29 Mar 20
Meaningless FY19 results and product update
FY19 results meaningless as usual Some calendar delay due to the COVID-19 crisis The company on track though for first filings in FY20/21 No change to our opinion after the release
02 Apr 20
A darling at a deep discount, conviction Buy
Sbanken is down 34% YTD and we still find M&A likely at some point, but lower our target price as both estimates are lowered and the required return for a potential buyer is probably increased in the current financial turmoil. Our ’20/’21 EPS is lowered 8% following higher loan losses and lower net interest income as a consequence of repricing. Sbanken is one of our darlings and trades at an unwarranted steep discount to book value in our view.
Companies: Sbanken ASA
04 Sep 15
Media - The story so far
In this edition of our biannual sector review, we summarise the manner in which recent results, trading statements and M&A activity have influenced our forecasts and recommendations. Most updates have met expectations/ provided reassurance on full-year prospects; however, recent share price performance has been disappointing and in many cases, primarily influenced by macro factors. We see value across a range of stocks (our top five positive picks are WPP, ITV, UBM, ITE and Quarto Group*) and regard several others as fairly valued. We have no Sell recommendations in place at present.
Companies: CAU ERM INF HYVE ITV MONY NFC PSON QRT UBS WIL WPP DMGT RMV
30 Jan 19
Strong and as expected Q4
A good set of numbers by Novartis overall for Q4 – sales growth of 6% driven by Cosentyx, Entresto, Oncology and Alcon. Pricing pressure showed signs of stabilising. Profitability missed consensus estimates, though narrowly – reported operating profit declined by 29% at cc while the core operating profit grew by 11% to $3.4bn. No surprises in the 2019 outlook, although it excludes the impact of the generic erosion of Gilenya which goes off-patent this year.
04 Apr 19
Alcon will be listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange and the NYSE on 9 April 2019. All Novartis shareholders will get one Alcon share for the five Novartis shares held. We broadly value Alcon at $45-49 per share or $9-9.8 per Novartis share, implying a market cap of $22-24bn, using various valuation methodologies. The DCF-based valuation leads us to a price of $45 per share. From a profitability perspective, considering the growth state that Alcon is in, we have used 2021 as the base value. Using an EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.5x to the 2021 EBITDA – ~20% discount to Carl Zeiss’s multiples – yields us a value of $49 per share. We believe that Carl Zeiss will also continue to trade at a premium due to its exposure to the higher-margin micro-surgery business.
30 May 19
Two blockbusters in a day
Novartis received the approval of two drugs on 24 May 2019 – one-time gene therapy for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and the first and only treatment for breast cancer patients with a PIK3CA mutation. Both the drugs carry blockbuster potential and the approval underpins strong execution by the company in the recent past. SMA drug, Zolgensma, happens to be the world’s most expensive drug.
07 Oct 19
Cancer - Strategy for affordable care
The cancer burden is growing globally. Each year >18 million people are diagnosed, nearly 10 million die and the estimated economic cost exceeds $1 trillion. From early diagnosis to late-stage disease, cancer care often involves inappropriate or unnecessary interventions that drive costs but provide limited clinical benefit. Coupled with an increased understanding of cancer biology and rapid technological advances, this has been driving momentum for precision medicine, leading to patient and societal benefits. The use of biomarkers and sophisticated diagnostics is facilitating early intervention through robot-enabled minimally invasive surgery and locally delivered radiotherapy. Immuno-oncology has revolutionised cancer care, with the focus now on identifying combinations that further improve long-term outcomes. Liquid biopsies and companion diagnostics are increasingly being used to personalise therapy.
Companies: VSC ABT ABBV AFMD A GOOGL AMGN AZN BCART BMY CVRS EKTAB EXAS GSK ILMN IPH ISRG IBAB JNJ MDXH MDG1 MDT MRK MYGN NSTG NOVN OCX PFE QGEN RAYB ROG SAN SGEN TMO TRXC TNG VAR VCYT VNRX XNCR ECX IMM
07 Nov 19
Dupixent continued to run the show in Q3
Q3 was in line and the robust performance in Speciality Care, particularly Dupixent, and Emerging Markets was offset by a dismal show in Vaccines and Consumer Healthcare. While Dupixent and China should continue to be the key growth drivers in the mid-term, we anticipate a recovery in Vaccines and Consumer Healthcare in the coming quarters. However, Oncology is still a question mark. We eagerly wait the new CEO’s first capital markets day in December 2019.
19 Dec 19
New CEO sets aggressive yet achievable targets
Sanofi’s new CEO has identified dupixent and vaccines as the mid-term growth drivers, as the company moves away from slow-growing diabetes and cardiovascular therapeutic areas. Consumer Healthcare and other non-core assets should soon be up for sale and the proceeds could be diverted towards fast-growing therapeutic areas (it acquired an immune-oncology drug recently). With respect to profitability, the recently introduced €2bn cost savings programme holds the key. With a strategy now in place, the CEO should focus on execution from here onwards.
29 Jan 20
New revenue records for 2019, cloudy outlook for 2020
The group has released healthy FY19 results, broadly in line with market expectations. The remarkable performance in Fashion & leather division has continued to be the growth engine, highlighting the persistently strong demand for LV and Christian Dior. However, the group has not given any indication of how the Coronavirus will affect its activity in China and beyond. China accounts for a third of the group’s business, the unpredictable consequence of the epidemic is our main concern.
Companies: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton
06 Feb 20
2019 ended on a healthy note; China focus comes to the fore
With Q4 sales growth of 9%, Novartis ended 2019 on a strong note. Quarterly growth predominantly came from the non-oncology portfolio. Although, Novartis’ oncology business did relatively better than Roche. Unsurprisingly, Sandoz has again lost track of growth, with Q4 impairments forcing an operating loss. Overall, Novartis’ portfolio diversity and recently unveiled focus on China render support to our investment case.
13 Feb 20
FY19 : results in line, major de-risking achieved, starting a new chapter
2019 was an achievement for Airbus on many sides. The company has made good progress in production of the A320-family, with further to come, while some of the major risks that loomed over Airbus is now cleared. We see 2020 as a transition toward a new chapter, with steeper production increases from 2022, improvements in Helicopter and restructuring in Defence & Space.
17 Feb 20
In line Q4; encouraging FY20 guidance by the new CEO
Despite being weighed down by the recall of Zantac, FY19 ended on a decent note on the back of strong traction for Dupixent and Vaccines. The outlook for FY20 is also encouraging as the new CEO places his bet on Dupixent and the growing oncology pipeline during the transition phase. Results of the phase II multiple sclerosis study bodes well for the mid-term. Nonetheless, the Bioverativ deal seems to have back-fired as Roche’s Hemlibra continues to gain strength.
21 Feb 20
In line results but lack of catalysts
Accor released no surprises in the FY19 results. The numbers look very good but maybe the group should make an effort to boost its like-for-like growth on top of benefiting from the various acquisitions.
27 Feb 20
Weak Q4, soft but realistic FY20 EBITDA guidance
A poor Q4, which strongly missed expectations on EBITDA (-5.5% vs. -1.9% expected). While FY20 guidance (2-5% EBITDA growth) appears soft, we believe that it is actually more reasonable following the H2 FY19 troubles which are likely to be exacerbated by the Coronavirus in the first half. Now trading at a discount to peers, we are just waiting for some visible improvements.
Companies: AB INBEV
30 May 18
Executive interview - Banca Sistema
04 Mar 20
Dialog Semiconductor - CEO Interview
20 Mar 19
Bitesize briefing - UmweltBank
09 Dec 19
Executive interview - paragon at EKF 2019
08 Oct 19
Executive interview - RhoVac
09 Dec 19
Executive interview - Expedeon at EKF 2019
10 Dec 18
Executive interview – 2G Energy
09 Dec 19
Executive interview - 2G Energy at EKF 2019
07 Feb 20
Executive interview - Immunicum
09 Dec 19
Executive interview - Magforce at EKF 2019
10 Jan 20
Expected higher margins for Kenmare Resources
09 Dec 19
Executive interview - bet-at-home at EKF 2019
04 Feb 20
Executive interview - Test
09 Dec 19
Executive interview - Nanogate at EKF 2019
29 Jan 20
Executive interview - Cantargia
Scrap the 2019 DPS
We issued a DNB update on March 15th lowering 2020e EPS 10%, mainly as a result of lower NII and higher loan losses. Both the oil market and Covid-19 epidemic has worsened further and Norges Bank has cut the key policy rate another 75bps. The result is that we lower 2020e/2021e EPS/DPS another 9%/7%. We keep our Buy rating, but following additional negative estimate revisions and removal of buybacks we lower our target price to NOK 145 (160).
05 Apr 20
Apple reportedly unveils AirTag name in video
Reportedly, Apple accidentally unveiled the AirTag name in a video The name was reportedly unveiled in a deleted YouTube support video As NOD is used in Apple products and in a similar device tracker (Tile) we would not be surprised if NOD is used in such a tracker if it’s launched
03 Apr 20
Q2 20 will be loss-making
H&M has reported a stronger than expected operating performance for Q1 20 (1 December 2019 – 29 February 2020). The group has limited exposure to China (<6%), so that early impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China has been fully offset by the robust year-end sales in western countries. However, as the COVID-19 is spreading worldwide, over 75% of H&M’s stores have been temporarily closed, sales in March have slumped by 46% and therefore the group is expecting a negative profit for Q2 20.
H & M Hennes & Mauritz
03 Apr 20
Soft Q4; COVID-19 hits operations
OPAP reported soft Q4 19 numbers, missing consensus estimates. The growth in VLTs and sports betting offsets the greater-than-expected weakness in lottery. In light of the COVID-19 outbreak, the firm has suspended the dividend proposal temporarily and extended the OPAP store and gaming hall closures. Following the update, we will be lowering our estimates and target price. Additionally, the firm announced the departure of CEO Damian Cope, who will leave the firm at the end of his contract in May 2020.
03 Apr 20
Revenue update Wednesday
Q1 revenue update Wednesday morning – Arctic in line with consensus We expect dividend reduction – USD 0.2/quarter vs. guidance at 0.375 New mc 2020 guidance expected at USD 350m (current USD 450m) Bearish market comments expected – TGS in a unique position, though
TGS NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL CO
03 Apr 20
Interview with CEO: “surprisingly good”
Interview with CEO in CW signals solid near-term development in Atea Reportedly the hardware business is solid, but high uncertainty in service Dustin 1 April: Solid hardware sale but subdued project-related services This has a slight positive read-across to Atea’s near term figures
03 Apr 20
Leboncoin CEO: “Large drop in activity”
Interview with Leboncoin CEO in local media, confirming activity drop We expect Spain and Italy, and secondly France, to be hardest hit COVID-19 prospects should already be reflected in current valuation Solid long-term prospects, and M&A optionality give downside support
03 Apr 20
Swedish Stirling has announced an action plan to ensure it is well placed to handle the disruptions caused by the coronavirus. This is a company for whom the investment thesis was a long term one based on future potential. The key questions now for investors is whether companies like this can get through the disruption without damaging their potential. Today’s announcement shows that Swedish Stirling is one of those that can.
Swedish Stirling Ab
03 Apr 20