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Bonavista reported first quarter results which were in line to modestly behind, as production of 66,937 boe/d matched consensus expectations, and FFO of $58.2mm trailed the Street’s call of $61mm.
Companies: Bonavista Energy
Bonavista reported 4Q18 production of 68,011 boe/d, in line with the survey consensus of ~68,270 boe/d and GMPFE’s prior outlook of 68,391 boe/d.
Bonavista reported 3Q18 production of 68,036 boe/d, in line with the survey consensus of 67,680 boe/d and GMPFE’s prior outlook of 67,878 boe/d. Funds flow of $63.7 mm, or $0.24/sh, split GMPFE and consensus estimates of $65 mm ($0.25/sh) and $61 mm ($0.23/sh), respectively.
Bonavista reported 2Q18 production of 68,214 boe/d, relatively in line with the survey consensus of 69,013 boe/d and GMP FE’s outlook of 67,981 boe/d.
Volumes for 4Q17 were previously released at 74,799 boe/d, while cash flow during the same period came in at $86.1 mm, or $0.33/sh, which is slightly higher than the prior consensus view of $0.32/sh. In an effort to focus on debt repayment, Management has reduced its 2018 guidance to a $135 - $155 mm capital program that will deliver volumes between 69,000 to 71,000 boe/d. Drilling will be focused on the company’s most liquids-rich plays, most notably in Strachan (Glauconite) and Morningside (F
Impact: Positive. Bonavista's swap boosts corporate production over 10% compared to 2Q16e levels and adds drill ready inventory within its key play types while consolidating its core land holdings in exchange for its noncore Montney Blueberry asset that was previously part of the Company's longer term development strategy.
Bonavista reported second quarter results with production and cash flow in line with consensus, although ahead of our thinking with cash flow benefiting from lower royalties and controllable cash costs. With E&D spending representing only 38% of funds flow in the period, Bonavista was able to direct ~$34 mm to debt repayment with net debt exiting the year forecasted to decrease 25% y/y. The Company has increased its 2016e E&D spending by ~12% with average annual production unchanged, although is
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVETF YO
Coming off restriction from our participation in the Company’s most recent equity financing, whereby the Company issued ~34.3 mm common shares at a price of $3.35 per common share for gross proceeds of $115 mm, we update our estimates. Apart from incorporating the financing we have not made any changes to our estimates ahead of our upcoming commodity price update. Recall, the Company’s guidance includes net capital spending of $140-$145 mm and average annual production of 67,500 boe/d, which tak
Bonavista reported first quarter results with cash flow ahead of expectations on the back of higher realized pricing and operating costs that continue to trend lower. While 2016e capital expenditures remain unchanged, in response to current natural gas prices, Management has deferred some spending to the back half of the year while also shutting in ~2,900 boe/d of natural gas production resulting in a minor downdraft to annual production guidance. With a forecasted payout ratio below 70%, Manage
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT TXP VET WCP BNE CJ KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ BXO CKE GXE IKM MQL SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), roughly characterized by near term lifts in crude oil prices concurrent with a reduction to portended 2016e and 2017e natural gas pricing outlooks. While there are a few ranking changes on mostly non-material moves to valuations, implied returns within the group on the whole are far less than postulated only a few months ago, reflective of resurgent equity pric
Companies: AAV ARX BNP CPG PEY VET BNE CJ CR DEE KEL NVA PPY TVE
Fourth quarter produc on came as no surprise as it was previously disclosed with the year-end reserves release, while cash ow beat on lower cash costs. In response to further weakness in commodity prices, Management has reduced 2016e guidance for the second me this year in an e ort to protect the balance sheet, while also cu ng the dividend by 67%. We have updated our forecast leading to improved sustainability measures in 2016e and have maintained both our Outperform ranking and $3.00 per sha
Impact: Neutral to slightly positive. Despite lower capital spending and production guidance being offered in 2016, we view retrenchment as the preferable strategy at this stage versus unnecessarily drilling top tier inventory in a weak gas price environment.
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Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market
Companies: Zenith Energy Ltd.
Alternative Resource Capital
Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems
Companies: Chariot Limited
AfriTin Mining (“ATM”) has announced another record-breaking quarter from Uis Phase 1. Tin production increased 13% QoQ to 152t for the three months to May (Q1 FY’23), supported by record recoveries, which along with cost initiatives drove a 16% improvement in All-In Sustaining Costs. The strong performance continues to support growth projects including incorporation of petalite lithium and tantalum by-products, upon which AfriTin recently announced positive drilling and metallurgical test work
Companies: AfriTin Mining Ltd.
Hannam & Partners
EQTEC has reached a key milestone in its Southport energy from waste project with the appointment of Anaergia as EPC and O&M partner. This is a complex project using multiple waste treatment solutions and we see EQTEC’s inclusion as a demonstration that it’s technology can combine with these to create an optimal outcome.
Companies: EQTEC PLC
RCS-1 flow testing results
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th
Companies: Wentworth Resources PLC
• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened.
• As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time.
• PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Wentworth has announced the acquisition of a 25% non-operated working interest in the Ruvuma PSA from Scirocco Energy for an initial consideration of US$3m plus contingent payments of up to US$13m. The consideration is structured to ensure that the majority is only paid in a success case, providing Wentworth with a low-cost entry point into a high growth opportunity. The transaction has the potential to nearly double the Company's production by 2026 and add over 190Bcf of 2P reserves on a Final
• 2022 YTD gross production was 92 mmcf/d, ahead of our expectations of 89 mmcf/d for 1H22.
• The FY22 production guidance remains unchanged at 75-85 mmcf/d. It looks very conservative in our view.
• The company currently holds US$26 mm in cash and no debt. This is in line with our expectations.
• TPDC continues to be current with regards to receivables.
• We re-iterate our target price of £0.45 per share.
Steady growth and dividend
Our Core NAV for the company based on its 2P reserves only i