Hague and London Oil: Operation update in the Netherlands | Hurricane Exploration (HUR LN) (not covered): Update in the UK North Sea | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN) (not covered): 3Q19 results
Companies: HNL HUR GNF
Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): HOLD, £0.60; 2Q19 results | Cadogan Petroleum (CAD LN) (not covered): 1H19 update in Ukraine | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN) (not covered): 2Q19 update in Azerbaijan | Total (FP FP) (not covered): Farm out transactions with Qatar Petroleum
Companies: JSE CAD GNF
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)1 ; BUY, £0.40: Very positive operational update in Peru | i3 Energy (I3E LN)1 ; Speculative Buy, £1.80: Investment and further commitment to the junior facility | Ithaca Energy acquires Chevron’s UK North Sea assets | Neptune Energy: 1Q19 results | Cadogan Petroleum (CAD LN) (not covered): Well update in Ukraine | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN) (not covered): 1Q19 results | Orca Exploration (ORC.A/B CN) (not covered): New gas sales agreement with TPDC in Tanzania
Companies: PTAL I3E CAD GNF ORC/B
Arrow Exploration (AXL CN) (not covered): FY18 results | Cadogan Petroleum (CAD LN) (not covered): Blazh-10 well update in the Ukraine | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN) (not covered): Update in Azerbaijan
Companies: Cadogan Petroleum plc (CAD:LON)GREENFIELDS PETROLEUM (GNF:TSE)
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE CN/LN); HOLD, C$4.75: New-country entry into Ecuador | Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN)1 : BUY, £0.25; Operational update in Trinidad | Valeura Energy (VLE CN)1,6; BUY, C$11.00: 4Q18 results | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN) (not covered): YE18 reserves in Azerbaijan | ENI (ENI IM) (not covered): Farm out offshore Morocco | Oryx Petroleum (OXC CN): Under Review; FY18 results | Eland Oil & Gas (ELA LN) (not covered): Reserves update in Nigeria | ENI (ENI IM) (not covered): Major oil discovery offshore Angola
Companies: GTE TXP VLU GNF ENI OXC ELA ENI
Cuadrilla Resources: First gas flowed from onshore UK fracking | Reabold Resources (RBD LN) (not covered): UK transaction | Serica Energy (SQZ LN) (not covered): Acquisition in the UK North Sea | Caspian Sunrise (CASP LN) (not covered): Operating update in Kazakhstan | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN) (not covered): Placing, debt to equity conversion and listing on AIM | Africa Oil (AOI CN/SS); BUY, C$2.60: Transferring coverage: Africa Oil adds production in Nigeria | Tullow Oil (TLW LN); REDUCE, £2.50: West Africa update from partner Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN) (not covered): 3Q18 results
Companies: RBD SQZ CASP GNF AOI TLW KOS
Greenfield Petroleum (GNF CN) (not covered): 3Q18 results | San Leon Energy (SLE LN) (not covered): Payment in Nigeria
Companies: GREENFIELDS PETROLEUM (GNF:TSE)San Leon Energy Plc (SLE:LON)
Frontera Energy (FEC CN)1,6; BUY, C$28.00: 2Q18 cash flow in excess of expectations | Gran Tierra Energy (GTE CN)6 ; BUY, C$7.00: Strong 2Q18 cash flow and increased 2018 capital budget | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US) (not covered): 2Q18 results and acquisition in the US Gulf of Mexico | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN) (not covered): Extensions to maturity of loans and Azerbaijan production update | Volga Gas (VGAS LN) (not covered): July production | Solo Oil (SOLO LN) (not covered): Raising new equity
Companies: GTE GNF VGAS SCIR KOS
Diversified Gas & oil (DGOC LN) (not covered): 1Q18 dividend | Cadogan Petroleum (CAD LN) (not covered): Production increase in Ukraine | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN) (not covered): 1Q18 results
Valeura Energy (VLE CN)1,6; BUY, C$10.00: Year-end 2017 results and continued focus on the deep basin centered gas accumulation | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN)8 ; Discontinuing research coverage | SDX Energy (SDX LN/CN)1,6: 4Q17 results | Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) (not covered): FY17 results
Companies: VLU GNF SAVE SDX
We are discontinuing research coverage of Greenfields Petroleum, due to a reallocated of analyst resources. All prior production and financial estimates, as well as research ratings and target prices must no longer be relied upon.
Companies: GREENFIELDS PETROLEUM
Cairn Energy (CNE LN); BUY, £2.20: FY17 results | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN)8 ; SPECULATIVE BUY, C$0.25: YE17 reserves increased, but equity injection required to develop |
Companies: Cairn Energy PLC (CNE:LON)GREENFIELDS PETROLEUM (GNF:TSE)
Greenfield recently reported that its 1P reserves increased 51% to 37 mmboe, 2P reserves increased 33% to 53 mmboe, and 3P reserves increased 24% to 66 mmboe. The increase reverse booked also include a significant increase in future development capital to US$211 mm on 1P reserves, US$274 mm on 2P reserves, and US$329 mm on 3P reserves. In order to fund the future development capital, Greenfields will require external sources of financing. We have estimated the dilution and have reduced our target price to C$0.25 per share.
Houston-based Greenfields Petroleum acquires interests in undeveloped oil and gas fields overseas. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan offered up its best oil and gas projects to international companies. GNF now has an 80% stake in the impressive Bahar Project. It is a very good address, home to billion-barrel oil and multi-trillion cubic feet gas projects proved up by neighbours including BP and Total.
Jadestone Energy (JSE CN); SPECULATIVE BUY, C$1.00: Results for the quarter ending 30/09/2017 | Faroe Petroleum (FPM LN)6 ; BUY, £1.30: Iris/Hades Well in Norway | Greenfields Petroleum (GNF CN)8; SPECULATIVE BUY, C$0.50: Reduced estimates post 3Q17 results | Soco International (SIA LN) (not covered) | Tullow Oil (TLW LN); REDUCE, £1.85: US$2.5 bn debt refinancing
Companies: FPM GNF PHAR TLW
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on GREENFIELDS PETROLEUM.
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Parkmead’s portfolio has evolved to the point where it is now a full-cycle E&P company with a low-cost Dutch production base and a broad spectrum of high-quality UK growth opportunities, encompassing material development projects and an attractive range of risk/reward exploration. Recently, it has diversified into renewables, future proofing its equity story and opening up a new ‘investor-friendly’ avenue of growth. A core strength of this management team is its commercial acumen and portfolio-driven approach to optimising value. Parkmead has been in portfolio construction mode to date but is now well positioned to start crystallising its intrinsic value. We initiate with a risked-NAV based price target of 155p/sh. Investors would do well to get on-board with a management team that has a strong track record of delivering shareholder value.
Companies: Parkmead Group PLC
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC), Vermilion Energy (VET) and Circle Property (CRC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil PLC
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)c; Target price of NOK23.00: Revisiting Gabon - BW Energy provided an update on Dussafu with FY20 production guidance expectation marginally below previous guidance (14.25 mbbl/d versus 15 16 mbbl/d) due to COVID-19 restrictions and OPEC+ quotas. This results in FY20 opex expected to be US$19/bbl which is slightly above the previous guidance of US$17-18/bbl. The drilling of DTM-7H, and the tie-in of DTM-6H and -7H, has been deferred to mid-2021 with first oil expected in 3Q21 and our estimate of the timing of the field production ramp-up has been delayed by one quarter. BWE continues to expect production from the Dussafu area to reach >30 mbbl/d in 2023 and ~40 mbbl/d in 2024. The Hibiscus development is expected to offer 15% IRR at
Companies: TGL TGA 88E FEC JSE LUPE LUNE LNDNF LYV NOG GB_NTRM NSTRY 3NO PANR P3K PTHRF PTAL TETY TETY AOI ENOG PEN SDX EGY
• In an Important development, PetroTal has signed a contract with an international oil trader for a pilot shipment to export 0.12 mmbbl into the Atlantic region using the Amazon river through Brazil. The shipment will be sold FOB Bretana, priced at the forward month Brent ICE price, and paid within two weeks of loading at Bretana. There are no subsequent oil price adjustments.
• At November 19, 2020, PetroTal had cash resources of US$9.8 mm, with accounts payable and accrued liabilities of ~US$39 mm, a reduction of ~US$11 mm from the end of 2Q20. The company has been paid US$5.5 mm for delivery of 0.192 mm bbl of oil to Petroperu in October. Production is constrained to ~5,000 bbl/d pending the reopening of the export pipeline.
• We understand that the pilot should start in December. This would not only provide ~US$5 mm in cash to PetroTal but also allow production to return to recent levels (11.5 mbbl/d), effectively unlocking the fundamental value of the asset.
Balance sheet considerations
The potential financial derivative liability has been reduced from US$22.5 mm at the end of June to US$17 mm at the end of September. Of the US$39 mm current payables 46% are not due before 2021 and we note that the company still holds US$13 mm in account receivables and US$4.7 mm in inventory.
Financials on “a back to normal” scenario with flat production
We are now assuming production remains constrained at 5 mbbl/d over 4Q20 with minimum capex with cashflow and receivables being used to repay the due payables over the period.
On production of just ~11.5 mbbl/d during 2021, we estimate operating cashflow of US$85 mm at US$48/bbl Brent. This would result in free cashflow of >US$40 mm assuming capex of US$20 mm to maintain production and US$20 mm to repay the remaining payables. This compares with a current market cap of just US$75 mm, suggesting FY21 free cashflow would represent over 50% of the current market cap in a no growth scenario assuming production can be exported.
Our target price of £0.45 per share represents 6x the current share price.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
EQTEC has announced today that the Company and Scott Bros. Enterprises Limited have agreed to extend the exclusivity period of the Billingham MOU until 18 December 2020. The Billingham MOU has been subject to previous extensions, as announced on 23 October 2019, 23 June 2020 and 18 September 2020.
Companies: EQTEC PLC (KEU1:FRA)EQTEC PLC (EQT:LON)
Pantheon announced that is has contracted a rig to drill the Talitha well and that drilling operations are expected to commence in January 2021. The well will target four independent reservoirs, in three separate trapping sequences, which the company estimates has the potential to contain in the region of a billion barrels of recoverable oil, although ongoing work is required to formally delineate the full potential of the targets.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
The Prime Minister vowed last week to “restore Britain's position as the foremost naval power in Europe” and promised an extra £16.5bn in defence spending over the next four years. Mr Johnson expects this investment to “spur a renaissance of British shipbuilding across the UK”, and specifically mentioned five locations where this would occur, including Belfast and Appledore – the location of InfraStrata's shipyards. Other supportive policy initiatives emanating from the government include Mr Johnson's pledge in October that offshore wind will power every home in the country by 2030. We believe this demonstrable support from the highest level of government vindicates InfraStrata's strategy, and demonstrates the significant opportunities available to the company as it bids on numerous shipbuilding and fabrication contracts. We reaffirm our Buy rating.
Companies: InfraStrata plc
Salt Lake Potash's AGM update reported that the Lake Way project is now 74% complete. Construction of the process plant is on-schedule with practical completion and first SOP production planned for Q1/21. Drawdown of the Senior Facility Agreement funds and repayment of the Taurus bridge loan is expected soon.
Companies: Salt Lake Potash Limited
Jersey Oil & Gas announced today that is has entered into an agreement to acquire the entire share capital of CIECO V&C (UK) Limited, which is currently owned by two international entities headquartered in Japan. The acquisition secures an additional 12% working interest in Licence P2170 (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d), which provides Jersey Oil & Gas with 100% of the licence. The licence contains the majority of the Verbier oil discovery in addition to three drill ready prospects: Verbier Deep, Wengen and Cortina. The acquired entity has approximately £15M of tax losses which will provide value to Jersey Oil & Gas. Consideration will consist of £150k in cash and contingent payments of i) £1.5M upon field development plan approval of Verbier within P2170 (as already discovered) by the OGA ii) £1.0M upon the 1st anniversary of attainment of first oil. The acquisition is conditional on OGA approval amongst other technicalities, which we do not anticipate will be problematic. The acquired entity will be free of debts.
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Oil rose to the highest in nearly three months with positive Covid-19 vaccine developments paving the way for a more sustained recovery in oil demand.
Futures rose 5% in New York this week for a third straight weekly gain as Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE requested emergency authorisation of their Covid vaccine Friday. Moderna Inc also released positive interim results from a final-stage trial and said it is close to seeking emergency authorisation. Still, further gains were limited by broader market declines amid a dispute between the White House and the Federal Reserve over emergency lending programmes.
Even with vaccines on the horizon, a recovery in oil demand faces obstacles with governments under pressure to tighten restrictions and curb the spread of the virus. UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson's officials are considering tougher pandemic rules placed on broader regions of England next month after a national lockdown is set to end and the country returns to its tiered system. Meanwhile, the shift toward working from home may have a lasting chill on gasoline demand, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George.
The recent climb in headline prices has been accompanied by significant moves in timespreads, where traders bet on the price of oil in different months. The spread between West Texas Intermediate for December 2021 delivery and the following month moved to backwardation, while the closely watched gap between December 2021 and 2022 WTI contracts is close to also flipping.
West Texas Intermediate for December delivery, which expired Friday, rose 41 cents to settle at $42.15 a barrel.
The January contract rose 52 cents to end the session at $42.42 a barrel.
Brent for January settlement gained 76 cents to $44.96 a barrel. The contract rose 5.1% this week.
Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine could be the first to be cleared for use, but first it must undergo a thorough vetting. The filing could enable its use by the middle to the end of December, the companies said in a statement. Yet, it could take at least three weeks for a US Food and Drug Administration decision.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Acquisition of CIECO P2170 interest
Companies: JOG JYOGF TPC1
Savannah’s acquisition of a key strategic Nigerian gas asset with strong growth potential has been ignored by the market. Its significant exploration success in Niger has also gone unrewarded. Delivery of the strong free cash flow potential these assets offer will re-rate the shares, which are materially undervalued. Management’s tenacity in getting the Seven Energy acquisition across the line alongside the impressive early progress with the acquired assets should give investors confidence. We initiate with a Buy rating and risked-NAV based price target of 49p/sh.
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
Trifast has reported FY21 interim results that highlight the tough operating conditions with material falls in revenue, and operating leverage driving sharp reductions in profitability. The c.£16m equity raise helped to cushion the financial impact and the ongoing recovery exiting the first half provides some optimism for the Group heading in to FY22. We reinstate our buy recommendation.
Companies: Trifast plc (TRI:LON)Trifast plc (25D:BER)
Today's news & views, plus announcements from KGF, MRO, UU, BAB, BRW, FUTR, GNS, HICL, LIO, AEXG, FUL, KWS
Companies: AEX GNS HICL
While a three-year plan would have been more than enough, the new CEO delivered a roadmap for the next ten years. The idea is to show how Tullow’s existing assets can generate sufficient cash for the next decade. Discipline is key, with deleveraging as top priority. Spending is on a tight budget ($2.7bn for the next ten years) with 90% of it going to develop the West African assets. The quest to regain investors’ trust continues.
Companies: Tullow Oil plc