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14 May 19

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd - Capitalising on more favourable terms

Duke has agreed modifications to the terms of three royalty agreements from the Capital Step acquisition. The effect is to unlock a minimum of £3.7m in additional revenues over the next 5 years. As a result, Capital Step's future revenue is expected to increase by 25%+ at no additional cost. This realises a key synergy from the Capital Step deal.

Companies: Duke Royalty

17 May 19

LIBERUM: Staffline* - Unscheduled statement: estimates reduced

We are reducing 2019 and 2020 FD EPS by 46% and 17%. We increase FY net debt from £52m to £85m (net debt /EBITDA of 3.0x) for FY 2019.

Companies: Staffline Group

03 May 19

Burford Capital - Time to Top Up

We believe recent share price weakness presents an opportunity to enter the market leading litigation funder at an attractive valuation. Current market concerns surrounding an overstated ROIC and aggressive fair value accounting are unfounded, in our view. We reiterate our Buy rating and 2,300p price target.

Companies: Burford Capital

13 May 19

FY18 ahead of expectations

CentralNic has delivered a solid set of FY18 results this morning that are 3.8% ahead of our forecasts and up 66% YoY at the adj. EBITDA level (excluding the one off domain name sales business discontinued in 2017). This has been a transformative year for the group following a number of acquisitions including KeyDrive which effectively doubled the size of the group and significantly improved earnings quality. Recurring revenues are now at 90% and cash conversion in 2018A approaching 100%, highlighting this quality. We leave trading assumptions unchanged for 2019E and 2020E but update our working capital assumptions to reflect the cash outperformance and negative working capital cycle in the business. We now expect net debt at the end of 2019E of £2.9m growing to £3.0m in 2020E. At the current share price, the group trades on a 2019E EV/EBITDA of 5.9x and a P/E of 11.7x with a FCF yield of 7.6% based on 2019E forecasts.

Companies: Centralnic Group

15 May 19

Strong H1 performance, underlying upgrade

Sanderson has delivered interim results in line with the 15 April update, with group revenue increasing 18% and adjusted operating profit up 34%. While there is still a note of caution in the outlook, good revenue visibility and healthy sales prospects underpin management’s confidence in further progress in H2. We have revisited our forecasts to reflect further improvement in underlying performance, the acquisition of Gould Hall and potential IFRS 15 impact. This results in unchanged earnings expectations in FY19 and 2% enhancement in FY20/FY21. A FY 2019 EV/EBITDA of 10.2x and P/E of 14.2x suggests further upside given positive underlying momentum.

Companies: Sanderson Group

15 May 19

Strategic acquisition expands software strategy

Elektron Technology has announced the acquisition of Next Control Systems Ltd (“Next”), a leader in high-end service based temperature monitoring in healthcare and life-sciences with customers including the NHS. The net £8.8m (gross: £10.5m) cash acquisition adds significant scale to the technology segment, and is strategically important for Checkit, diversifying the customer base, offering access to new verticals, and extending Checkit’s service range with complementary IP. The transaction was undertaken at a net multiple of 6.6x EV/EBITDA, and adds over £10m of revenues, 57% of which are annual repeating (Next FY’18 sales: £10.7m; Checkit: £0.5m). The deal is earnings accretive from the acquisition date, with Next having generated £1.2m of operating profit during FY’18 (December YE). The acquisition announcement has been issued alongside a Q1 trading update highlighting strong 17% y/y revenue growth for the group. Whilst management expect sales growth to moderate in Q2, H1 sales are still expected to be “significantly ahead of last year’s comparable”. As a function of the acquisition, we raise our FY’20 group revenue forecast by 18% to incorporate 8.5 months of Next, with adjusted operating profit rising 13% (ex. restructuring costs).

Companies: Elektron Technology

17 May 19

Interim results – another beat

H1 Revenue is ahead of our not long ago increased expectation driving a better profit result. Cash is also £10m ahead. The business has good momentum and despite the ever present spectre of Brexit there is still significant scope for us to prudently raise revenue, EBITDA and EPS estimates. Acquisitions integrations and performances are on plan and the online advertising technology changes in place to benefit. The shares have re-rated again in line with the changing fundamentals. We see a path to 20x EBITDA leaving significant upside potential without the need for further upgrades.

Companies: Future

14 May 19

Well positioned for growth

Beeks Financial Cloud Group (“Beeks”) provides scalable, cloudbased ultra-low latency connectivity and infrastructure services for the automated trading of all key financial asset classes. Founded in 2010, in our view the business has a strong track record of growth and profitability and enjoys a solid financial position with high levels of recurring revenue and positive monthly cash generation. This has all been delivered while investing in the platform - the benefits of which have been demonstrated in the impressive revenue growth reported over recent periods. The experienced management team has positioned the Group well to benefit from the growth in its chosen markets.

Companies: Beeks Financial Cloud

15 May 19

Taking Checkit to the ‘Next’ level

Disruption may be the most over-hyped word in the Tech lexicon, yet it is reshaping almost every walk of life. Even routine tasks - from cleaning restaurants, hospitals, food factories and public toilets, to maintaining schools, shops and leisure facilities - have been transformed by the ‘digital revolution’.

Companies: Elektron Technology

14 May 19

Is the dividend cut a buy signal?

Vodafone has released its annual results. Although there was not much new on the operational side, the dividend was cut to €0.09, as was unfortunately expected (but it was probably the right thing to do). This corresponds to 6% of yesterday’s stock price (vs 10% previously). The major telcos, offering a 4.5-5.5% yield, lend it some upside if the market has confidence, like us, in the sustainability of the dividend. We maitain our Buy on the stock.

Companies: Vodafone Group

11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

13 May 19

Cenkos: Angling Direct Plc - Exceptional Growth

FY19A has been a transformational year for Angling Direct as they continue to grow their business both in the UK and abroad. This set of strong numbers solidifies their position as the retailer of choice for anglers. We believe the Group has a sustainable competitive advantage through the loyalty of its niche customer base and is now able to improve margins through cost led initiatives and its increased pricing power. Buy

Companies: Angling Direct

14 May 19

Understanding the deepest discounts

At Hardman and Co, we try to answer the questions of why to invest in a company and what the risks are in doing so. For many investors, simply having a deep discount to NAV is a good enough answer to the first question. However, investors need to appreciate the risks and, in particular, the reasons why the shares are at a discount. Having understood those risks, investors need to be convinced that there is a catalyst for change on the part of the manager and how long (if at all) it will take for market sentiment to reflect this in a lower discount. In this report, we examine the companies with the largest discounts and review those very issues.

Companies: ADAM BC12 BGHL CGI HAN JZCP LMS MPO MVI MHN NSI NAS OCI PSHD RSE SIHL TFG TPOU UTL VIN ELTA ELX

15 May 19

LIBERUM: Crest Nicholson* - Resilient trading

Crest Nicholson has announced that trading has been resilient in the six months to April 2019, with a reservation rate of 0.78 units per site per week, which is the same as achieved a year ago. The statement also shows that management has delivered on the strategy of turning land assets more quickly, which is demonstrated by a £41m reduction in net debt compared to last year as well as an acceleration in revenues from land sales, JV and commercial activity.

Companies: Crest Nicholson

17 May 19

Upgrades to forecasts, release of FY22E numbers

Following FY19A results last week, we upgrade FY20E and FY21E forecasts to reflect an increase in business momentum. We increase FY20E revenues by 3.0% to £48.6m, and adjusted PBT 6.7% to £5.6m. For FY21E we nudge up revenues by 1.3% albeit keep earnings broadly flat. Our newly released FY22E forecasts expect £62.3m of revenues and £7.2m Adj. PBT. We increase our PT to 520p from 460p (set by DCF) on updated forecasts, yet remain Neutral.

Companies: Keystone Law

20 May 19

Cenkos: Collagen Solutions Plc - Strategic investor vote of confidence

Collagen Solutions has announced it has received a strategic investment of £4.2m from the private US company, Rosen's Diversified Inc (RDI). The company will increase the raise to ~£6.0m through a proposed equity placing and open offer. The associated shares will be issued at a price of 5.0p. We believe this investment supports the growth we see developing in the company and significantly de-risks the near-term cash position. Following the recent positive trading statement, we have upgraded our FY19E forecasts and introduce new numbers out to FY21E. The momentum we see in the company supports our forecasts and Buy recommendation.

Companies: Collagen Solutions

20 May 19

Decent Q2 results

Siemens remains confident of its overall industrial businesses and, notably, its short-cycle businesses. We believe that the focus was not really on these results which came in broadly in line with expectations, though somewhat above on the bottom line, and a 2019 outlook that was confirmed, but more on what was announced during the CMD. Please look at our CMD feedback comments for further details.

Companies: Siemens

20 May 19

Clear strategy and good ambitions

Siemens announced on 7 May ahead of its CMD that it will spin off its Power Gas division, including the transfer of its 59% SGRE stake into the NewCo, which is expected to be listed in September 2020. The announcement makes sense, and we consider it should reduce the conglomerate discount as Siemens will focus on Industrial Core business (Digital Industries and Smart Infrastructure). All in all, the strategy is clear and the targets are ambitious. Siemens is on the right track.

Companies: Siemens

20 May 19

Morning Note – 20 May 2019

Companies: Allergy Therapeutics

20 May 19

LIBERUM: City Pub Group* - Momentum continues, Aragon House opens next week

City Pub sales growth momentum continues with sales up 35% YTD (19 weeks to 12 May 2019). The Hoste, Burnham Market, (acquired in April for c.£9m) is up and running, and the long-awaited development of Aragon House, Parsons Green, is due to fully open to the public next week.

Companies: City Pub Group

20 May 19

2G Energy - Enabling the energy revolution

2G Energy continues to diversify its activities by expanding export markets and developing service revenues so that it is less exposed to changes in the regulatory environment for renewables and CHP in Germany. This strategy delivered a 10.8% y-o-y increase in FY18 sales to a record €209.8m, and a 56.2% jump in EBIT to €11.5m.

Companies: 2G Energy

20 May 19

More armour required to conquer the price erosion

Hikma maintains FY 19 guidance in the Q1 trading update. Not much is disclosed in the trading update, but guidance implies 0-4% growth for FY 19.

Companies: Hikma Pharmaceuticals

20 May 19

Sustainable development

We believe leading engineering and construction group nmcn will benefit from sustainable earnings growth, supported by environmental investment and a trend among customers seeking more stable, long-term partners after Carillion’s failure. The cash-positive group’s strategy prioritises margins, cash generation and risk management to prevent recurrence of loss-making legacy contracts. Based on what we believe to be conservative estimates, the shares are trading on a FY 2019E P/E of 10.3x and yield of 3.5%.

Companies: NMCN Plc

20 May 19

Earnings accretive acquisition

CentralNic has announced this morning the acquisition of TPP Wholesale, the leading Australian and New Zealand domain name and hosting reseller business for a consideration of $24m AUD, subject to financing. This acquisition is a good example of CNIC’s strategy to acquire high recurring revenue businesses, with potential synergies that exist in new markets. We leave forecasts unchanged for now, preferring to wait until the financing condition is satisfied, but management have stated that they believe this transaction will be immediately earnings accretive for 2019E with double digit earnings accretion in 2020E. This is the group’s third acquisition in 12 months as they continue to execute their consolidation strategy.

Companies: Centralnic Group

20 May 19

Re-energising

We have met returned CEO (founder) John Roberts. Our overall view is that he is motivated to re-energise the business over so long as it takes and to protect the value of his investment. He is clearly a top sales person so some context will be needed at the Prelims and probably more meaningfully the 2019/20 Interims in November. But overall we came away positive.

Companies: AO World

20 May 19

California progressing

Reabold has provided a short update on California this morning, where operations are progressing well, with a production update expected in the next few weeks. Given good cash flow generation potential in California, with all four wells soon to be on permanent production, and the upcoming high impact West Newton well, we remain BUY.

Companies: Reabold Resources

20 May 19

Heading into the inside straight

Actual Experience has reported interim results that highlight a number of major strategic milestones, reflected in strong growth in Channel Partner revenues, deepening partner engagement and confirmation that the deployment model adopted from the outset has the potential to deliver the revenue scaling it promised. We have revisited previous scenario analyses to support this. While it has taken longer than anticipated to develop out Channel Partner relationships, a recent acceleration in momentum provides the strongest suggestion to date of an inflection point in terms of the generation of recurring revenue at scale.

Companies: Actual Experience

20 May 19

First Light

AfriTin today announces the first five assays results from its validation drill program at Uis. There is a considerable historical (non-compliant) resource established at Uis and today’s results provide the first stage of information to support that resource. The drilling program is principally aimed at the “V1” and “V2” pegmatites which will form the bulk of the resource mined in the early years of the new mine; close to surface, pre-stripped, central, close to site of new plant and well sampled (and economically mined historically).

Companies: Afritin Mining

20 May 19

(Almost) Daily Market News Update

The University of Michigan surveyed consumers about their assessment of the economy and their outlook for the future between 24 April and 15 May, so the new tariffs on Chinese goods introduced on 5 May should have had a material influence on the survey. But instead of declining, the overall index jumped to a 15-year high of 102.4 points! And as if that wasn’t enough, the assessment of the current situation remained virtually unchanged while the expectations component was single-handedly responsible for the jump. One may say that given the low unemployment rate and the solid wage growth, consumers should be upbeat, but expectations that are as optimistic as during the hayday of the real estate boom before the financial crisis seems ridiculous.

Macros: Commodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign Exchange

20 May 19

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

Echo Energy (ECHO LN) (not covered): Portfolio restructuring & new CEO | Volga Gas (VGAS LN) (not covered): Operational update in Russia | Orca Exploration (ORC.A/B CN) (not covered): 1Q19 results

Companies: ECHO VGAS ORC.B