Rest of EMEA

Rest of EMEA equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content we have for listed companies based in the rest of EMEA.

EMEA Equity Research

Broker research, valuations, and analysis on European stocks

15 Mar 19

Beginning of the accelerating growth trajectory

Korian experienced a strong performance in 2018. The accelerating top-line growth was mainly driven by healthy organic growth and mostly helped by the increased contributions from M&A. The limited margin decline in France has been offset by the good improvement in Germany and synergies achieved from the recently added sites. Thanks to the accelerating external growth, the group has upgraded its 2019 guidance and mid-term outlook.

Companies: Korian

12 Mar 19

Evolva - New focus starts to bear fruit

Evolva’s FY18 results demonstrate that the actions undertaken over the past 18 months are starting to come through into the numbers. Innovation has led to the expansion of ingredients systems with new variants and new markets, and the product pipeline continues to develop. The customer pipeline is progressing, and the maiden royalty payment from EverSweet was received, albeit small. The EPA registration of nootkatone for pest control applications was delayed by the US government shutdown, but is expected in the next couple of months. Our fair value reduces marginally to CHF0.56/share from CHF0.58/share.

Companies: Evolva Holding

13 Mar 19

Good 2018 numbers, but we had expected slightly more

Adidas increased its turnover by 3.3% to €21.9bn (+8% currency-adjusted) while EBIT was up by 14% to €2.37bn and net earnings by 55% to €1.70bn. These numbers are very much in line with consensus expectations while our profit projections were slightly higher. Management proposes a dividend of €3.35 compared to our projected €3.30 vs. the previous year’s €2.60.

Companies: adidas

15 Mar 19

Earnings fell in 2018, but not as sharp as expected

Most car producers have actually increased the dividends for 2018 (FCA, PSA, and VW), whereas Renault maintained its pay-out. The opposite is true for luxury car producers Daimler and BMW. We have doubts that this is an indication of a much more difficult year 2019 for them than for the others.

Companies: Bayerische Motoren Werke

15 Mar 19

Better profit visibility in North America

Despite the tough cost environment in North America (75% of the group’s total operating profit), Autogrill still finished FY18 in line with guidance and the market’s expectations. The mid-term outlook has been maintained, which is a very positive sign, given the market previously anticipated a guidance downgrade due to the challenging macro environment in North America and soft traffic on motorways in Italy.

Companies: Autogrill

18 Jan 19

Q4 performance generating momentum for 2019

Mauna Kea reported Q4/2018 financial results slightly below our expectations, however, with sales of €2.1m (37% YoY), Q4 represents the strongest quarter for Mauna Kea in 2018, thus highlighting the increasing traction for Cellvizio and validating the transition to the new pay-per-use ("PPY") model in the US. Total sales were largely driven by consumables sales of €0.8m, of which €0.3m were associated with PPY (112% YoY). As we expected, FY2018 revenues from Cellvizio straight sales declined (-13% YoY) as a result of the move to the new sales model, but this decline was offset by an increase in consumables sales and services, bringing FY2018 sales to €6.8m (1% YoY), slightly short of our FY2018E estimate of €8.3m. We remind investors that low utilisation of PPY systems still represents a main risk, in our view, but we continue to believe that the new PPY model will translate into sustainable future growth. We maintain and reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and €4.10 target price.

Companies: Mauna Kea Technologies SAS

21 Feb 19

Early adoption of AI in drug design and beyond

The availability of large, diverse datasets (“big data”) in the past 5 - 10 years, coupled with the exponential growth in computing power, increasingly sophisticated algorithms and major advances in experimental techniques for structural biology have firmly propelled artificial intelligence (“AI”) into drug discovery ("DD"). A variety of machine learning (“ML”) tools are now available across all stages of DD and development. This has led to the emergence of many AI-driven tech players looking to capitalise on biopharma’s appetite to incorporate AI into the R&D process, with many partnerships being forged. Through its collaboration with Exscientia, Evotec has been using advanced ML tools to gain operational efficiencies in drug design, reduce the overall time it takes to take a drug candidate from discovery to first in human studies, and increase the chance of success. The first drug candidate may be ready to enter the clinic by YE2019E, when it can potentially be partnered with a biopharma company. Evotec has also recently entered a collaboration with Immuneering to use AI for ligand identification in the field of hereditary metabolic diseases. We reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and €25 target price.

Companies: Evotec

13 Mar 19

FY18 growth spoilt by Q4 results

The fierce competition and the price cap in UK had a negative impact on the Customer Solutions segment, especially in Q4. Renewables capacity continues to grow, pushing up EBIT. The RAB target for 2020 is revised upward.

Companies: E.ON

13 Mar 19

Mensch & Maschine Software - Proprietary software drives profit growth

Mensch und Maschine (M+M) reported strong revenue and profit growth in FY18. Its proprietary software business generated another year of growth and expanded operating margins above 23% for the first time. The VAR business saw a rebound in revenues (+17.5%) and, despite a lower gross margin, managed to grow its operating margin 1.6pp y-o-y. The recent increased investment in SOFiSTiK boosts the company’s construction software offering and adds high-margin proprietary software revenues.

Companies: Mensch und Maschine Software

13 Mar 19

Defence will take the lead!

Key FY18 financial figures Group revenues reached €6,148m, up 4.3%. Automotive revenues were up 4.2% and Defence revenues were up 7.90% Group operating result was €492m, up 23% yoy Earnings after taxes rose to €354m, up +40% yoy EPS rose by 36% yoy to €7.10 Dividend to be raised by 24% from €1.70 to €2.10 Outlook 2019 Group revenues (at constant FX) expected to increase between 4% and 6% while group operating margin should remain at c.8% Automotive revenues expected to be flat (0% to +1%) with a c. 8% operating margin Defence revenues anticipated to rise by between 9% and 11% with the operating margin improving to 8.0-8.5%.

Companies: Rheinmetall

14 Mar 19

Buy the recovery

Leonardo published strong FY18 results that beat the consensus on every metric, fulfilling all its guidance at the same time. The Helicopter segment, which has lately been the most scrutinised segment of the group since it caused the stock to collapse, confirmed its recovery (up 10% yoy) and is expected to grow by 5% in the coming years. Performances have also been strong in the other divisions, allowing the stock to take-off.

Companies: FINMECCANICA

15 Mar 19

No surprise in the FY18 results, still go for GBL

The FY18 results were in line with expectations. The lower NAV is due to the decreased market values of the holding company’s main underlying assets, making an attractive discount to NAV.

Companies: Groupe Bruxelles Lambert

15 Mar 19

The Swiss proxy to GBL

Lower than expected FY18 profit due to the decreased contribution from private equity activities. The increased contribution from Imerys and the strengthened EUR/CHF parity eased the FY18 earnings drop.

Companies: Pargesa Holding

18 Mar 19

Securing the commercial future of NBT in depression

Nexstim is embarking on the next stage of its journey in commercialising its Navigated Brain Therapy (NBT) platform in MDD (major depressive disorder). The recently reported FY18 results confirmed operational progress was much as expected. A sizeable rights issue is planned, with the aim of securing sufficient funding to support the commercial roll-outs of NBT in depression in North America and Europe. It was also announced that the NBS pre-surgical mapping platform may be divested. We have updated our valuation and financial model to reflect the expected changes. We now value the company at €10.5m or €3.23 per share (also €3.23 diluted), against €32.0m, or €10.5/share (also €10.5 diluted) were financial risk removed.

Companies: NEXSTIM OYJ

19 Mar 19

DeA Capital - Platform developments and AUM growth

DeA Capital performed well in FY18 despite turbulent financial markets, developing its alternative asset management platform and growing AUM. Minority interests have been eliminated and net asset value grew. Strong cash flow continues, driven by net distributions from maturing fund investments, sufficient to fund reinvestment and strong distributions. The board is proposing payment of an unchanged €0.12 per share dividend in the current year, a yield of almost 9%. Our adjusted net asset value per share is unchanged at €1.94, c 40% ahead of the share price.

Companies: DeA Capital

06 Mar 19

Executive interview – ROVI

05 Feb 19

Consumer Staples: Our Best Ideas We expect sector rotation into defensives: Buy ABI, Imperial, Reckitt

Premium

28 Feb 19

Executive interview – Cantargia

25 Jan 19

Capital Goods Value trap – 2019 Outlook

Premium

25 Sep 18

Bitesize briefing - Nuevolution

10 Dec 18

Executive interview - paragon

12 Feb 19

Bitesize briefing - Orexo

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – Bet-at-home

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – PBKM

10 Dec 18

Executive Interview – Mutares

07 Dec 18

Executive Interview - Crealogix

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – 2G Energy

06 Dec 18

Executive Interview - Expedeon

06 Dec 18

Executive Interview - Finlab

30 May 18

Executive interview - Banca Sistema

Latest Content

Accor

When the largest Chinese shareholder wants a seat on the board

The chief executive of Accor said ”it would be complicated for Accor if its largest Chinese shareholder Jin Jiang requests a board seat at Accor”.

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19 Mar 19
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Wacker Chemie

Moderate 2019 top-line and profitability

Wacker reported its full-set of 2018 figures, which confirmed the already announced preliminary figures, but broadly missed its own extensive guidance for 2018. More interesting is the given 2019 guidance, which foresees a decline in EBITDA and the respective margin, primarily stemming from Silicones’ more moderate, but still healthy, performance. Management’s view is more cautious and excludes a potential insurance compensation, which we are anticipating.

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19 Mar 19
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Laboratorios Farmaceuticos ROVI

Laboratorios Farmacéuticos ROVI - DORIA Phase III trial hits primary endpoint

Laboratorios Farmacéuticos ROVI (ROVI) has announced top-line data from the pivotal Phase III PRISMA-3 trial evaluating DORIA (ISM risperidone) in schizophrenia. DORIA achieved the primary endpoint of a statistically significant reduction (p<0.0001) in PANSS score at week 12 (both 75mg and 100mg doses once-monthly intra-muscular injection). These data not only validate DORIA but also the ISM technology platform developed by ROVI. ROVI plans to file the US NDA in H219. We forecast a potential launch in 2021 in both the US and EU and peak sales opportunities of US$411m (US and EU) in 2027. DORIA has the potential to be highly value enhancing to ROVI’s long-term profit growth. This is in line with our expectations and we leave our forecasts and valuation unchanged at €1.23bn or €21.9 per share.

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19 Mar 19
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PORSCHE AUTOMOBIL HLDG-PRF

Final 2018 numbers are out

After VW had released surprisingly good net earnings for 2018, Porsche’s numbers were also better than anticipated. This company’s EBIT number (which includes the VW at-equity profit contribution) increased by almost 6% to €3.50bn and net earnings were up by 6% to €3.47bn. As VW will also distribute a higher than previously expected dividend, Porsche raises its own dividend from €1.76 to €2.21.

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19 Mar 19
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Amundi

Amundi can pay the high price...

In the frame of formal talks between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank, DWS might potentially be sold. DWS’s share price was up 10% yesterday on rumours that Allianz is interested in the German asset manager. We believe Amundi will also be interested in the company.

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19 Mar 19
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Iliad

Not very convincing about a return to growth

After its stock suffered a hellish descent throughout 2018 and then a new sharp drop since the beginning of 2019, Iliad has released its 2018 results. As expected, the Q4 numbers are not very convincing about a return to growth. Q4 revenues were down by 0.5% yoy but, most importantly, they declined by 3.1% yoy in France excluding sales of terminals. Remember, they were flat in H1 18 and down by 2% yoy in Q3. So a slight acceleration in the decline, more noticeable on the mobile side (-1.2% yoy excluding sales of terminals while they had grown by 3.4% in H1 and were flat in Q3) than on the fixed side where the trend remains the same compared to the previous quarter (-3.2% yoy vs -2.2% in H1 but -3.8% in Q3). In Italy, since launching its mobile business at the end of May, Iliad has succeeded in winning 2.84m subscribers (of which 635k in June, 1.6m in Q3 and 610k in Q4) to generate eventually €70m in revenues in Q3 (c.€9 per subscriber per month). The annual EBITDA stood at €1.75bn, down by 1.2% yoy (and by 1.5% in H2). Note, however, that in France, excluding the Italian losses, EBITDA was up by 1.7% yoy (but by only 1.2% in H2). The French EBITDA margin was indeed quite resilient at 37.9% in 2018 vs 36.5% in 2017 (and at 38.5% in H2 18). But, with the logical increase in D&A (21.5% of the sales while the real capex represented in 2018 32.5% of the sales in France), operating profit and net profit were both down by c.20% for the whole year.

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19 Mar 19
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DeA Capital

DeA Capital - Platform developments and AUM growth

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19 Mar 19
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Adocia SAS

Adocia - Chinese progress and US lawyers

FY18 accounts show cash of €39.8m after the April 2018 payment of €37.2m ($50m) for the deal with Tonghua Dongbao (THDB) in China. The €11.9m 2018 arbitration award ($11.6m plus $1.6m interest) against Lilly should be received in 2019 after further legal aspects are cleared. A successful single-dose Phase I of BioChaperone (BC) pramlintide insulin could lead to a multiple-dose study in Q219. A European/US Phase III of BC Lispro can be run after a short bridging study and if a partner is found.

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19 Mar 19
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NUEVOLUTION AS

Nuevolution - Small molecules, big ambitions

Positive progress in Nuevolution’s RORγt partnership with Almirall has triggered a €1m milestone payment (SEK10.5m) and we continue to forecast that it will enter the clinic in 2019. FY18 was defined by the progress in the Amgen partnership as it opted in for two oncology programmes, further validating Nuevolution’s Chemetics technology. In Nuevolution’s BET-BD1 programme, a development candidate (NUE20798) has been nominated; data in animal cancer models highlight that it may have synergistic effects in combination with immunotherapies. The FY18 net loss was down year-on-year to SEK99.7m (from SEK117.5m) as a result of lower R&D costs. Net cash of SEK108m (FY17: SEK110.6m) should fund operations into 2020. We value Nuevolution at SEK20.7/share.

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19 Mar 19
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Fraport AG Frankfurt Arprt Svcs Wrldwde

2018 numbers clearly ahead of our expectations

The group’s revenue increased by 19% to €3.48bn. EBITDA and EBIT were up by 13% to €1.13bn and 14% to €731m, respectively, while net earnings increased by 44% to €474m. Finally, the dividend was increased from €1.50 to €2.00. We had projected revenue of €3.32bn, EBITDA, EBIT, and net earnings of €1.09bn, €700m, and €456m, respectively. Simultaneously, we had not assumed any dividend increase.

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