Stockdale Securities Equity Research & Stock Reports
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Positive 2017sales momentum continues
19 Jan 17
EU Supply has announced some more contract wins, which together with currency movements, means it now expects to exceed our previous £3.9m revenue forecast for 2017. A 2016 trading update is expected by the end of the month so we make no changes to our 2016 forecasts. As we have highlighted previously EU Supply has a greater cost exposure to euro-related currencies than revenues so we maintain our forecast of a £0.1m adj.EBIT for 2017 and a £0.1m adj. LBT. We retain our 15p TP and Buy rating.
The Money Bin - Insurance weekly
19 Jan 17
In the week to 17 January the FTSE All Share fell -0.7% vs. -1.4% for the Insurance Index and 0% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Beazley (+1.8%); Novae was the worst performer (-2.0%). The key risks identified in the WEF’s 2017 Global Risks all have (re)insurance implications to a varying degree, depending on the exposure and level of penetration (hence the strategic partners are Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance). Catastrophes (natural/man-made) and cyber are among the most likely risks for 2017.
2016 ahead; 2017 outlook upbeat
18 Jan 17
FDM has delivered a characteristically strong 2016, as detailed in today’s trading update. The group will deliver results “ahead of expectations”, and although Mountie numbers are some 1% shy of our forecasts, the group is clearly experiencing very strong growth in a number of key geographies, and the pricing environment remains solid. We make modest (c3%) upgrades to 2016E and 2017E Adjusted PBT estimates to reflect the positive update, and reiterate both our Buy recommendation and our 670p Target Price.
Improving the quality
18 Jan 17
Further analysis of our review of the 2016 IPOs confirms that the exceptional performance of AIM IPOs last year (up 42% on average) was due more to an improved performance from the laggards, rather than a much stronger performance from the leaders. As we said in our 4 January note, a ‘difficult’ market makes for a more discerning market both in terms of sorting the wheat from the chaff and valuing both appropriately.
Dodging the bullets
17 Jan 17
FY2016 will be mixed with higher than first forecast PBT at Beazley, Hiscox and Helios but lower PBT at JLT, Lancashire and Novae. Lancashire’s Q3 special dividend (its key driver for now) beat consensus. Losses picked up but didn’t deliver the knockout blow needed. FX boosted returns, especially for the sterling reporters. 2017 will be more challenging and we remain cautious on a 12M view given the likely pressures from soft pricing, rising claims activity, unrealised bond losses etc. However, it does feel as if we are getting close to the bottom. Quality over quantity is key. Add JLT, Novae; Buy Helios.
Robust 2016 trading update
16 Jan 17
SQS’s 2016 trading statement published this morning shows the business performed robustly during the period, with profitability in line with management expectations. Although revenue was slightly shy of our forecasts, there are a number of positives: (i) recent new contract wins look set to add around €20m annually to SQS’s revenues over coming years; (ii) net debt at the YE was sharply lower versus the interim period end and (iii) management are confident about 2017 outlook given a strong 2016 and recent wins.
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