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Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- United Oil & Gas, Falcon Oil & Gas, 88 Energy, NEO Energy, i3 Energy, Kosmos Energy, Hess Corporation, Gran Tierra Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, Jadestone Energy, Neptune Energy, Wintershall Dea, Occidental Petroleum Corpora

Oil fell the most since November with a stronger dollar and concerns surrounding inflation weighing on crude's best start to the year on record. Futures in New York declined 3.2% on Friday, with a rising dollar reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. Yet, the US crude benchmark still managed to post a nearly 18% gain this month as inventories worldwide tighten and pockets of demand return. Domestic crude production dropped in 2020 for the first time in four years, according to the US government. Crude prices have notched the largest year-to-date gain than in any year prior for the same time period, in part due to OPEC+ production curbs helping to deplete global stockpiles. Plus, the unprecedented cold blast that recently halted millions of barrels of US output means oil markets are about 100,000 barrels a day tighter than previously thought, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Supply scarcity may worsen in the coming months as North Sea fields undergo major maintenance. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will meet next week to decide on output levels. While Russia has signalled it favours a further easing of production cuts, the country's oil output dipped below its OPEC+ target this month, meaning it failed to take full advantage of the more generous quota it was afforded after January's OPEC+ meeting. Prices:  West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell $2.03 to settle at $61.50 a barrel.  The US crude benchmark rose 3.8% this week.  Brent for April settlement, which expires on Friday, declined 75 cents to end the session at $66.13 a barrel.  The contract gained 5.1% this week.  The more actively traded May contract declined $1.69 to settle at $64.42 a barrel. Soaring bond yields on Thursday were the latest sign that accelerating inflation could trigger a pullback in monetary policy support that has helped fuel gains in risky assets during the pandemic. While global bonds have since stabilised, a less accommodative approach to monetary policy could have ripple effects across commodity markets.


  • 01 Mar 21
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Vaalco Energy (LSE: EGY): Completing Gabonese acquisition

• Vaalco has now completed the acquisition of Sasol’s 27.8% working interest in the Etame Marin block offshore Gabon, increasing the Vaalco’s total working interest to 58.8%. • The company paid US$29.6 million in cash to Sasol, taking into account the agreed upon transaction price of US$44 mm, the deposit already paid and post-effective date adjustments, with a future contingent payment of up to US$5 mm. • The final payment is marginally lower than we anticipated (US$35 mm as of mid-January) and reflects the higher oil price so far in 1Q21. • The shares continue to offer a combination of value, low risk upside and very material newsflow associated with the farm out of assets in EG that would add a new dimension to the story. Looking at the upside The overall upside at Etame Marin comprises 12.6 mmbbl WI contingent resources mostly associated with licence extension beyond 2028 and future drilling plus 30 mmbl WI prospective resources mostly associated with unswept areas. Contingent plus prospective resources represent 2x the current 2P reserves and carry a very high probability of success (55 75%). Low risk infill drilling of contingent resources could add ~£0.48 per share (~25% of share price) with an overall unrisked value for the upside at the producing asset of £4.80 per share (~2.4x the current share price). The crude sweetening project could add ~£0.90 per share. Finalizing the EG farm out transaction could start unlocking a further £4.20 of unrisked value. Still a value name even after the share price increase Our 2P NAV for Vaalco is £2.84 per share, representing 40% upside to the current share price. Our ReNAV of £4.10 per share only includes (1) Etame Marin’s contingent resources, (2) one Gamba appraisal well and (3) the risked value of the EG assets. Our ReNAV represents >100% upside to the current share price.

VAALCO Energy, Inc.

  • 26 Feb 21
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AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN)C; Target price of £4.20: Completing the acquisition of stake in Etame – Vaalco has now completed the acquisition of Sasol 27.8% working interest in the Etame Marin block offshore Gabon, increasing the Vaalco’s total working interest to 58.8%. The company paid US$29.6 million in cash to Sasol, taking into account the agreed upon transaction price of US$44 mm, the deposit already paid and post-effective date adjustments, with a future contingent payment of up to US$5 mm. The final payment is marginally lower than we anticipated and probably reflects the high oil price in January so far in 1Q21. Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK30 per share: Confirming guidance and high impact newsflow – The 4Q financial headlines did not include any surprises with Tunisia production increasing to 4,500 bbl/d (gross). FY21 production guidance has been set at >9 mboe/d (we assume 9.5 mboe/d) with US$42 mm capex (including US$6 mm for Tunisia, US$5 mm for South Africa exploration, US$10 mm for EG and the balance for Gabon) plus US$5 mm for the Salloum well in Tunisia. The high impact Hibiscus exploration well in Gabon is expected to be spudded in April 2021 with results in May. Our unrisked NAV for this well is >NOK12 per share (>50% of current share price). There are only 1-2 liftings per year in EG, each one is very large (0.95 mmbbl per lifting). One of these liftings is taking place in 1Q21 with production from July 2020 allocated to Panoro but sold at the currently high price. The next one will be in 4Q21 or 1Q22. PetroTal (PTAL LN)C; Target price up from £0.50 to £0.60 per share on increased reserves - YE20 1P, 2P and 3P reserves were respectively 22.3 mmbbl (+4% vs YE19), 51.0 mmbbl (+7%) and 106.1 mmbbl (+25%). The YE20 estimates are net of 2.1 mmbbl production in 2020, implying a 5.4 mmbbl upwards revision for the 2P reserves compared to previous estimates. The 1P and 2P reserves increase reflect a reserves replacement ratio of respectively 38% and 157%. As we anticipated, the reserves increase is the result of higher recovery factor assumptions, reflecting the performance of the wells to date. The new 2P and 3P cases assume recovery factors of respectively 15% (+1.4%) and 17% (+2.4%). Our new 2P NAV is £0.37 per share (£0.34 per share previously), which represents >2x the current share price. Our new ReNAV incorporating the increase in reserves is £0.59 per share (£0.52 per share previously). We have set our new target price at this level. We are increasing our target price from £0.50 to £0.60 per share. IN OTHER NEWS ________________________________________ AMERICAS 88 Energy (88E LN/U): Prospective resources update in Alaska – The total prospective resources associated with project Peregrine are estimated at 1.6 bn boe. Echo Energy (ECHO LN): Operational update in Argentina – FY20 net production from Santa Cruz Sur was 1,966 boe/d. The company will now upgrade and debottleneck the existing liquids pipelines to bring the remaining volumes previously shut in in 2Q20 back online and restore net liquid production of 336 - 420 bbl/d. Exxon Mobil (XOM US): Selling North sea assets – Exxon Mobil is selling most of its non-operated upstream assets in the U.K. central and northern North Sea to NEO Energy for >US$ 1bn. There may be additional contingent considerations of ~ US$300 mm. The acquisition adds ~ 40,000 boe/d production and > 140 mm boe of reserves. The portfolio to be acquired consists of 21 assets, including 14 fields. This includes 50% WI in the Gannett cluster, 4.38% in Elgin-Franklin and 44%-72% in the Shearwater area. Galp: 4Q20 results – 4Q20 production was 122.8 mboe/d including 109.8 mboe/d in Brazil and 13.1 mbbl/d in Angola. The company held 2P reserves of 700 mmboe at YE20 (-6% versus YE19) while YE20 2C resources were 1.7 bn boe. FY21 production guidance has been set at 125-135 mboe/d. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE CN/LN): FY20 results and outlook – FY20 production in Colombia was 22,264 bbl/d. FY21 production guidance has been set at 28-30 mbbl/d with US$130-150 mm capex. Gran Tierra collected total VAT and income tax receivables of US$114 mm during 2020. At YE20, Gran Tierra held US$34.4 mm in cash and working capital surplus, a US$190 mm revolving credit facility and US$600 mm of senior notes. i3 Energy (I3E LN): Operational update in Canada – November 2020 to January 2021 averaged 9,150 boe/d (41% liquids). The horizontal Falher formation well located on the Noel acreage in Northeast British Columbia was tested at 4,200 mcf/d on a 1/4” choke. The well is expected to be brought on production at ~500 boe/d during the 2Q21. Currently there are no booked reserves attributed to this well, or to any potential offsetting development locations. Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): 4Q20 results – 4Q20 production in Brazil was 2,738 boe/d. Maha held US$6.7 mm in cash at YE20. President Energy (PPC CN): Trading update and outlook in Argentina – President’s FY20 net production was >2,700 boe/d with ~3,300 boe/d production in December. YE20 net debt was US$16 mm. FY21 production guidance has been set at 3,600-4,000 boe/d, with capex of ~ US$18 mm. ASIA PACIFIC Coro Energy (CORO LN): Acquisition of renewable Energy business in Asia and equity raise – Coro Energy is acquiring Global Energy Partnership Limited (GEPL) for £0.6 mm. GEPL is an originator and developer of renewable energy projects in South East Asia. Coro has also raised £4.5 mm mm of new equity priced at 0.4p per share. Additional proceeds of up to £0.5 mm are to be raised pursuant to the Open Offer. Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): FY21 outlook – FY21 production in Australia and New Zealand is expected to be 11.5-13.5 mbbl/d with US$85-95 mm capex. PTT EP/Petronas: Gas discovery offshore Malaysia – The Dokong-1 wildcat exploration well in Block SK417 offshore Sarawak encountered a gas column measuring > 80 metres in the Middle to Late Miocene Cycle VI-VII reservoirs. EUROPE ENI (ENI IM): Strategy update – Production is expected to grow at an average of around 4% per year over the next four years. Upstream capex will amount to around €4.5 bn per year on average. ~55% of the 1P reserves will be gas in 2024, vs. 50% today. Unlevered IRR for renewable projects is in the range of 6-9% while the IRR of upstream projects in execution is 18%. EnQuest (ENQ LN): Farming down UK asset – EnQuest is selling 85% WI in the Eagle discovery to Anasuria Hibiscus in return for a full carry of all costs from completion of the transaction through to first oil. Wintershall: 4Q20 results – 4Q20 production was 654 mboe/d (FY20 production of 623 mboe/d above FY20 guidance of 610-615 boe/d). YE20 net debt was EUR5.5 bn. At YE20, Wintershall held 2P reserves of 3.6 bn boe and 2C resources of 2.1 bn boe. FY21 production guidance has been set at 620-640 mboe/d with capex of EUR1.0-1.1 bn, including EUR200-250 mm for exploration. FORMER SOVIET UNION Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Appraisal well results in Ukraine – The SV-25 appraisal produced at a stabilised flow rate of approximately 1.9 mmcf/d of gas and 109 bbl/d of condensate from the B-22 formation only. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): 4Q20 results – 4Q20 production was 60.2 mboe/d, including 24.3 mbbl/d in Ghana, 25.5 mbbl/d in the US GoM and 10.5 mbbl/d in EG. Kosmos exited 2020 with net debt of ~US$2 bn and available liquidity of ~US$570 mm. First gas at the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project in Mauritania and Senegal continues to be expected in 1H23. The sale of the FPSO in 2Q21 is expected to reduce Kosmos' cash requirements to first gas by ~ US$320 mm. FY21 production guidance has been set at 53-57 mboe/d. Kosmos expects to spend ~US$225 to $275 mm in 2021, excluding Mauritania and Senegal. In Mauritania and Senegal, FY21 capex capital expenditure for Kosmos' WI is expected to ~US$350 mm. At YE20, Kosmos held 2P reserves of 480 mmbbl. Lekoil (LEK LN): Indicative offer from Lukoil – Lekoil has received a letter from Optimum, the Operator of the OPL 310 Licence, to terminate the Cost and Revenue Sharing Agreement for OPL 310. Lekoil believes that this letter is not valid. Orca Energy (ORC.A/B CN): Increasing dividends – Orca is increasing its quarterly dividends from C$0.08 to C$0.10 per share. Tullow Oil (TLW LN): RBL redetermination - Tullow and its technical banks have agreed a new debt capacity amount under the RBL facility of ~US$1.7 bn (down from US$1.8 bn at the end of September); this remains subject to formal approval by a majority of lending banks. Based on the new debt capacity amount, Tullow will have liquidity headroom of free cash and available debt facilities of ~US$0.9 bn. EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK ________________________________________ 01/03/2021: Seplat Petroleum (SEPL LN) – 4Q20 results 04/03/2021: Aker BP (AKERBP NO) – 4Q20 results 04/03/2021: Frontera Energy (FEC CN) – 4Q20 results


  • 26 Feb 21
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