10 Oct 17
UK Housebuilding Sector: Q3 2017
‘The $64,000 Question’
Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG BVS CRN CSP CRST GLE INL MCS PSN RDW TW/ TEF WJG
26 Sep 17
Since our first quarterly at the end of 2015, 12 of the 59 companies we included in our valuation tables have been bid for. Given those tables were simply designed to show the range of companies present within the sector, not a hit-list of undervalued opportunities, the fact that 20% of them have been taken over is worth looking at in more detail. At a time when warnings and share price collapses from the likes of Interserve, Carillion, MITIE, DX and Capita and Serco have dominated newsflow, it should be remembered that the sector is broad and highly varied both in terms of business model and performance. If the troubles of a minority of the sector drag down wider valuations then the evidence is that there is an army of potential bidders (reinforced by the weakness of sterling) ready to take advantage.
Companies: FOUR ACL BOOT CLL CMS CNCT FCRM LOK PPH RNWH SVCA STAF UTW WATR VANL WYG
19 Jan 16
Panmure Morning Note 19-01-16
Equity market weakness may persist for some time while the imbalances caused by weak global growth, oil and commodity prices and currency wars play out. UK commercial property looks a safe haven, in our view, backed by a robust domestic economy, supply scarcity, low interest rates and non-oil based currency. The challenges are to capture the current strength, while balancing the financial and property risks. These are central to the British Land strategy. The low gearing, coupled with a clear ability to operationally out-perform (as today's update evidences) indicates that the management is well prepared. We consider the 20% discount to NAV unjustified and retain our Buy recommendation and target price at par with the one year forward NAV.
Companies: British Land Company
02 Oct 17
The Monthly October 2017
In the October edition of the Hardman Monthly newsletter, Chief Executive, Keith Hiscock analyses the much misunderstood – but highly important – issue of stock liquidity. In particular, he focuses on the lower echelons of the Main Market and of AIM.
Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY MCL MUR NSF OBT ODX OXB NIPT PHP PURP RE/ RGD SCLP SPH SCE TRX VAL
23 May 17
Assura plc - Full Year Results
31 Jul 17
Executive interview - Custodian REIT
31 May 17
LondonMetric - Full Year Results 2016/17 CEO Interview
27 Jul 17
Primary Health Properties - Half Year Results Interview
19 May 17
Leading UK fund manager, Gervais Williams, discusses investing, his outlook and two companies he's excited about
13 Jul 17
Executive interview - Picton Property Income
28 Jul 17
Sirius Real - Private Placement
12 Apr 17
Sirius Real Estate - Trading statement
30 Nov 16
LondonMetric - Half year results
04 Apr 17
Executive interview - Regional REIT
01 Jun 16
LondonMetric - Full year results 2016 video
17 Mar 17
Capital Network's David Eaton on Hibernia REIT
31 Jul 17
Executive interview - Target Healthcare REIT
09 Mar 17
Sirius Real Estate - Move to Main Market
26 Jun 17
Sirius Real Estate - 2017 Final Results
AIF AMC ARS JAY BHP MNC NCCL RIO SHG
SP Angel – Morning View
Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) BUY - Target price 12.2p – New exploration license secured in Ethiopia | Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Progress on Kun Manie PFS update | Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) – Additional drilling intersections from BKZ | BlueJay Mining* (JAY LN) STRONG BUY - Target Price 24p – Dundas feasibility study and director options | BHP Billiton (BLT LN) – Maintaining all 2018 production and cost guidance –exploration focus on copper | Metminco* (MNC LN) – Miraflores Feasibility study and maiden ore reserve | Ncondezi Energy (NCCL LN) – Conditional placing of £750,000 | Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Rio fined for accounting treatment of Riversdale losses | Shanta Gold (SHG LN) Target price 4.1p – Debt restructuring update
18 Oct 17
PPC BMK HCM IHC KCR DOTD STI TIDE
Small Cap Brunch
Totally (TLY) - Sch 1 for £11m RTO of Vocare, a provider of integrated urgent care services to the NHS throughout the UK. £76.8 million rev in the year ended 31 March 2017. Totally to address Care Quality Commission concerns. Due 24 Oct. Central Asia Metals (CAML) -RTO of Lynx Resources. Anticipated market capitalisation at Admission: £404.8m. Raising £113m at 230p. Acquiring the SASA zinc-lead mine in Macedonia from Solway Industries. Due 15 Dec. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. Orogen plc, to be renamed Sosandar plc on Admission. Sosander is an online womenswear brand specifically targeted at a generation of women who have graduated from younger online and high street brands, and are looking for affordable clothing with a premium, trend-led aesthetic. Offer to raise £5.3m with market cap of £16.1m, expected 2 November 2017 OG Graphite, brownfield development-stage graphite company focused on the reactivation of its wholly-owned Kearney natural flake graphite mine and mill located 280 km north of Toronto, Canada. Offer TBA, expected late October .
17 Oct 17
PYC SYS1 SPSY KOOV ODX FOX PCA STEL IPEL
Small Cap Breakfast
Totally (TLY) - Sch 1 for £11m RTO of Vocare, a provider of integrated urgent care services to the NHS throughout the UK. £76.8 million rev in the year ended 31 March 2017. Totally to address Care Quality Commission concerns. Due 24 Oct. Central Asia Metals (CAML) -RTO of Lynx Resources. Anticipated market capitalisation at Admission: £404.8m. Raising £113m at 230p. Acquiring the SASA zinc-lead mine in Macedonia from Solway Industries. Due 15 Dec. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. Orogen plc, to be renamed Sosandar plc on Admission. Sosander is an online womenswear brand specifically targeted at a generation of women who have graduated from younger online and high street brands, and are looking for affordable clothing with a premium, trend-led aesthetic. Offer to raise £5.3m with market cap of £16.1m, expected 2 November 2017 OG Graphite, brownfield development-stage graphite company focused on the reactivation of its wholly-owned Kearney natural flake graphite mine and mill located 280 km north of Toronto, Canada. Offer TBA, expected late October . SolGold—Publication of prospectus regarding transfer from AIM. Due 6 Oct ContourGlobal LP— contracted wholesale power generation businesses, with 69 thermal and renewable power generation assets in Europe, Latin America and Africa. In the year ended 31 December 2016 it generated $905.2 million of combined revenue and $440.4 million of Adjusted EBITDA. Raising c.$400m. Expected November. TI Fluid Systems—Maybe second time lucky? Pulled last October. global manufacturer of automotive fluid storage, carrying and delivery systems seeking to raise €425m to reduce financial leverage (to approximately 2.0x net debt to Adjusted EBITDA by the end of FY 2017). Possible partial sale by Bain. Revenue for FY 2016 was €3.3 billion and Adjusted EBIT was €362.1 million M7 Multi-Let REIT—Intends to raise up to £300m at 100p. Aims to acquire and hold a portfolio of UK regional light industrial and regional office assets diversified by geography, asset type and tenants that is expected to generate stable income returns and, where appropriate, offer the potential to leverage and enhance returns through active asset management initiatives. Due 13 Nov. Bakkavor Group - Provider of fresh prepared food intends to float in November. FY 16 Revenue: £1,763.6 million FY 16 Adjusted EBITDA: £146.4 million (13.7% CAGR FY 14-FY 16). Part vendor sale and primary raise of c. £100m. Price TBA. Russia’s En+, owned by Russian aluminium tycoon Oleg Deripaska, has assets in metals and energy, including hydropower. reported to be seeking dual London and Moscow listing raising $1.5bn TMF Group , which provides tax, admin and legal support services, reported to be seeking London IPO to raise c. £200m. People’s Investment Trust—Objective of sustainable wealth creation. Also to list on the Social Stock Exchange. Targeting £125m raise on 17 Oct. No performance fees or executive bonuses in order to focus on long term rather than short term performance.
16 Oct 17
Transformational acquisition of £72m portfolio
PCA has completed the acquisition of RT Warren, its largest to date. The transaction will transform results this year, and have a full impact from FY19. We have updated our forecasts for the addition of the acquired £72m portfolio, and the dilutive impact of shares issued to finance the purchase. The £70m placing at 340p/share reduces projected NAV/share by c 13%, but dividends on the enlarged equity base should still be fully i.e. 1.1x covered (1.2x previously) by underlying EPS, based on estimates of initial net rent from the new assets.
12 Oct 17
Aiming high with acquisition and placing
Palace Capital shareholders have approved the significant acquisition of RT Warren, with a mixed use investment portfolio valued at £71.8m, and the issue of shares to fund it. Management has built a strong track record of value creation from previous acquisitions and expects its management of these newly acquired assets to yield similar results. That potential is not reflected in our revised estimates with the effect that earnings and NAV are diluted. Our dividend forecasts remain the same, and fully covered, such that Palace retains a highly attractive yield and discount to NAV. The increased market capitalisation and intention to seek a Main Market listing are likely to broaden Palace’s appeal to a wider investor base.
11 Oct 17
Taliesin Property Fund
Buy: Still undervalued
Despite the strong rise in the valuation of Taliesin Property Fund (TPF) we believe that the investment case remains attractive. Demand for Berlin real estate remains extremely robust. With regulatory approval in place for almost all the units to be split into their freehold apartments, the current NAV still has upside potential given the price of freehold apartments in Berlin and the distribution of TPF’s property portfolio. Additional catalysts at the portfolio level include developing the roof space and rent increases as vacant apartments are renovated. Given the transaction costs of acquiring properties in Berlin we believe TPF is likely to be an attractive acquisition candidate. We continue to recommend that investors buy TPF.
11 Oct 17
New Jewel for the Palace
Following the completion of the Open Offer & General Meeting on 7th October 2017, Palace Capital has successfully raised £70m of new equity to fund the acquisition of R.T. Warren. R.T. Warren contains 21 commercial properties, comprised of 15 office buildings, 4 retail properties and 2 industrial holdings as well as 65 residential properties. The portfolio was valued by Cushman & Wakefield at £71.8m and Palace is paying £68m (£53.3m cash, £14.5m debt). Consistent with Palace’s strategy the properties are located outside London in high value areas such as York, Winchester, Southampton, Beaconsfield, Brighton, Gerrards Cross, Uxbridge and Thame. The acquisition completed on 9th October 2017.
11 Oct 17