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Rest of EMEA equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content we have for listed companies based in the rest of EMEA.

EMEA Equity Research

Broker research, valuations, and analysis on European stocks

12 Jul 18

Optical biopsies for increased diagnostic accuracy

We initiate coverage of Mauna Kea Technologies with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and a target price of €4.10 per share. Mauna Kea is a commercial stage medical device company headquartered in Paris, France. The company's main product, Cellvizio, is a market-leading confocal laser endomicroscopy system used for in-depth analysis of cellular microstructure, facilitating the real-time identification of pre-cancerous lesions in anatomical tracts such as the gastrointestinal and pulmonary tract. In addition to Cellvizio, the company markets Cellvizio Dual Band for pre-clinical, non-human research, as well as a range of disposable probes for each of its systems. We believe the company is well-positioned to enter a period of accelerated growth, driven mainly by Mauna Kea's new business model in the US and improved reimbursement structures for procedures involving Cellvizio. We forecast strong revenue growth at a 2018E-2022E revenue CAGR of 27% and expect profitability from 2022E.

Companies: Mauna Kea Technologies SAS

13 Jul 18

Positive read-across from BAN2401 Phase II data

Eisai / Biogen recently reported positive top-line data for the 856-patient Phase II trial Study 201 for the anti-amyloid beta ("Abeta") protofibril mAb BAN2401 in early Alzheimer's disease ("AD"). This is the first time a late-stage trial in AD shows disease-modifying effects with regard to both Abeta reduction in the brain and an improvement of clinical function. Importantly, the data supports the Abeta hypothesis for AD therapy and is a much-needed development following a string of late-stage failures. This is good news for Probiodrug, whose lead asset PQ912 has a unique mechanism of action that inhibits the formation of toxic products of Abeta without interfering with important physiological processes. We understand that Probiodrug is exploring multiple options to finance the PQ912 Phase IIb trial that is expected to start enrolling patients in Q4/2018E. We maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation.

Companies: Probiodrug

13 Jul 18

A convertible bond and potential options for existing shareholders

Crossject announced the principle of granting of free options (“BSA”) to existing shareholders (to compensate for the fact the ones granted in February could not be exercised) as well as the issue of another convertible bond (€2.5m). The convertible bond (maturity two years after issuance) will not bear interest and Gemme Ventures, the company’s historic shareholder, will contribute €0.8m to the total subscription. The subscription price will be 92% of nominal value and the conversion price will be the lowest between €3.36 and a weighted average share price less 10% prior to the conversion.

Companies: Crossject

19 Jul 18

The long arm of BASF

BASF’s outage of the citral plant at the end of October 2017 (declaration of Force Majeure) still impacts the value chain and burdens Fragrance’s profitability as these businesses have to buy stock for any(?) price in order to secure sourcing. The impact from which has been stronger than expected and profitability in H1 came in lower than expected. Consensus was broadly met.

Companies: Givaudan

19 Jul 18

Q2: Snus remain strong

A very good quarter driven by snus in Scandinavia and outside the region. We expect to upgrade our profitability forecast for the Snus segment following the upgraded guidance.

Companies: Swedish Match

23 Feb 18

Underpinned by French residential reforms

Nexity released its FY17 results, exceeding its initial targets as well as our estimates. The company saw its market share growing by 1.6bp to 14.1%. Revenues were up by 14% yoy to €3.5bn and EBITDA up by 21% yoy at €368m, improving margins from 9.9% in FY16 to 10.5% in FY17. For FY17, the dividend per share was increased to €2.50 (vs. €2.20 in FY16, slightly above estimates).

Companies: Nexity

14 May 18

Exploration strategy already delivering results

The Exploration well Tibyan-1, located about 9 km southwest of the Erfan-1 discovery resulted in a small oil discovery. The well is planned to be connected to the production system during 2Q18. Exploration well Luja-1, drilled in the southern part of Block 4 encountered oil shows. The well is undergoing extensive evaluation until the latter part of 2Q18. An appraisal well drilled encountered oil in the Barik sandstone at the undrilled Fault block U. The well has been connected to the production system. We’ve assumed the Tibyan-1 well is around half the volume of what we carry for the previous Erfan-1 discovery and have added this to our ReNAV. This increases our target price to SEK85; we maintain our BUY recommendation.

Companies: Tethys Oil

04 Jul 18

MagForce - NanoTherm US prostate cancer trial initiates

MagForce has announced the enrolment of the first patient in its pivotal clinical trial evaluating NanoTherm focal ablation therapy in the US for prostate cancer. The trial started as expected in Q218 and further patient recruitment is underway at the two clinical sites (CHRISTUS Santa Rosa and the University of Washington). Prostate cancer presents a significant market opportunity in the US (representing ~60% of our rNPV) and makes sense strategically as a first US indication.

Companies: MagForce

16 Jul 18

Melanoma data major catalyst in second half

With the share price down over half from it's early 2018 peak, 4SC's valuation looks justified on the basis of it pivotal resminostat programme alone. The market ascribes little value to the immunotherapy combination programme with dominatostat now in Phase II. Although sentiment toward immuotherapy has deteriorated in the wake of the negative Incyte-Merck epacadostat ("IDO-1") data, we contend the dominatostatpembrolizumab ("pembro") immunotherapy combo still holds promise. Preclinical studies and data from sub-optimally dosed drugs of the same class support a synergy between immune checkpoint inhibitors ("ICI") and dominatostat. Interim data expected from the dominatostat-pembro phase II ("SENSITIZE") melanoma study in H2/2018E could provide a substantial catalyst for the stock. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM recommendation and our target price of €10.

Companies: 4Sc

16 Jul 18

Vehicle sales were up by 10% in H1 18

Renault saw its car sales rising to more then 2.06m in H1 18. However, about half of the absolute growth number of 185k units was the result of the first-time consolidation of the new Chinese joint-venture with Brilliance. Excluding this, the growth rate was 5.3%. In fact, excluding this number from the total reported for APAC, the regional sales number was down by 15% to 85k instead of the reported growth rate of 70% to 170k. Nevertheless, Renault’s sales growth rate accelerated in Europe in Q2 18 (+5.8%) compared to Q1 (+2.8%). The regional number represented 52% of all vehicles sold worldwide. This was primarily but not exclusively driven by strong demand in France where the H1 sales number was up by 5.8% to 389k. The other all-important market is Eurasia, i.e. Russia. Sales in that region were up by 22% in Q1 and by 10% in Q2 which has brought the H1 number to 372k vehicles, an increase of 15%.

Companies: Renault

17 Jul 18

Target upgrade by 19.2% (Ecoslops)

TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 24.3 vs 20.4 +19.2% The upgrade allows for final 2017 figures which confirm that the Sines plant is in FCF mode and thus can be valued less as a project and more as a cash cow. Other units in the pipeline have been similary upgraded. CHANGE IN EPS2018 : € 0.03 vs 0.05 -45.8% 2019 : € 0.23 vs -0.52 ns 2017 earnings have been more than breaking even which was not a given and provides a sound base for the following years. The upgrades to 2018 and 2019 reflect improving operating conditions as realisation prices for refined products are somewhat more attractive than nine months ago. The rise in inputs (slops) does not offset these realisation gains. CHANGE IN NAV€ 31.9 vs 20.1 +58.8% The NAV computation is now based on the 2020 EBITDA for Sines and time-adjusted similar multiples for other refining units as they are gradually fired up. We have allowed for a cautious valuation for smaller "refinery in a box" Mini P2Rs soon to be tested. CHANGE IN DCF€ 26.1 vs 29.0 -9.93% The DCF has been revised to only allow for projects currently in the pipeline.

Companies: Ecoslops

17 Jul 18

Tomtom upgrades its FY18 guidance but remains dependent on declining Consumer activity

The revenue trend observed in Q1 continues in Q2 (-9% to €231.4m), while H1 revenues are also down 9% to €423.2m. The EBITDA margin, on the contrary, is up to 27% vs 20% in Q2 17, while the operating margin reached 11% vs -61% in Q2 17. Finally, the adjusted net result for H1 18 reached €34.3m, up from €0.2m in H1 17.

Companies: TomTom

18 Jul 18

Stronger NWC inflow

We are a bit puzzled about Production’s strong decline in profitability, which doesn’t appear to be explained well to us. We assume unfavourable FX developments and higher energy costs (gas) in Europe had burdened the division’s earnings. Therefore Yara’s Q2 figures clearly did not meet our expectations, but matched or beat at some levels.

Companies: YARA INTERNATIONAL

20 Jul 18

Q1: broadly in line with the expectations

The quarterly numbers are broadly in line with expectations, driven by Asia and strong momentum in Greater China. We see no major changes to our target price at this moment.

Companies: Remy Cointreau

20 Jul 18

Reasonable Q2 results; no major concerns at the moment

Despite a maintenance shutdown, waning price tailwinds, weaker (mining) volumes and cost pressure, Boliden did well to achieve healthy operating profits – although somewhat behind the Street’s estimates. While margin normalisation is inevitable (given the unjustified pricing gains in the past), the operating performance is nevertheless expected to remain healthy – thereby helping sustain Boliden’s best-in-class stakeholder returns and rewards. A dominant exposure to Europe, where prospects are promising, is an added advantage.

Companies: Boliden

10 Aug 17

Executive interview - 4SC

07 Feb 18

Kenmare Resources plc - Update from Mining Indaba

27 May 15

Executive Interview - KTG Energie (German version)

05 Dec 17

Executive interview - Genkyotex

24 Apr 18

Bitesize briefing - NeuroVive Pharmaceutical

30 Nov 17

Executive interview - TxCell

31 Jan 18

Executive interview - Tetragon Financial Management

25 Jul 17

Executive Interview - DeA Capital

02 May 17

Executive Interview - Oryzon

14 Jul 17

Executive interview - Banca IFIS

03 Nov 16

Executive Interview - bet-at-home.com (Deutsch)

30 Jun 17

Executive interview - UMT

07 Jun 18

Executive interview - Thin Film Electronics

15 May 17

Executive Interview – MedServ

27 Sep 17

Executive interview - The Marketing Group

Latest Content

Boliden

Reasonable Q2 results; no major concerns at the moment

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20 Jul 18
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Atlas Copco

Strong quarter but mixed outlook

Atlas Copco reported a strong quarter, including 10% organic growth in orders and 11% organic growth in revenues, coupled with an operating margin of 22.2%. However, although the company expects demand from the Customer segment to remain at a high level, it also added a bit of cautiousness on Semiconductor Equipment which is expected to be somewhat lower in the near term.

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20 Jul 18
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KONE Corporation

H1 18: willing to grow but not necessarily through a combination with Thyssenkrupp

Concerning the growing uncertainty due to the increase of tariffs on Chinese exports to the US from the Trump administration, there are some risks for Kone from 2019 onwards, in our opinion. France, one of top 5 markets, is seeing a positive development in the market. We will reduce our EBIT margin recovery expectation and go for growing revenues in FY19 but a stable EBIT margin compared to FY18. This could trigger a change in recommendation from Reduce to Sell.

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20 Jul 18
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NV Bekaert

Profit warning harms the company's margin expansion story

Bekaert issued a profit warning on its FY18 profit margin which is likely to be substantially lower than expected (20% below market consensus) while the FY18 EBIT should be lower than last year’s. The company cited many reasons including pricing pressure, the slow recovery of Bridon and changes to trade policies. The warning is disturbing and leadd to a lack of visibility.

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20 Jul 18
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Telia Company

Take advantage of the acquisitions at high prices weighing on the stock

A correct Q2 in line with expectations (in particular EBITDA growth due to the satisfactory progress of Telia’s cost-cutting programme of SEK1.1bn). But following the announcement in parallel this week of the acquisition of TDC’s Norwegian business (to be present on the fixed side in Norway) and of Bonnier Broadcasting (to move toward TV content in Scandinavia) for SEK30bn, the stock is down by 6% since the beginning of the week. We believe it’s an opportunity to buy the stock.

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20 Jul 18
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BioMerieux

Q2 performance satisfactory

After a strong start to the year, the Q2 performance was satisfactory. Acceleration in growth in the industrial applications and clinical microbiology businesses were the key highlights of the quarter. However, fierce competition weighed on the immunoassays division and the segment traded in the red during the quarter.

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20 Jul 18
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Hermes International SCA

Forever rosy Hermès

Hermès reported no surprises in Q2. Sales were up by 11.6% at CER in Q2 and by 11.2% in H1. The operating margin should be close to last year’s level.

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20 Jul 18
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Thales

Strong operating performance, as usual, but no guidance upgrade yet

Thales reported very strong H1 results specifically on the bottom-line side. Sales grew in line with expectations but the EBIT jumped by 30%, mainly supported by the Defence & Security division which displayed an almost 12% EBIT margin. The negative point came from the cash flow generation that has been affected by the WC requirements which strongly increased in H1 18. Despite strong results and slightly higher space orders, the group has not raised its FY guidance.

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20 Jul 18
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SSAB

Q2 18: fairly good, but the market had (too?) high expectations

Q2 revenues reached SEK19,263m (+12.6%), EBITDA SEK2,582m (+19.2%), EBIT SEK1,630m (+35.2%) and net profit SEK1,313m (+48%). Net debt at the end of Q1 was SEK11.9bn (vs SEK11.4bn in Q1 and SEK11.6bn by year-end 2017). The outlook for Q3 calls for an unchanged strong demand for heavy plate in North America, with a seasonal slowdown in Europe. As a result, shipments will be up at SSAB Americas and down in Europe, with prices higher in Americas and Special Steels and unchanged in Europe.

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20 Jul 18
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Remy Cointreau

Q1: broadly in line with the expectations

The quarterly numbers are broadly in line with expectations, driven by Asia and strong momentum in Greater China. We see no major changes to our target price at this moment.

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