Rest of EMEA

Rest of EMEA equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content we have for listed companies based in the rest of EMEA.

EMEA Equity Research

Broker research, valuations, and analysis on European stocks

10 Jul 20

Auctus on Friday - 10/07/2020

PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price £0.45: 1Q20 results/Bretaña expected to restart in July – 1Q20 financials are in line with expectations and 1Q20 production had been reported previously. At the end of 1Q20, current trade and other payables had been reduced to ~US$45 mm compared to ~US$55 mm at YE19. Most importantly. PetroTal continues to expect the Bretaña field to be re-opened this month. The contingent liability with Petroperu is estimated at US$25 mm at the current oil price and the company has entered into a financial swap for 0.46 mmbbl of oil with an ICE Brent reference price of US $40.58/bbl to cover the upcoming sale by Petroperu at the Bayovar port. This is a recovery story that we continue to like. It offers a combination of value, production and cash flow growth and reserves upside. We anticipate that the imminent reopening of the field with be an important catalyst to the share price. i3 Energy (I3E LN): Reveals takeover target in Canada | Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Production update | Aker BB (AKERBP NO): 2Q20 update in Norway | Energy (RRE LN): Recommended offer by Viaro Energy | Spirit Energy: Dry hole in Norway | Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Ukraine update | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN): 2Q20 update in Ukraine and Russia | Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): Operating update in Egypt and Vietnam | Sound Energy (SOU LN)C: Terms of Moroccan licence renegotiated | Tethys Oil (TETY SS): June production in Oman | Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Gas sales contract with ENEO in Cameroon terminated EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK ________________________________________ 14/07/2020: Aker BP (AKERBP NO) – 2Q20 results 15/07/2020: Premier Oil (PMO LN) – 1H20 update 13-17/07/2020: GeoPark (GPRK US) – 2Q20 update

Companies: I3E MAHAA JKX PHAR EQNR AKERBP ENI HUR PTAL REP RRE SOU TPL VOG OMV

03 Jul 20

Can a Diagnostics-less Roche be a reality?

With CHF13bn ($14bn) annual sales, Roche is a dominant force in the global diagnostics market. Interestingly, in recent years, most diagnostics majors have witnessed material re-ratings – also a function of increased M&A euphoria. Now, in the backdrop of COVID-19, Roche has also emerged as a prominent player on the testing front. With big pharmas moving away from (low-growth) non-pharma offerings, is it time for Roche to consider unlocking value from Diagnostics?

Companies: Roche Holding

07 Jul 20

Paion - ByFavo – poised for autumn US launch

In a breakthrough achievement for Paion, the FDA has approved ByFavo (remimazolam) for US sale for procedural sedation (PS) taking under 30 minutes – mainly 25m colonoscopy and bronchoscopy procedures. A €15m milestone is due from US partner Cosmo. Cosmo has sublicensed ByFavo to Acacia in the US; launch is indicated in autumn 2020. Paion has operational funds and loan facilities until 2022. Our valuation has been updated to reflect US approval and is now €283m vs €270m previously.

Companies: Paion

02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

19 May 20

DEEP DIVE INTO E&P INDEBTEDNESS

In this note, we analyze the indebtedness of 35 international E&Ps publicly listed in the UK, Canada, Norway, Sweden and the USA. For each company, we look at (1) cash position, (2) level and nature of debt (including covenants), (3) debt service and principal repayment framework and (4) Brent price required from April to YE20 to meet all the obligations and keep cash positions intact. We also estimate YE20 cash if Brent were to average US$20/bbl from April to YE20. While the oil demand and oil price collapse are of unprecedented historical proportions and the opportunities to cut costs much more limited than in 2014, most companies (with a few exceptions) entered the crisis in much better position than six years ago, with stronger balance sheets and often already extended debt maturities. In addition, this time around, many E&Ps have already been deleveraging for 1-2 years and are not caught in the middle of large developments that cannot be halted. The previous crisis also showed that debt providers could relax debt covenants for a certain period as long as interest and principal repayment obligations were met. This implies that as long as operations are not interrupted and counterparties keep paying their bills (Kurdistan), the storm can be weathered by most for a few quarters. With (1) Brent price of about US$50/bbl in 1Q20, (2) reduced capex programmes, (3) material hedging programmes covering a large proportion of FY20 production at higher prices and (4) limited principal repayments in 2020, we find that most companies can meet all their costs and obligations in 2020 at Brent prices below US$40/bbl and often below US$35/bbl) from April until YE20 and keep their cash intact, allowing them to remain solvent at much lower prices for some time. In particular, Maha Energy and SDX Energy are cash neutral at about US$20/bbl. When factoring the divestment of Uganda, Tullow needs only US$9/bbl to maintain its YE20 cash equal to YE19. Canacol Energy, Diversified Gas and Oil, Independent Oil & Gas, Orca Exploration, Serica Energy and Wentworth Resources are gas stories not really exposed to oil prices and Africa Oil has hedged 95% of its FY20 production at over US$65/bbl.

Companies: AKERBP AOI CNE CNE DGOC EGY ENOG ENQ GENL GKP GPRK GTE HUR IOG JSE KOS LUPE MAHAA OKEA ORC.B PEN PHAR PMO PTAL PXT RRE SDX SEPL TETY TGL TLW TXP WRL

08 Jul 20

Continues to do well in uncertain times

Q2 revenues better than expected, NOI in line Still limited COVID-19 effects Credit metrics remain at strong levels, confirmed Baa3 rating No debt maturities in 2020, SEK ~2.8bn in available liquidity

Companies: Kungsleden

08 Jul 20

Not yet!

Following our headline ’Settled!?’ on 25/06/2020, our new headline looks a bit revanchist as we had expected that Bayer ‘just’ wanted to manage expectations by pointing to the fact the mechanism has to be approved by the judge. The judge’s doubts on the planned mechanism for the glyphosate-related cases might sweep current management away. Or the company gets a different name.

Companies: Bayer

07 Nov 19

Solid performance globally

Amadeus IT Group performed well in Distribution and IT Solutions in Q3 19. The group beat the GDS industry and gained market share in air bookings (+0.4pt to 43.5%). In IT Solutions, the core business (airline IT solutions) was solid with strong growth in the number of passengers boarded (+8.1%, o/w +6.1% organically). In addition, the diversification brought double-digit revenue growth excluding TravelClick.

Companies: Amadeus It Group

07 Feb 20

A stock price which relies on the year 2020/21

The Q3 sales released by the group are reassuring about the group’s back catalogue and the current revenues of its flagship FPS Rainbow Six Siege but no more. The current stock price (up by 75% since end- October) clearly relies on the smooth running of the fairly-awaited new AAA games in 2020/21 which could be a great year for Ubisoft. One must remain cautious as a new disappointment on the timing of these games’ release could weigh on the stock.

Companies: Ubisoft Entertainment

03 Mar 20

2019 in line with expectations, uncertain year 2020

Q4 19 was another weak quarter in Distribution with air bookings down 1.5% (+1.3% excluding India). Conversely, Q4 19 was a good quarter in IT Solutions as the core business continued to performed well with an increase in the number of passengers boarded by +8.9% (+6.1% organically). In FY2019, group EBITDA was in line with expectations and the EBITDA margin reached 40.1% of revenue (-0.7pt). Management did not quantify the impact of the Coronavirus on revenue and EBITDA.

Companies: Amadeus It Group

20 Apr 20

Q1 20: it could have been worse

Q1 20 is of course down due to the COVID-19 crisis Despite the lack of guidance, Q2 is set to be worse, notably in SMS However, we like the margin resilience and ongoing cost-cutting programmes The clean balance sheet is a clear asset in these troubled times We will fine-tune our numbers, with little impact on the valuation in our view

Companies: Sandvik

15 May 20

Evotec - Q1/2020 results review

Evotec reported a strong set of Q1/2020 results, with revenues increasing 15% YoY vs. Q1/19 to €119.4m supported by growth in the base business for both the EVT Execute and EVT Innovate segments. Base revenue growth more than offset a lower contribution from milestones, upfront payments, and licenses (€5.4m Q1/2020 vs. €10.1m Q1/2019) with Evotec maintaining a stable adjusted EBITDA of €30m (Q1/2019: €30m). Despite the ongoing global pandemic, all Evotec sites have been able to continue operations during the first quarter, maintaining a capacity at more than 90% of total throughout. Evotec has maintained its 2020 outlook, relayed in April 2020, confirming that the company continues to expect little impact moving forward at this time. We continue to believe that Evotec remains a structural growth story in the mid to long term and maintain the opinion that the company will weather Covid-19 with minimal disruption. We reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and €28 target price.

Companies: Evotec

15 May 20

Tough times ahead

In Q1 20, the decrease of revenue in Distribution (-45.5%) exceeded that in IT Solutions (-0.3%) and the EBITDA margin dropped to 34.2% of revenue (-8.2pts). Air bookings (-47.7%) are at the beginning of the chain, while the number of passengers boarded on the Altéa and New Skies systems (-12%) included the contribution of airlines which had migrated during 2019 and in 2020 and the full effect of the lockdown of economies and the stop of air traffic in March 2020.

Companies: Amadeus It Group

22 May 20

Auctus on Friday

88 Energy (88E LN/AU): Update in Alaska | Echo Energy (ECHO LN): Operation update in Argentina | Subsidies to the oil industry in Argentina | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN): Neptune Energy not acquiring Edison UK and Norway | EnQuest (ENQ LN): 1Q20 update | Equinor (EQNR NO): Dry hole in Norway | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Problem with a well at Lancaster in the UK, FY20 production will be “substantially” lower than expected | Lundin Energy (LUP SS): Reduced FY20 production on guidance of Norwegian government curtailment |SDX Energy (SDX LN): 1Q20 results | Total (FP FP): Not buying Ghana from Occidental Petroleum

Companies: 88E AOI ECHO ENOG ENQ EQNR HUR LUPE SDX TLW

26 May 20

PRI is Ubisoft’s middle name

Ubisoft’s FY19-20 revenue was hit by the bad reception of the supposed-to-be outstanding Ghost Recon Breakpoint. This led to a loss despite lower marketing costs (due to delayed games). Conversely, ‘Player Recurrent Investment’ (PRI) and Mobile gaming experienced solid progress. With 5-AAA games in the FY 20-21 pipeline, a revenue boost is expected from the hugely popular franchises that back these games.

Companies: Ubisoft Entertainment

29 Jan 20

Executive interview - Cantargia

13 May 20

OSE Immunotherapeutics - executive interview

08 Oct 19

Executive interview - RhoVac

07 May 20

bet-at-home - executive interview

30 May 18

Executive interview - Banca Sistema

06 Apr 20

Executive interview - Laboratorios Farmacéuticos ROVI

04 Feb 20

Executive interview - Test

03 Apr 20

Executive interview - Expert System

10 Jan 20

Expected higher margins for Kenmare Resources

17 Mar 20

Executive interview - Basilea Pharmaceutica

06 Dec 18

Executive Interview - Delignit

04 Mar 20

Dialog Semiconductor - CFO Interview

20 Mar 19

Bitesize briefing - UmweltBank

18 Dec 19

Executive interview - Brighter

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – 2G Energy

Latest Content

Shortsighted or too cautious?

We still have not made up our minds and it will be quite challenging to come to a conclusion without additional information. Nevertheless, the preliminary figures guide to a stronger than expected Q2. Even profitability was far better but, without additional details, it is quite difficult to see where the performance stems from. Preliminary figures were marginally above our estimates, but beat consensus at the profitability level.

Covestro

10 Jul 20
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Auctus on Friday - 10/07/2020

I3E MAHAA JKX PHAR EQNR AKERBP ENI HUR PTAL REP RRE SOU TPL VOG OMV

10 Jul 20
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Technicolor - Mapping a way through

Technicolor has negotiated a refinancing with its lenders, to be put to shareholders at an EGM on 20 July. This involves an initial injection of €420m of additional debt, in part to repay a bridge loan expiring at the end of July, to be followed by a €660m debt-to-equity swap. Shareholders will have the chance to participate in this element through a rights issue priced at €2.98. Management has outlined trading scenarios for a base case and a high case through to FY22e, both of which reflect the COVID-19 impact. We have adopted the base case guidance as our model. It has had a particularly harsh impact on the Production Services activities.

Technicolor

10 Jul 20
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Steaming ahead into the summer months

Europris reported record-breaking Q2/20 sales of NOK 2,211m Adjusted Q2/20 EBITDA of NOK 517m was 15% above Factset consensus Estimated loss of NOK 6m booked for ownership in ÖoB in H1/20 Strong financial position of with cash and available credits of NOK 1,315m

EUROPRIS

10 Jul 20
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Continues to perform

Rental income and NOI more or less in line DPS of NOK 2.40 for H1/20 (H1/19: NOK 2.30) Still limited COVID-19 impact and the balance sheet continues to be solid We believe the share will trade up slightly today

ENTRA

10 Jul 20
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Figures largely in line

EBITDA adj for leases and one-offs of USD 86.0m vs ARCe of USD 81.8m Credit metrics boosted by Aker JV, but risk is the same No material news on uncontracted vessels Credit neutral report

OCEAN YIELD

09 Jul 20
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Building a more robust balance sheet

Adj. EBITDA 6% ahead of ARCe, but 5% below Cons. Adj. EPS of USD 0.11 (ARCe: USD 0.11, Cons.: USD 0.09) DPS of USD 0.05 - in line with expectations (dividend yield of 8.4%) We expect the share to trade in line with the market following the report

OCEAN YIELD

09 Jul 20
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Negative EPS, no dividends and EGM coming up

Negative EPS (NOK -0.34) and no dividends in Q2 as expected Busy Q2 - acquisition of Veidekke Eiendom and refinancing activities Negative property value changes of NOK 262m Calling an EGM to request authorisation to raise up to 20% in new equity

NORWEGIAN PROPERTY

09 Jul 20
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No surprises – report in line with expectations

Revenues and NOI in line with ARCe COVID-19 impact continues to be limited Financial position still relatively comfortable No major movements in bond pricing expected on the back of the report

Corem Property Group Ab-A

09 Jul 20
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Molecular biology to the rescue as situation worsens in other businesses

Q2 sales were slightly ahead of expectations led by continued demand for molecular biology product lines used in COVID-19 testing. However, the momentum decelerated compared to the previous quarter as the situation worsened in the microbiology and immunoassays businesses – due to less patient traffic in hospitals and the resulting decline in routine testing. Though the company witnessed an improvement in these businesses during the last few weeks of Q2, returning to pre-COVID levels could take time.

BioMerieux