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We are discontinuing coverage on BlackPearl Resources following the company’s shareholders approval to combine with International Petroleum Corp. (TSX:IPCO), acquiring all of the issued and outstanding shares on the basis of 0.22x IPC shares for each BlackPearl share. Accordingly, all prior research ratings, price targets and earnings estimates must no longer be relied upon.
Companies: BlackPearl Resources
BlackPearl announced first quarter financial and operating results that modestly trailed our outlook and consensus, though view this as nonevent in light of dynamicism in the heavy differential quote and completion of its Onion Lake Phase II construction effort. Onion Lake Phase II is on stream and turned over to first oil. There are no changes to its 2018e production or capex outlook. Our 2018e and 2019e CFPS outlook is down 5% largely driven by updating its hedge book in our estimates. Alig
The stocks on the GMP FirstEnergy Best Ideas List represent our highest conviction BUY recommendations with an expected return of 20% or more over the next 12 months. The investment thesis for each name on the list is laid out in this report.
Companies: CNQ AAV TNZ PXX KEL RRX SPE WCP PXT SES PPL
3Q16e WTI prices look set to average ~US$44.50/bbl vs. our $50.00/bbl prior estimate. We have also reduced our 4Q16e WTI forecasts by US$5.00 to US$50.00/ bbl, but left our 2016e+ oil & gas price deck largely unchanged. For the second time in three months we are increasing our forecasts for Canadian refined product premiums relative to New York Harbor.
Companies: CVE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH MEG PXX
Impact: Positive. Formal regulatory approval for BlackPearl's Blackrod project adds a significant resource and value wedge to the Company's development portfolio; however, with an estimated $800 mm in capital required for the first 20,000 bbl/d Phase of the project, a considerable corporate financing funding gap remains to be closed, potentially with the help of a financial JV partner.
BlackPearl reported second quarter financial and operating results that were well ahead of our forecast and consensus, demonstrative of an ability to achieve success on the principal factor we are focused on – lower costs. While the market will likely remain observant until confirmation of a sustained crude oil price recovery or fundamental change in the ability to accelerate its growth prospects by alleviating a capital constrained position, we remain constructive on the stock and would continu
The Fort McMurray wildfire took more than 1.2 mmbbl/d of oilsands production offline at one point, disrupting operations of many companies within our coverage universe. We expect production estimates for many oilsands producers (HSE, IMO, SU, ATH) to be more varied than usual with more variables to account for than usual (downtime, ramp up, sales volumes). SCO prices were boosted by the wildfire, with CNQ best positioned to have taken advantage, given the upgrader at Horizon was only mildly aff
Macros: Commodities - Energy
Impact: Positive. BlackPearl's revised borrowing base of $117.5 mm remains sufficient to execute the Company's 2016e capital spending budget of $10-$15 mm with our outlook expecting its debt levels to continue to fall from current levels of $80 mm (or ~0.68x its current capacity) throughout the balance of the year. Operationally, BlackPearl's ramp-up at its thermal Onion Lake project continues to look strong having reached the project capacity of 6,000 bbl/d in June (on schedule) and then surpas
BlackPearl provided a status update surrounding its Onion Lake Thermal SAGD project (Phase I), noting current rates of 6,300 bbl/d which is above its nameplate capacity of 6,000 bbl/d and is obviously positive.Additionally, its revised LOC was taken down to $117.5 mm from $150 mm which should not be a surprise to the market in light of WCS price deterioration since last review.There are no changes to our forecasts. We continue to offer an Outperform ranking on a $1.55/sh 12-month target price.
Commodity Price Update – Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands
BlackPearl reported first quarter financial and operating results that were well ahead of forecast, demonstrative of an ability to achieve success on the principal factor we are focused on – lower costs. Our 2016e and 2017e CFPS forecasts are up significantly on receipt of this report. The market has taken the stock up significantly since we last proclaimed that it was poised to be phoenix rising from the ashes on price recovery, but we do not believe it is over yet. We would buy this stock toda
We are updating our estimates to reflect FirstEnergy’s updated price deck for oil, natural gas, and refining crack spreads.
BlackPearl reported fourth quarter nancial and opera ng results that markedly bested our es mates, highlighted by CFPS 29% ahead of forecast, net debt 10% lower, and be er than an cipated PDP FD&A costs. While the outlook remains tenuous at current strip prices with D/CF of ~6.7x run-rate, we iden fy management’s recogni on of the current situa on and adaptability in this por on of the cycle. Valida on that the rst phase of its Onion Lake thermal project is working is an important aspect here,
With the reduction to our oil price deck (see our commodities analyst Martin King’s note), we have made significant reductions to our target prices for this group of companies. Notably, we have taken our rankings for Imperial Oil and Suncor to Underperform, as we believe the equity valuations for these two companies are implying much, much higher oil prices, AND much better refining margins, going forward, than we believe is reasonable to assume at this time. We do not believe these two stocks w
4Q15 results will be ugly, but 1Q16e is obviously shaping up to be much worse. We anticipate further capex budget reductions and have moved capex estimates below current guidance for several companies. Bitumen prices are single digits. If they go negative we suspect some bitumen producing projects could curtail output at least modestly. Liquidity Analysis: futures strip pricing would imply massive debt increases in 2016e-2017e for most names, but most names have sufficient liquidity arranged. We
Companies: CVE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH MEG PXX COS
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BlackPearl Resources.
We currently have 24 research reports from 1
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
Jubilee today reported its unaudited operational results for the six-month period to 30 June 2022. Performance during the period has been boosted with the delivery of significant investment programmes (totalling c. £58m) at the Inyoni Platinum Group Metals (PGM) operation in South Africa and the Roan copper concentrator in Zambia.
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Diversified has announced the acquisition of a portfolio of high-margin, low-decline upstream assets and related facilities in Oklahoma and Texas from ConocoPhillips for an estimated net purchase price of US$210m – an attractive 2.5x multiple based on an Adjusted EBITDA of US$82m. At US$210m, the net purchase price approximates a PV17 PDP valuation at the effective date and represents an attractive discount of c29% to the estimated PV10 using the NYMEX strip as at 25 July 2022. The assets includ
Companies: Diversified Energy Company PLC
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
Pantheon Resources announced that it has commenced drilling operations for the Alkaid#2 well.
WHI View: We are most excited about the Alkaid #2 well because its intention, amongst other things, is to i) test the depth of the Alkaid structure, which we believe is likely to increase the known scale of the resource, and ii) to production test a horizontal, multi-stage fractured well drilled into the formation – the first of its kind drilled by Pantheon in Alaska.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Sylvania Platinum is a safe, low-cost surface platinum group metals (PGM) dump re-treatment company operating in South Africa (SA). Its low-cost operations met production challenges in the first three quarters of FY22, but in Q4 recorded near-record production. However, PGM basket price pressures due to global recessionary concerns, and a modest tick-up in cost inflation, have resulted in a 12.5% reduction in our FY22 EPS forecast. Sylvania is still operating at a healthy margin of 41% on our FY
Companies: Sylvania Platinum Ltd.
AfriTin has provided an update on the Phase 1 expansion project, with major construction work now complete. Commissioning of the expanded crushing and screening circuits (“dry plant”) has commenced, to be followed by the ramp up of the concentrator (“wet plant”) during September. Current output is expected to expand progressively over four months. At the same time, the Company is fast-tracking the separation of lithium and tantalum by-products, with detailed engineering on pilot plants underway
Companies: AfriTin Mining Ltd.
Hannam & Partners
The corner has been well and truly turned
Companies: Gulf Marine Services PLC
Dish of the day
No joiners today.
Leavers: No leavers today.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?**
Unigel Group, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Unigel Group is a pioneer in the field of thixotropic gels for the fibre optic cable industry. The Company is also a supplier of laminated steel tapes to the fibre optic cable industry in the US. Thixotropic gels and laminated steel tapes are essential components to the rapidly growing global fibre optic cable market. The Group exports
Companies: UJO FAB HAT HZM SYM TRAC
Companies: Hurricane Energy Plc
Condor Gold (“CNR”) has announced final metallurgical test results as it progresses towards completion of the full La India Feasibility Study (“FS”). The results show an average recovery rate of 92.6% is achievable over the life of mine (“LoM”). Net of losses in the plant, CNR has confirmed it will apply a 91% assumed recovery rate within the upcoming FS, consistent with the 2014 PFS and Oct’21 updated PEA. This an important tick in the box as CNR advances the project towards development, with t
Companies: Condor Gold plc
Companies: Thungela Resources Limited
Companies: Atlantic Lithium Limited.
Dish of the day
No joiners today.
No leavers today.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Unigel Group, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Unigel Group is a pioneer in the field of thixotropic gels for the fibre optic cable industry. The Company is also a supplier of laminated steel tapes to the fibre optic cable industry in the US. Thixotropic gels and laminated steel tapes are essential components to the rapidly growing global fibre optic cable market. The Group export
Companies: SDI FUL PURP OSI IXI BSE BRSD ATM