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Yangarra reported first quarter results, which on the whole we would characterize as in line to slightly behind our expectations.
Companies: Yangarra Resources Ltd.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT TXP VET WCP BNE CJ KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ BXO CKE GXE IKM MQL SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
Yangarra reported year-end results with production, cash flow, capital expenditures, and net debt all largely as expected, as the Company had provided preliminary year-end estimates in an early January operations update. Recall the Company released its year-end reserve report one month ago as detailed in our Facts dated February 17, 2016. While previously alluding to a cash flow budget for 2016e, Management has put forth more formal guidance, with the Board of Directors approving a $24 mm capita
Current production volumes appear reasonably in line with our 1Q16e forecast. Yangarra reported year-end reserves which were up ~9% on a 2P basis, while the 2P NPV was up ~26% benefitting from improved economics as a result of the use of cemented liner technology, extended reach wells, and lower costs. We have updated our NAV methodology which continues to point towards considerable upside from current trading levels. We maintain our Outperform ranking on an elevated target price of $1.00 per sh
Impact: Slightly positive. Yangarra reported lower y/y reserves on a per share basis, but incorporated higher NPVs given improvements to play economics for the Company's core properties in central Alberta. For the year ended 2015, Deloitte has assigned PDP reserves of 5.6 mmboe, 1P reserves of 24.7 mmboe, and 2P reserves of 40.6 mmboe. This resulted in y/y per share growth of -18% for PDP, 3% for 1P, and -7% 2P. The Company noted significant improvements to economics throughout its central Alber
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our crude oil commodity price update. Concurrent within a dynamic time for E&Ps, some of which have already begun the process of 2016 capital budget downdrafts, revised estimates attempt to directionally capture a shift towards capital conservation, though severely weakened futures curves have influenced our thinking for the better part of 6 months anyway. We expect further capital investment reductions forthcoming from E&Ps i
Companies: AAV ARX BNP CPG ERF POU PEY SPE SGY TVE TOU VET GXE KEL NVA PPY BTE PGF PSK PWT WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY LTS LRE PNE RRX RMP TET TNZ BXO CKE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SKX TVETF YGR YO
Impact - neutral to slightly positive with no changes to the Company's previously released guidance while operationally the Company remains on track with recent well results looking to be in line to slightly ahead of our type curve assumptions.
“Worse? How could they get any worse? Take a look around you, Ellen. We’re at the threshold of hell”. These are the words spoken by Clark Gris-wold in the holiday classic “Christmas Vacation”, and seem aptly suited for the general sentiment in the Canadian energy space at the moment as we roll out a summary of our regular forecast revisions extending from our most recent crude oil and natural gas price forecast update.
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP ERF POU PEY PGF PSK PWT TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TET TNZ BXO CKE GXE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO CPG
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Royalty Sale | PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (PSK) Buying CNQ’s Royalty Assets and 3Q15 Results | Seven Generations Energy Ltd. (VII) Reports 3Q15 Financial Results Ahead of Expectations, Outlines 2016e Capital Budget of $1.10-$1.15 billion | Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) Reports Third Quarter Results, Provides Preliminary 2016e Capital
Spending Guidance | Yangarra Resources Ltd. (YGR) Announces 3Q15 Results In Line With Recently Revised Expectations | Tullow Oi
Companies: CNQ PSK VET YGR TLW AOI ESI ENF
Impact: Neutral as the Company reported results that were largely in line with recently revised expectations
Yangarra provided an operations update with 2H15e production volumes coming in short of our expectations as the Company continues to work through ongoing TCPL restrictions in the region. That said, operationally the Company looks strong with significant cost reductions in both drilling and completions hitting the tape, and promising results from its latest 1.5 mile horizontal Cardium well, which should bode well for future development of the play.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 3Q15e quarterly results for our Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) coverage universe. Within the backdrop of continued weakness in the commodity price complex that saw the retrenchment of crude oil pricing during the quarter, after what was a short lived rally during the second quarter, we are anticipating yet another lacklustre reporting period in the Junior E&P space, with the key themes coming out of the quarter likely to
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK TOU TET VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TNZ CKE GXE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
Impact - negative in the near-term given lower than anticipated 2H15 production volumes as a result of TCPL restrictions, although operationally the Company looks strong with significant cost reductions in both drilling and completions and promising results from its latest 1.5 mile horizontal Cardium well, while the Company's first glimpse at 2016e guidance is reasonably in line with our thinking
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions stemming from an interim commodity price update centered around the crude oil pricing complex. Moves for crude oil weighted producers are significant, with 2016e cash flows down 12%-15%, and portended NAVs reduced sizably on the employment of a materially lower terminal value within the scope of the forecast period, though not reflective of the potential attrition in E&D capital investment and dividend policy should the current forward strip
Companies: AAV BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK PWT TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET CKE GXE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO CYM
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Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market
Companies: Zenith Energy Ltd.
Alternative Resource Capital
We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems
Companies: Chariot Limited
RCS-1 flow testing results
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
EQTEC has reached a key milestone in its Southport energy from waste project with the appointment of Anaergia as EPC and O&M partner. This is a complex project using multiple waste treatment solutions and we see EQTEC’s inclusion as a demonstration that it’s technology can combine with these to create an optimal outcome.
Companies: EQTEC PLC
Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th
Companies: Wentworth Resources PLC
Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened.
• As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time.
• PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Wentworth has announced the acquisition of a 25% non-operated working interest in the Ruvuma PSA from Scirocco Energy for an initial consideration of US$3m plus contingent payments of up to US$13m. The consideration is structured to ensure that the majority is only paid in a success case, providing Wentworth with a low-cost entry point into a high growth opportunity. The transaction has the potential to nearly double the Company's production by 2026 and add over 190Bcf of 2P reserves on a Final
• 2022 YTD gross production was 92 mmcf/d, ahead of our expectations of 89 mmcf/d for 1H22.
• The FY22 production guidance remains unchanged at 75-85 mmcf/d. It looks very conservative in our view.
• The company currently holds US$26 mm in cash and no debt. This is in line with our expectations.
• TPDC continues to be current with regards to receivables.
• We re-iterate our target price of £0.45 per share.
Steady growth and dividend
Our Core NAV for the company based on its 2P reserves only i
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What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Immediate acquisitions (IME.L) is to re-join AIM via a Reverse Takeover of Fiinu Holdings Limited. Once complete the Company is proposing to change its name to Fiinu Group plc. Fiinu intends to be a provider of a consumer banking product, the Plugin Overdraft ®, which is designed to provide customers with an overdraft facility without having to change their current account or req
Companies: TRB CWR CCS DMTR EMAN GTC JSE KIBO MDZ SYM
Savannah, which operates the Barroso lithium mine project in Portugal, reports today the results of its locked cycle test to determine optimal flotation reagents to confirm lithium recoveries and spodumene concentrate grades. Savannah is aiming for a 5.5%Li2O concentrate grade with a near 80% recovery. The reported work confirms that these should be possible and that in larger scale, bulk testing these parameters may improve. The work also highlights that there are still optimisations to be h
Companies: Savannah Resources Plc
• The RCS-1 well was flow tested at oil rates of up 1,872 bbl/d (936 bbl/d net to Arrow) of 30 API crude from the C7B sands.
• The zone was tested for 33 hours at an average oil rate of 1,076 bbl/d (538 bbl/d net to Arrow) with no formation water. Production will start next week at ~1,000 bbl/d (500 bbl/d net) in order to minimize water cut. We understand that the zone has the potential to produce 2,000-3,000 bbl/d of oil.
• This is again above our expectations (~800 bbl/d).
• The shallower C7