Media equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content for companies within the Media sector. Stocks in this sector include Broadcasters, Content & Entertainment Specialists, Multiservice Media Agencies, and Publishers.

Latest Content

H1 ahead, strong Q3 update, upgraded FY20 forecasts

Tremor has announced H1 results ahead of expectations from the AGM trading update on 18 June, with revenue of $136.5m (previous range $131-135m) and EBITDA of $1.8m (previous range -$3m to -$6m). This reflects that since the trading update, Tremor has capitalised upon a rebound in advertising spend through the success of initiatives it launched in 2019, and the successful integration of Unruly, which is attracting new clients to Tremor’s platform and enabling the cross-selling of Tremor’s solutions into Unruly’s tier 1 client base. This has driven Tremor’s expected Q3 revenue to $97.5-103.5m ($66m in Q2), with Q3 adjusted EBITDA of c$11m (H1 $1.8m), and c$49m of Q3 revenue from key initiatives from $25m in Q2. This strong momentum leads us to upgrade our FY20 revenue by +9% to $330m from $304m, and upgrade our FY20 EBITDA to $25.0m from $15.9m. As visibility has also improved for FY21, we retire the previous FY21 forecasts that were our FY20 forecasts from before COVID-19 ($424m revenue and $75m EBITDA), and our new FY21 forecasts of $420m of revenue and $55m of EBITDA reflect the new gross margin mix of Tremor’s new initiatives with less fully-managed services. These forecasts demonstrate FY21 organic revenue growth of +27% and +120% at EBITDA, and as we explain in more depth from p9, this reflects Tremor’s differentiated platform capitalising on the growth in Connected TV (CTV) and digital video advertising. Overall, this means Tremor looks substantially undervalued on 9x FY20 EV/EBITDA or 4x NTM, and a NTM EFCF yield of 6% with FY20 net cash of $71m; vs peers on 15-17x EV/EBITDA with NTM EBITDA growth of 11-40% and EFCF yields of 1-4%.

Tremor International Ltd.

  • 22 Sep 20
  • -
FY 20 final results – Putting the best foot forward

These were impressive FY 20 results that came in at the top end of guidance given back in March. The Data & Information core has proven resilient whilst the swift digital transition with Training and Networking has mitigated the worst revenue impacts from lockdown. Underlying cash generation was healthy, and management have been able to materially de-risk the balance sheet without needing to raise dilutive, new equity capital. In this note, we are re-initiating coverage will full estimates published for FY 21 and beyond. We also discuss the revenue scenarios outlined by the company at the FY 20 results announcement and what these imply in terms of earnings outcomes. Both of these scenarios hinge on the key swing factor for FY 21; namely whether face to face events can resume in time for Wilmington’s H2. Our estimates effectively represent a middle ground between these two outcomes. In our eyes, the current valuation is difficult to justify on fundamentals, nor on a comparative basis. Although we do not know the full current year outcome for the rest of the peer group, we would be surprised if many do better than Wilmington and yet the valuation gap has widened. Looking at the components within the group, the argument can be made that Risk & Compliance alone could be worth more than the current group market capitalisation. This suggests that investors are being given a free option on the c.£70m of revenue and £6m of EBIT (£80m / £13m pre-Covid) that sit outside Risk & Compliance.

Wilmington plc

  • 21 Sep 20
  • -