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Baytex Energy (BTE-TSX); BUY, C$2.75
Companies: Baytex Energy Corp.
IMPACT: Slightly positive. AFFO beat by a few million bucks on strong netbacks; 2019 production guidance was adjusted modestly higher again (likely due to gas volumes); average Q3 Eagle Ford 30-day oil IP rates look to have been a record high.
016 capex guidance was revised $32.5 mm lower at the midpoint to $200-$225 mm, a result of paring back the Eagle Ford development pace. Lower capex plus minor asset sales led to lower 2016e production guidance, down 2 mboe/d to 67-69 mboe/d. 2Q16 CFPS of $0.39/share (diluted) was in line with our prior $0.38/share estimate and higher than consensus at $0.34/share. Production was in line, while organic capex was much lower than we estimated ($36 mm versus our $59 mm estimate). No change to $7.50/
Market Impact: Neutral. Results were in-line or beat our estimates and consensus, while reduced spending and asset divestitures will help strengthen the balance sheet.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
Companies: ARX 0UG9 TNZ BTE BNP BNE CJ CKE 0UR7 CR DEE ERF GXE IKM JOY KEL MQL NVA PPY POU PGF PWT PMT PRQ 0VCO PNE PSK RMP RRX SKX SGY TVE TOU TVETF VET WCP YO TET SPE LTS
Mr. Ed LaFehr, previously the COO of TAQA, has been appointed as President at Baytex (effective July 18th), a position that will report to CEO James Bowzer.
Market Impact: Perhaps slightly negative as the CRA has made its proposal official. It is important to note that unlike past CRA disputes with other Canadian oil & gas companies, BTE will not have to provide any security (typically 50% of the claim) as the claim is against commercial trusts, and some of those other disputes have been settled by reducing tax pools instead of paying cash. Nevertheless, until this dispute with the CRA is resolved, it have at least some impact on BTE's internal budg
1Q16 results in line to slightly better than expectations. Marathon disclosures point to Eagle Ford 1Q16 well costs averaging ~US$0.8 mm less than BTE’s guidance. Some shut-in heavy oil production to be restarted, with possibly more if oil prices hold. Full-time salaries and director retainers reduced 10%. Target price increased $0.50 to $5.50/share, ranking unchanged at Market Perform
Market Impact: Neutral. CFPS met our expectations and consensus, production was higher than our estimate and Baytex's 1Q16 guidance. Capital spending was higher than we had forecast, but guidance remains unchanged for the year.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: ARX 0UG9 TNZ BTE BNP BNE CJ CKE 0UR7 CR DEE ERF GXE IKM JOY KEL ROAOF MQL NVA PPY POU PGF PMT 0VCO PNE PSK RMP RRX SKX SGY TVE TOU TVETF VET WCP YGR YO RE/ TET SPE LRE LTS
With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.
Companies: ARX 0UG9 TNZ BTE BNP BNE BXO CJ CKE 0UR7 ERF GXE IKM KEL MQL NVA PPY POU PGF PWT PMT 0VCO RMP RRX SKX SGY TVE TXP TVETF VET WCP YGR YO TET LRE LTS PNE
Market Impact: Positive. Although investors were expecting this event, the announcement provides certainty.
The reduced 2016e budget forecasts capex and production to be down ~53% and ~17% year-over-year, respectively. Our 2016e CFPS estimate has increased 49% (better realizations, lower costs). While Eagle Ford 2P reserves per well are up ~14% year-over-year, at ~750 mboe this is still below what BTE and operator Marathon suggest. 2016e total Eagle Ford capex per well drilled looks to be down ~14% vs. 2015, in US$ terms. Securitization of bank debt sounds likely. However, the senior notes covenant ma
Market Impact: Positive, as 4Q15 CFPS beat our estimate and consensus on better netbacks and higher production, while 2016e capex has been further reduced.
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our crude oil commodity price update. Concurrent within a dynamic time for E&Ps, some of which have already begun the process of 2016 capital budget downdrafts, revised estimates attempt to directionally capture a shift towards capital conservation, though severely weakened futures curves have influenced our thinking for the better part of 6 months anyway. We expect further capital investment reductions forthcoming from E&Ps i
Companies: ARX 0UG9 TNZ BTE BNP BNE BXO CJ CKE 0UR7 CR DEE ERF GXE IKM JOY KEL ROAOF MQL NVA PPY POU PGF PWT PMT 0VCO PNE PSK RMP RRX SKX SGY TVE TOU TVETF VET WCP YGR YO RE/ TET SPE LRE LTS
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Baytex Energy Corp..
We currently have 36 research reports from 2
Last week we attended a site visit to i3’s assets in central Alberta in Canada – the company’s largest producing area. We were left with a favourable impression of the magnitude of the company’s operations in the region, of the professional operational running of these, and of the overall level of opportunity in this well-established oil and gas province.
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
Good news for Reabold, which is set to receive £5.2m of the second tranche payment from Shell imminently for the Victory gas field it acquired last year. The final £4.4m payment is due once the development approval for the field is received from the NSTA in the coming months. These funds will allow RBD to progress its two onshore gas developments in the UK and Italy and consider further distributions to shareholders. Partner funding of these projects remains an issue, but RBD’s risk/reward profi
Companies: Reabold Resources plc
88 Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Plexus Holdings, Baron Oil, Harbour Energy, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, Arrow Exploration, Southern Energy, Serinus Energy, SDX Energy, Panoro Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, OKEA ASA, Equinor Source: FactSet, weekly change 27/11/23-1/12/23 Oil extended declines, closing out a sixth straight weekly drop, as the OPEC+ output cuts announced Thursday failed to dispel the market’s gloom over swelling global supplies. West Texas Intermed
Companies: BOIL POS TRIN 88E
On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit
Companies: Pan African Resources PLC
Companies: HHR CLBS SND
Cameroon: Ready for the Rig
Companies: Tower Resources plc
We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.
Companies: Trident Royalties Plc
Hartshead has secured a funding solution with partner Rockrose Energy to fund 100% of the Phase I development costs. Under the agreement, Hartshead has the option to exchange an additional 20% licence interest for an uncapped free carry, thereby covering the total cost of the Phase I development project (financing backstop). Importantly, Hartshead maintains at its election the option not to proceed with the RockRose financing solution, and introduce other financing solutions (eg project debt, pr
Companies: Hartshead Resources NL
Companies: EVN AYM SOLG SAV CNR RBW ATM GSCU CGH
Companies: PNRL AYM RIO THR WSBN GMET TGR
Southern Energy delivered solid 3Q results with the focus of attention now turned towards the completion of 4 drilled uncompleted wells (“DUCs”). We see our investment thesis for Southern Energy – premised on the scale, location, quality, deliverability, low-cost nature of the company's Gwinville gas field in Mississippi, USA – very much strengthening based on our structural commodity price outlook and our growing confidence in the highly prolific Gwinville gas field, sharpening our interest in
Companies: Southern Energy Corp.
The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.
Companies: TLOU PTAL HTG ENW ITM BLVN RKH HBR UJO GMS JOG MATD CEG GENL AXL
Jersey Oil & Gas, Serica Energy, Trinity Exploration & Production, Longboat Energy, Ithaca Energy, Neptune Energy, Pantheon Resources, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Kufpec, ORLEN.
Companies: TRIN LBE JOG
Thor today announces the final downhole gamma results for the reverse circulation drill programme undertaken at the Wedding Bell and Radium Mountain projects in the USA. Downhole gamma readings are a commonly used proxy for physical uranium assays.
Companies: Thor Energy Plc
DEC’s Q3/23 trading update was in line with expectations as the company continued to deliver despite further commodity price headwinds. The Q3/23 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 52% (H1/23: 52%) reflects the quality of DEC’s asset base and its ability to efficiently manage every aspect of its operations. Average net daily production in Q3/23 was 134Mboepd (H1/23: 142Mboepd), with exit rate production of 134.4Mboepd. DEC has maintained its dividend at US$0.04375 per share. Since its IPO in 2017, DEC ha
Companies: Diversified Energy Company PLC