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Focus Shifts To The Real Economy

The VIX continues to languish close to 10, as fading political risk from elections, the improving global economy, solid corporate profitability and ample central bank stimulus -- even as US interest rates are rising -- all exert downward pressure on market volatility more generally. Economic data have tended to be better than expected which, together with long positioning and crude oil bouncing of its lows, have pushed US yields and those of other developed markets slightly higher during the week.

  • 12 May 17
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ACA Reform On To The Senate

The Republicans showed they can get a bill through the House of Representatives this week, and that is no small achievement. Not only did the AHCA succeed, the Congress also got the full Continuing Resolution through, until the end of the fiscal year in September. The process also highlights the power of the House Freedom Caucus in controlling the determination of what passes and what does not. The strength of the Freedom Caucus is one of the big messages of this period.

  • 05 May 17
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Continuing Irresolution

We're on the eve of a period when the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans will either need to deliver significant pro-growth reforms, or risk facing a reversal in the euphoria that greeted their elections. Once the French elections have passed, market pressure will be directly on the administration's economic team to unify the party behind an impressive but workable economic program.

  • 21 Apr 17
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