Trinity Delta view: The potential for long-term value creation in both Avacta divisions is highlighted by: (1) clinical momentum in Therapeutics as lead pre|CISION asset AVA6000 approaches key data read out and initiation of the first potentially registrational trial; and (2) by the commercial momentum in the maturing Diagnostics business as it advances towards self-sustainability. Avacta’s near- and medium-term Therapeutics prospects are underpinned by the pre|CISION platform, with AVA6000 data helping to validate the platform’s tumour targeting potential and providing the blueprint for a pipeline of related products, such as AVA3996. Accelerated clinical development for AVA6000 could mean approval of the first pre|CISION targeted chemotherapy towards end-2026. Our current Avacta valuation is £641m (equivalent to 228p per share).

Avacta Group PLC Avacta Group PLC

• 28 Sep 23
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Trinity Delta view: Although a small patient population, these highly impressive data from the SCOPE study effectively demonstrate the concept of using the SCIB vaccine in combination with CPIs. The strength of the results mean the second stage of the study, treating a further 27 patients (bringing the total to 43), has a 90% probability of success. In parallel, a new patient cohort will examine the same CPI doublet in combination with iSCIB1+, which offers broader patient applicability and greater potency. Data from these is expected during H124 and, subject to funding, will guide a pivotal Phase II/III registration programme. The Phase II part of this study should take 18 months and the power of these results suggest industry interest will be significant. The ImmunoBody therapeutic vaccine is one of Scancell’s four platforms, with the Moditope vaccine expected to deliver top-line Modi-1 CPI combination results during 2024 and the antibody platforms, GlyMab (anti-glycan mAbs) and AvidiMab, likely to see out-licencing deals too. Our Scancell rNPV valuation is £300.1m, or 36.7p/share.

Scancell Holdings Plc Scancell Holdings Plc

• 19 Sep 23
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Trinity Delta view: Avacta’s acquisition of Coris is another step on the pathway to create a full spectrum Diagnostics business that has sufficient product mass and geographic reach to become self-sustaining, both in terms of profitability and new application development. This second deal, following on the heels of Launch Diagnostics in October 2022, provides further momentum to the ‘buy and build’ strategy. While progress in Avacta’s Therapeutics business means it remains in the spotlight, we continue to believe that the less high-profile developments within the Diagnostics division should not be overlooked, and have the potential to create a uniquely positioned Diagnostics business. In terms of forecasts and valuation, at this stage, we view this latest acquisition as a relatively minor factor and will make the necessary adjustments as part of a regular review. Hence, we maintain our current Avacta valuation of £641m (equivalent to 228p per share).

Avacta Group PLC Avacta Group PLC

• 01 Jun 23
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Trinity Delta view: FY22 results reveal the financial, operational, and strategic progress made across both Avacta’s Therapeutics and Diagnostics divisions. The pre|CISION platform underpins the near- and medium-term prospects of its Therapeutics business, with emerging data from lead asset AVA6000 effectively validating the pre|CISION platform’s tumour targeting potential and providing the blueprint for an extensive pipeline of related products. AVA3996, the second pre|CISION asset, could enter the clinic within 12 months. The Diagnostics M&A-led growth strategy, seeded with the Launch Diagnostics acquisition, and complemented by internal capabilities and the proprietary Affimer platform, should create a self-sustaining Diagnostics business. Our current Avacta valuation is £587m, equivalent to 221p per share.

Avacta Group PLC Avacta Group PLC

• 25 Apr 23
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Trinity Delta view: The pre|CISION platform underpins the near- and medium-term prospects of Avacta’s Therapeutics division, and the progress of the lead programme AVA6000 effectively acts as validation of the pre|CISION platform’s tumour targeting potential. Biopsy results demonstrate a materially higher doxorubicin tumour localised concentration than in equivalent blood levels, while the fourth dosage cohort results again demonstrate lower toxicities and side-effects than would have been predicted. Although the addition of higher dose cohorts extends the results of the Phase Ia element of the trial into H123, the delay should be viewed as a positive. Successful proof-of-concept should provide the blueprint for an extensive pipeline of related products. Further detail may be shared at Avacta’s upcoming Therapeutics Division Science Day (February 23). AVA6000 is the largest single element of our rNPV model, £61.6m (equivalent to 23.2p a share), of our current Avacta valuation of £587m (or to 221p per share).

Avacta Group PLC Avacta Group PLC

• 17 Jan 23
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Trinity Delta view: The acquisition of Launch Diagnostics, at an undemanding 1.35x sales multiple (based on an 80% discount to COVID revenues), is the first step in Avacta’s M&A-led growth strategy for its Diagnostics Division. Launch Diagnostics will provide Avacta with a commercial infrastructure in the UK and some EU markets, to which complementary products could be added either organically through in-house development or sought externally. The latter potentially provides the opportunity for Avacta to leverage its internal expertise and platform technologies to optimise performance and economics. The proposed up to £64m gross financing would provide the balance sheet flexibility to explore such opportunities. As usual, we suspend our valuation and forecasts until deal completion.

Avacta Group PLC Avacta Group PLC

• 18 Oct 22
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