Staple Retail equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content for companies within the Staple Retail sector. Stocks in this sector provide goods and services in the food wholesale and drug retail industries.

Staple Retail equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content for companies within the Staple Retail sector. Stocks in this sector provide goods and services in the food wholesale and drug retail industries.

Latest Content

Greggs

Greggs - Greggs passes the scorch test

Greggs’ sales growth has accelerated through each quarter, in defiance of the summer 2018 heatwave conditions that turned many retailers’ performances on their heads. Greggs has passed the scorch test, thanks to the change strategy that the brand has quietly achieved: a change in its locations, its value menus, its customers and its trading dayparts. This result is significant and should help challenge out-of-date assumptions about Greggs. We retain our 1,360p valuation.

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  • 09 Oct 18
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METRO

Yet another profit warning; investors take flight

Nothing seems to be going right for Ceconomy at present. Today’s profit warning has cast serious questions on the strength of Ceconomy’s business model, especially regarding its ability to generate positive growth and margins in the home country Germany. A solid performance during the peak trading season ‘Black Friday to Christmas’ is the next vital trigger in the near-term. Our earnings estimates and target price are reset significantly lower. The stock recommendation has also been downgraded by one notch.

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  • 09 Oct 18
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Tesco

H1 mired by weak International business

It was a tough quarter for Tesco. The retailer is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, on the back of the Polish and Thai operations. The South-East Asian country is still lucrative for Tesco (with potential for a performance turnaround in the mid/long-term). However, we would not be surprised if management decides to exit Poland in the coming quarters. We have revised down our earnings estimates, also downgrading the stock recommendation (from Buy to Add).

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  • 05 Oct 18
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J Sainsbury

Weak Q1 results

The Q1 performance was softer than our expectations. Management’s strategy to invest in prices is vital to blunt the increasing competition in the UK. Although the shop-in-shops of Argos are performing remarkably well, the recent recovery in general merchanting and clothing is fragile, in our opinion. Any positive news from CMA (about the proposed merger with Asda) or an improvement in grocery lfl would be key upside triggers, in our opinion. No change in the stock recommendation.

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  • 05 Oct 18
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METRO

Ceconomy continues to disappoint

The double-whammy of weak Q3 results plus a subsequent profit warning has battered the FY18 earnings estimates. The stock price is unlikely to regain strength unless management presents a credible plan for its core market Germany. The next crucial trigger is the performance in the peak trading season (especially Black Friday week). We have also applied a peer discount to factor in weaker growth prospects, poor investor sentiment and the delay in sorting the pressing issues. Our stock recommendation is reset downwards – from ‘Buy’ to ‘Add’.

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  • 05 Oct 18
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Tesco

Tesco taking the bull by the horns

As expected, Tesco has unveiled its discount store concept today. It will be called as ‘Jack’s’, named after the company’s founder Jack Cohen. The initial details are as follows: 1. This new store is touted to be cheapest in the town. 2. 10-15 new stores will be opened over the next six months. 3. 2,600 products will be sold (vs 20,000 in a typical Tesco store). Out of the total, 1,800 would be Jack’s-branded items. 4. As much as 80% of the products will be grown, reared or made in the UK. 5. Management plans to offer a cashier-less shopping experience (scan and pay using a mobile app) vs self-service machines or traditional check-outs. With this step, the UK’s largest retailer expects to take the fight back to discounters Aldi and Lidl, who jointly command a 13.1% market share today. Notably, the decade-long aggressive expansion by German discounters has long rattled the ‘Big 4’in the UK, which have lost considerable ground during the period. Although we agree that Dave Lewis needs to check the market share erosion (27.4% on 9 September 2018 vs 29.1% in January 2015) – the rampant onslaught from German discounters is the biggest pain-point – this strategy is a bold experiment by Tesco in our opinion. The UK’s largest retailer needs to ensure that this new format does not cannibalise the revenue of its existing stores. The margin of error is also higher as management needs to don multiple hats at the same time – traditional supermarkets vs discount format vs convenience stores vs e-com. The historical failures of other peers also highlights the high implementation risk with this format. Notably, Sainsbury partnered with Netto in 2014 but had to shut these discount stores after incurring losses for two years. In addition to reviving the performance of traditional stores, it is also interesting to see these large retailers treading on different paths as a competitive strategy. Despite an ambitious plan by the CEO, implementation remains the key to success.

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  • 19 Sep 18
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Casino Guichard Perrachon

Dare to think beyond three months?

This article is meant for investors with an inclination towards calculated but higher-risk investments, for a period beyond 3-6 months. Today, we present a ‘must-buy’ case for Groupe Casino Guichard, the most shorted stock in France (with 15.48% interest as on 8 September 2018) and one of the highly debated stocks in the European food retail arena. What’s going on? The stock has lost c.40% market value since the beginning of this year. But the bears are not shooting from the hip! Almost everybody knows that the bone of contention is still the health of the French business (100% owned by Casino) – its FCF might not be enough to service the debt of Casino and parent Rallye; the latter’s recurring cash flows depend largely on dividends received from Casino. In fact, a section of the market has placed huge bets towards Rallye’s inability to serve its near-term obligations – due in October 2018 and March 2019. No wonder its CDS spread has skyrocketed to the >2000bp mark vs less than 500 in August 2017. To complicate matters further, S&P has also downgraded Casino’s financial rating by one notch to BB, negative perspective. Over the past few months, we have been extensively analysing and writing about the above-mentioned concerns – please refer to our reports dated 18 June, 14 August and 6 September 2018. The crux of the matter is as follows: 1. The French FCF concerns are unfounded as the country’s operations are likely to remain healthy. This is due to: 1) increasing competition (especially from Leclerc) which is manageable, given the high reliance on premium brands, 2) Geant is still the second best priced banner in France, and 3) management has aggressive expansion plans in e-com plus the home delivery space (through the strategic tie-up with Ocado + Amazon). Even working capital management is now in the black. 2. As a result, the entity should be able to pay regular dividends to Rallye. 3. Management is capable of disposing of non-core assets worth c.€1.5bn by early 2019 – the proceeds would be used for French net debt reduction. Its track record (the Asian business sold for c. €4bn in 2016) is also reaffirming. 4. There are no covenants attached to Rallye’s bond documentation or commercial paper programme. Also, there is no covenant which obliges Rallye to pledge additional Casino shares if the latter’s stock price plunges. The two covenants are: 1) a consolidated EBITDA/ consolidated cost of net financial debt >2.75x (vs 4.04x achieved in 2017) and 2) a standalone equity of Rallye’s statutory accounts >€1.2bn (vs €1.7bn as of 31 December 2017; it is calculated only once a year). In addition, Rallye has pledged 6.7m Casino shares as of December 2017 (c.12% of Rallye’s participation in Casino) vs 15m kept a year ago. 5. Net net, Rallye should be able to meet near-term debt obligations. However, it needs to do more to regain investors’ confidence / improve the balance sheet’s health. Moreover, this is not the first time that CEO Jean-Charles Naouri has been pushed to the wall over the past few years. The stock’s price nose-dived to the twenties in early 2016, before bouncing back c.60% within just six months. Last week’s trough (stock price touched €26.7; a 22-year low level) has revived the important question – will history be repeated? Yes, it’s very likely! Why is Casino a ‘must-buy’? Although the stock price is also quite cheap on a relative basis, we base our ‘six-month plus’ investment recommendation on the fundamental techniques of SOTP/NAV (see the chart below). Our valuation estimates are as follows: 1. The French business is valued using the EV/Sales multiple over forecasted revenue. This applied multiple (of 0.27x) is derived at substantial discount when compared to the long-term average of European food retailers: 0.54x and close competitor Carrefour: 0.39x (note that Casino’s French business has been performing better in recent quarters). Casino’s historical average has been 0.64x at the group level (includes the LatAm operations). 2. The other four segments are listed on the stock exchange and, hence, are being valued at the market price (in accordance with AlphaValue’s benchmarks). Note that these spot prices are also depressed when compared on a yoy basis. A gradual improvement in the LatAm performance (led by cash & carry formats) and the easing of currency headwinds are likely to nudge investors’ sentiment for these listed entities. 3. Net debt is attributable to France only. Note that we have estimated it by adjusting the H1 FY18 value of €4,019m with: 1) the capital inflow from Segisor (the financially-engineered contribution from Casino’s LatAm holding company; mentioned above), and 2) the €800m proceeds after the sale of non-core assets (vs management’s estimate of €1bn in 2018 and €1.5bn by early 2019). Source: AlphaValue Putting it simply, Casino is an entity which has been punished much harder than it actually deserves. We note that the retailer has been able to clock 10% plus growth in trading profit in France (also at the group level) and, sequentially, reduce gross debt over recent years (see the table below). We see the H1 FY18 surge in net debt as an aberration and estimate that net debt will reduce further in 2019. A better contribution from the healthier LatAm economies would be the icing on the cake. All in all, the stock throws up substantial upside for any investor who is willing to be patient for a while. Source: Company Filings You just might get lucky Don’t be surprised if Casino draws the attention of cash-rich/growth-hungry retail giants in the coming quarters. The company’s ability to sustain earnings growth, addressable pain-points (debt plus competitive pressure) and attractive relatives make it an ideal investment opportunity. Given the current scenario, Jean-Charles Nouri might not be averse to the on-boarding of a new partner (Amazon?), if the control of the firm remains with him (which is quite possible through voting rights). While a partnership with French peers looks bleak at present – they are busy in either setting their own houses in order or lack the deep-pockets / strategic fit with Casino, – some international heavyweights might be interested in picking a strategic stake in the Monoprix owner. While scouting for Casino’s possible partners in France, we believe the global retail arena will rapidly evolve into a tri-polar contest (Amazon vs Alibaba vs the troika of JD.com + Wal-Mart + Tencent). These retail giants have aggressive plans to penetrate all major retail markets (developed + developing) across the globe. As a result, it’s highly likely that Casino will need to align with one of these poles/names. Amazon: The US giant already has a grocery delivery deal with Monoprix in France. A stake purchase in Casino will not only help Jeff Bezos to make instant / deeper inroads in the country, but also get access to the prime store locations (especially through premium banners Monoprix, Franprix, etc.) to beef-up the urban distribution network. “Prime Now” combining Amazon Prime with Monoprix’s fresh food opened on 12/09/2018 in Paris. JD.com: The Chinese e-com player plans to enter France in 2019. It might either decide to start alone (although less likely in our opinion) or seek an alliance with an established player. However, Carrefour might be its preferred choice as Tencent (which owns a c.18% stake in JD.com) is already backing Alexandre Bompard in China. Alibaba: It should only be a matter of time before Alibaba announces its entry into the lucrative French market, following the close competitors Amazon and JD. Although it makes sense for Jack Ma to join hands with Auchan (as both are JV partners in Chinese retail store giant Sun-Art), the latter’s reliance on hypers plus ongoing operational issues, and Casino’s attractive valuation might incline Alibaba towards Casino. Ahold Delhaize: The Dutch retailer might be more interested in strengthening the US operations at present, where competition has intensified after the 2017 entry of Lidl, aggressive turnaround plans of Aldi and Wal-Mart, and a mid/long-term threat from Amazon-Whole Foods. Moreover, the strengthening of Peapod and the overhaul of the Belgian operations are also likely to keep management busy for some time. French peers: While Leclerc has recently decided to take Casino head-on (entered home delivery services in the Paris region), Carrefour is also busy with its turnaround plan (plus a deal with JD makes more sense for it). Additionally, French regulators and politicians might also not be comfortable with such an alliance – anti-trust/competitive concerns might crop up, akin to the proposed Sainsbury-Asda merger in the UK. Auchan and Intermarche rely on out-of-favour hypermarkets and, hence, might not have much to offer to Jean-Charles Nouri. Last but not least, we would not be surprised if a sovereign fund – e.g. Temasek, Qatar Investment Authority (which owns a 22% stake in UK-based Sainsbury) – or a global fund (like Softbank) decides to hop on the bandwagon. Other points to ponder 1. Investors have been quite apprehensive about the transparency / financial disclosures made by Casino (e.g. the recent case of Casino Finance, the cash-pooling entity of the group). We do not share these concerns as French private company / subsidiary disclosure filings are very transparent compared to other countries (e.g. the UK). Hence, it’s not easy to hide prominent information – it is one of the key reasons why a Steinhoff- or Tesco-like scandal is highly unlikely. 2. The ongoing short interest is not expected to last forever. These positions tend to evaporate swiftly as soon as bears initiate the exit and rationality seeps in. So a price rebound might be sharp, akin to 2016. 3. We also believe that the French government might be uncomfortable to see banks takeover such a large retailer – the prospect of massive job losses normally sets alarm bells ringing for politicians. 4. French regulator AMF issued a press release two days after Casino plunged c.15%, following the tweet by Muddy Waters. The authority reminded about ‘the provisions applicable to bearish speculation’. As a reminder, the Casino board also believes that the Casino stock price is the object of speculative repeated attacks. 5. Gabriel Nouri, the son of group CEO and controlling shareholder Jean-Charles Nouri, left the group in 2017 after spending 10 years there. This step mitigates the possibility of a dynastic chain in future, an encouraging sign from the minority shareholders’ perspective. Then why is Casino just an ‘Add’ today? The company has recently confirmed the lfl growth momentum in July and August (ahead of the quarterly results) and the 2018 guidance. Despite its promising competitive position and FCF growth prospects, and attractive valuation (especially, DCF and NAV), Casino is likely to remain range-bound in 2018. We believe investors would be unwilling to dip a toe in the choppy waters unless management presents some tangible development regarding the net debt reduction / non-core asset disposal plan. The implied condition is that promises are fulfilled in a timely manner and that no more surprises are in the offing, e.g. heavy reliance on debt reduction tools like sale-and-leaseback transaction or financial engineering (a LatAm holding company controlled by Casino raised the loan and passed it over to the French business, aiding in net debt reduction of the French subsidiary).

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  • 12 Sep 18
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O'Key

O’KEY Group - Discounting Russia

O’KEY’s H118 results confirm a business model in the process of modifying its channel mix through an accelerated roll-out of new DA! discounters. While Russian markets remain challenged, scale investments increase the company’s purchasing power and operational efficiency, reinforcing strong cost management. EBITDA margins continue to be driven by an increase in DA! profitability, supporting market forecasts of strong PBT growth of c 35% over the next three years.

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  • 10 Sep 18
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Casino Guichard Perrachon

Debt pressure is surmounting

Casino’s share price collapsed c.10% on Friday evening after the US short seller Muddy Waters said on Twitter that one of Casino’s subsidiaries (the finance unit of the retailer) had not filed its 2017 accounts. This news raised fresh concerns about the company’s financial health, which has already been struggling with pressing issues such as high leverage, increasing competition in France and weakening LatAm currencies (although the operations remain healthy). The company’s spokesperson, however, said the delay was attributable to technical reasons and this subsidiary’s accounts were already integrated into Casino 2017 consolidated results. He also added that the concerned accounts will be filed on Saturday (31 August 2018) and shall be available on Infogreffe next week. New details released by management Casino (CGP) has also released some details (regarding its credit rating, French cash and working capital position) in a press release today. 1. S&P has downgraded Casino’s financial rating by one notch to BB, negative perspective. However, management remains confident about its ability to deleverage the French business on the back of the €1.5bn asset disposal plan (announced in June 2018) and good sales momentum in France (and LatAm) since the beginning of the year, and particularly in July and August. 2. The Casino board, which met on 31 August 2018, believes that the Casino stock price is subject to speculative repeated attacks. 3. The French entity (includes CGP, French businesses and wholly-owned holding companies) held cash & cash equivalents worth €2.1bn at 30 June 2018 and €1.9bn at 31 December 2017. And this cash is fully available to CGP, regardless of the subsidiaries holding the cash. 4. The subsidiary under question, Casino Finance, is a fully-owned subsidiary of CGP and a cash-pooling entity for the French businesses. The following table includes the cash of Casino Finance, the balance of cash held by of the French businesses (held 100%) that has not yet been centralised at the closing date, and the cash of international holding companies. Source: Casino filings 5. Cash deposits in foreign currencies are made through 100% financial entities owned by CGP, the cash of which is fully available and transferrable at any moment without tax leakage. 6. Working capital improvement in H1 18 was not aided by the transfer of some non-food categories (from Geant to Cdiscount) or the sale of non-recurring real estate assets. What lies ahead Note that the stock has already lost c.45% in value in 2018, despite clocking a healthy top line and profitability, and forging a series of strategic ties (with the likes of Amazon and Ocado) in France. Management announced an ambitious deleveraging plan (entails €1.5bn non-core asset sales) to re-impose investors’ faith in June 2018. However, there is a need to watch these developments closely – management recently resorted to financial engineering tools (e.g. a LAtam holding company controlled by Casino raised the loan and passed it over to the French business, resulting in a net debt reduction of the French subsidiary). Any repetition of similar measures or a reduction of debt through a heavy reliance on sale-and-leaseback transactions might not be perceived well by the jittery investors. All in all, although the valuation is very attractive today, the implied condition is that promises are fulfilled in a timely manner by management and that no hidden skeletons are found in the cupboard. We believe the stock price is likely to remain under pressure / range bound for the next 3-4 months (given the bearish investor sentiment) until the first green shoots of the asset disposal plan are visible on the ground.

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  • 03 Sep 18
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Tesco

Q1 results – a slight miss

Tesco reported Q1 FY18/19 results slightly below our estimates – UK & ROI performance came in line, but the international business was a bit weak. Initial progress on the Booker integration is quite satisfactory, aided further by the strategic decision to form a buying alliance with Carrefour and closing an unprofitable non-food website. We have incorporated the Q1 numbers and the impact of some new business events in our estimates. No change to the stock recommendation.

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  • 31 Aug 18
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