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Nexstim Oyj
Focussing on strategic priorities

Nexstim’s strategic focus is firmly on fully exploiting the commercial potential of its SmartFocus NBT system in major depressive disorder (MDD), by leveraging its unique navigation capabilities and the positive impact on patient outcomes and health economics. Significant strides were made in 2019, the first year of strategic implementation: FY19 revenue grew 25% to €3.3m, with continued sales momentum in the NBT Therapy business (+131% to €1.5m). Alongside a stronger balance sheet and board and management changes, Nexstim is now undergoing a strategic review and update. This aims to refine its long-term outlook and financial objectives across the Therapy (NBT) and Diagnostics (NBS) businesses and includes evaluating various funding options and strategic alternatives. The review is expected to conclude in the spring; ahead of this, we maintain our €31.4m (€0.50/share) valuation.

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  • 02 Mar 20
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Bonesupport Holding Ab
Cementing the foundations for growth

Bonesupport has, over the course of 2019, laid the foundations for its commercially driven strategy to deliver accelerating growth of its CERAMENT platform. It is targeting 40+% annual revenue growth from 2020 as it seeks to affect a paradigm shift in the way that bone voids are treated. Q419 was the third consecutive quarter of record sales, with FY19 net sales of SEK155m up 61% on FY18. US quarterly sales have returned to their historic peak and client conversions under GPO contracts bode well for US sales momentum. In Europe/RoW antibiotic eluting products continue to show impressive growth (+45% y-o-y). Compelling clinical and health economics data will add further impetus to commercial efforts, with various studies supporting future reimbursement discussions (CONVICTION and SOLARIO) or regulatory approvals (FORTIFY). We upgrade our Bonesupport valuation to SEK43.3/share, or SEK2.27bn.

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  • 02 Mar 20
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Hutchison China Meditech
A wealth of opportunity for surufatinib

2020 will be a pivotal year for Hutchison China MediTech (Chi-Med), and surufatinib will play a key part. The potential China launch of this, Chi-Med’s first wholly owned drug, is now expected within the next 12 months. The new drug application (NDA) for surufatinib in epNET (extra-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours) was accepted by the Chinese regulator in November 2019, and there is the prospect of a second NDA filing for pancreatic NET (pNET) in the coming months. Further news flow is expected with the China Phase IIb/III biliary tract carcinoma (BTC) interim analysis in mid-2020, and initiation of the US/Europe Phase III registration study for NET in a similar timeframe. Reviewing our surufatinib assumptions and updating our model following the c$118m ADS offering lifts our valuation to $5.21bn ($37.73/ADS) or £4.01bn (580p/share).

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  • 18 Feb 20
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Bergenbio ASA
Focused on second-line NSCLC and AML

2019 marked another year of strong clinical progress with bemcentinib. BerGenBio is firmly focused on its development in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) in the second-line (2L) settings, with promising clinical results so far. In 2L NSCLC, the mPFS of 8.4 months seen in AXL+ patients in Cohort A of the ongoing Phase II combination study with pembrolizumab is 4x more than would be expected with pembrolizumab monotherapy. In AML, the FDA has granted fast track status for bemcentinib in the treatment of elderly 2L AML patients; initial data from the current study with low dose cytarabine (LDAC) is promising with responses of >12 months. A recent private placement, raising NOK219.9m, enables BerGenBio to complete current clinical trials and the Phase Ib study with monoclonal antibody tilvestamab (BGB149). We value BerGenBio at NOK3.54bn (NOK48.31/share).

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  • 13 Feb 20
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Bergenbio ASA
Focused on second-line NSCLC and AML

2019 marked another year of strong clinical progress with bemcentinib. BerGenBio is firmly focused on its development in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) in the second-line (2L) settings, with promising clinical results so far. In 2L NSCLC, the mPFS of 8.4 months seen in AXL+ patients in Cohort A of the ongoing Phase II combination study with pembrolizumab is 4x more than would be expected with pembrolizumab monotherapy. In AML, the FDA has granted fast track status for bemcentinib in the treatment of elderly 2L AML patients; initial data from the current study with low dose cytarabine (LDAC) is promising with responses of >12 months. A recent private placement, raising NOK219.9m, enables BerGenBio to complete current clinical trials and the Phase Ib study with monoclonal antibody tilvestamab (BGB149). We value BerGenBio at NOK3.54bn (NOK48.31/share).

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  • 12 Feb 20
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Scancell
Interim results show encouraging progress

Scancell reported H120 results in line with expectations. The highlight of the period has been the three collaborations struck with the AvidiMab platform. The UK arm of the delayed SCIB1 Phase II combination study in melanoma is now set to start patient recruitment; a new US IND is being actively pursued. Development appears to be regaining momentum; with the Modi-1 Phase I/II clinical trial expected to start during 2020, and a SCIB2 study (run by Cancer Research UK) is planned. The end-October 2019 cash position was £5.8m, with the £3.1m net loss offset by a £3.8m equity raise. We value Scancell, using a risk-adjusted DCF model, at £82.0m (17.2p/share).

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  • 31 Jan 20
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