FY19 marginally ahead; modest improvement expected in 2020

Headlam Group

• 16 Jan 20
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FY19 marginally ahead; modest improvement expected in 2020

Headlam Group

• 16 Jan 20
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It’s sometimes easy for investors to get caught up in the latest ‘buzz doing the rounds’, and lose sight of the big picture. Namely finding quality stocks that can out-perform across the economic cycle. Cue Watkin Jones, a developer/manager of large scale, multi occupancy accommodation, who - since IPO’ing at 100p in March 2016 - has delivered a total return of 163% (28.6% IRR):- split 142p capital appreciation and 21p dividends.

Watkin Jones

• 14 Jan 20
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It’s sometimes easy for investors to get caught up in the latest ‘buzz doing the rounds’, and lose sight of the big picture. Namely finding quality stocks that can out-perform across the economic cycle. Cue Watkin Jones, a developer/manager of large scale, multi occupancy accommodation, who - since IPO’ing at 100p in March 2016 - has delivered a total return of 163% (28.6% IRR):- split 142p capital appreciation and 21p dividends.

Watkin Jones

• 14 Jan 20
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Despite the disposal of 229 PRS units, we retain our FY estimates as the sales were already reflected in forecasts. It does, however, highlight the underlying attractiveness of Dublin as an investor market – this is Cairn’s 4 th PRS disposal, and Cairn’s 2 nd to Carysfort Capital. The stock trades on 1.3x price to book which implies 23% upside. We would further argue that the book value underrepresents the true asset value.

Cairn Homes

• 13 Jan 20
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Despite the disposal of 229 PRS units, we retain our FY estimates as the sales were already reflected in forecasts. It does, however, highlight the underlying attractiveness of Dublin as an investor market – this is Cairn’s 4 th PRS disposal, and Cairn’s 2 nd to Carysfort Capital. The stock trades on 1.3x price to book which implies 23% upside. We would further argue that the book value underrepresents the true asset value.

Cairn Homes

• 13 Jan 20
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Our Hot Off The Wires daily newsletter takes a look at the morning's market movements, news stories and company announcements. Don't forget to have a go at our daily trivia! Companies mentioned in this edition include: IAG, Tesco, Bunzl, Rathbones, Dunelm, Marks & Spencer, Mitchell & Butlers, Card Factory, *SIG, Galliford Try, Liontrust, Hipgnosis Songs Fund, *Avation, Nichols, Naked Wines, John Lewis and the potential upcoming IPO of Calisen Group Holdings. If you would like to be subscribed, please email us at info@capitalaccessgroup.co.uk. *Capital Access represents SIG and Avation - if you would like more information or access to the Management teams of either of these companies, please get in touch.

AVAP GFRD SHI

• 09 Jan 20
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Our Hot Off The Wires daily newsletter takes a look at the morning's market movements, news stories and company announcements. Don't forget to have a go at our daily trivia! Companies mentioned in this edition include: IAG, Tesco, Bunzl, Rathbones, Dunelm, Marks & Spencer, Mitchell & Butlers, Card Factory, *SIG, Galliford Try, Liontrust, Hipgnosis Songs Fund, *Avation, Nichols, Naked Wines, John Lewis and the potential upcoming IPO of Calisen Group Holdings. If you would like to be subscribed, please email us at info@capitalaccessgroup.co.uk. *Capital Access represents SIG and Avation - if you would like more information or access to the Management teams of either of these companies, please get in touch.

AVAP GFRD SHI

• 09 Jan 20
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Eurozone confidence rises in December, US non-res lead indicator rises again, Airbus CEO pledges commitment to UK

Headlam Group

• 09 Jan 20
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Eurozone confidence rises in December, US non-res lead indicator rises again, Airbus CEO pledges commitment to UK

Headlam Group

• 09 Jan 20
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Gleeson’s trading update reports that Homes sold 17% more units in the first half to December, 6% better than expected, as demand remains strong. Strategic Land made no sales in the first half, as these have slipped into the second half due to election disruption, but management is confident that this division will make a full year contribution in line with expectations as demand from housebuilders remains strong.

MJ Gleeson

• 09 Jan 20
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Gleeson’s trading update reports that Homes sold 17% more units in the first half to December, 6% better than expected, as demand remains strong. Strategic Land made no sales in the first half, as these have slipped into the second half due to election disruption, but management is confident that this division will make a full year contribution in line with expectations as demand from housebuilders remains strong.

MJ Gleeson

• 09 Jan 20
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For fighter pilots, it is a minimum requirement. But having 20/20 ‘visual acuity’ (correct term) does not necessarily mean you have perfect vision (as convention assumes); instead, it indicates sharpness and clarity of vision at a distance. It is measured by a Snellen Chart, which displays letters of progressively smaller size and whereby 20/20 means that the test subject sees the same line of letters at 20 feet that a person with normal vision sees at 20 feet (or 6 metres; but 6/6 simply didn’t catch on).

ABBY BDEV BWY BKG BVS CRN CSP CRST GLE GLV INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ WJG

• 08 Jan 20
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For fighter pilots, it is a minimum requirement. But having 20/20 ‘visual acuity’ (correct term) does not necessarily mean you have perfect vision (as convention assumes); instead, it indicates sharpness and clarity of vision at a distance. It is measured by a Snellen Chart, which displays letters of progressively smaller size and whereby 20/20 means that the test subject sees the same line of letters at 20 feet that a person with normal vision sees at 20 feet (or 6 metres; but 6/6 simply didn’t catch on).

ABBY BDEV BWY BKG BVS CRN CSP CRST GLE GLV INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ WJG

• 08 Jan 20
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The results came in as expected at the headline level, with adjusted EBITDA (post IFRS 16) of £3.2m (adj. EBITDA of £1.9m pre-IFRS 16), which compared to a £1.1m loss last year at the adjusted EBITDA level. Encouragingly net debt is now reducing at an accelerated rate ahead of our expectations, with adjusted EBITDA on track. However, interest costs are £0.6m higher than our previous expectations for FY, which triggers a 7.9% EPS downgrade in 2020 and 6.1% and 3.1% in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Our intrinsic value analysis implies a valuation range of £89.8m - £139.1m (vs. a current market cap of £60.5m).

Accrol Group

• 07 Jan 20
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The results came in as expected at the headline level, with adjusted EBITDA (post IFRS 16) of £3.2m (adj. EBITDA of £1.9m pre-IFRS 16), which compared to a £1.1m loss last year at the adjusted EBITDA level. Encouragingly net debt is now reducing at an accelerated rate ahead of our expectations, with adjusted EBITDA on track. However, interest costs are £0.6m higher than our previous expectations for FY, which triggers a 7.9% EPS downgrade in 2020 and 6.1% and 3.1% in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Our intrinsic value analysis implies a valuation range of £89.8m - £139.1m (vs. a current market cap of £60.5m).

Accrol Group

• 07 Jan 20
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The US remains a burden for Electrolux. The ramp-up of the production of refrigerators/freezers in the new facility (Anderson) is taking longer than expected with a negative impact on volume. Furthermore, Electrolux is affected by the destocking at a big customer which is reorganising itself. Consequently, Q4 19 will be affected by higher costs ($-70m vs $-25m estimated previously) and the full effect of the cost savings is postponed to 2021 (vs 2020 previously).

Electrolux

• 16 Dec 19
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The US remains a burden for Electrolux. The ramp-up of the production of refrigerators/freezers in the new facility (Anderson) is taking longer than expected with a negative impact on volume. Furthermore, Electrolux is affected by the destocking at a big customer which is reorganising itself. Consequently, Q4 19 will be affected by higher costs ($-70m vs $-25m estimated previously) and the full effect of the cost savings is postponed to 2021 (vs 2020 previously).

Electrolux

• 16 Dec 19
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A narrower focus on core business strengths driven with greater operational intensity is an appealing proposition under a revised strategy and new senior management team. More detail will emerge here, but an intention to regain revenue momentum will be a clear marker to watch. H120 results were in line with pre-close comments and our earnings estimates are unchanged at this stage. They – and we suspect the company valuation – have yet to fully factor in renewed strategic impetus.

Walker Greenbank

• 09 Dec 19
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A narrower focus on core business strengths driven with greater operational intensity is an appealing proposition under a revised strategy and new senior management team. More detail will emerge here, but an intention to regain revenue momentum will be a clear marker to watch. H120 results were in line with pre-close comments and our earnings estimates are unchanged at this stage. They – and we suspect the company valuation – have yet to fully factor in renewed strategic impetus.

Walker Greenbank

• 09 Dec 19
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