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Paramount announced the sale of ~500 net sections of land and ~8,500 boe/d of production (~60% natural gas) to Bonavista Energy for cash proceeds of ~$55 mm ($53.3 mm net of transaction costs).
Companies: Paramount Resources Ltd. Class A
Paramount reported 2Q19 results which were a mixed bag, as inline production of 81,793 boe/d was offset by a minor funds flow miss (POU $54.2 mm vs. consensus $59.0 mm) and a modest capital overspend, as a $100 mm program topped the street at $90 mm. 2019e guidance has been reaffirmed, with the company continuing to envision full year volumes of 81,000-85,000 boe/d, on base capital investment of $350 mm. Note, this is inclusive of a significant 4Q19 volume ramp, with the company currently guidin
Paramount is selling its Karr 6-18 natural gas facility to CSV Midstream Solutions for $255 mm, in addition to being reimbursed $75 mm for the D2 expansion costs accrued to date, and a further $140 mm to complete the expansion, for a total transaction value of $470 mm
Paramount reported 1Q19 results which were in line to ahead, as production of ~81,296 boe/d overlaid the survey average of 81,217 boe/d, while FFO of $100.5 mm ($0.77/sh) crowned consensus at $84 mm ($0.64/sh).
Paramount‘s 4Q18 production of ~84,500 boe/d was slightly higher than GMPFE estimates of ~83,700 boe/d, while FFO of $46 mm, or $0.35/sh, topped our $0.33/sh and consensus at $0.34/sh.
Paramount‘s 3Q18 production of 80,471 boe/d trailed GMP FE estimates of 85,141 boe/d and consensus at 83,910 boe/d due to turnarounds, sale of Resthaven assets, and facility start-up delays. Cash flow also came in lower than expected at $55.6 mm or $0.42/sh versus our view of $63.4 mm ($0.48/sh) and the “street” at $0.48/sh. 2018 production guidance has been reduced to 85,000-86,000 boe/d, which implies 4Q18e volumes of 81,000 -85,000 boe/d, a large departure from the ~95,000 boe/d we were car
Paramount has entered into an agreement to sell its Resthaven/Jayar assets in a cash and share deal worth $340 mm, comprised of $170 mm in cash and 85 mm shares (plus 8.5 mm warrants) of Strath Resources (valued at $170 mm). Paramount will own 16% stake in Strath Resources and Mr. Jim Riddell will join the company’s Board of Directors. The sale included 5,300 boe/d (36% liquids) of largely Montney and Cretaceous production, 8.1 mmboe 2P reserves, and 201 (152 net) sections of land. With this
Paramount monetized 74% of its Seven Generations equity stake for gross proceeds of $735 mm (weighted average sale price of $29.76/share). The first well result from its re-focused efforts at Karr yields a solid IP rate averaging 7.0 mmcf/d plus 1,288 bbl/d of liquids (2,454 boe/d) over the initial 16 days of production. With a great initial results and bountiful cash on hand, the Company will be drilling a total of 25 wells at Karr over the next 9-12 months. Based on accelerated capital spendin
Impact: Positive. The monetization of Paramount's VII shares lays the foundation for an accelerated growth profile over the next 12-18 months that would take corporate production significantly over our current 16,000 boe/d 2017e exit target. Further, while we remain cautious initial test results, preliminary rates from Paramount's first Karr-Gold Creek extended reach well appear to be in-line to slightly ahead of our type curve and reasonably consistent with offsetting competitor well results.
Disappointing 2Q16 volumes and higher than expected cash costs led to cash flow that was surprisingly negative during the quarter, missing both FirstEnergy and consensus expectations. With the one-time operating items in 2Q16 and Musreau commitments expected to be out of the way when the Musreau sale is successfully closed around August 18th, our forward outlook is little changed. Updating our RENAV methodology for the proforma entity leads us to an increased value which is the principal driver
Impact: Negative. While the Company has subsequently divested its primary asset at Musreau, the softer than expected production and cash flow in 2Q16 is likely to surprise the market as we await the next operational catalysts from its Karr/Gold Creek Drilling program later in 3Q16.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVETF YO
Paramount disposed of its core asset at Musreau/Kakwa for $1.9 billion to Seven Generations.As a result, near-term liquidity concerns have been quelled with greatly reduced debt levels and strategic investments now worth in excess of $1.2 billion.Paramount continues to retain a diverse portfolio of assets in attractive, Montneycentric, areas, which we estimate helps present a RENAV out look of ~$12.70 per share ($10.00 per share, forward strip).Our target price increases to $11.50 per share (pre
Impact: Positive. Paramount disposed of a core asset at an attractive valuation. As result, near-term liquidity concerns have been quelled as the Company's stock portfolio now breaches $1 billion. Paramount still retains a diverse portfolio of assets in attractive areas, though we'd note that Paramount will be developing these areas from a fairly junior position, in terms of facilities and well learnings, and will need to consider economics on a full-cycle basis.
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this
Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Paramount Resources Ltd. Class A.
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Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market
Companies: Zenith Energy Ltd.
Alternative Resource Capital
Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems
Companies: Chariot Limited
AfriTin Mining (“ATM”) has announced another record-breaking quarter from Uis Phase 1. Tin production increased 13% QoQ to 152t for the three months to May (Q1 FY’23), supported by record recoveries, which along with cost initiatives drove a 16% improvement in All-In Sustaining Costs. The strong performance continues to support growth projects including incorporation of petalite lithium and tantalum by-products, upon which AfriTin recently announced positive drilling and metallurgical test work
Companies: AfriTin Mining Ltd.
Hannam & Partners
RCS-1 flow testing results
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
EQTEC has reached a key milestone in its Southport energy from waste project with the appointment of Anaergia as EPC and O&M partner. This is a complex project using multiple waste treatment solutions and we see EQTEC’s inclusion as a demonstration that it’s technology can combine with these to create an optimal outcome.
Companies: EQTEC PLC
Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th
Companies: Wentworth Resources PLC
• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened.
• As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time.
• PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Wentworth has announced the acquisition of a 25% non-operated working interest in the Ruvuma PSA from Scirocco Energy for an initial consideration of US$3m plus contingent payments of up to US$13m. The consideration is structured to ensure that the majority is only paid in a success case, providing Wentworth with a low-cost entry point into a high growth opportunity. The transaction has the potential to nearly double the Company's production by 2026 and add over 190Bcf of 2P reserves on a Final
• 2022 YTD gross production was 92 mmcf/d, ahead of our expectations of 89 mmcf/d for 1H22.
• The FY22 production guidance remains unchanged at 75-85 mmcf/d. It looks very conservative in our view.
• The company currently holds US$26 mm in cash and no debt. This is in line with our expectations.
• TPDC continues to be current with regards to receivables.
• We re-iterate our target price of £0.45 per share.
Steady growth and dividend
Our Core NAV for the company based on its 2P reserves only i