In the current viral pandemic, it is worth recalling that brain cancers will arise during and after the epidemic. The core business case for Kazia remains strong as it is developing the only brain penetrating PI3K inhibitor agent in trials to treat glioblastoma. In the current Phase II, the 21-patient expansion cohort was fully recruited in February. No hospitalisation is needed to continue with this study; it is oral dosing. The potentially pivotal Phase III using the AGILE trial network is on track for an H220 start. H120 results showed cash of A$6.4m. Our indicative value remains A$137m.

Novogen

• 31 Mar 20
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Given high expectations and market backdrop, disappointing AIPAC Phase IIb metastatic breast cancer data has hit the stock hard. While the lack of a statistically significant improvement in overall progression free survival ("PFS") compared to chemotherapy alone is a substantial set back, the stock decline would suggest that Eftilagimod alpha ("efti") is dead; not so in our view. Although the current data will not support the hoped for regulatory approval in mBC, patient subgroup responses and other signals should encourage continued development in mBC and mould pivotal Phase 3 design. The data also does not have negative read-over into other programmes such as ICI combinations. Recent encouraging data from the TACTI-002 study in nonsmall cell lung cancer ("NSCLC") and first positive signals in head and neck suggest the drug may extend the benefits of immune checkpoint inhibitors ("ICI"). While the company will need to refinance either through partnering or the capital markets, we see significant unrecognised residual value in the stock, including the licensed programs with GSK and Novartis. We recommend the stock OUTPERFORM at a reduced TP of AUD0.32 (from AUD0.80).

Immutep

• 26 Mar 20
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