31 Jan 19
Quarterly Research Outlook
The market has not faced quite so many conflicting challenges for a number of years, whether related to global geopolitics, trade wars, ongoing Eurozone issues or the “will they, won’t they” saga of Brexit. In our Best Ideas, we sought to highlight stocks that present investors with interesting opportunities following recent market moves. Those stocks, we believe, warrant investor attention, in many cases for uncorrelated or stockspecific reasons, regardless of the near-to-medium term market direction. These stocks, in general, represent attractive and well-managed businesses or assets, with share price catalysts and where valuations or recent stock performance provide investors with a good entry point.
Companies: 7DIG ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM MACF MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PARK PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZTF
14 Jan 19
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH FDL FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI
11 Mar 19
LIBERUM: MJ Gleeson Group * - Growing confidence
We are more confident in Gleeson Homes' ability to deliver high growth. Volume growth is at 20% pa now, putting it on track to double output about a year earlier than targeted.
Companies: MJ Gleeson
14 Jan 19
UK Housebuilding Sector in 2018
‘From the deserts of East Ham to the gardens of Cottenham’, the UK Housebuilding Sector was whacked to the tune of 27% in 2018; and not one share price (out of 18) rose on the London Stock Exchange.
Companies: BWY CRST BDEV WJG PSN RDW TW/ MCS CSP TEF BKG ABBY GLE
21 Jun 16
The return of the goodwill IPO: How to value a brand?
I wake up in my DFS (DFS) bed with a Gin and Fevertree (FEVR) hangover, place a trade on my phone through CMC Markets (CMCX), have a quick go on my Hornby (HRN) train set, eat half a box of Hotel Chocolat (HOTC), all before heading out in my brand spanking new Joules (JOUL) wellies to my local Metro Bank (MTRO) branch. All of these well-known consumer brands share a common theme in that they are all listed or quoted on the London Stock Exchange. It’s been a year so far reminiscent of 2014 when we saw a flurry of large brands rush for the IPO door such as Pets at Home (PETS), Saga (SAGA), AA (AA) and Poundland (PLND). Most looking for a private equity exit. The IPO adventure of these companies tends to be fairly boiler plate: the valuation is a battleground between the exiting private equity house and incoming institutional investors, the book is many times covered and the scale backs are eye watering. But what makes these companies more alluring to investors than a company nobody has ever heard of which in fact may be profitable, dividend paying and ultimately, on a lower valuation?
Companies: CMCX CSP CYBG WJG ACRL ASCL
22 Nov 17
Acquisition of Keraben Grupo
Victoria has acquired Keraben Grupo S.A. a high-margin European manufacturer of mid-high end branded floor and wall ceramic tiles. Keraben is forecast to have a material impact on profitability and we now forecast 25% 3-year adj. EPS CAGR compared with 18% pre-acquisition.
23 Apr 18
Value screen refresh and 10 focus stocks
We have completed another refresh of our value style screen, first established as of 12 May 2015. As usual the screen selected the 25 stocks exhibiting the most extreme value characteristics from our universe, and we have chosen 10 stocks to focus on. Since the last refresh, two days before the last general election, which resulted in a hung parliament, the screen has performed a little better than the small-cap index with our focus stocks outperforming by about 500bps. The weighting to UK consumer stocks noted last time detracted from performance, which came as little surprise given our cautious stance, much discussed in our other strategy work this year. One might have expected more consumer exposure in the refreshed screen given this year’s severe underperformance, but it appears forecasts have been similarly downgraded, keeping much of the sector outside our value criteria
Companies: AUG EHG GOAL MMH RTHM SDY TEF VANL
04 Jul 18
UK Housebuilding Sector in 2Q 2018
This VAR was conceived in 2010 by the Royal Netherlands Football Association (KNVB) but it was seven years later, in April 2017, that it had its professional club competition debut in the A-League in Australia in a match between Melbourne and Adelaide.
Companies: CSP WJG TEF ABBY INL CRST BWY MCS BKG
22 Aug 18
Headlam have acknowledged that soft trading conditions experienced in H118 are likely to persist over the second half. Whilst the impacts of this are to some extent offset by firming gross margins, this has prompted guidance to the lower end of current market expectations; our “bottom of the range” PBT forecast of £43.5m is unchanged. Ultimately, the flooring market is driven by replacement spend and Headlam should perform well into any rebound in consumer confidence. However, we expect sentiment will remain subdued given nervousness on consumer spending over the seasonally busy Autumn period minimising scope for a recovery in the share price short term.
Companies: Headlam Group
28 Aug 18
Cenkos: IG Design Group Plc - Combining Design & Innovation
IG Design has announced the conditional acquisition of Impact Innovations Inc, in the USA funded by the first tranche of a two part £50.0m placing. A successful acquisition of Impact is expected to make IG Design the largest consumer Gift Packaging business in the world, doubling IG Design's US revenue. IG Design intends to buy 100% of Impact on a debt-free/cash-free basis for £56.5m, on a EV/EBITDA of 4.9x. We upgrade our forecasts, with our FY20E adjusted EPS increasing 15% to 31.4p. Buy.
Companies: IG Design Group
23 Oct 18
Quarterly Research Outlook
The June IPO of Knights Group Holdings, a Top-100 regional law firm, marked the fifth entrant to the burgeoning UK-listed legal sector. Following recent expansion of our coverage across all five listed legal firms, complemented by coverage of three broader support services peers with exposure to the sector, we revisit and build upon our views on this rapidly evolving sector.
Companies: ARS GTLY GENL KEYS KGH MNO RBGP TWD 7DIG ABBY AMS AMER ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPM FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KEYS KGH LAM MACF MNO MKLW NAH OXIG PCA PARK CAKE PDG RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZTF
27 Nov 18
Cenkos: IG Design Group Plc - Exceeding Strong Expectations
IG Design has released its FY19E interims results, which demonstrates a stellar performance ahead of expectations. Revenue grew 23% YoY to £205.2m, benefitting from both organic growth and the Impact acquisition in the US (c£33.0m contribution). Underlying profits increased 71% YoY to £19.0m with margins expanding due to product mix, increased scale and operational efficiencies. We upgrade our FY19E EPS by 4% to 27.0p. The stock trades on a blended CY19E forward EV/Adj EBITDA of 9.5x, which we assess offer investors considerable value for this high-quality compounding business. Buy.
Companies: IG Design Group
22 Jan 19
Accrol has delivered H1 results that shows good progress since the turnaround programme commenced in February 2018. The financial results also show good progress vs. H2 2018. We are maintaining our forecasts following revised 2019E guidance on 8 January, given the dramatic transformation undertaken in 2018 which has now been executed, we anticipate the benefits of such actions to be seen during the months ahead.
Companies: Accrol Group
22 Jan 19
With a geographically well diversified portfolio, strong customer relationships, manufacturing and sourcing expertise and successful integration of acquisitions, Design Group has delivered 9% like-forlike sales growth for the nine months to 31st December 2018. It is on track to meet current market expectations and deliver greater than 20% fully diluted EPS growth for the full year.
Companies: IG Design Group
29 Jan 19
LIBERUM: Crest Nicholson* - New strategy taking shape
Crest Nicholson’s results were broadly as expected, with PBT down 15% to £176m, mainly due to margin pressure as markets in London and the Home Counties saw limited selling price inflation and 3% build cost rises. Looking forward, the outlook remains challenging, and we do not expect Crest Nicholson to pursue completions at any cost, so we cut our estimates by 7-11% across the forecast period.
Companies: Crest Nicholson
19 Feb 19
Telford Homes - Sale of significant build to rent development for £105.5M
05 Feb 19
Consumer Staples: Our Best Ideas We expect sector rotation into defensives: Buy ABI, Imperial, Reckitt
05 Mar 19
Telford Homes - Long term strategic build to rent partners selected
18 Apr 18
IG Design Group (IGR) Investor presentation April 2018
28 Nov 18
Telford Homes - Interim Results 2018
29 Nov 17
Telford Homes - Interim Results 2017
10 Oct 18
Telford Homes - Trading Update
04 Jul 17
Executive interview - IG Design Group
30 Nov 18
Design Group (IGR) H1 results November 2018
27 Jun 17
IG Design Group (IGR) Preliminary results for the year ended 31 March 2017
30 May 18
Telford Homes - Full Year Results
05 Jun 17
Telford Homes - Significant build to rent development in partnership with Greystar
20 Dec 17
Telford Homes - Acquisition of prominent site in Walthamstow
02 Feb 17
Telford Homes Plc - Acquisition of Cambridge Heath Road for £30.2m
11 Oct 17
Telford Homes - Trading update
JAN WJG NKTN GROW OPG ORR NTBR MOGP CORO SCH
Small Cap Feast
Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m. Diaceutics, a data analytics and implementation services company which services the global pharmaceutical industry, is looking to join AIM late March, offer TBC.
11 Mar 19
Leclanché - Revenues more than doubled during FY18
Leclanché has announced that it expects FY18 revenues in excess of CHF47m, ahead of our CHF42.5m estimate. This is more than double the CHF18m reported in FY17. We place our estimates under review until the full FY18 results are announced in early April.
08 Mar 19
Good 2018 set of figures, confidence for 2019
Seb had a good 2018 set of figures. Sales grew by 5.1% and the operating result from activity (ORfA) increased by +2.5% (vs a restated 2017 basis) rather in line with guidance (c.+3%). Strong organic sales growth (+7.8%) and cost efficiency limited the impact of higher raw material costs and negative currency effects at the operating result. For 2019, Seb is expecting organic sales growth and an increase in the ORfA, including some negative raw material and currency effects.
04 Mar 19
Walker Greenbank - Expectations met, tough UK conditions persist
Year-end comments confirm FY19 results are expected to be in line with management estimates. Strong Licensing performance is likely to have contributed meaningfully to this outcome and towards an ungeared balance sheet position. UK market trends remain weak and cause us to reduce our earnings estimates by 20–25% for FY20 and FY21 although, in the absence of fresh guidance, we have assumed that DPS is maintained at FY18 levels ahead of FY19 results, which are scheduled for 10 April.
26 Feb 19
SKIN MCB IPEL EDEN COS BGO EML MBT EKF HAYD
Small Cap Feast
United Oil & Gas (UOG.L) an oil and gas exploration and development company brought to the Official List (Standard Segment) in July 2017 by way of a reverse takeover of Senterra Energy plc. No capital to be raised, expected market cap of £17m and expected 28 Feb Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m. Polemos, to be renamed Digitalbox plc, has agreed to acquire Digitalbox Publishing Holdings Limited for c.£10m through a share for share exchange. The acquisition constitutes a RTO. Polemos has also agreed to acquire the entire issued share capital of Mashed Productions Limited, a digital media business which owns the online satirical news website "The Daily Mash", for a maximum total consideration of up to £1.2m. Market cap on admission £12.4m, expected 28 February
20 Feb 19
Walker Greenbank is a higher end interior furnishings business with well-established global brand names and manufacturing facilities in the UK. The Group has this morning provided a year-end update confirming that results for the year to 31 January 2019 are anticipated to be in line with the Board’s revised expectations; these benefitting from significantly higher licensing income, including from a major contract with H&M. Underlying core trading, most notably in the UK, has continued to be challenging, a trend that in the near term shows little sign of abating. Reflecting these trends, whilst assuming that licensing income reverts to more normalised levels in the current financial year, leads us to reduce our FY 2020E earnings expectations by 25% this morning. Today’s update again illustrates the current market uncertainty and whilst this will take time to improve, we do believe that the Group remains strategically well positioned in its markets and should benefit from its overseas presence, further licensing opportunities and other initiatives in time.
19 Feb 19