Most viewed research
The Quest for Dividends
01 Feb 17
The Dow Jones Index has just breached the 20,000 mark, the first time in its 131- year history that it has done so, whilst the FTSE-100 Index has also been at record levels in recent weeks. The election of the controversial Donald Trump as the new US President, and more specifically the impact of his planned expansionist economic policies, have boosted stock markets, both in the US and in the UK.
12 Apr 16
Rigid-plastic-products manufacturer and waste-management services provider One51 is holding a general meeting on 21 April to gain the shareholder approvals required to issue shares for a potential flotation on AIM and the Enterprise Securities Market (ESM). In 2014, Ireland-based One51 paid 78p a share in cash for AIM-quoted Straight, which valued the wheeled-bins manufacturer at £10.7m. One51 subsequently bought a controlling stake in Canadian plasticproducts business IPL. A flotation would trigger a deal to swap One51 shares for the one-third of IPL that it does not currently own. The plastics division is the main focus of expansion. One51 is a substantial business. In 2015, revenues grew from €276.5m to €366m, while underlying profit almost doubled from €16.2m to €31.9m. A full 12-month contribution from IPL would have taken revenues to €473.5m and grown profit even more rapidly. Plastic products generate nearly two-thirds of revenues and a greater proportion of profit. Net debt was €120m at the end of 2015 and there is contingent consideration of more than €33m that could become payable. Numis and Davy have been appointed as advisers for the flotation, which is still dependent on market conditions. Although One51 is unlisted there has been regular trading in its shares since 2007 and by the end of March the shares were changing hands at €1.70 each.
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Consistent growth screen refresh + “11 with legs”
29 Sep 16
We have performed a second refresh of our consistent growth screen, first established with our research note of 17 December last year. As previously, the screen produces a basket of 25 stocks that exhibit not only good growth in EPS and sales, but also a consistency of growth in both measures each year. This basket, or style, has underperformed the small-cap benchmark by 9.1% since inception last December, and by 4.8% since the last refresh on 13 April. We highlight stocks leaving and joining the basket and take a closer look at 11 stocks “11 with legs” in the refreshed screen. We will continue to monitor performance of the basket and refresh it again in about 4 months’ time, but interestingly, consistent growth is beginning to look like consistent underperformance!
Panmure Research - Conviction List 2016 (06-Jan-2016)
06 Jan 16
The Panmure Gordon Conviction List returned 23.3% in 2015; this was set against the DS All Share that returned -2.3% over the same period. This represents the 14th period out of 16 where the Conviction List has outperformed the market benchmark and means that a reinvested Conviction List would have returned 175% since its inception in 2010 against the DS All Share that returned 20%. Top long performers in 2015 were Ryanair, Avacta Group, Bovis Homes, Informa and Micro Focus, while the best short ideas were Petra Diamonds, Fenner, Rolls-Royce, Majestic Wine and Vesuvius.
Capital increase marks a step change
06 Dec 16
Globalworth (GWI) has announced that it is raising €200m via a subscription by two investors for 25m new shares priced at €8. As well as significantly increasing GWI’s capital available for investment, the terms of the subscription introduce a new dividend policy similar to that of a REIT and strengthen corporate governance structures, in line with its institutional shareholder base. GWI will pay dividends equivalent to at least 90% of FFO and has indicated a total payment of €0.44 per share for 2017 (a yield of 7% on the current share price). We have suspended our forecasts pending shareholder approval of the proposals, expected by 20 December 2016.
N+1 Singer - Northern lights - Shining prospects for 2017
16 Jan 17
As the birthplace of Stephenson, Armstrong and Swan, the North East of England has a proud history of industrial and technological innovation. Despite local economic challenges, the region’s industrial heritage lives on through continuing success in high end engineering and technology. The recent takeovers of private equity backed SMD (subsea robotics) and Nomad Digital (wi-fi on the railways) are testament to this. The North East has also emerged as a leader in genetics and genomics with an enviable life sciences and healthcare infrastructure. Against this backdrop, we expect the region to continue to throw up attractive IPO candidates to build on the six new listings in the past three years. We expect 2017 to be far kinder to the existing portfolio of North East plcs than 2016 (a year to forget) with recent management changes one important theme for the new year. Our top picks are Hargreaves Services, Quantum Pharma and Zytronic (all N+1 Singer Corporate clients) and we are Buyers of Northgate and Grainger.
Videos and Podcasts
21 Feb 17
"With the US markets closed for a public holiday and little in the way of significant macro data to shape sentiment, yesterday's equity trading in London was largely driven by corporate events. Top of these was Heinz's apparent 'amicable' withdrawal of its approach on Unilever (ULVR.L), although disappointing full year results also knocked Bovis Homes (BVS.L) hard while RBS (RBS.L) shares celebrated the news that its management had abandoned efforts to sell Williams & Glyn. The fact that Unilever shares only gave back half of Friday's gains was testament to the opinion that Heinz, backed by dealmaker Warren Buffett, is considered unlikely simply walk away from a proposal that it will have spent months intricately crafting. So the corporate 'dance' has now moved behind the scenes, with Heinz ultimately wishing to arrive at a recommended merger although it is, of course, is permitted to make another unsolicited approach in six months' time. Meanwhile, there will be the opportunity to trade volatility in both their shares, as contradictory stories inevitably ebb and flow. During this morning's Asian trading, HSBC (HSBA.L) also kicked off the banking sector's reporting season with a drop in pre-tax profits and dividend declaration much as anticipated, although a US$1bn share buy- back following US$2.5bn in 2H'2016 rather disappointed investors. This left the Nikkei leading the regions gains despite the US$ being broadly stronger against all local currencies, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite went in opposite direction and the ASX trod water. Economic releases due from the UK this morning include January Public Sector Net Borrowing followed by a 10:00hrs speech to MPs from The Governor of the Bank of England. The EU is due to provide Markit PMI for February, while the US also details Markit PMI and its Redbook along with speeches from FOMC members Patrick Harker and John Williams. UK corporates due to report also include Anglo American (AAL.L), BHP Billiton (BLT.L), InterContinental Hotels (IHG.L), Galliford Try (GFRD.L) and Wood Group (WG..L). Traders will also be listening out for more news from Greece, which has taken a small but significant step with respect to re-commencing its bailout negotiations as the Greek government agrees with Eurozone Finance Ministers to receive a technical team in Athens. The London equity market is seen opening quietly this morning, with the FTSE-100 expected to be down 10 points or so in opening trade." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Positive results, waiting on disposals
16 Feb 17
We have updated our model on Klepierre’s FY16 numbers. The published figures are marginally in line with our expectations and we maintain our positive stance on the stock. As a reminder: • Shopping centre NRI stood at €1.05bn gaining 1.7% yoy (+3.5% lfl), and standing +320bp ahead of the index. • EPS at €2.31, +6.8% yoy, exceeded the guided €2.23-2.25, and stood ahead of our expected €2.28. The proposed dividend was €1.82, +7.1% yoy, and net debt lowered by €244m, leading to a 2.1% decrease in cost of debt. • EPRA NAV per share at €36.7, gained +5.9% yoy while the group’s GAV at €22.8bn, gained 4.5% lfl. Management expects a positive FY17, despite a relatively stable macro environment and limited indexation. EPS is seen at €2.35-2.40.
FY16 results - another look at Unibail
13 Feb 17
We have updated our model after Unibail’s FY16 numbers. We maintain a positive recommendation on the stock following the solid bottom line and positive asset revaluations. As a reminder, the numbers came in above our expectations with EPS at €11.20, standing ahead of the guided €11-11.20 and our expectations, and a triple net NAV at €183, in line with our expectations. Management proposed a dividend of €10.20 per share. The average cost of debt was lowered to 1.6%, the best-in-class in our property coverage thanks to recent issues (including the first public bond with a 20-year maturity) and the group’s portfolio GAV now stands at €40.5bn, gaining 6.2% lfl. For FY17, recurring EPS is expected to be between €11.80 and €12.00.
13 Feb 17
Surface Transforms* (SCE): H1 results confirm operational progress (CORP) | Premaitha Health* (NIPT): European diagnostics partnership (CORP) | Lok'nStore* (LOK): Filling existing stores, developing new ones (CORP) | Victoria* (VCP): Entry into the European flooring market (CORP) | eg solutions* (EGS): Exceptional H2 performance (CORP)
N+1 Singer - Grainger - Positive start to FY17e, rental growth continues
08 Feb 17
Grainger has reported a solid start to the new financial year (4 months incl. Q1 and January) with continued rental growth and sales of vacant properties modestly ahead of HPI in the period. Positive progress has been made on PRS assets under development, with planning permission received on a 242 unit site in Leeds last week. Grainger highlights a positive impact from the Housing White Paper: the revised planning framework favouring affordable rent. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and 320p 12m Target Price. The shares continue to trade at a discount (15%) to NNNAV which ignores the value in the reversionary surplus and the opportunity to reinvest capital in yielding PRS.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 08-02-2017
08 Feb 17
blur Group (BLUR LN) Trading update and first enterprise subscription | First Derivatives (FDP LN) Strategic investment partnership, target price increased | Grainger (GRI LN) Positive start to FY17e, rental growth continues | Victrex (VCT LN) Solid Q1, shine taken off by medical
Small Cap Breakfast
06 Feb 17
Arix Bioscience — Intention to float on the main market from the global healthcare and life science company supporting medical innovation. Raised £52m in Feb 16 with investors including Woodford Investment Management Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—Schedule One Update. Now expects admission ‘early February’. Ramsdens Holdings –Schedule One from the financial services provider and retailer, operating in the core business segments of foreign currency exchange, pawnbroking loans, precious metals buying and selling and retailing of second hand and new jewellery. Expected admission to AIM 15 Feb raising circa £15.6m. Expected mkt cap £26.5m.