Trinity Delta view: The upsized fundraise of £31.1m (gross), together with existing cash of £16.6m (at 1 January 2024), are expected to provide a cash runway of c 24 months (ie into early 2026) covering a number of value inflection points in AVA6000’s development pathway, which could bring opportunities for non-dilutive funding for the broader pre|CISION platform. Monetising Diagnostics through divestment would also bring in non-dilutive funding, but may, in our view, be targeted for later in this period, giving management time to embed the acquisitions, and improve the sales and profitability trajectory. As usual in such situations, we suspend our valuation and forecasts; for context our last published Avacta valuation was £672m (equivalent to 237p per share).

Avacta Group PLC

• 06 Mar 24
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Trinity Delta view: Scancell’s successful upsized >£10m placing removes financial uncertainty and, assuming similar success in the Open Offer, means the cash runway now extends to late 2025. This covers the important clinical milestones for both SCIB1 and Modi-1 programmes and could be extended further through the partnering or out-licensing of selected programmes from the GlyMab and AvidiMab antibody platforms. As usual in such situations we suspend our valuation and forecasts, but for context our last published rNPV based valuation for Scancell was £300.1m, equivalent to 36.7p/share.

Scancell Holdings Plc Scancell Holdings Plc

• 01 Dec 23
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Trinity Delta view: Scancell’s cash runway extends to early 2025, covering important clinical milestones for both SCIB1 and Modi-1 programmes. The highly impressive initial SCOPE data effectively demonstrate the value of the SCIB vaccine in combination with CPIs, suggesting results from the second stage (due in H124) could be similarly positive. Early clinical data from the Modi-1 ModiFY study will also be available in 2024. Encouraging clinical outcomes would validate both the ImmunoBody and Moditope vaccine platforms and likely stimulate industry partnering interest. Licencing interest is also expected for the GlyMab and AvidiMab antibody platforms as Business Development activity is ramped up. Our Scancell rNPV based valuation is £300.1m, or 36.7p/share.

Scancell Holdings Plc Scancell Holdings Plc

• 31 Oct 23
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Trinity Delta view: The potential for long-term value creation in both Avacta divisions is highlighted by: (1) clinical momentum in Therapeutics as lead pre|CISION asset AVA6000 approaches key data read out and initiation of the first potentially registrational trial; and (2) by the commercial momentum in the maturing Diagnostics business as it advances towards self-sustainability. Avacta’s near- and medium-term Therapeutics prospects are underpinned by the pre|CISION platform, with AVA6000 data helping to validate the platform’s tumour targeting potential and providing the blueprint for a pipeline of related products, such as AVA3996. Accelerated clinical development for AVA6000 could mean approval of the first pre|CISION targeted chemotherapy towards end-2026. Our current Avacta valuation is £641m (equivalent to 228p per share).

Avacta Group PLC Avacta Group PLC

• 28 Sep 23
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Trinity Delta view: Although a small patient population, these highly impressive data from the SCOPE study effectively demonstrate the concept of using the SCIB vaccine in combination with CPIs. The strength of the results mean the second stage of the study, treating a further 27 patients (bringing the total to 43), has a 90% probability of success. In parallel, a new patient cohort will examine the same CPI doublet in combination with iSCIB1+, which offers broader patient applicability and greater potency. Data from these is expected during H124 and, subject to funding, will guide a pivotal Phase II/III registration programme. The Phase II part of this study should take 18 months and the power of these results suggest industry interest will be significant. The ImmunoBody therapeutic vaccine is one of Scancell’s four platforms, with the Moditope vaccine expected to deliver top-line Modi-1 CPI combination results during 2024 and the antibody platforms, GlyMab (anti-glycan mAbs) and AvidiMab, likely to see out-licencing deals too. Our Scancell rNPV valuation is £300.1m, or 36.7p/share.

Scancell Holdings Plc Scancell Holdings Plc

• 19 Sep 23
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Trinity Delta view: Avacta’s acquisition of Coris is another step on the pathway to create a full spectrum Diagnostics business that has sufficient product mass and geographic reach to become self-sustaining, both in terms of profitability and new application development. This second deal, following on the heels of Launch Diagnostics in October 2022, provides further momentum to the ‘buy and build’ strategy. While progress in Avacta’s Therapeutics business means it remains in the spotlight, we continue to believe that the less high-profile developments within the Diagnostics division should not be overlooked, and have the potential to create a uniquely positioned Diagnostics business. In terms of forecasts and valuation, at this stage, we view this latest acquisition as a relatively minor factor and will make the necessary adjustments as part of a regular review. Hence, we maintain our current Avacta valuation of £641m (equivalent to 228p per share).

Avacta Group PLC Avacta Group PLC

• 01 Jun 23
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