Stifel FirstEnergy Morning Research Package

CES Energy Solutions(CEU-TSX); BUY, C$3.75― After yesterday’s management update, we still think the stock is a double | Gear Energy (GXE-TSX); HOLD, C$0.55 ― Reports 4Q19 results and 2019 reserve book | Inter Pipeline (IPL-TSX); HOLD, C$21.00― FLASH: 4Q19 results slightly below Street | Kelt Exploration (KEL-TSX); BUY, C$5.65― Reports 2019 reserve book | Ovintiv (OVV-NYSE); BUY, C$20.00― OVV –FCF outlook and capital efficiencies improving | Peyto Exploration & Development(PEY-TSX); HOLD, C$4.35―

Reports 3Q19 results, firms up 2020e outlook

Kelt reported third quarter financial and operating results below expectations with AFFO below market expectations with CFPS $0.21 vs. GMPFE $0.24 vs. consensus $0.26). Near term market growth estimates will be coming down given delays at Wembley/Pipestone. We have walked down 4Q19e from our prior view of ~34,275 boe/d which was already well below the street at ~39,500 boe/d which is untenable from here. We have revised our forecast upwards to capture a more ambitious capital investment profile

Reports 2Q19 results, inks deal with AltaGas

Kelt reported second quarter financial and operating results in line with our forecast, generating AFFO of $45.5 mm, or $0.25/sh, though lagging consensus which was in the process of trending down over the last month (GMPFE CFPS $0.24/sh vs. consensus $0.28/sh). • There are no changes to our growth forecast; we were previously running below 2019e volume guidance. E&D capex is up, though, based on the nature of its arrangement with AltaGas, there is no influence on its net debt projections.

Forecast update

For 2019e, we have updated our estimates to reflect the revised project timing and production adds from Kelt’s corporate presentation for February 2019. Formally annual guidance remains unchanged at this juncture, however, with the company’s first 6x well pad at Inga coming on stream in 2Q19e, we have reduced our 1H19e production estimates to ~30,500 boe/d (down from ~32,500 boe/d prior) while leaving our 2H19e outlook effectively unchanged.

Reports 3Q18, provides preliminary 2019e guidance

In 3Q18, Kelt reported CFPS of $0.25/sh below both our estimate of $0.28/sh and consensus estimate of $0.27/sh on lower than anticipated oil/liquids volumes. Additionally, the company provided revised guidance for 2018e and preliminary guidance for 2019e that, given its previously discussed resequencing of capital spending, effectively results in a shift of capital spending into 2018e and modest reduction to our oil/liquids forecasts, although aggregate corporate volumes are little changed. All

Strong quarter, 2018 budget expansion

1Q18 production of 26,978 boe/d (44% liquids) compared to GMPFE estimate of 26,167 boe/d. This represented an 8% increase QoQ. The company has made considerable strides in increasing its liquids weighting to 44% in 1Q18, up from 37% in 4Q16. CFPS (f.d.) in the quarter of $0.25/shr was slightly above our estimate of $0.23/shr. Higher realized liquids pricing drove improved operating netbacks in 1Q18 of $20.47/boe, up 23% YoY. At quarter-end, Kelt had net debt of $248mm (incl. its $75mm convert

Strong reserve report driven by liquids growth

Reserves were up 10% on a PDP basis (8% per share DDA) to 37.9 mmboe, up 23% on a 1P basis (21% per share DDA) to 133.0 mmboe and up 21% on a 2P basis (19% per share DDA) to 235.6 mmboe. This is despite the fact that Kelt sold its Karr property in early 2017 for proceeds of $100 million. The largest driver of 2P reserve growth was the increased Oil & NGL additions representing growth of 42% y/y. This moves 2P liquids weighting from 37% as of 2016YE to 43% as of 2017YE. 2P BT NPV10 increased by 2

Quality available at deep discounts amidst overt sector pessimism

The stocks on the GMP FirstEnergy Best Ideas List represent our highest conviction BUY recommendations with an expected return of 20% or more over the next 12 months. The investment thesis for each name on the list is laid out in this report.

3Q17 results; 2018 growth focused budget

 Third quarter production of 22,510 boe/d (43% liquids) was in line with GMPFE estimate of 22,517 boe/d (44% liquids) and street estimates of 22,630 boe/d. The company had given quarterly guidance in its September slide deck so production levels were effectively prereleased. This was up 9% QoQ as 2Q production had been impacted by multiple factors such as weather and pipeline outages.  Cash flow in the quarter of $23.0 mm ($0.13/shr dil.) was slightly ahead of GMPFE estimate of $19.5 mm ($0.1

Reports Second Quarter Results, Further Expansion of Inga/ Fireweed Montney Footprint

Kelt released second quarter financial and operating results that exceeded our cash generation expectations. The Company will reallocate capital back to Alberta now that Alberta MRF royalty considerations accommodate renewed activity immediately, though resultant deliverability will not largely materialize until 2017e. A lower cost development premise should materialize in 2017e with a drilling program oriented towards penetrations on existing pads at that time. Our 12-month target price is elev

ANNOUNCES 2Q16 FINANCIAL AND OPERATING RESULTS

Impact: Positive, with cash flow coming in ahead of our estimate on significantly reduced controllable cash costs.

2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev

ANNOUNCES REVISED BORROWING BASE OF $185 MM

Impact: Neutral. The Company's reduced credit facility is within our expectations based on current commodity prices. Kelt is currently drawn 63% on the revised amount and we estimate the Company exiting 2016 with bank debt plus working capital deficiency of $143 mm reflecting ~77% of the facility.

Kelt Reports First Quarter, Updates 2016e Guidance

Kelt released first quarter financial and operating results that exceeded our production forecasts though trailed financially.

REPORTS 1Q16 RESULTS

Neutral to slightly negative as a result of lower than anticipated cash flow in the quarter.

Fully funded for range of activities - operational and key third party evaluations

Andrada Mining: Lithium driving value after “numerous unsolicited approaches” to accelerate Uis development

Andrada Mining (“ATM”) has announced several unsolicited approaches from international entities to accelerate production from its lithium portfolio through a potential strategic partnership in its Uis project in Namibia. A global investment bank has been appointed to provide a structured assessment of potential partners based on financial and technical merits. After the expansion of the Phase 1 tin operation in 2022, Uis achieved record quarterly tin concentrate output for the three months to Fe

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 15 May 2023

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 58p) - US$7m revolving loan facility

Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG LN) - Full year 2022 results

JOG has released its full year 2022 results. These report a net cash holding of £6.6m which, alongside upcoming payments under the GBA farm out deal with NEO Energy, gives JOG a very strong funding base. The statement also reiterates the company’s focus on progressing its GBA project, including approval and closure of the farm out, progression of the Buchan development plan, likely a second farm out, and then FID in H1 2024. We expect this to represent a series of catalysts over the coming month

Cenkos: Diversified Energy Company Plc -- 54% Cash Margin & 37% Annualised FCF Yield

Despite the challenging commodity price environment, Diversified has announced a strong set of Q1/23 results. Cash margins and annualised free cash flow yield increased to c54% and c37% respectively, as a result of lower per-unit expenses and the Company's robust hedging portfolio. Diversified's hedging strategy continues to advantageously position the Company, with remaining 2023 average natural gas hedge floors of US$3.79/Mcf at a 35% premium to current strip pricing, and a 55% premium to the

Pantheon Resources (PANR) – Corporate – Successful $22m Placing

Pantheon Resources announced the closing of a $22m significantly oversubscribed placing and subscription priced at 17p. The use of proceeds will include: i) funding the flow testing of the Alkaid#2 well from the SMD horizon, ii) funding a competent person report to be prepared by Netherland Sewell and Associates covering the Theta West and Alkaid oil discoveries, iii) funding the preparation of dynamic models and field development models to be prepared by SLB (formerly Schlumberger) and iv) fund

The time has come!

In the next six months, Aminex (AEX) will embark on a development programme that will see the company become a producer and free cash flow (FCF) generator. Between drilling the new Chikumbi-1 well (CH-1), re-entering the existing two wells, processing of the new 3D seismic, signing a GSA, and reaching first gas, there will be plenty of milestones in 2023 to, in our view, gradually “guide” the market towards recognising a full value for the targeted initial 60mmscf/d gross production in late 2023

LIBERUM: Caledonia Mining* - The worst should be behind us; onwards and upwards from here

Successful first test at CN-1

LIBERUM: Helium One* - >60% increase in Helium resource

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 23 Feb 23

23rd May 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Research: Sector Review: Critical minerals for UK - mining and battery recycling: 09-05-2023

Virgin mining: Energy security and decarbonisation are driving the race in the sourcing of critical minerals from the natural world. This has contributed to the revival of exploration activities in the US, Europe and to a lesser degree the UK. For example, the global identified lithium resources increased from 40m tonnes in 2015 (the Paris Agreement year) to 97m tonnes in 2023, at a CAGR of 12%, according to the U.S. Geological Survey data. For example, there was no identified lithium resources

Reserves at Shell: Shooting itself in the foot?

Hangover from the noughties debacle still seems to weigh Is Shell''s seeming conservatism on SEC reserves accounting effectively shooting itself in the foot? After two weeks of talking with investors, several of whom expressed concern that Shell''s lowly reserves life would require it to spend beyond guidance to sustain its hydrocarbon business, our impression is, most likely, yes. Push into the details and time and time again, all too apparent in our view is that when it comes to reserves accou

Anglo Asian Mining* - FY22 reflect lower gold production, FY23 guidance reiterated and 8c dividend maintained