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Chinook reported 2Q19 financial and operational results that were largely in line, though can be summarized through the negative $1.7 mm in funds flow reported (CFPS -$0.01 vs. GMPFE -$0.01 vs. consensus $0.00). The corporation estimates total unbridled standing capability of ~4,000 boe/d, though current output is zero, as Chinook is further touched up by the Brookfield (Enbridge) McMahon plant outage, with 100% of its output offline since July 30th (to resume August 13th).
Companies: CHINOOK ENERGY
Chinook reported 1Q19 financial and operational results that were largely in line (CFPS $0.00 vs. GMPFE $0.00 vs. consensus $0.00).
Chinook reported 4Q18 financial and operational results that were largely in line (CFPS $0.00 vs. GMPFE $0.00 vs. Consensus $0.00).
Chinook reported 3Q18 financial and operating results which were mixed, with production of 4,807 boe/d eclipsing both GMPFE and consensus estimates by >6%, while CFO of ~$2.3 mm split GMPFE and consensus estimates of $2.4 mm and $2.2 mm, respectively.
2Q18 was quiet for Chinook, with financial and operating results largely in line with consensus expectations. Volumes during the quarter were negatively impacted by maintenance issues on Enbridge’s Oak 16” gathering line, resulting in 3rd party capacity constraints. If not for this restriction, 2Q18 volumes are estimated to have been 20% higher (~5,300 boe/d), in line with GMPFE’s prior forecast of 5,025 boe/d.
Chinook reported 4Q17 financial and operating results which were in line with both GMP FE and consensus expectations. Chinook commissioned the +25 mmcf/d expansion of its Birley/Umbach compressor station in 4Q17 bringing total capacity to 50 mmcf/d. Once 3 rd party restrictions ease in April 2018e, the company will finally have capacity to produce from all 13.0 (11.2 net) wells in the region. There are no further updates with regards to formal 2018e guidance at this juncture, as the company co
Recall, during 2Q17 Chinook was drilling 4 (3.63 net) wells at its Birley/Umbach NE BC property. In this update, Chinook announced that the drilling and completion costs per well were expected to approximate ~$4.24mm/well, slightly ahead of our type curve drilling and completion costs of $3.225mm/well.
Chinook announced second quarter financial and operating results that were in line with expectations. In light of the Company’s strategic alternatives process, we reiterate our Speculative Buy ranking and $0.50 per share target price on the stock though aim to provide a more fulsome review with potential changes to the sum of the parts components within our NAV methodology.
Impact: Slightly negative. Second quarter results lagged our forecasts, though were largely overshadowed by the closing of a material asset rationalization late in the quarter.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVETF YO
Chinook announced a divestiture of its non-Montney assets to Tournament Exploration for a ~70% shareholding in a recapitalized entity, the stock of which will eventually be dividended out to Chinook shareholders. Most importantly, this now isolates Chinook as a pure Montney levered growth vehicle, characterized by production of ~2,675 boe/d (19% oil & NGLs), 18.3 mmboe 2P of reserves, and 175 (122 net) sections of Montney prospective lands, coupled with the preservation of a strong balance she
Impact: Positive. The transaction supports the broader corporate strategy of a Montney focused growth vehicle at Birley/Umbach and Gold Creek. We expect the Montney pure play entity ahead to look compelling in terms of resource leverage within an NAV-rich premise, though will not trade at a discount valuation over the next 18 months.
Impact: Neutral to slightly positive. We view the $7.5 mm transaction as not overly material, though a potential positive data point in terms of the current state of the broader A&D environment, which would be notionally positive given Chinooks near-term rationalization stratagem.
Chinook released first quarter financial results that were strong from a volume perspective though trailed our expectations financially.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
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Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market
Companies: Zenith Energy Ltd.
Alternative Resource Capital
We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems
Companies: Chariot Limited
RCS-1 flow testing results
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
EQTEC has reached a key milestone in its Southport energy from waste project with the appointment of Anaergia as EPC and O&M partner. This is a complex project using multiple waste treatment solutions and we see EQTEC’s inclusion as a demonstration that it’s technology can combine with these to create an optimal outcome.
Companies: EQTEC PLC
Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th
Companies: Wentworth Resources PLC
• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened.
• As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time.
• PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Wentworth has announced the acquisition of a 25% non-operated working interest in the Ruvuma PSA from Scirocco Energy for an initial consideration of US$3m plus contingent payments of up to US$13m. The consideration is structured to ensure that the majority is only paid in a success case, providing Wentworth with a low-cost entry point into a high growth opportunity. The transaction has the potential to nearly double the Company's production by 2026 and add over 190Bcf of 2P reserves on a Final
Completion of commissioning of Kiln 3 at Vanchem last month keeps Bushveld on track to end 2022 with a sustainable production run rate of 5,000-5,400t V pa, a solid platform from which to refocus on longer-term growth. Fully utilising the vast array of processing infrastructure at Vanchem to treat feed from an expanded mining and ore concentration operation at Vametco makes a lot of sense given the fixed component of costs at the former and the large mineral resource at the latter. Bushveld’s re
Companies: Bushveld Minerals Limited
• 2022 YTD gross production was 92 mmcf/d, ahead of our expectations of 89 mmcf/d for 1H22.
• The FY22 production guidance remains unchanged at 75-85 mmcf/d. It looks very conservative in our view.
• The company currently holds US$26 mm in cash and no debt. This is in line with our expectations.
• TPDC continues to be current with regards to receivables.
• We re-iterate our target price of £0.45 per share.
Steady growth and dividend
Our Core NAV for the company based on its 2P reserves only i
Savannah, which operates the Barroso lithium mine project in Portugal, reports today the results of its locked cycle test to determine optimal flotation reagents to confirm lithium recoveries and spodumene concentrate grades. Savannah is aiming for a 5.5%Li2O concentrate grade with a near 80% recovery. The reported work confirms that these should be possible and that in larger scale, bulk testing these parameters may improve. The work also highlights that there are still optimisations to be h
Companies: Savannah Resources Plc