Rest of EMEA

Rest of EMEA equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content we have for listed companies based in the rest of EMEA.

EMEA Equity Research

Broker research, valuations, and analysis on European stocks

10 Aug 17

Running out of cash and equity

The group’s accounts show poor profit numbers, but our real concern is the lack of cash generation and balance sheet quality. 9M order inflow was up by 14% to €32.7bn and revenue by 9% to €32.0bn. EBIT fell by 76% to €205m and net income including the loss from discontinued operations (€1.05bn) turned around from a profit of €168m in 9M16 to a loss of €721m. While the revenue number was just ahead of our expected €31.2bn, the two profit numbers fell short (we had expected €984m and -€530m). If we exclude the loss generated by Steel Americas and still included in the group’s reporting, EBIT was €986m, i.e. it just matched our expectation.

Companies: ThyssenKrupp

10 Aug 17

Management expects “best year ever”

Mondo’s H1 trading update points to revenues up 39% and with a strong contribution from higher-margin library, licensing and merchandise sales, EBIT up 68%. Much of the pipeline is committed moving into the second half, and we believe the group is on track to deliver on its budget for FY17, which management confirms is expected to be Mondo’s best ever year.

Companies: Mondo Tv

10 Aug 17

Focus turns to TXT Next

TXT reported H117 revenue growth of 8.9% y-o-y, with a small decline in Q217 revenues of 1.1%. The company has agreed to sell the TXT Retail business for €85m with completion expected by the end of October. While we continue to include TXT Retail in our forecasts until the deal completes, we provide an illustration of the TXT Group income statement taking into account the disposal.

Companies: TXT e-solutions

16 Aug 17

Automation to drive enhanced returns

Following a visit to paragon’s expanded Delbrück facility and the successful €50m bond issue, we have revisited and upwardly revised our medium-term growth and margin outlook for the group. With 2016 results having met forecasts despite some timing headwinds and future years underpinned by substantial contract wins across the electromobility division, we believe paragon is on the cusp of further accelerated growth. With proceeds from both the October 2016 capital increase and June 2017 bond issue being invested to support this accelerated growth, we raise our fair value to €82.1/share based on our updated DCF scenarios.

Companies: paragon

11 Aug 17

Funding in place for EU roll-out

MagForce has announced a loan of up to €35m from the European Investment Bank (EIB), of which €10m is available immediately. This funding will enable MagForce to roll out its NanoTherm devices across Europe and reach patients who were previously reluctant to travel across the border to Germany for glioblastoma treatment. While we believe the extra funds could accelerate EU device roll-out above our current assumptions, we retain our forecasts and await more details on progress. Our valuation of MagForce remains unchanged at €226m (€8.6/share).

Companies: MagForce

11 Aug 17

Growth momentum is coming back!

Q2`17 results. Revenues excluding the sold Performance Products division increased by 14.1% to €219m. The gross margin improved from 17.3% to 21.6%, EBITDA remained stable at around €14.1m. The EBITDA margin however declined from 7.4% to 6.4%, The EBIT margin increased from 0.6% to 1.9% mainly attributable to lower depreciation. Our EBIT does not include the income from equity investments which is part of the financial results. The income increased from €1.8m to €2.6m. Net losses before discontinued operations increased from €6.8m to €9.5m and, including discontinued operations, from minus €46.8m to minus €3.3m. In the first half year revenues increased by 14.7% to €435.3m and the gross margin improved from 18.9% to 20.7%. The EBIT margin reached 2.4% compared to 1.7% in 2016. Net losses after minorities improved from €46.8m to €3.6m. Over the full year the company will still report a net loss because of positive income from the sale of the Evanston (USA) production site in 2016 and the redemption of the corporate bond (write-off of capitalized refinancing costs and early prepayment penalty).

Companies: SGL Carbon

10 Aug 17

Good Q2 net profit beats expectations

Net income attributable to shareholders increased by 21% to $896m for Q2 17 compared to Q2 16. Gross written premiums were down by 5% to $12.35bn for Q2 17 compared to the same period last year. The net investment result on group investments declined by 18% to $1.47bn for Q2 17, a RoI of 0.7% (not annualised) after 0.8% for Q2 16. Insurance claims were down by 17% to $6.7bn in Q2 17. Pre-tax profit rose by 15% to $1.46bn for Q2 17 compared to the same period last year. The tax ratio was 35.5% for Q2 17 compared to 34.2% for Q2 16. The non-life combined ratio was roughly stable at 98.4% for Q2 17 compared to 98.9% for Q2 16. Shareholders’ equity was unchanged at $30.7bn at the end of June 2017 versus end 2016. RoE was 13.5% for Q2 17 compared to 11.1% for Q2 16. The Swiss Solvency ratio was 227% at 1 January 2017.

Companies: Zurich Insurance Group

16 Aug 17

Challenge taken up

A year ago, we wrote that GBL was about to succeed in its challenge of evolving its portfolio towards greater geographic and sector diversification (see our Latest dated 02/08/2016). The appointments of Ian Gallienne and Gérard Lamarche as Group Managing directors in 2012 have effectively led to a change in GBL’s strategy. Even though the new managers declared that they would keep a patrimonial approach and a long-term view, GBL’s portfolio has significantly evolved over the last five years. As announced, the shift in the portfolio was gradual, while maintaining the principles of a “ friendly ” approach, a main shareholder position (1st or 2nd largest) and a sound financial situation (with a net cash position or a time-limited debt). One of GBL’s strategic priorities remains to “ optimise the balance between growth and yield investments ” with the view to creating value for its shareholders over the long term. “ GBL invests and disinvests depending on the development of the companies and on market opportunities to reach its objective of value creation, while maintaining a solid financial structure. ” To implement the portfolio diversification, GBL strengthened its financial flexibility by the launch of two exchangeable bonds, respectively into Suez Environnement shares in September 2012 and into GDF Suez (ENGIE) shares in January 2013, while continuing to collect the dividends of the holdings for three and four years. The proactive rotation of the portfolio was accelerated through a mix of spot and forward sales of historic assets (Total, ENGIE, Iberdrola, Arkema). The position held in Lafarge (21.1% since 2008) became 9.4% in LafargeHolcim in 2015, after the merger (supported by GBL) of Lafarge with the Swiss company Holcim. The cash issued from the divestments and GBL’s indebtedness position allowed the company to purchase new investments. In June 2013, GBL announced that it had reached an agreement with the Agnelli family’s holding Exor to acquire its interest in the capital of SGS, the world’s leading testing, inspection and certification group – becoming its reference shareholder, next to the von Finck family. Other investments followed, GBL buying a stake in some listed companies and then intending to increase its stakes further, the timing dependent on the share prices. In this way, GBL acquired a first stake in Umicore (in 2014), Ontex and Adidas (2015), Burberry (2016) and Parques Reunidos (2017) and increased its shareholding in these companies during the four-year period.

Companies: Groupe Bruxelles Lambert

11 Aug 17

Q2 results beats consensus despite tough hydro & wind conditions

Q2 results: the adjusted EBITDA came in at €107m (-3% yoy) beating consensus expectations. Adjusted net income was at €27m (vs. €17m 2016). Net debt slightly decreased to € 1.5bn corresponding to a stable leverage ratio. The full year guidance has been confirmed: -EBITDA at c. €430m -net financial debt at €1.45bn; -investments at €140m.

Companies: ERG S.p.A

15 Dec 16

Executive Interview - Paragon

22 May 17

Executive Interview - Reworld Media

25 Jul 17

Executive Interview - DeA Capital

17 Mar 17

Capital Network's David Eaton on Hibernia REIT

30 Jun 17

Executive interview - UMT

07 Mar 17

Executive interview - TiGenix

14 Jul 17

Executive interview - Banca IFIS

13 Dec 16

Executive Interview - RNTS Media

24 May 17

Executive Interview - Reworld Media

25 Jan 16

Executive Interview - GO internet

07 Aug 17

Executive interview - Mondo TV (Italian)

05 Nov 15

finnCap - Connect Group, Initiation of coverage

Premium

15 May 17

Executive Interview – MedServ

27 May 15

Executive Interview - KTG Energie (German version)

07 Aug 17

Executive interview - Mondo TV

Latest Content

Swiss Life Holding

Good H1 17 earnings and premium decrease

Pre-tax profit increased by 5% to CHF676m for H1 17 compared to the same period last year. Net earned premiums were down by 9% to CHF7.5bn for H1 17. Investment income declined by 2% to CHF2.2bn for H1 17 compared to H1 16. Total income was down by 7% to CHF10.7bn for H1 17 compared to H1 16. Insurance benefits and claims declined by 12% to CHF8.0bn for H1 17 compared to H1 16. Total expenses decreased by 8% to CHF9.9bn in the same period. Net profit attributable to common shares was up by 4% to CHF521m for H1 17 compared to H1 16. Shareholders’ equity rose by 2% to CHF14.0bn at end June 2017 compared to the previous year-end. The SST ratio was 161% and the Solvency II ratio was above 200% at January 2017.

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16 Aug 17
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Gaussin

Financial freedom by 2019? (Gaussin)

Financial freedom by 2019? TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 0.53 vs 0.61 -12.2% Note that we changed our recommendation from a Call option recommendation (held for almost two years) to a Buy in June 2017. We believe that the debt restructuring and the strong guidance (namely €18m of revenue and a positive reported net profit for FY17) are positive elements. We believe that the company could become cash break-even from 2019 onwards, which would be a very positive element and a strong catalyst for the share price. Finally, in our view, Gaussin's dependence on capital increases is approaching an end (we forecast only a €5m capital increase in 2018). Gaussin's financial freedom will be significantly rewarded by the market. In anticipation of this, we have switched to a positive recommendation. CHANGE IN EPS2017 : € 0.00 vs 0.02 -76.2% 2018 : € 0.04 vs 0.05 -22.9% Following a Q2 that was disapointing relative to Q1, we have decided to lower our EPS forecasts. We now expect the company to be break-even in 2017 on an adjusted basis. We still expect Gaussin to deliver positive adjusted net income in FY 2018. CHANGE IN NAV€ 0.67 vs 0.71 -6.68% Following the issuance of convertible bonds, we have adapted our assumptions about the future capital increase, namely the conversion of debt into shares. We now expect this to takes place at c.€0.25 per share vs €0.30 previously, explaining all the decrease in our NAV. CHANGE IN DCF€ 0.76 vs 0.83 -8.51% Following the issuance convertible bonds, we have adapted our assumptions about the future capital increase, namely the conversion of debt into shares. We now expect this to takes place at c.€0.25 per share vs €0.30 previously, explaining all the decrease in our DCF.

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16 Aug 17
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paragon

Automation to drive enhanced returns

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16 Aug 17
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PXT TAO CPI TETY TGL ORC/B

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

Parex Resources (PXT CN)6,8; BUY, C$22.00: When opportunity knocks | TAG Oil (TAO CN) 1; HOLD, C$0.75: Fiscal 1Q18 results | Condor Petroleum (CPI CN)8 ; BUY, C$1.50: First production from Turkey now expected in 4Q17e | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)6 ; HOLD, SEK55: Strong operations limited by OPEC/non-OPEC production constraints in Oman | TransGlobe Energy (TGL CN); BUY, C$4.00: 2Q17 cash flow beats expectations and 2017e guidance revised | Orca Exploration (ORC CN) (not covered): 2Q17 results

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16 Aug 17
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Groupe Bruxelles Lambert

Challenge taken up

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16 Aug 17
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Akzo Nobel

Evidence suggests a strategy change

Akzo Nobel announced that the company has reached an agreement with active investor Elliot Advisors and Paul Singer.

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16 Aug 17
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Carlsberg

H1: costs savings are coming through

H1 update: Organic net revenue was up +2% (cons. +3.2%, Q2: 0%) with beer volume -3% (cons. -0.8%) and +4% price/mix. On a reported basis, revenue was up 2% (FX: +2%, net acquisitions -2%). The operating margin was up 200bp to 13% (better than cons. +100bp) and improved across all geographies. OG net revenue by region: Western Europe +2%, Eastern Europe -1% and Asia +6%. OG beer volume by region: Western Europe +0%, Eastern Europe -9% and Asia -1%. The FY guidance is maintained: mid single-digit organic operating profit growth and a further reduction in financial leverage.

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16 Aug 17
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BP/ EXI RKH TETY

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

BP (BP LN) (not covered): Juniper first gas in Trinidad | Exillon Energy (EXI LN) (not covered): July Production in Russia | Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN) (not covered): Abu Sennan Drilling Update in Egypt | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)6; HOLD, SEK60: 2Q17 Results

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15 Aug 17
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K&S

H1 17 uninspiring, 2020 targets abandoned

K+S released H1 17 numbers. Revenues reached €1,827.6m (+2.2%), EBITDA €312.8m (-15.2%), EBIT I €165.9m (-28.9%) and net income €140.5m (-30.3%). Net debt at the end of H1 17 amounted to €3,745.2m vs €3,584m at year-end 2016 and €2,860m a year ago. The group maintained its FY17 targets (EBIT I to reach €260-360m) BUT also indicated that the 2020 target is no longer realistic from today’s standpoint (EBITDA was seen to reach c. €1.6bn by 2020).

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15 Aug 17
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Celyad

Gaining value on stable disease observations

The development of Celyad’s natural killer (NK) receptor-based CAR T-cell therapy (NKR-2/CYAD-01) has taken an important step with the initiation of the SHRINK trial, which moves NK CAR T-cell therapy towards the 90%+ of cancer patients who do not have CD19 or BCMA tumors. CYAD-01 is already being tested in THINK with five solid tumor types plus AML and MM. Promising THINK results have been reported at the lowest dose. Celyad has paid $25m in cash and shares to reduce the royalties payable on potential short-term deals and long-term sales. Our indicative value of Celyad has been revised to $616m or $61 per ADR.

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