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Macroscope: Mueller Relieves A Distraction

Nothing about having a Special Counsel appointed to investigate Donald Trump's team's complicated relationships with Russia makes coming to a solution on complex tax, spending or regulatory issues in Congress particularly easier.

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  • 19 May 17
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Focus Shifts To The Real Economy

The VIX continues to languish close to 10, as fading political risk from elections, the improving global economy, solid corporate profitability and ample central bank stimulus -- even as US interest rates are rising -- all exert downward pressure on market volatility more generally. Economic data have tended to be better than expected which, together with long positioning and crude oil bouncing of its lows, have pushed US yields and those of other developed markets slightly higher during the week.

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  • 12 May 17
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ACA Reform On To The Senate

The Republicans showed they can get a bill through the House of Representatives this week, and that is no small achievement. Not only did the AHCA succeed, the Congress also got the full Continuing Resolution through, until the end of the fiscal year in September. The process also highlights the power of the House Freedom Caucus in controlling the determination of what passes and what does not. The strength of the Freedom Caucus is one of the big messages of this period.

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  • 05 May 17
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Tax Plan Vaguely Clever

A lot of frustration has been vented over the lack of detail in the administration's one-page of guidelines on what they'd like to see come out of tax reform. With so little detail not only is it impossible to estimate the budgetary effects with much accuracy, it's also hard for individuals and businesses to try to estimate what the effect would be on their own individual situations. People have compared the level of detail unfavorably to the far greater amount of information on a typical drugstore receipt or on a box of Crispix cereal. Good stuff.

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  • 28 Apr 17
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Continuing Irresolution

We're on the eve of a period when the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans will either need to deliver significant pro-growth reforms, or risk facing a reversal in the euphoria that greeted their elections. Once the French elections have passed, market pressure will be directly on the administration's economic team to unify the party behind an impressive but workable economic program.

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  • 21 Apr 17
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Gorsuch Luck

The Gorsuch Supreme Court nomination went through today on a party line vote in the Senate, ending for good the sometimes observed convention of Supreme Court nominations being filibustered by the opposition. Harry Reid, McConnell's predecessor in the Senate Majority Leader role, had already taken this step for lower court nominations. Had the Democrats won control last November the same thing would surely have happened to get any Democratic nominee approved. It's a sign of the extent of partisan politicization of judicial nominees that this step is necessary, but you need an odd number of justices, so now it's done.

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  • 07 Apr 17
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MGA - Policy Insights

Girl Interrupted It has been a typical post-Easter holiday week but the trends in place since January have held intact. Th e downward pressure on core European yields has been relentless over the week with 10- and 30-year Bunds falling to all time lows below 10 bp and 50 bp respectively. Indeed yields on the German curve out to the eight- to nineyear area are now in negative territory. While US Treasuries have also been caught up in the rally, helped by weaker data, they are lagging their European counterparts. Th e latter are being boosted both by increased risk that Greece could default on its repayments to the IMF in May and reassurance from Mario Draghi at his ("girl interrupted") press conference that the recentpick up in the Eurozone’s economic outlook does not translate into an early termination of the quantitative easing program.

Commodities - EnergyIndices and MarketsEmerging Markets

  • 17 Apr 15
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