UK 100 equity research

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UK 100 Equity Research

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"You can't keep a good market down. Despite its long list of woes, ranging from the IMF's growth forecast downgrade, the Senate delaying the Healthcare Bill, the second global Cyber Attack and Google's EU fine, US equities yesterday were firm from the start, recouping losses on Tuesday which saw the Dow Jones suffered its biggest drop in more than a month, to finish with all three-major average closing near the session's highs. They even shrugged off a National Association of Realtors report showing pending home sales in the US unexpectedly decreased for the third consecutive month in May, which is the latest in a long list of data that suggests US economic momentum is finally slipping. The Nasdaq led the way once again, with most giant tech stocks bouncing while its biotech index was also sharply up. In the wider market, Steel was an outstanding sector, driving the NYSE Arca Index up by 3.9% on hopes the White House will soon impose penalties on countries dumping in the US; Financials were also boosted following the Fed's approval of 34 banks' capital plans, which is now expected to release capital for higher dividend payouts; elsewhere Trucking and Housing saw strength, moving higher along with most of the other major sectors, while also Oils benefitted from an EIA reported detailing a sizeable weekly stock decline. Sceptical analysts, however, pointed out that any output decline was probably more the result of Tropical Storm Cindy which knocked out activity in the Gulf of Mexico last week, but has since come back on stream. Treasuries meanwhile continued to see modest weakness, taking the benchmark ten-year yield up by 3 basis points at 2.228%. Asia celebrated the US market performance, putting in convincingly gains across all its regional bourses. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced over 0.9%, building on Wednesday its largest one-day gain in two weeks, with its banks amongst the best performers. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng was powered by demand for HSBC (HSBA.L) and Standard Chartered (STAN.L). The Nikkei gave back some of its early strength due to a firming Yen, while US tech advances boosted the demand for the heavily weighted South Korean KOSPI index. This optimistic mood was not shared during yesterday's European session, however, with Eurozone markets pulled down by a strong Euro, as it headed for its highest level in a year on traders interpreting Tuesday's ECB President's speech as paving the way for a scaling back of monetary stimulus, even if most still consider tapering itself is unlikely to commence before Q1'2018. Picking up the mood from Tuesday's falling overnight markets, the STOXX Europe 600 opened sharply down with techs, utilities and basic materials under most pressure. The surprise US rally, however, rebuilt confidence sufficient for the Index to eventually claw its way back to unchanged, led by recoveries in the FTSE MIB and IBEX 35, although the DAX and CAC-40 still closed with modest losses. The mood in London deteriorated once again as the Bank of England echoed its continental peer by hinting at a reduction in monetary stimulus. Sparking a 1% rise in Sterling by noting "some removal of monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary", the Governor also made it clear that economic conditions need to improve first. With lower oil prices seen taking the sting out of inflation figures, most traders still consider he will continue to do his utmost to defer such a move into 2018. UK macro data due today includes May Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, and M4 Money Supply; traders will also be listening out for feedback from today's BBA Annual Retail Banking Conference, which lists senior speakers from both Government, BoE and FCA. The EU offers June Services Sentiment, Consumer and Industrial Confidence, Economic Sentiment Index and Business Climate data. The US will detail weekly Initial Jobless, Q1 GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures, while the Fed's James Bullard is due to make a speech. UK corporates due to release earnings or trading statements include DS Smith (SMDS.L), Purplebricks (PURP.L), JD Sports (JD..L), Greene King (GNK.L), John Wood (WG..L) and John Laing (JLG.L). Theresa May's meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin today ahead of the G20 summit in Hamburg may also provide some interesting Brexit soundbites, ahead of which London equities are seen simply riding on the back of the overnight markets. The FTSE-100 is seen rising 35-plus points during this morning's early trading."

  • 29 Jun 17
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