Discontinuing Coverage

We are discontinuing coverage on Raging River Exploration Inc. due to its acquisition by Baytex Energy Corp.1 (BUY, $8.00/sh target price). Accordingly, all prior research ratings, price targets, and earnings estimates must no longer be relied upon.

Quality available at deep discounts amidst overt sector pessimism

The stocks on the GMP FirstEnergy Best Ideas List represent our highest conviction BUY recommendations with an expected return of 20% or more over the next 12 months. The investment thesis for each name on the list is laid out in this report.

Reports Solid Second Quarter Results

Raging River reported second quarter financial and operating results that were in line with our estimates, highlighted by positive earnings generation in the period, illustrative of a highly economic top line revenue and enviable cost structure, coupled with affirmation of a disciplined acquisition strategy since inception. There are essentially zero changes to our forward outlook. We reiterate a $13.50/sh 12-month target price and Outperform ranking.

2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev

Announces Operations Update, Forgan Land Consolidation and Increased 2016 Guidance, Approval for Rock Energy Acquisition

An increased 2016 budget prompts slight boost to production estimates, despite a modestly trailing 2Q16 production figure. Consolidation of land at Forgan is positive and consistent with Corporate aggregation strategy, further expanding the Viking footprint.

ANNOUNCES OPERATIONS UPDATE, FORGAN LAND CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASED 2016 GUIDANCE, APPROVAL FOR ROCK ENERGY (RE) ACQUISITION

Impact: Neutral. 2Q16 production slightly trailed both FirstEnergy and consensus estimates, however, a modestly increased 2016 budget should bring annual production volumes above our prior expectations.

Raging River Announces Corporate Acquisition of Rock Energy

Raging River has entered into an agreement to acquire Rock Energy in an all share deal valued at $109 mm (inclusive of $67 mm in debt). Through this transaction, the Company adds 2,550 boe/d (95% oil), of which 1,950 bbl/d is outside Raging River’s core Viking asset base and producing from Rock’s heavy oil assets primarily at Mantario. Our proforma forecast portrays the transaction as 8% accretive to 2017e CFPS all while maintaining the Company’s balance sheet flexibility and strong productio

ANNOUNCES CORPORATE ACQUISITION OF ROCK ENERGY INC. (RE)

Impact: Positive. The corporate acquisition of Rock Energy adds another layer of high quality, light oil Viking inventory at Kerrobert complementary to Raging River's existing position. While the market may be initially uncertain of the heavy oil barrels acquired from the Mantario pool, we view this as an opportunistic transaction at a low in the commodity cycle that may ultimately reside only temporary at Raging River. Further, tax pools of $208 mm will aid in reducing the Company's payable cas

Raging River Reports First Quarter Results, Lifts 2016e Capital Budget with Crude Oil Price Recovery Up from the Lows

Raging River reported first quarter financial and operating results that were in line to slightly below forecast, principally a function of its election to delay completion activity until 2Q16e on confirmation of crude oil price recovery.

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Caps

With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe

Domestic E&P Statistical Package and FD&A Review

With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.

Reports As expected 4Q15 Financial and operating Results

Following our participatoon in Raging River’s $108.1 mm equity financing, issuing 12.5 mm share at $8.65 per share, we summarize the Company’s 4Q15 financial and operating results, which we view as in line with our prior estimates. Overall, incorporating 4Q15 results into our estimates along with the recently closed financing, we see our general outlook unchanged, absent some minor changes to pricing, costs and the signi cant reduction to net debt which has improved Raging River’s 2016e debt to

Intermediate/Mid/Small Cap Commodity Price Update Impact

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our crude oil commodity price update. Concurrent within a dynamic time for E&Ps, some of which have already begun the process of 2016 capital budget downdrafts, revised estimates attempt to directionally capture a shift towards capital conservation, though severely weakened futures curves have influenced our thinking for the better part of 6 months anyway. We expect further capital investment reductions forthcoming from E&Ps i

Raging River Reports Strong 2015 Year-End Reserve Book, Reduces 2016e Capital Spending Targets to Preserve the Best Balance Sheet in its Peer Group

Raging River’s reserve book coming out of 2015 is reflective of another year of predictable, efficient capital allocation. With capital outlays entirely discretionary, the Company is moving to a lower capex program for 2016e to $150-$160 mm, though a growth target of 16,500 boe/d is not materially different from its prior assertion (-3%). The Company continues to have the best balance sheet in its peer group far and away. An updated NAV continues to support a valuation level offering decent posi

RAGING RIVER EXPLORATION INC. (RRX) ANNOUNCES 2015 YEAR END RESERVES AND UPDATED 2016 GUIDANCE

Impact: Positive. While a reduced capital investment outlook will likely induce downward revisions to our production and cash flow estimates, the decreased spending will also offer an improved financial position, which when coupled with stronger implied capital reinvestment efficiencies, should prove to be net positive for the stock on a risk adjusted basis, given the current environment.

IOG - Forecast and valuation update

Forecast and valuation update

SHORE CAPITAL - SAVANNAH ENERGY+ (SAVE, 40p, Under Review) – FY21 results; completion of Chad-Cameroon entry expected in Q3

Exceptional transformation… and it may be just a beginning

With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market

Pantheon Resources (PANR) - Significant Increase in Fair Value Estimate

We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.

IOG - Production update

Production update

Cenkos: Chariot Ltd -- Fast-Tracking the Anchois Development

Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems

Arrow Exploration - RCS-1 flow testing results

RCS-1 flow testing results

Cenkos: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc --Commencement of Drilling Programme

Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve

EQTEC - Key Milestone for Southport

EQTEC has reached a key milestone in its Southport energy from waste project with the appointment of Anaergia as EPC and O&M partner. This is a complex project using multiple waste treatment solutions and we see EQTEC’s inclusion as a demonstration that it’s technology can combine with these to create an optimal outcome.

Cenkos: Wentworth Resources Plc -- 7.1% Yield and Growth

Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): 0.72 mmbbl sales will trigger a US$60 mm payment to PetroTal earlier than expected

• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened. • As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time. • PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r

Cenkos: Wentworth Resources Plc -- Tanzania's Leading Domestic Gas Producer

Wentworth has announced the acquisition of a 25% non-operated working interest in the Ruvuma PSA from Scirocco Energy for an initial consideration of US$3m plus contingent payments of up to US$13m. The consideration is structured to ensure that the majority is only paid in a success case, providing Wentworth with a low-cost entry point into a high growth opportunity. The transaction has the potential to nearly double the Company's production by 2026 and add over 190Bcf of 2P reserves on a Final

Vanchem Kiln 3 up and running as path mapped to longer-term consolidated target of 8,000t V pa

Completion of commissioning of Kiln 3 at Vanchem last month keeps Bushveld on track to end 2022 with a sustainable production run rate of 5,000-5,400t V pa, a solid platform from which to refocus on longer-term growth. Fully utilising the vast array of processing infrastructure at Vanchem to treat feed from an expanded mining and ore concentration operation at Vametco makes a lot of sense given the fixed component of costs at the former and the large mineral resource at the latter. Bushveld’s re

Wentworth Resources plc (AIM: WEN): Delivering on targets

• 2022 YTD gross production was 92 mmcf/d, ahead of our expectations of 89 mmcf/d for 1H22. • The FY22 production guidance remains unchanged at 75-85 mmcf/d. It looks very conservative in our view. • The company currently holds US$26 mm in cash and no debt. This is in line with our expectations. • TPDC continues to be current with regards to receivables. • We re-iterate our target price of £0.45 per share. Steady growth and dividend Our Core NAV for the company based on its 2P reserves only i

WH Ireland: Savannah Resources (SAV) - Locked cycle flotation tests confirms recoveries and grades

Savannah, which operates the Barroso lithium mine project in Portugal, reports today the results of its locked cycle test to determine optimal flotation reagents to confirm lithium recoveries and spodumene concentrate grades. Savannah is aiming for a 5.5%Li2O concentrate grade with a near 80% recovery. The reported work confirms that these should be possible and that in larger scale, bulk testing these parameters may improve. The work also highlights that there are still optimisations to be h