10 Aug 17
A watershed moment for CAR-T
In the short term we retain our sector neutral recommendation, as drug pricing, uncertainty over healthcare reform in the US, and Brexit in Europe create a more challenging backdrop. However, the long term trends in healthcare – an aging population, rising spending on healthcare globally both in developed and emerging markets and innovation changing healthcare practice – in addition to the rapid pace of technology development, make it an attractive time for stock picking.
Companies: ABC AMS AGY ANCR BTG C4XD CTH CSRT DPH DNL EKF FARN HCM HZD IMM MXCT MTPH PLI SCLP SPHR VLG VER
12 Jul 17
AIM – End of summer term report
We update this table which we first published in early January and highlight the continued progress of the biggest AIM companies so far this year and activity in general. The latest AIM Statistics show that there are 963 companies currently, with 28 new issues year to date raising £441m. What’s more, this momentum has been maintained since June. This demonstrates that despite, the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy, generally investors continue to be active in the AIM market. In Share News & Views we comment on Cohort, ECSC*, Porvair, Quarto*, SQS* and Xafinity.
Companies: BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM PCF PPIX QRT SNX SPRP SQS TCN W7L
15 Aug 17
A third set of reassuring quarterly figures
Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) has produced another set of robust quarterly earnings, with Q217 revenues increasing 17% to £75.2m and a 39.9% EBITDA margin. The core Jackpotjoy division grew 18% and is gaining market share. Q3 has started well, management has reiterated its expectations for FY17 and our forecasts remain unchanged. The stock trades at a significant discount to peers, with 2018e multiples of 7.2x EV/EBITDA, 6.1x P/E and 15.0% free cash flow yield. The balance sheet is simplifying following a major earn-out payment and, as the company continues to demonstrate its market dominance, we would expect a re-rating in the shares.
09 Aug 17
Cadmium to be prohibited from October 2019
Proposed amendments (subject to ratification) to the Restriction of Hazardous Substances Directive (RoHS) by the European Commission recommend a two-year more restrictive extension to the exemption of cadmium in quantum dot displays, subsequent to which the use of any cadmium in electronic devices sold within the EU will be banned. The use of cadmium in lighting products will be prohibited with immediate effect. The judgement has little impact on our investment thesis, as we believe that commercial factors for cadmium-free adoption are already strong.
Companies: Nanoco Group
07 Aug 17
New records galore
The past fortnight has seen a number of records broken in the technology sector, both in the UK and abroad. FDM* share price set a record, going past the £10 mark, after beating market expectations. Sage made its biggest ever acquisition. Samsung set a record for net profit in a quarter, making it the world’s most profitable company. Apple’s cash pile grew to a record US$262bn. Google’s record US$2.7bn fine meant it had a rare decline in profitability. GetBusy* had a strong debut on AIM, increasing 22% on its first day, adding to the track record of recent tech company listings in London.
Companies: BBSN ECSC EUSP FDM PPIX QRT SPRP SQS SNX
09 Aug 17
Summertime, and the livin’ is easy?
In the middle of the holiday season, when in theory the livin’ is easy, far from taking a breather, markets have continued to rise. All major indices are close to all-time highs. Although the Brexit picture is no clearer, share prices continue to make headway. Both M&A and new issue activity remains to the fore. In contrast, the latest snapshot of the economy shows increasing signs of a slowdown. The reporting season continues apace which will set the near term direction. In Share News & Views, we comment on recent results/news from AdEPT, Clipper Logistics, FDM*, GetBusy*, Quarto* Sprue* and Staffline.
Companies: BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM PCF PPIX SNX SPRP SQS TCN W7L
08 Aug 17
N+1 Singer - T. Clarke - Good organic progress alongside Eton upgrades
T Clarke’s interims confirm good organic progress, which will be bolstered by the acquisition of Eton Associates, announced yesterday. Revenue increased by 17% and PBT by 8%, driven by a particularly impressive performance from the dominant London & South East division. Profit growth would have been greater still were it not for a loss making half from Central & South West (a profitable H2 is expected). Overall, the Group is well positioned for the full year and we upgrade 2018 EPS by 6.5%, principally to reflect the contribution from Eton. Further upgrades may yet follow and we believe the shares are undervalued on a P/E rating of 7x with a 4% yield.
Companies: T Clarke
19 Jun 17
Delivering against strategy
Good momentum is apparent in Severfield’s results, with healthy progress in revenue and margins in the UK and a profit contribution from the Indian JV. Our estimates now expect a sustained JV profit contribution (previously neutral) and, with unchanged UK expectations, Severfield is on track to double PBT between FY16 and FY20. All in all, we see a clear strategy that is being well executed against visible financial targets.
25 Apr 17
Panmure Morning Note 25-04-2017
We sense-check our 2017 sales forecast for Nortek after Lennox International reported its Q1 results yesterday. We are forecasting 8.5% revenue growth for Nortek, with Air Management, the largest division, growing at 5%. Lennox reported 11% sales growth for its Residential Heating & Cooling business while Commercial Heating & Cooling business rose 15%. Lennox’ Q1/17 revenues were exaggerated by six extra days, therefore, we estimate that underlying growth was more like 5% and 9%, respectively, for Residential and Commercial. At this stage, we are comfortable with our 5% growth forecast for Nortek’s Air Management business.
Companies: Melrose Industries
07 Aug 17
Strong progress in H1
H117 results for Primary Health Properties (PHP) show strong growth in underlying (EPRA) earnings, driven by higher rental income and lower financing costs. Amid strong competition for assets, PHP is continuing to source acquisitions that meet its criteria and reports a strong pipeline of opportunities. Long-term demographic trends and broad political will for healthcare reform continue to support the outlook for primary care property in both the UK and Ireland, and PHP’s long and largely government-backed leases underpin an attractive and fully covered dividend, which we expect to continue its 20-year growth trend.
Companies: Primary Health Properties
09 Aug 17
Faster growth aspirations
H117 results provided clear evidence of business momentum with a strategy to accelerate the influence of innovation on future growth rates. Following a series of announcements and the H1 cash flow presentation, the ongoing pension, and therefore group, funding positions are now fully visible. The combination of these points indicates an aspiration to achieve faster group progress, in our view.
Companies: Coats Group
27 Jun 17
We recently hosted our annual Industrial Technology dinner with 14 companies, many of which are active in the materials science arena; having focused previously on composite materials in the aerospace sector, in this edition of Machinations we focus on graphene, with its unique and potentially game-changing qualities and potential applications. Investments in this area remain fairly early stage, but could potentially reap huge rewards. Graphene is well represented in the UK small-cap market by several players.
Companies: SIXH ACL AXS AMPH ALU AEP AVG CAPD CAR FENR FLO RAD GHH HDD HAYT IOF MPE RE/ RED RNO RBN SOM SCE TRT TRI VANL ZAM
08 Aug 17
2017 Interims. Plus approach to the company
Interims reflect the poor trading highlighted in July. Continuing retail softness in the UK & US, changing market trends and an increasing H2 bias have contributed. Revenues fell 13% to $50.2m ($57.9m) and it reported an adjusted loss before tax of $8.7m (loss $1.6m). Net debt rose 5% to $75.8m. Quarto will not pay an interim dividend. The board has received an approach to acquire the company at a price it considers attractive. Discussions are at an early stage. Following this, we withdraw our forecasts, target price and recommendation.
Companies: Quarto Group
31 Jul 17
Further outperformance – a stellar H1
FDM has delivered a strong H1, with both revenue and adjusted profit ahead of the required run-rate to reach our full year expectations. The group continues to deliver on the plan – ongoing growth in the UK (where sentiment appears to have recovered well), strong expansion overseas and a number of new strategic initiatives across the business. Given the strength in H1, and the positive commentary from management, we upgrade our estimates for both 2017 and (more modestly) beyond; our target price rises from 850p to 900p.
Companies: FDM Group
08 Aug 17
UK E&P sector
In this note we revise our oil price deck, roll forward our NAV discount origins to end 2017, and update models for spot fx rates and operational updates. The net effect is to reduce PTs by 21% on average. However, our revised PTs still show considerable upside relative to the current share prices, and we believe the sector can still create value in a Lower for Longer oil price world. We retain Cairn Energy as our top pick. We also upgrade Faroe Petroleum to BUY, given an attractive valuation and defensive story.
Companies: CNE ENQ FPM TLW
19 May 17
Leading UK fund manager, Gervais Williams, discusses investing, his outlook and two companies he's excited about
20 Jul 17
Capital Network's Sam Catalano on NQ Minerals Plc
03 May 17
Executive Interview - Dialight
10 Jul 17
Executive interview - Findel
27 Jun 17
Photo-me International plc - 2017 Preliminary results interview
05 Jul 17
Advanced Oncotherapy - Harley Street update with Deconstruct UK
23 May 17
De la Rue - Full Year Results 2017
27 Jun 17
Executive interview - Seneca Global Income & Growth Trust
04 Apr 17
Nanoco - Interim Results
23 Jun 17
Capital Network's Sam Catalano on Thor Mining
05 Apr 17
Executive Interview - Nanoco Group
15 Jun 17
121 Group - 2017 Highlights New York
14 Jun 17
Norcros PLC - Executive interview with CEO Nick Kelsall
13 Jun 17
Trifast - Final results
13 Jul 17
Executive interview - Picton Property Income
N+1 Singer - Lookers - Strong results and well positioned to deliver on strategic growth
Interim results reveal a strong H1 performance, with market outperformance in all areas of the business (including mid single digit LFL unit growth in New and Used, on maintained GPPUs). Whilst the outlook commentary signals a slightly more cautious view in New, the market remains close to all time high levels and the significant brand enhancement strategy completed over 18 months means we continue to anticipate market outperformance in both sales and GPPU. With the impressive CMD event still fresh in mind from May, we remain upbeat about future prospects and believe the valuation is unduly low on 7x P/E and 3.4% yield. M&A remains on the cards should vendor price demands correct and just deploying half available resource should deliver accretion of c15%. The shares should rise today.
16 Aug 17
Robust H1, forecasts unchanged
Lookers has delivered a solid set of interim results this morning, with adj. PBT from continuing operations (ex parts) up 18% to £50.2m (H1 2016: £42.6m). There was a good performance across all new, used and aftersales demonstrating a robust margin performance across all segments of the business. The trading outlook remains uncertain as we are currently seeing across the sector, and clearly September remains key for the full year performance. We are maintaining our forecast assumptions for now, and believe the valuation remains undemanding given the company’s long term track record of generating value.
16 Aug 17
Termination of bid discussions
The discussions announced on 8 August, with an unnamed bidder have been terminated by mutual agreement. The approach was unsolicited. Discussions had not progressed to the satisfaction of the Board due to regulatory approvals extending the process longer than indicated. Mindful of the need to deliver a strong finish to the year, the Board was not prepared to prolong discussions during a key trading period. QRT confirmed its confidence of delivering a strong finish to the year. Our recommendation, estimates and TP are under review.
16 Aug 17
BMV BMN EMH HOC JAN
SP Angel – Morning View
Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) – Laboum gold prospect update | Bluebird Merchant Ventures* (BMV LN, Standard List) – Bluebird team find three entrances for Gubong gold mine | Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – BUY – Target Price raised to 14p (formerly 11.6p) – Vametco profits exceed expectations as management target ambitious expansion | European Metals (EMH LN) – Infill drilling at Cinovec | Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) – On track for record 37m oz attributable silver production in 2017 | Jangada Mines (JAN LN) – Revised Pedra Branca resource estimate including copper and nickel.
16 Aug 17
Panmure Morning Note 15-08-2017
STVG has confirmed Simon Pitts (currently head of ITV’s OPI division) will take over as CEO, with effect from January 2018. We view this as a loss for ITV and a gain for STVG. Pitts brings a deep understanding of the ITV network, plus handson experience in managing the key strategic issue facing STVG – the transition from broadcast to streaming. We believe STVG has picked up a very strong recruit here, helped by fallout from the recent ITV and C4 succession processes, and reiterate our positive view on the broader equity story at STVG.
15 Aug 17