Most viewed research
Making Mobiles Better
17 Jan 17
Mobile phones are increasingly the key connection for the modern world. This means that the performance of mobile phones, and their networks, is going to become more critical for all the apps and businesses that rely on them. New technologies such as VR, AR, and AV will need better, more reliable connections to really move into the mainstream. In this thematic piece we attempt to identify some of the most important issues facing mobile phone networks and their users, and start to identify solutions and enablers that will solve these problems and create value by doing so.
N+1 Singer - N1S Trend spotting - Strategy update
08 Mar 17
In this new product we present some strategy theme updates arising out of our latest analysis of macro trends and economic data and our innovative Quant work. We also look at upcoming events and suggest topping up on some of our Best Ideas for 2017.
M&A coming to a company near you?
16 Mar 17
Markets have retained their relative strength over the last fortnight. We have seen a mixed reaction to the Budget last week, the passing of the Brexit Bill earlier in the week and the first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the US yesterday. Against this backdrop, we have seen some notable M&A activity across a range of sectors which may move down the market capitalisation scale. We now face an extended period of heightened speculation but “no running commentary” regarding Brexit in the UK after Article 50 is triggered at the end of the month.
Panmure Morning Note 16-03-2017
16 Mar 17
OneSavings bank’s FY2016 underlying PBT of £137.0m (up 29% YoY) is 6% ahead of consensus (and 5% ahead of our forecast of £135.1m) with good underlying trends across the board. Customer loans grew by 16% YoY to £5.9bn, with NIM at 3.14% being better than PG forecast of 3.1%. Loan origination was up 28% to £2.3bn, with both BTL and Residential mortgage volumes remaining robust, up 27% and 14% respectively. Credit quality remained good with cost of risk of 16bp, down 7bp YoY. Cost income ratio remained very low at 27% helping the group to achieve an underlying RoTE of 29%, ahead of our forecast of 28.8%. Balance sheet was strong with TNAV increasing by 33% YoY to 161p and CET1 ratio was 13.3% (Cf. PG at 13.0%), with DPS of 10.5p being ahead of consensus forecasts of 10.1p. Overall these are a solid set of results but largely reflected in the 22% YTD share price rally. OSB trades on reported P/TBV of 2.6 with underlying RoTE of 29%.
UK CHALLENGER BANKS
16 Feb 17
We initiate coverage of the Challenger banks with BUY recommendations on Aldermore, OneSavings Bank, Shawbrook and Virgin Money, and SELL ratings on CYBG and Metro Bank. We particularly like the specialist lenders as they have avoided direct competition with large UK banks and offer high growth and returns at attractive valuations (helped by the fallout from the Brexit vote) of 2017E PE and P/TBV of 7.5 and 1.6 for RoTE of 23% compared to large UK banks on 18.4 and 0.9 for RoTE of 8%. Among the true challengers we prefer Virgin Money for its 2017E RoTE of 14% for P/BV of 1.1 but are not keen on CYBG as it reminds us of the low growth and returns and continual restructuring costs recently seen at large UK banks, nor Metro Bank for its exorbitant 2017E P/TBV of 3.9 for no profits. Our Top Pick is Shawbrook as it is the most specialised of the lenders.
10 for 17
09 Jan 17
As always at the start of a year, there are significant uncertainties about the year ahead but I think in 2017, the level of uncertainly has decisively moved up a gear. In fact, a leading economist at the LSE, Ethan Ilzetzki, was recently quoted as saying “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history”. Wow.
Videos and Podcasts
N+1 Singer - IFG Group - Top line growth but earnings pressures remain
23 Mar 17
FY16 EPS is 8% below expectations. Revenue grew by 10% yoy to £78.5m with £10.0m adj. EBIT and 7.6p adj. EPS. The board has declared a 3.35p final dividend, bringing the total payout to 4.95p (+11% yoy). There is significant balance sheet capacity with £28.2m net cash. There is continued growth in AuA and revenues but a number of headwinds to profit growth remain from income pressures and cost investment. This is reflected in the valuation with the shares trading on 8x FY17e EV/EBITDA.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
22 Mar 17
Touchstone Exploration (TXP CN)6; BUY, C$0.40: 2017 capital program and reduced letter or credit associated with work commitment | IGas Energy (IGAS LN) (not covered): Tinker Lane Planning Application Approved | RockRose Energy (RRE LN) (not covered): Update on acquisitions in the UK
Expanding asset management platform
20 Mar 17
FY16 saw good growth in its alternative AUM, positive performance from fund investments, offsetting weakness at Migros, the retailer quoted in Turkey, and a robust holding company net financial position after €31.6m in dividends (€0.12 per share), a level that DeA will maintain in 2017. The shares continue to trade at a wide discount to both NAV and our assessment of fair value. Returning momentum to asset management and a diverse investment portfolio have the potential to create further value, while the prospect of cash inflows as private equity fund investments mature provides a measure of protection against any rise in market volatility.
Something innovative in the state of Denmark
20 Mar 17
VolitionRx recently announced the initiation of a two-phase logistical study for its Nu.Q™ Triage test for colorectal cancer (CRC) in Denmark, which may enable the inclusion of the test in the country’s national screening program in conjunction with the standard fecal immunochemical test (FIT). The study is expected to take six months to complete with the potential for a decision by the national screening committee by the end of the year. If included, the Nu.Q™ Triage test would be the first blood-based cancer diagnostic as part of a national screening program for CRC.
Proposed placing to raise £10m
17 Mar 17
PCF have this morning announced a proposed placing to raise £10m through the issuance of new shares which is expected to be at c25p. The Company’s majority Shareholder, Bermuda Commercial Bank has indicated that it intends to subscribe for shares in the placing, along with certain directors of the company. The raising will be used to maintain an adequate level of regulatory capital and liquidity for the group as it transitions into being a bank. The net proceeds will also provide adequate capital for its growth plans over the medium term. The placing is conducted via an accelerated book build by Panmure Gordon and Stockdale Securities with books expected to close today, 17 March 2017. This announcement is in line with our expectations of the additional capital required for PCF to operate as a bank and maintain CET1 ratio of >15% as it grows its loan book from c£120m to £350m over the next three years.