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18 Feb 20

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Dislocation from record prices

Sylvania Platinum is trading at extremely cheap levels, just 0.9x adjusted EV/EBITDA on spot. The market clearly feels nervous about the rapid rise in the underlying commodities, palladium and rhodium.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum

19 Feb 20

Kape Technologies

Reiterating the Buy case

Companies: Kape Technologies

19 Feb 20

LIBERUM: CEO Video: Jaco Prinsloo, Sylvania Platinum*

In these five short videos incoming Sylvania Platinum CEO, Jaco Prinsloo discusses his recent appointment as CEO, the challenges for everyone regarding the power situation in South Africa, dump material life spans and spot prices, the current palladium and rhodium markets and his preferred use of surplus cash. Click below to watch the videos.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum

18 Feb 20

The Industrial Revelation

BHP could revise down estimates if "viral outbreak is not well contained" in Q1 20, HeidelbergCement sees positive demand in 2020, Kone withdraws from Thyssenkrupp bid

Companies: Rotork Somero Enterprises

20 Feb 20

The Industrial Revelation

US housing starts & building permits beat estimates, Spectris sees challenging H1, GE reportedly in talks with Airbus on new A330 engine as 737 Max hurts cashflow

Companies: CGS HAYD HEAD HILS JHD RNO SCPA TWD TRI ZTF SOM GHH

17 Feb 20

WHI Morning Comment: Spectra Systems (SPSY)

Good entry point for great business Only marginally above levels last seen a year ago, we view shares in SPSY at the current price as representing an excellent entry point after coming off on profit taking. This was not, after all, an ordinary year for SPSY but an excellent one, characterised by upgrades, contract wins and most importantly, a significant collection of major opportunities which the company is working through and any of which has the ability to be a game changer for the business. To name a few among many: (1) potential further new work for a G7 central bank (existing client), (2) potential wins from a major Asian central bank, (3) major prospective polymer substrate contract, (4) tobacco smartphone authentication opportunities (TruBrand). As a provider of advanced technology solutions for banknote, product authentication, and secure lottery transactions, SPSY is a highly specialised producer of proprietary equipment, solutions and services, with high entry barriers to match. It is well-invested, hence the enhanced DPS in recent years; and the balance sheet is strong, with $11.1m of net cash (excluding $1.1m of restricted cash) reported with the most recent (H1) results, underpinning future growth expenditure. Importantly, our forecasts only encompass firm business prospects / established contracts. With TruBrand conducting tests in China (see above), this may have affected sentiment, but if so this is misconceived, since (a) this potential future revenue stream is immaterial or non-existent in our forecasts and (b) SPSY is not a one-trick pony – the pipeline is strong with other and major opportunities.

Companies: Spectra Systems

17 Feb 20

CloudCall

New CRM partnership with Vincere

Companies: Cloudcall Group

20 Feb 20

Lowered costs and impairments guidance at the rescue

The group released a mixed set of quarterly results, characterised by a fall in the tangible book value and a reduced capital usage. Management’s guidance for this is reassuring: the group is expected to meet expectations thanks to stronger cost control and lower cost of risk.

Companies: Lloyds Banking Group

21 Feb 20

Cenkos Securities - Costs adjusted to protect profitability

2019 was a difficult year for UK equity capital markets activity, and Cenkos demonstrated the strength of its flexible business model and the client relationships sustained by its staff, achieving full year profitability despite one-off restructuring costs. Lower fixed costs will benefit future earnings and Cenkos reports a positive start to 2020 with a strong pipeline. Conservatively, we have reduced our revenue/earnings assumptions for this year, but improved market/investor confidence could generate significant upside.

Companies: Cenkos Securities

17 Feb 20

The Industrial Revelation

Japanese Q4 19 GDP sees largest fall since 2014 following recent tax hikes, US industrial production fell due to warm weather and Boeing 737 Max issues

Companies: HTG OXIG RSW RNO SCPA ZTF SOM GHH

21 Feb 20

The Industrial Revelation

UK CBI manufacturing orders beat estimates for Feb; Taiwan revises down export growth in Feb due to coronavirus; Japan manufacturing PMI falls

Companies: HEAD HILS JHD OXIG RSW RNO SCPA ZTF SOM GHH

18 Feb 20

Crimson Tide*

Commercial momentum continues with Rail win

Companies: Crimson Tide

17 Feb 20

Cenkos: Oil & Gas - Providence Resources, BP, Empyrean Energy, Coro Energy, 88 Energy, Premier Oil, Kosmos Energy, Tullow Oil, Karoon Energy, Tethys Oil, FAR, SDX Energy, Serinus Energy.

Oil clinched the best weekly gain for the year on signs the worst economic impacts of the lethal viral outbreak have been accounted for, easing concern about free-falling demand for crude. Futures advanced 1.2% in New York on Friday, settling above $52 for the first time this month. Investor confidence was lifted after China reassured the international community that a huge spike in new coronavirus cases was a one-off event. The optimism outweighed Goldman Sachs Group Inc. slashing its 2020 crude-demand growth forecast almost in half and lowering its first-quarter oil-price estimate by 16%. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have signalled a desire to stabilize the oil market that has tumbled almost 15% this year as the coronavirus wreaked havoc on the world's second-largest economy and beyond. The past two weeks have been rife with uncertainty for oil markets as Riyadh's push for an early meeting in February and fresh production cuts face an impasse with Russia. OPEC and its allies were close to abandoning any plans for an emergency meeting though Saudi Arabia had not given up on the proposal outright, several delegates from the group said on Friday. The outbreak has intensified concerns about crude demand, prompting technical experts from the coalition to propose deepening the current supply cuts by 600,000 barrels a day to relieve excess inventories. Chinese independent refiners have seized on the recent slump in oil prices to bulk up on cheap cargoes in a sign that they may be positioning for an eventual rebound in demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery gained 63 cents to settle at $52.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent for April settlement rose 1.7% to settle at $57.32 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The structure of the Brent futures market also flipped into a backwardation, signalling that some of the oversupply may have eased. Meanwhile, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia will resume oil production from their shared fields this month, more than five years after a dispute halted supply. The projects will bring additional production capacity to an oil market that's already dealing with excess supply.

Companies: TPL KOS SENX PVR BP/ CORO EME PMO SDX TLW 88E

18 Feb 20

Cenkos: Angling Direct Plc -- FY20E Trading Update

Revenue growth at Angling Direct was broadly in line with our forecasts for FY20E, but Adj EBITDA is expected to be below our expectations (£0.6m vs £1.6m previously forecasted), due primarily to a negative mix effect. We lower our FY20E and FY21E forecasts to account for the reduction in expected margins.

Companies: Angling Direct

12 Feb 20

LIBERUM: Plus500* - Q4 stronger than thought

Q4 saw $100m of revenues ex customer P+L. The company will return 100% of 2019 profits to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, has $293m net cash, and may seek targeted acquisitions, new licences and product extensions.

Companies: Plus500

21 Feb 20

In line results but lack of catalysts

Accor released no surprises in the FY19 results. The numbers look very good but maybe the group should make an effort to boost its like-for-like growth on top of benefiting from the various acquisitions.

Companies: Accor

21 Feb 20

Piggybacking on Networks

EDP released FY19 results. EBITDA increased by 12%, to €3.7bn, beating the consensus and our expectations. This increase was mainly driven by the networks activities (the division’s EBITDA was up by 18%), mainly pushed by assets in Brazil. EBITDA of the generation division was up slightly by 8%, thanks to the good wind conditions and a slight catch-up of hydro generation in Q4. The dividend is in line with expectations.

Companies: EDP - Energias de Portugal

21 Feb 20

Very good set of figures, further growth potential

Sopra Steria met expectations in 2019 in terms of organic revenue growth (+6.5%) and operating margin on business activity (+0.5pt to 8% of revenue). Free cash flow (€229m) largely exceeded guidance (>€150m), also when restated from the non-recurring items of €50m. The growth potential is positive in the medium term with organic revenue growth of +4-6% and an operating margin on business activity of 10% of revenue.

Companies: Sopra Steria Group

21 Feb 20

Bitesize briefing - Renergen

21 Feb 20

Chaarat Gold's Dusty Nicol talks increase to reserves at Tulkubash

21 Feb 20

Q4 (growth) hits a wall; 2019-nCoV overshadows the near term

AstraZeneca’s Q4 results were disappointing, both from a sales growth and profitability perspective. While Oncology and CVRM (to some extent) remain the key growth drivers, growing competition is concerning. Moreover, with the 2019-nCoV scare, near-term business visibility has hit a low. However, the group still has one of the largest oncology pipelines in our coverage and is awaiting/applying for/in major new indications/geographies in Oncology and even CVRM, which should give a push to sales growth.

Companies: AstraZeneca

21 Feb 20

SymBio Pharmaceuticals - Supply issues continue

SymBio reported sales of $25.8m (¥2.838bn) for 2019 and an operating loss of $39.1 (¥4.301bn). Sales were down from 2018 due to the previously announced quality control issue for the supply of Treakisym from Astellas. We forecast sales of $31.2m (¥3.433bn) in 2020 as the company winds down its sales to Eisai in anticipation of the launch of its own internal salesforce and marketing effort for the drug in 2021.

21 Feb 20

Power Metal's Paul Johnson explains why he's committed for the long-term

21 Feb 20

Good finish to FY 19; on-track for outperformance in 2020?

Smith & Nephew reported good Q4/FY 19 numbers – trumping estimates. Q4/FY 19 sales were up 5.6%/4.4% on an underlying basis – driven by broad-based momentum. For FY19, the trading profit margin came in at 22.8%. The company also announced a final dividend of $0.231 per share (+4%). Management expects FY 20 revenue growth of 3.5-4.5% with a trading margin at or slightly above the FY 19 level (22.8%). Following the good performance, we will be raising our estimates and target price.

Companies: Smith & Nephew Plc

21 Feb 20

Brunner Investment Trust reports 13.2% rise in 2019 NAV and again ups its dividend

21 Feb 20

Good 2019 figures and new share buy-back

• Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6% to €7.9bn • RoE was 13.6% in 2019 despite a 21% increase in shareholders’ funds to €74bn • Net new money inflow was €76bn for 2019 • DPS increase by 7% and a new share buy-back programme of €1.5bn

Companies: Allianz

21 Feb 20

A tough FY20e reiterated

Pearson confirmed its recent FY19 estimates, reporting in line figures (flat underlying revenue growth, adjusted OP: £581m, adjusted EPS: 57.8p). Final dividend raised from 13p to 13.5p. Reiterated FY20e guidance for adjusted OP (excluding Penguin; at 31/12/19 FX) of £410-490m with continuing poor trends in Higher Education hurting the whole business. No major changes expected to our forecasts. No share price driver without any sign of stabilisation/recovery in Higher Education and uncertainty remaining high until the new CEO is named.

Companies: Pearson

21 Feb 20

VolitionRx CEO highlights 'very strong assay and platform development progress'

21 Feb 20

Sound FY19 numbers; the usual positive AND conservative outlook

FY19 slightly better than our numbers The outlook for FY20 is conservative as usual, albeit positive No clear impact of the 2019-nCoV so far We do not see the “modest” free cash flow as a real issue We will fine-tune our numbers to the upside

Companies: Teleperformance

21 Feb 20

Is the British's sell-off in sight ?

Hammerson has disposed of new assets in the UK at a price 22% below their June 2019 book value, or a yield of 8.7% from the buyer’s side. The crisis is not over.

Companies: Hammerson