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Broker research, valuations, and analysis on European stocks

21 Sep 20

Cenkos: Oil & Gas -- Trinity Exploration & Production, Argos Resources, Union Jack Oil, Apache Corporation, Enwell Energy, Caspian Sunrise, Red Emperor Resources, Sterling Energy, Rockhopper Exploration, Deltic Energy, President Energy, Reabold Resources,

Saudi Arabia's warning to OPEC+ cheaters and short-sellers alike helped oil prices stage their biggest weekly rally since June, despite a grim start to the week as industry heavyweights painted a troubling demand picture for the petroleum complex. Futures in New York rose 10% this week following a show of determination by Saudi Arabia, the most influential nation in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, to defend the market on Thursday. The Saudis hinted they are prepared for new production cuts, and lambasted OPEC+ members that have cheated on production quotas. Prices briefly fell as much as 1.6% on Friday following an announcement from Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar that he will allow crude production and exports to resume. But while Haftar reached the agreement with the country's deputy premier, it was unclear whether the deal that excluded the National Oil Co would actually restart exports. Haftar controls most of eastern Libya and has halted operations and shipments from his territory as part of a campaign against the internationally recognised Tripoli government. The OPEC member is pumping just 80,000 barrels a day, but produced 1.2 million a day last year. Oil reversed last week's losses, which pushed West Texas Intermediate futures toward $37 a barrel amid a slew of downbeat demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency to Trafigura Group and BP Plc. Helping support prices this week, US government data showed crude and gasoline stockpiles declining. American oil stockpiles are now at their lowest since April. But crude may not be out of the woods just yet, with distillate supplies at record highs and refining margins for the fuel deteriorating in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, rising coronavirus infections in Europe raise the spectre of a return to tighter restrictions that have crippled consumption. Prices  West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose 14 cents to settle at $41.11 a barrel.  Brent for November settlement lost 15 cents to end the session at $43.15 a barrel. The contract rose 8.3% this week, its largest weekly gain since June.

Companies: FO PRP 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG

07 Apr 20

The Promised Land

Red Dwarf, the very British sci-fi comedy franchise, ran for 11 seasons – most recently in 2017; and The Promised Land is a feature-length TV movie – out this year. Yes, the programme is an acquired taste. Strangely, too, many episodes are impacted by a virus or three (physiological, not main-frame).

Companies: WJG BKG CSP CRST MCS INL BDEV RDW GLE SPR TW/ PSN VTY GLV CRN ABBY BWY

22 Sep 20

2G Energy - Hydrogen ready

2G Energy’s product portfolio of CHP systems positions it to benefit from the transition from coal and nuclear-powered electricity generation to increasing use of wind and solar sources augmented by natural gas to balance supply and demand. In the longer term, 2G has proven technology to address the potential switch from natural gas to hydrogen. However, there still will be significant demand for 2G’s bio-gas and natural gas powered systems if adoption of hydrogen as an energy storage medium is delayed or derailed.

Companies: 2G Energy AG

01 Sep 20

THE MONTHLY September 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact globally in many areas. While primarily a health issue, it has had wide-ranging implications for stock markets, which have now rallied after the plunge in share prices in mid-March when the full severity of the emerging pandemic became more widely appreciated. Nonetheless, the FTSE 100 Index remains almost 20% off its late February 2020 figure.

Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX CLIG DNL GDR ICGT NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW

22 Sep 20

Innovating in open banking

CREALOGIX is a leading, global, digital banking engagement platform provider. In FY20, revenues grew 1.7% to CHF103.7m, with adjusted EBITDA rising to CHF2.4m, slightly below our expectations. Revenues grew 13.2% in H220 vs H120, with minimal impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. Recurring revenues continued to rise to 44%, with SaaS 17% of the mix, while international sales fell to 62%. Management announced a reorganisation (with a CHF7m provision) to accelerate the SaaS transition, funded by the CHF25m convertible H120 bond refinancing. The SaaS transition will be a drag in FY21 (although we expect stronger margins in H221), before a full year of benefit in FY22. We have lowered our forecasts slightly to reflect a more uncertain global economic outlook.

Companies: CREALOGIX Holding AG

25 Sep 20

Auctus on Friday - 25/09/2020

GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price US$20.00 per share: All eyes on CPO-5 - We see the CPO-5 block becoming a key area of focus in the next 18 months and the main reason behind the acquisition of AMERISUR in January 2020. By YE20, GeoPark will drill two wells on the highly prospective CPO-5 block. This will include an imminent development/appraisal well in the Indico light oil field followed by an exploration well. The only existing well in the Indico field is still flowing naturally at >5 mbbl/d since first oil in December 2018. The implied very strong reservoir performance and the fact that the oil pool boundaries have not been encountered yet suggest the field offers production and reserves upside that could start to be unlocked with upcoming drilling. In 2021, GeoPark could drill an additional 5-7 wells at CPO-5 comprising a combination of exploration, delineation and development wells. According to the latest CPR, 3-4 new Indico wells could add 7.5-12.5 mbbl/d gross production (2.5-4.2 mbbl/d net to GeoPark) in 1-2 years. The exploration program for 2021 will likely test the continuity of the Guadalupe play encountered on Llanos-34 into CPO-5. The share price trades at ~55% discount to our Core NAV of ~US$17. Overall there could be 350-700 mmboe gross prospective resources across the Llanos blocks (including CPO-5) that GeoPark is imminently starting to explore. Our target price of US$20 per share reflects our ReNAV. It represents ~150% upside to the current levels. IN OTHER NEWS ________________________________________ AMERICAS Gran Tierra Energy (GTE CN/LN): Production update in Colombia – During 3Q20 to date, production has averaged ~18.700 boe/d increasing to an average of 21,250 boe/d during September, reflecting the resumption of production at the Suroriente and PUT-7 Blocks in the southern Putumayo region, as well as at several minor fields, and by the recommencement of workover activities at the Acordionero oil field. As of August 31, 2020, Gran Tierra has collected total VAT and income tax receivables of ~US$51 mm; the company expects to collect approximately another US$25 to $35 mm before YE20. FY21 WI production is expected to be >30,000 boe/d. Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Resources update in Alaska – The SMD horizon at the Talitha prospect is estimated to hold 302 mmbbl prospective resources. 91 wells would be required to develop the field that would reach 90 mbbl/d peak production. Pantheo holds 89.2% of the project. EUROPE IGas Energy (IGAS LN): 1H20 results – 1H20 net production in the UK was d ~1,940 boe/d. Cash balances as at 30 June 2020 were £2.6 mm with net debt of £11.2 mm. IGas reiterated its FY20 production guidance 1,850 - 2,050 boe/d, with underlying cash operating expenses anticipated to be $34/boe. Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN): Selling assets in Norway – Shell is selling its interests in the Kvitebjørn and Valemon fields in the North Sea to PGNiG. UK Oil & Gas (UKOG LN): Updated volumetric at UK asset – The Loxley Accumulation is now expected to hold 23-70 bcf recoverable resources. ~78% of the overall Loxley gas accumulation's gas resource are interpreted to lie within the Company's PEDL234 acreage. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Genel Energy (GENL LN): Receives payment from the KRG – Genel has received a total net payment of US$10.8 mm for sales at Tawke and Taq Taq in August. Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Oman entry – Maha has been awarded 100% WI in the onshore Block 70 that includes the shallow undeveloped Mafraq heavy oil field. The Block is located in the middle of the oil producing Ghaba Salt Basin in the central part of Oman. The Mafraq oil field was discovered by Petroleum Development Oman in 1988 and was further delineated by four wells and 3D seismic in stages until 2010. The Mafraq field is estimated to contain between 185 – 280 mmbbl of original oil in place. The productive reservoir is located at approximately 430 m below ground level. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Africa Energy (AEC SS/AFE CN): Private placement – Africa Energy has raised US$28 mm of new equity priced at SEK3.00 per share. San Leon Energy (SLE LN): 1H20 results – Gross oil sales at OML-18 were 25.2 mbbl/d during 1H20 with gas sales of 39.1 mmcf/d. Production downtime and “losses” were respectively 15% and 20% over the period. San Leon held US$22.6 mm in cash as at 18 September (US$6.8 mm is held in escrow for the Oza transaction).

Companies: GENL GPRK MAHAA RDSA UKOG

26 Sep 20

Upgrade to FY 2020 after robust H1 navigation (SFPI Group)

Upgrade to FY 2020 after robust H1 navigation EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS2020 : € 0.08 vs 0.00 +2,379% 2021 : € 0.17 vs 0.16 +1.83% The H1 20 delivery was a good surprise with a contained loss at €4.4m on sales down 21%, also a positive surprise for an industrial group mostly located in France where the lockdown has been a pretty harsh one. We allowed for a modest degree of recovery in H2 with FY sales down 13%. While operating margins are being slashed (higher costs, missing volumes here, saturated tools there) turning a profit may not be out of reach. This explains the 2020 earnings rebound from zero to some €7.5m adjusted from goodwill impairments. CHANGE IN DCF€ 2.96 vs 2.65 +11.6% The DCF mechanically benefits from a reset of the 2020 expectations to positive earnings territories. The 2021 and 2022 have been only marginally raised as they already allowed for a recovery.

Companies: Groupe SFPI SA

28 Sep 20

Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Falcon Oil & Gas, Neptune Energy, San Leon Energy, IGas Energy, Coro Energy, ADES Holding, Longboat Energy, Ascent Resources, Prospex Energy, Borders & Southern, Africa Energy Corp, UK Oil & Gas, INEOS, President Energy, Reabold

Oil fell this week amid growing concerns that another wave of the coronavirus pandemic will spark tighter lockdown measures and further stifle crude demand. New York futures edged lower Friday and fell 2.1% on the week. The number of US coronavirus cases rose above 7 million, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Meanwhile, a second governor tested positive for Covid-19 as cases surge around the country. At the same time, the market is contending with returning supply. Oil traders have reported a sharp increase in Iraqi exports for next month, while output from Libya has shown signs of rising this week. US crude's gradual climb since May has come to a halt in September, with futures on track to drop about 5.5% this month. Still, Goldman Sachs Group Inc said oil consumption is currently just above 93 million barrels a day and may rise 1.8 million a day to the end of the year. Yet, any meaningful recovery in consumption has so far been held back by the lingering pandemic. Prices:  West Texas Intermediate for November delivery edged 6 cents lower to settle at $40.25 a barrel.  Brent for November dipped 2 cents to end the session at $41.92 a barrel. The contract lost 2.9% this week. In a sign of just how damaging the virus has been to oil demand, the industry's largest tankers next year will earn 8% less than they were anticipating back in May, according to a survey of shipping analysts by Bloomberg. That comes as nations including Saudi Arabia and Russia have drastically scaled back output, draining the hoard at sea and diminishing the flow of cargoes. The spread between Nymex gasoline futures and WTI rallied over 9% on Friday toward $10 a barrel. Still, the so-called crack remains at its lowest seasonally since 2013. At the same time, Gulf Coast gasoline climbed to a one-month high as refiners snapped up winter-grade fuel and on dwindling fall stockpiles. Meanwhile, the physical market for actual barrels of crude is not providing much optimism either. Bakken crude for delivery at Clearbrook, Minnesota, this week hit the largest discount to Nymex WTI futures in two weeks. Other oil-market drivers:  Oil executives are rushing to build a war chest of federal permits to drill in New Mexico as they brace for a fracking ban proposed by US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.  Russia will ship slightly more flagship Urals crude from its key western ports next month, though the volume will remain well below its usual level, a sign that nation continues to adhere to its OPEC+ alliance commitment to keep output constrained.  Exxon Mobil Corp. has narrowed the list of bidders for its oil-producing offshore assets in Malaysia that could potentially raise $2 billion to $3 billion in a sale, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Companies: FO PRP 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG

28 Sep 20

Serinus Energy* - Covenant waiver received

Covenant waiver received

Companies: Serinus Energy Plc

21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN JET2 DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

25 Mar 20

Now double risks on Orpea’s reliable business model

Orpea once again announced in line and supportive FY results. We remain confident in its solid fundamentals. However, we worry about the extent the current Coronavirus pandemic could affect the group’s business model, knowing that Orpea now needs to face double the risks on healthcare and property.

Companies: Orpea SA

28 Apr 20

Low impact of COVID-19 in Q1 20

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was limited in Q1 20. Organic revenue growth was +3.3% thanks to the good performance of the public sector in Scandinavia, solid growth of the two joint-ventures in the UK and the activities related to the information system for the Sparda banks in Germany. Q2 20 is expected to be more difficult with a decrease in organic revenue of 7-15% depending on customers’ reactions to the economic situation.

Companies: Sopra Steria Group SA

02 Jun 20

SP Angel Healthcare Conditions-02-06-2020

Novacyt (NCYT.L): COVID-19 update

Companies: Novacyt SAS

05 Jun 20

Becoming a “YouTube” for education

We expect Kahoot’s upcoming trading update to be a positive event, and see limited risk for its Q2 guidance. The company is well positioned to enter the next growth phase, in our view, from getting paid per “hosts” to also monetize the users – and we see multiple other potential catalysts. Over time, Kahoot could become a “YouTube for education”, a place to visit for education/learning. We reiterate our Buy rating and target price at NOK 125.

Companies: Kahoot! AS

03 Jul 20

Departing

Kahoot again beat expectations, with Q2 revenues growing by 49% vs. Q1 (Q1: 21% q-q). Several new products are launching in 2H, supporting growth in paid subscriptions and ARPU. Kahoot now monetizes 1.4% of its “hosts” (Q2: 20m, Q1: 17m). With several potential catalysts ahead, including our assumption of increased 2020 guidance, moving to the main listing in Q1/21, its new “Kahoot Academy” and potential partnerships, we maintain our Buy rating.

Companies: Kahoot! AS

10 Jan 20

Expected higher margins for Kenmare Resources

16 Jul 20

STRATEC - executive interview

30 May 18

Executive interview - Banca Sistema

18 Jun 20

Basilea Pharmaceutica - executive interview

29 Jan 20

Executive interview - Cantargia

14 May 20

Pixium Vision - executive interview

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – 2G Energy

13 May 20

OSE Immunotherapeutics - executive interview

20 Mar 19

Bitesize briefing - UmweltBank

07 May 20

bet-at-home - executive interview

04 Feb 20

Executive interview - Test

06 May 20

Mynaric - executive interview

06 Dec 18

Executive Interview - Delignit

17 Apr 20

Executive interview - PIERER Mobility

08 Oct 19

Executive interview - RhoVac

Latest Content

Leading in Alzheimer's with major deals in pipeline

With its Phase IIb VIVIAD trial fully funded and recruing, Vivoryon ("VVY") leads in next generaon Alzheimer's Disease ("AD") therapy. Targeng both neurotoxic and inflammatory components of AD via glutaminyl cyclase ("QPCT"), varoglutamstat ("PQ912") has already shown efficacy in early disease. A posive outcome in the current Phase IIb trial should provide the basis for substanal licensing deal and even condional approval in 2023E  2024E, Nearer term, with QPCT acvity strongly implicated in progression of cancer and inflammaon, the growing body of clinical experience in AD may provide the basis for transformaonal licensing  co-development deals on PQ912 and  or its family. Our sum of the parts ("SoTP") valuaon indicates a fair value 4 - 5 mes the current market cap on the basis of AD alone. We recommend the stock OUTPERFORM with an increased TP of €25  share.

Vivoryon Therapeutics AG

28 Sep 20
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H1 behind with limited scars; H2 partial reversion to normal

Tight, reactive management and a strong balance sheet policy saved the day in locked-down times. Management is cautious but the small industrial conglomerate holds the cards for a return to dividend payments in 2021.

Groupe SFPI SA

28 Sep 20
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Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Falcon Oil & Gas, Neptune Energy, San Leon Energy, IGas Energy, Coro Energy, ADES Holding, Longboat Energy, Ascent Resources, Prospex Energy, Borders & Southern, Africa Energy Corp, UK Oil & Gas, INEOS, President Energy, Reabold

FO PRP 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG

28 Sep 20
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Serinus Energy* - Covenant waiver received

Covenant waiver received

Serinus Energy Plc

28 Sep 20
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Upgrade to FY 2020 after robust H1 navigation (SFPI Group)

Groupe SFPI SA

26 Sep 20
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FinLab - Positive catalysts at portfolio holdings

FinLab posted a strong NAV total return in H120 (+9.5%), driven by the solid share price performance of its only listed holding, Heliad Equity Partners (HEP). Moreover, HEP’s partial exit from online broker flatex announced in July 2020 increases the likelihood of a higher management fee and potentially a performance fee in 2021 to be charged by Heliad Management, which is fully owned by FinLab. Meanwhile, FinLab’s portfolio holding Authada attracted a new investor, Italian-listed TMT company Tinexta.

FinLab AG

25 Sep 20
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Exasol - Winning new business despite COVID-19

Exasol made solid progress in H120, growing annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 18% half-on-half and 30% year-on-year. Overall revenue declined 8% year-on-year as the number of perpetual licences signed fell, in line with the company’s strategy to focus on subscription licensing. Cash proceeds from the recent IPO contributed to the €40m net cash position at the end of H120, providing more than adequate funding to support the growth of the company until it reaches cash flow profitability.

Exasol AG

25 Sep 20
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FY19/20: not too bad

The group’s results were very decent in the pandemic context The Plant-making business has shown its resilience Steel-making is suffering more, in line with its higher cyclicality The outlook is rather vague, but we keep a positive stance over the long run We will adjust our numbers, slightly down over FY20/21

Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche SpA

25 Sep 20
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More than ever in the middle of a speculative battle

Lagardère’s share price is up more than 30% this morning after Group Arnault announced it had taken a 5% direct stake in the group. The speculative battle is at its height with a number of players around.

Lagardère SCA

25 Sep 20
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Does Hella’s FY21 ambition have any basis?

Hella posted Q1 21 revenue down 10.6% yoy, driven by its OEM front (-12.6% yoy). Coupled with negative growth, a lower utilisation rate and restructuring costs (€171.7m) led to net income of €-87.3m (vs. €77.1m in Q1 20). Consequently, FCF fell to €-244.3m (vs. vs. €66.8m in Q1 19), exacerbated by a 2% yoy capex increase and unfavourable working capital. Lastly, the company confirmed its outlook with revenue of €5.6-6.1bn and an EBIT margin of 4-6%.

HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA