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Allergy Therapeutics Plc
Strong performances against strategic goals

Allergy Therapeutics delivered a solid 6% revenue growth for FY20 to £78.2m, from £73.7m, despite COVID-19 impacts taking a 2% toll. The well-established European commercial platform produced operating profit before R&D of £14.2m, from £11.3m, with R&D spend of £9.0m, from £13.2m. Pollinex Quattro Grass is set to start a pilot Phase III study before initiating full registration trials. The promising VLP-based peanut vaccine reported highly encouraging preclinical data which, if maintained, could be transformational for future prospects. The fruits of the development portfolio are expected to enable the market entry into the commercially attractive US. Cash resources of £37.0m are ample to fund near-term requirements. We initiate coverage with a £325m (51p a share) valuation.

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  • 23 Sep 20
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Hutchison China MediTech Ltd.
ESMO 2020: SANET-p delivers further positive suru data

Data from China Phase III SANET-p study of surufatinib in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (pNET) was presented at the European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) 2020 virtual meeting. SANET-p was terminated early (January 2020) having already met its progression-free survival (PFS) primary endpoint at the planned interim analysis. At ESMO this was revealed to be an investigator assessed PFS of 10.9 months for surufatinib vs 3.7 months for placebo (hazard ratio = 0.49, p=0.0011). The China NDA for pNET, surufatinib’s second indication, has been accepted for review with a 2021 approval decision anticipated. First China approval, in extra-pancreatic NET (epNET), is expected this year. Surufatinib will be Hutchison China MediTech’s (Chi-Med’s) first unpartnered oncology drug launch in China, and likely also in the US as NDA filing should start by end-2020. Our valuation is £5.87/share or $38.17/ADS.

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  • 22 Sep 20
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Maxcyte
In the vanguard of next-generation cell and gene therapies

MaxCyte’s H120 results reflect financial and operational advances made so far this year. Revenues are up an impressive 30% on H119, capitalising on momentum from 2019 despite challenges posed by COVID-19. The pivotal role of MaxCyte’s ExPERT flow electroporation platform in enabling next-generation cell and gene therapies is becoming more widely recognised, with major licence deals with both leading cell therapy players and cutting-edge start-ups. These deals, representing over $800m in potential pre-commercialisation milestones, should transform MaxCyte’s mediumand longer-term revenues as the underlying assets advance through the clinic. Plans for CARMA Cell Therapies to be self-financing by 2021 remain on track, and Phase I completion of enrolment and dosing from lead asset MCY-M11 is expected in 2020. Progress within MaxCyte and at partners lifts our valuation to £310m (402p/share).

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  • 21 Sep 20
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Futura Medical Plc
MED3000 on course for OTC approval in Europe and US

Futura Medical’s H120 results confirm progress is maintained as expected. The key developments with MED3000, its novel treatment for erectile dysfunction (ED), suggest that European OTC approval is likely during 2021 and in the US, pending a small six-month trial to show longer term efficacy, is expected in 2022. The format of this supplementary trial will be discussed at the next FDA meeting, expected before end-October. Current funds of £2.62m (at end-June 2020) provide a cash runway to Q221, although this does not include the costs of the US study. We value Futura Medical at £153.8m, equivalent to 60.9p a share.

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  • 16 Sep 20
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Redx Pharma Plc
Proof is in the pipeline

Redx Pharma is a UK-based clinical stage drug discovery company that specialises in developing highly specific small molecules based on its proven medicinal chemistry expertise and research platform. These are either “best-in-class” or “first-in-class” and target existing unmet needs in large oncology and fibrosis indications. A driven management team is implementing a focussed and ambitious strategy that should be transformative for the business over the medium term. The approach has been validated by a series of out-licensing and partnering deals. Knowledgeable and supportive shareholders have rebuilt the balance sheet, but further funding is, in our view, required to capitalise on the existing opportunities. Our valuation, based on conservative assumptions, is £296m, equivalent to 152p/share, and 92p fully diluted.

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  • 14 Sep 20
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Mereo BioPharma Group Plc
TIGIT programme starts the next chapter

Mereo BioPharma is entering a new, and exciting, stage in its journey. Following a successful $70m fund raise, the promising anti-TIGIT antibody, etigilimab, will be progressed into proof-of-concept Phase Ib trials. Other clinical assets, addressing oncology and rare diseases, are approaching key points and partners are sought. Setrusumab for osteogenesis imperfecta, is on track, subject to partnering, to initiate a Phase III registration study this year. The next 18-24 months should see several value inflection events, but it is etigilimab’s progress that will be keenly watched. Updating our rNPV model to reflect the fund raise, FY19 results and expected progress gives a valuation of 100.2p/share or $5.01/ADS

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  • 02 Sep 20
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