Rest of EMEA

Rest of EMEA equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content we have for listed companies based in the rest of EMEA.

EMEA Equity Research

Broker research, valuations, and analysis on European stocks

02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

14 Nov 19

Healthcare's strong pick-up

Merck’s profitability was materially driven by Healthcare, which generated strong organic growth and the profitability line was additionally helped by some relief from costs. Life Science continued to perform very well. Performance Materials suffered from the decline in Liquid Crystals, as expected, which were not offset by a stronger OLED business and Semiconductor remained subdued. Reported figures were above our expectations and beat the street’s as well.

Companies: Merck

21 Aug 18

Off to the races as NFL season draws closer

The US sports betting market has the potential to be significantly large. However, lack of federal level legislation, sluggish state by state legislative processes, and other limiting factors will cause a likely drag on the sport betting market’s full potential. The American Gaming Association estimates at least $150bn is wagered annually with offshore books, which implies a $10bn - $12bn revenue market. We estimate, onshore online sports revenue in 4 - 5 years of $6bn (table 6, p14) should be achievable across 25 States where Daily Fantasy Sports is legal in 22 states, if we include California, implies a market as large as $7.5bn in revenue. UK listed operators not necessarily only winners as US operators, Stockholm listed and some private companies make early inroads. Sports betting live in New Jersey, Mississippi, Delaware and Nevada, with West Virginia and Pennsylvania expected to follow soon.

Companies: GVC WMH FLTR PTEC SPO 888 GAN NKTN KAMBI GIG SGMS IGT

10 Oct 19

Impressive LVMH

LVMH has reported better than expected sales and maintained its pace of growth in Q3. Organically, group revenue increased by 11%, boosted by a 19% jump in fashion and leather goods. LVMH has confirmed once again its high growth and strong profile.

Companies: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton

01 Nov 19

Sales accelerate further in Q3 driven by lenses and retail

EssilorLuxottica witnessed a robust acceleration in sales in Q3 (+5.2% at CER), driven by new product launches in the lenses business, good dynamics in retail (both offline and online) and steady growth in fast-growing markets. However, the wholesale business lost pace due to softer demand in the Asia-Pacific region. Given 9M 19 sales of +4.3% and considering the ongoing launch of the next-gen Transitions lens in other countries, the FY19 sales growth target of +3.5-5% is comfortably within reach. ADD.

Companies: Essilor International

13 Nov 19

Q3 19: quite in line, with order-book improving

Q3 19 a bit weak apparently, topline-wise, but the comparison basis was high Margins were fine and in line with our forecasts Q4 should see a rebound in Projects, which we welcome No reason to change materially our numbers and target price, despite the soft market reaction

Companies: Prysmian

13 Nov 19

Dear share buy-back

The accrued impact of Berlin’s rent-freeze should be €330m between 2020 and 2025, of which €190m in unrealised revenue growth, vs. the current €15bn NAV. If this impact is provisional (five years only?), the dimension of this potential one-off now looks clearer. And… pretty limited.

Companies: Deutsche Wohnen

13 Nov 19

Photocure - US sales up 53% compared to last year

Photocure announced Q319 results, with 18% revenue growth for the Hexvix/Cysview franchise (vs Q318) to NOK51.1m. US sales of NOK25.2m were up 53% as the region continues to be the growth driver for the company while both Nordic and partner revenue fell (by 7% and 2% respectively) compared to the same period a year ago. Sales in the US continue to be driven mainly by improved reimbursement, added sales resources and a higher installed base of blue light cystoscopes. There are now 211 installed cystoscopes in the US, indicating 12% growth in the installed base over the quarter and up 34% since the beginning of 2019.

Companies: PHOTOCURE

13 Nov 19

Q3 19: disappointing and mounting labour cost inflation risk

The results were disappointing as reported net profit was a mere €6m and free cash flow reported €5m. The skilled labour shortage, which could result in a war for talent and labour price increases, remains a key risk to the company’s margin. Management believes it is well positioned to increase the prices of its services. Following this earnings release, we expect to keep our target price mainly unchanged.

Companies: Bilfinger

13 Nov 19

Q3: promising customer base increase

The group continues its promising growth, driven by the Gas division thanks to the larger amount of trading and higher earnings in last resort services. The group was able to reduce its net debt/EBITDA ratio to 2.5x. We confirm our positive view regarding the group’s strategy, but with a limited upside for the share price.

Companies: HERA

14 Nov 19

Two Phase IIa trials to start by YE2019E

Vicore Q3/2019 results reflected a smaller net loss than we had anticipated, due largely to lower R&D and other external expenses. Although we expect R&D costs to increase in Q4 vs. Q3 as lead asset VP01 enters two Phase IIa trials, we have lowered our FY2019E forecasts for operating expenses and hence net loss. We have also updated our model for the recent SEK125m directed share issue, which on our estimates extends the cash runway into 2021E. While this has also lowered our valuation and hence target price ("TP") to SEK43 (from SEK47), the latter remains well above the current share price, which in our view substantially undervalues Vicore's pipeline assets. Hence, we maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation.

Companies: VICORE PHARMA HOLDING

14 Nov 19

Medigene - Q319 results highlight successful year to date

Enrolment of patients in Medigene’s MDG1011 Phase I/II trial continues, albeit at a slower rate than initially expected, with initial data from the first three dose cohorts expected in Q420. Following promising interim data earlier in the year, the company forecasts that top-line dendritic cell (DC) vaccine data will be presented in Q120. In expanding the clinical pipeline, Medigene has announced that MDG1021 (HA-1 targeting TCR) will start its clinical programme in H120. Partnerships continue to progress well with bluebird bio announcing that the MAGE-A4 product will enter the clinic in 2020. In addition, partner Cyotvant has announced that the first TCR (CVT-TCR-01) product candidate will focus on patients with either NY-ESO-1 expressing synovial sarcoma, MM or solid tumours, while a DC vaccine (CVT-DC-01) will be tested in patients with WT-1/PRAME expressing AML. We value Medigene at €465m (€18.94/share).

Companies: MediGene

14 Nov 19

Q3: back the higher allowed WACC

The group benefited from the increase in the allowed WACC for its regulated activities, and non-regulated activites increased after a positive scope effect. To a lesser extent, cost reduction was also an EBITDA growth contributor. Positive view on the stock confirmed.

Companies: Snam

15 Nov 19

Again, healthy quarterly results

Even though the market conditions remain challenging, Mayr-Melnhof Karton achieved strong Q3 19 results. Varying improvements materialised in both divisions. While we don’t expect the market headwinds to retreat anytime soon, the group should remain a beneficiary of the still high untapped potential of (European) packaging markets.

Companies: Mayr-Melnhof Karton

15 Nov 19

Another good quarter, another guidance upgrade

Sartorius Stedim reported solid Q3 19 results. Sales were up 16.4%, on a cc basis, while EBITDA came in at €110.2m (margin +140bp). Following the strong showing, management upgraded its FY 19 top-line growth guidance to the upper end of the earlier 12-16% range while re-iterating its EBITDA margin expectations of 29.2% (+1pp vs FY 18). The company also announced the acquisition of parts of Danaher’s life sciences business. Following the strong performance, we will be upgrading our estimates.

Companies: Sartorius Stedim Biotech

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – EQS Group

30 Jul 19

Bitesize briefing - UmweltBank

08 Nov 19

Bitesize briefing - Deutsche Beteiligungs

26 Mar 19

Healthcare - Rebate reform could be just what the doctor ordered

Premium

17 Jul 19

Bitesize briefing - Technicolor

06 Mar 19

Executive interview – ROVI

17 Jul 19

Executive interview - Tinexta

12 Feb 19

Bitesize briefing - Orexo

20 Mar 19

Bitesize briefing - UmweltBank

05 Feb 19

Consumer Staples: Our Best Ideas We expect sector rotation into defensives: Buy ABI, Imperial, Reckitt

Premium

07 Dec 18

Executive Interview - Nanogate

25 Jan 19

Capital Goods Value trap – 2019 Outlook

Premium

29 May 19

Executive interview – Basilea Pharmaceutica

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – mVise

08 Apr 19

Executive interview - Claranova

Latest Content

ThyssenKrupp

Shareholders' funds €1.75bn but €12.7bn of net debt plus pension provisions

The above numbers suggest that thyssenkrupp stands with its back to the wall. The group’s earnings were lower than we had anticipated, but equity has fallen by clearly more than we had pencilled in. This is the result of other comprehensive income that amounted to a loss of €842m (loss of €51m in the previous year). Consequently, no dividend will be paid.

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21 Nov 19
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Crossject

A €2.6m non-dilutive issue

Crossject has announced it has obtained a €2.6m non-dilutive financing from IdVector Science and Technology, a European investor specialising in long-term non-dilutive financing of technology.

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20 Nov 19
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Igas Energy PANORO ENERGY

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

IGas (IGAS LN) (not covered): Update in the UK | Panoro Energy (PEN NO) (not covered): 3Q19 results

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20 Nov 19
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Volkswagen

VW Group deliveries up by 12% in October

While the ytd number continues to be in negative territory (-0.2% to 8.96m), deliveries reached 950k in the last month. This very good growth rate was achieved in Europe (+26% to 371k), whereas the growth rates were more moderate in other regions (Nafta: +0.9% to 80k, LatAm: -1.2% to 54k, APAC: +5.6% to 389k). Excluding China, deliveries fell by 9.4% to 24k in all other Asian countries, i.e. the group is hardly present in all the other Asian countries.

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20 Nov 19
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L'Oreal

American weakness vs. Chinese strengths

L’Oréal has unexpectedly announced the best quarterly growth in more than a decade, after a slowing Q2 19, by showing strong business resilience. Although the sluggish demand in the US make-up market has persisted, we believe that the strong appetite of Chinese consumers for luxury cosmetics and the booming dermo-cosmetics market could offset the weakness in the US. Most importantly, we are upbeat about China’s rising demand for fragrances.

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19 Nov 19
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Mondo Tv

Mondo TV - Growing library in a content-hungry world

Mondo TV’s Q3 results continued in the more positive vein established in H1, with the flow of new content and licensing agreements carrying through into Q4 across a good range of properties, including new titles in the German JV with Toon2Tango. In October, the group announced new licensing deals in Russia with Gazprom Media and PJSC MegaFon for the streaming of Mondo TV library content. These deals help rebalance group revenues, historically heavily biased to Asia. Management’s business plan for FY19–FY23 (to which we have built in a degree of contingency) is unchanged, as are our forecasts.

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19 Nov 19
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PTAL BP/ NOG TETY WRL

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN): 3Q19 results | BP (BP LN) (not covered): Acquiring Indonesia assets | Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN)6 ; REDUCE, £0.10: 3Q19 results | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)1,6; BUY, SEK85: October production in Oman | Wentworth Resources (WEN LN) (not covered): Operating update in Tanzania

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19 Nov 19
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Evotec

Strong momentum to continue into 2020E

Evotec reported strong Q3/2019 results that beat our and consensus' estimates. All business segments delivered a solid performance, including the recently acquired biologics business. We expect the positive trend to continue into 2020E and have therefore lifted 2019E - 2023E revenues by 1% - 2% and adj. EBITDA by up to 6%. Our FY2019E forecasts are 3% - 5% above revised company outlook and we think that the risk to our estimates is to the upside. Evotec shares are trading significantly below our valuation; hence, we believe that the current price provides an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to a long-term structural growth story. We reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and €28 target price ("TP").

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19 Nov 19
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Tecnoinvestimenti

Tinexta - Encouraging signs for Q419

Tinexta’s Q319 results confirmed trends from earlier in the year: improving momentum for its largest business unit, Digital Trust, given structural growth drivers of digital security, and weak growth for its least important division, Credit Information & Management, due to macro sensitivity. Q3 is typically a seasonally less important quarter (23% of annual revenue in FY18) ahead of a more important Q4 (29% of annual revenue in FY18). Our forecasts for FY19 and FY20 are unchanged, as is our valuation. Our DCF-based valuation of €14.6/share offers c 25% upside from the current price.

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19 Nov 19
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Julius Baer Gruppe

Profit warning sweetened by a share buy-back programme

• Ten months 2019 statement as always without income statement figures • AuM rose by 10% to CHF422bn at the end of October 2019 compared to the end of 2018 • Launch of a share buy-back programme of up to CHF400m • Goodwill impairment of around CHF100m on Kairos investment in 2019

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