectors grew by 33.4% yoy and 10.6% yoy, respectively. This translated into a €87m EBIT (benefiting from lower overhead costs, temporary plant shutdowns, and an increased focus on higher margin activities). As of now, the company has not given renewed guidance.

Companies: Bekaert SA

04 Aug 20

H1 20: benefited from insignificant traffic dependence

Unlike other concessionaires, Sacyr has posted a good set of results with revenues up by 3.5% and EBITDA up by 10% despite being affected by COVID-19. It has also reiterated that its position is well hedged in Repsol and Repsol’s plummeting share prices will have no impact on Sacyr’s cash flow. The only red flag we would like to raise is its increasing gearing ratio even if management is reducing the recourse debt.

Companies: Sacyr SA

04 Aug 20

Upbeat guidance

Management provided reassuring guidance supported by a strong top-line resilience and relatively limited cost of risk inflation. It is committed to resuming a capital distribution by all means as soon as possible to return identified excess capital.

Companies: Intesa Sanpaolo SpA

04 Aug 20

An H1 chock-full of changes

Sanitary crisis notwithstanding, GBL had an eventful H1. A series of changes in terms of ownership structure, portfolio allocation and dividend policy show GBL is looking to reinvent itself, moving from a yield stock to be considered as more of a growth driven investment company. Still, investment activity over H1 and a clear outlook on FY21 dividends and beyond show that GBL will not stray far from its transparent and long-term oriented DNA.

Companies: Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA

04 Aug 20

Directa Plus CEO proud to play role in new Genoa San Giorgio Bridge construction

04 Aug 20

Redx Pharma PLC in a great place to move forward after Astra deal says CEO

04 Aug 20

Messy Surface, but Man-made resists

Oerlikon’s Q2 figures showed mixed performances. Man-made Fibres was (again) solid, while Surface Solutions collapsed. Management confirms the company’s commitment to delivering a mid-term EBITDA margin of 16-18%, supported by the restructuring in place.

Companies: OC Oerlikon Corp. AG

04 Aug 20

Health sells

DSM’s Q2 figures were strongly supported by Nutrition’s strong performance. Profitability could not be sustained as Materials could not get away from its chemicals’ nature, suffering from deteriorating profitability. The reported figures were a bit stronger than expected, but were in line with the street’s expectations. The strong impairment nobody had on their radar. Management is implementing additional cost-cutting measures in H2, which are expected to deliver annual savings of €25-30m.

Companies: Koninklijke DSM NV

04 Aug 20

Profitability and (hence) dividends were hammered

H1 results (especially profitability) were pretty weak, with the negative effect of COVID-19 being compounded by disruptions in PGMs and met coal. Cash flows were further impacted by temporary working capital build-up. Hence, dividends were cut by >50%. While copper and iron ore should provide valuable comfort, the concentration of operations in pandemic-vulnerable regions like Africa and LatAm is a major risk. As scope of any pertinent near-term recovery is unlikely, we are likely to maintain our cautious stock recommendation.

Companies: Anglo American Plc

04 Aug 20

Q2: dividend halves, pivot attempt sounds serious

The stock is up 6% at pixel time, which shows rather good prowess from management, as it also cut (for good) the dividend in half. As investors swallow the bitter pill, the low-carbon shift (and promises of higher valuations) make it easier to digest. Also helping was a decent cash generation in this quarter, thanks to BP’s trading unit.

Companies: BP Plc

04 Aug 20

Greggs - Gradual recovery expected

Greggs’ interim results were heavily affected by the estate closure for the majority of Q220, due to COVID-19. The key takeaways are that operating cash burn during lockdown was in line with management expectations, and current trading, albeit with limited data, indicates gradual weekly progress in revenue, described by management as encouraging. We assume recovery through H121e, before stabilising at a revenue run-rate equivalent to 90% of the level in FY19. The resulting EV/sales multiple of 1.2x for FY21e, is in line with recent multiples. It reflects lower estimated revenue in that year and uncertainty about the rate of recovery.

Companies: Greggs Plc

04 Aug 20

NAV sees an unlisted asset-led bounce-back in Q2

Following a challenging Q1 which saw Wendel’s NAV fall by a third. The valuation of the unlisted assets, which saw a major hit in the midst of the sanitary crisis, have now led the second quarter NAV bounce-back of +17.3%. Recovering valuation multiples and better than expected results on some of the portfolio companies support the positive NAV development and a stronger outlook for H2.

Companies: Wendel SE