Rest of EMEA

Rest of EMEA equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content we have for listed companies based in the rest of EMEA.

EMEA Equity Research

Broker research, valuations, and analysis on European stocks

21 Aug 18

Off to the races as NFL season draws closer

The US sports betting market has the potential to be significantly large. However, lack of federal level legislation, sluggish state by state legislative processes, and other limiting factors will cause a likely drag on the sport betting market’s full potential. The American Gaming Association estimates at least $150bn is wagered annually with offshore books, which implies a $10bn - $12bn revenue market. We estimate, onshore online sports revenue in 4 - 5 years of $6bn (table 6, p14) should be achievable across 25 States where Daily Fantasy Sports is legal in 22 states, if we include California, implies a market as large as $7.5bn in revenue. UK listed operators not necessarily only winners as US operators, Stockholm listed and some private companies make early inroads. Sports betting live in New Jersey, Mississippi, Delaware and Nevada, with West Virginia and Pennsylvania expected to follow soon.

Companies: GVC WMH PPB PTEC SPO 888 GAN NKTN KAMBI GIG SGMS IGT

14 May 19

Q1 was impacted by mild winter, but full-year guidance is confirmed

EBITDA was down 4.8%, broadly in line with expectations, due to lower volumes after the warmer winter and a timing effect in the Client Solution segment. The negative items are expected to be offset during the year; thus guidance for the full year is confirmed.

Companies: Engie

15 May 19

Higher pricing propels profitability

K+S reported a good set of figures, confirming our view. We see the cautious delivery of figures in the adjusted reporting structure as uninstructive. Consensus was outdone here and there. Sales and profitability were fuelled by higher prices in Q1, whereas the dynamics of the operating unit Europe+ was held back by lower volumes.

Companies: K&S

16 May 19

Snow White needs a prince

Showing activity for the sake of showing activity? We hope this will not become the new CEO’s mantra. Despite Beiersdorf’s huge cash pile, management will quickly learn one can spend a euro just once. We believe the announced acquisition of Bayer’s odd brand Coppertone is not a bargain but rather a perfect fit for the established businesses. However, we have some doubts on the business volume that has been provided.

Companies: Beiersdorf

16 May 19

Mondo TV - Tracking on trading

Mondo TV’s Q119 figures are as flagged, tracking to its December 2018 business plan. Our revenue and earnings numbers are unchanged. YooHoo to the Rescue is now airing globally on Netflix, giving a strong start to management’s ambitions to broaden geographic revenue spread. The group has settled with three of the four Asian customers that withdrew in H218, but remains in dispute with one. It has also disclosed that it is subject to a further tax authority investigation, which it is confident will find in its favour. A further mark down in the share price, now off the lows, leaves the valuation at a deep discount to peers and the DCF.

Companies: Mondo Tv

05 Dec 17

“Requiring further in depth transformation… and time”

No clear picture on the group’s strategy before mid-February 2018, implying continuing high volatility in the share price in the short term.

Companies: Solocal Group

01 Mar 18

Strong year ending, sees better performance in FY18

Strong Q4 on the back of a rebound in Brazil as well as better performances in China and Colombia. The US remains soft, although improved vs. Q3. As positives, we note a better than expected margin progression. The improvment from quarter to quarter and positive FY18 outlook should be reassuring for shareholders.

Companies: AB INBEV

25 Jul 18

Solid growth and profits in Q2

LVMH outperforms again but with no real surprises. Sales were up organically 11% in Q2 and 12% in H1. Operating profit jumped by 29%.

Companies: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton

21 Nov 18

La Doria - A tough environment

The consumer environment remains tough for La Doria and the adverse weather conditions for the seasonal tomato campaign have led management to slightly edge down its FY18 profit outlook earlier this year. During 9M18, underlying sales were up 2%, which represents a slowdown from the +3.7% in H1. This was caused by a deceleration in growth in the “other lines” of the trading business during Q3, ie the non-core part. Management is forging ahead with its four-year investment plan and the Acerra plant has now closed. We trim our forecasts in line with the revised outlook and our fair value moves to €15.40 from €16.10.

Companies: La Doria

20 Feb 19

FY18 weak as expected. The transformation plan should start paying off.

- Q4 18 was weak, as a result of the reduction in workforce - management insists no further financing is required (on the condition that the transformation plan actually bears fruit) - the guidance for FY19 is modest and should be met - IFRS16 impact: c. +€15m in EBITDA, +€105-115m in debt - no big changes to expect in our numbers

Companies: Solocal Group

03 May 19

Revenue growth moderated in Q1, but profit margin increased strongly

After 16% in 2017 and 8% in 2018, currency adjusted revenue growth moderated to 4% in Q1 19. Sales of the Adidas brand were up by 5% but Reebok sales fell by 6%. Nevertheless, the profit margin improvement was stronger than expected.

Companies: adidas

10 May 19

Mondo TV - Child’s play

Mondo TV has started FY19 in much improved financial health, with a more concentrated portfolio centred on properties with good potential globally. YooHoo has been sold to Netflix as an original series and is now airing internationally, generating revenues and also acting as a flagship project. Licensing revenues should pick up in its wake. Robot Trains should also contribute from this year. The highly competitive environment between terrestrial and SVoD carriers provides a strong trading backdrop as they vie for content. Post the re-basing, Mondo TV is a far less risky investment proposition, yet is priced at a substantial discount to global peers.

Companies: Mondo Tv

10 May 19

Blue Cap - Business as usual

Blue Cap's solid 2018 results were epitomised by a 15% rise in NAV and a positive trading statement. Management confidence in continued operational gains across the board and long-term turnaround potential at Knauer is complemented by an increasing appetite for transformative investments. However, such optimism risks being obscured by the demands of its new major shareholder, PartnerFonds (44%), even if hitherto settled judicially in favour of Blue Cap management, and now looking to be resolved amicably in the interests of all shareholders. Despite more challenging conditions (consensus forecasts have been reduced), the 40% share price discount to NAV (€29.55 at December 2018) appears excessive.

Companies: Blue Cap

10 May 19

Q1 19: over-proportional increase in EBITDA compared to net debt growth

The company registered an over-proportional increase in EBITDA compared to net debt growth, which is a positive and the key fact underlying our investment thesis. Following the good earnings release, we will review our model. In an initial assessment, we expect to keep our Buy recommendation with a higher target price.

Companies: Sacyr

13 May 19

Q1/2019E results preview

Evotec reports Q1/2019 financial results on Tuesday, 14 May 2019. We forecast total revenues of €90m, +14% YoY and adjusted EBITDA of €20m, +43% YoY. While we anticipate robust growth for the EVT Execute business, we expect Q1 overall to be weaker than subsequent quarters this year due to modest milestone income in the EVT Innovate business, which we estimate at <€7m. The expected high EBITDA growth rate reflects the low level achieved in the prior year, where total milestone income was <€3m. Milestones are difficult to time and can therefore cause revenue volatility, with low milestone income also impacting quarterly profitability due to the high gross margin associated with this type of revenue. Nevertheless, we remain optimistic about FY2019 overall given the strong funding environment for biotech companies and the continuing outsourcing trend, with Evotec well positioned to continue benefiting from positive market dynamics. We maintain and reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and €28 target price.

Companies: Evotec

12 Apr 19

Executive interview - Selvita

26 Mar 19

Healthcare - Rebate reform could be just what the doctor ordered

Premium

30 May 18

Executive interview - Banca Sistema

11 Feb 19

Executive interview - Immunicum

08 May 19

Bitesize briefing - Mytilineos

05 Feb 19

Consumer Staples: Our Best Ideas We expect sector rotation into defensives: Buy ABI, Imperial, Reckitt

Premium

20 Mar 19

Bitesize briefing - UmweltBank

25 Jan 19

Capital Goods Value trap – 2019 Outlook

Premium

06 Mar 19

Executive interview – ROVI

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – mVise

28 Feb 19

Executive interview – Cantargia

10 Dec 18

Executive interview - paragon

10 Dec 18

Executive Interview – Mutares

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – Bet-at-home

02 May 17

Executive Interview - Oryzon

Latest Content

HAL Trust

Dredging blast continues, modest growth for consumer assets

Bleak forecasts for Boskalis in 2019; oil prices above $60 support Vopak’s and SBM Offshore’s activities. Optical retail, heading for modest growth, reaffirmed its guidance.

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19 May 19
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Sonae SGPS

In good shape

The good performance in the food retail and the full consolidation of Sonae Sierra are improving the holding company’s top-line and profitability, the discount to NAV retracted to 18.9% but remains attractive.

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19 May 19
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Renault

Senard and Bolloré join Nissan’s Supervisory Board

After the arrest of former CEO Carlos Ghosn in late 2018 in Japan, the Alliance has been in turmoil. Only now has a very first decision been taken by appointing an entirely new Supervisory Board.

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18 May 19
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Compagnie Financiere Richemont

Strong closing of FY18 sales and higher margin dilution from online

Richemont has reported better sales but lower than expected margins in FY18. Comparable sales were up 8%, boosted by the acceleration of watchmakers and the stronger wholesale network. America and Asia have grown by double-digit rates. The operating margin was down 280bp to 13.9% due to higher profit dilution from the online business.

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17 May 19
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Deutsche Rohstoff

Deutsche Rohstoff - US onshore organic growth

Deutsche Rohstoff’s (DRAG) organic investments, c $145m in FY17 and FY18, helped deliver more than 100% growth in FY18 revenues to €109.1m (€53.7m in FY17). Year-on-year sales growth was supported by a material increase in oil and gas production, which almost doubled to 9.4kboed (from 5.1kboed in FY17), combined with higher price realisations. EBITDA rose more than 250% to €97.9m (€36.1m in FY17), while net income (after minority interests) rose to €13.9m (€7.7m in FY17). DRAG’s key focus remains on its US oil and gas interests, with c $70m of organic and internally funded investment planned in 2019. As a result, DRAG guides to EBITDA in the €25–35m range in FY19 and €55–65m in FY20, reflecting recent divestments and underlying growth from Cub Creek Energy.

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17 May 19
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EDP - Energias de Portugal

Brazilian networks ensure growth after adverse weather conditions for renewables

EDP released a pretty good set of Q1 results. Network EBITDA increased 11%, supported by the Brazilian activities, while the rise in electricity prices partially offset unfavourable weather conditions, recurring EBITDA from renewables was down 6%. The group was able to reduce its opex by 2%. Positive view confirmed.

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17 May 19
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PORSCHE AUTOMOBIL HLDG-PRF

Q1 trading statement does not reveal any hard facts

Nearly all of Porsche SE’s profit is the result of the at-equity contribution from VW plus the negative results from its tiny investments in other operations. In addition, the company itself shows small operating expenses including personnel costs.

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17 May 19
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Vallourec

Q1 19 results: a mixed bag

- Q1 19 results were decent on the P&L front - Volumes, prices and savings have helped - However, cash consumption thus net debt still a worry - Management reaffirmed no issue to take place in FY19 - We are less confident and any market downturn would leave no other choice - In short: not bad but still some way to go

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17 May 19
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HELLENIC PETROLEUM

Q1: decent performance considering the environment

It could have been much worse for Elpe, which, despite the physical constraints associated with the scheduled maintenance (volumes are down 13% qoq at 3.6 mt), reported a 9% qoq decline on its realised margin at $9.3/bbl.

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17 May 19
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VICORE PHARMA HOLDING

Key activities on track at Q1/2019 update

At its Q1/2019 update, Vicore confirmed that all pipeline projects are on track. VP01 is expected to enter Phase IIa trials in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis ("IPF") and diffuse systemic sclerosis ("dSSc") in H2/2019E, while VP02 is undergoing formulation work and should start a first-in-human trial in 2020E. From a financial point of view, Vicore reported an operating loss of SEK16m, more than double the SEK7.2m incurred in the prior year, primarily reflecting the higher cost base of the enlarged organisation following the acquisition of INIM in July 2018, but also a marked uptick in R&D expenses associated with the two lead programmes. The cash balance stood at SEK216m, allowing the company to fund operations into 2021E and as such beyond key data points. We maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation and SEK42 target price ("TP"), which is based on a sum-of-the-parts ("SoTP") valuation that includes VP01, VP02 and net cash at YE2019E.