Penn West reported second quarter results that came in slightly ahead of our thinking, although in isolation we view the results as somewhat of a non-event in light of material disposition activity to date. More importantly we believe focus will be placed on the uplift to corporate guidance and operating cost reductions, which have resulted in positive moves to our forecast. As part of its “Phase II” asset sale initiatives, Management has shed a further 6,000 boe/d of production for proceeds of $75 mm that will be used to further shore up the balance sheet. With the Company continuing to make strides in its restructuring process, we have revised our ranking to Market Perform on an elevated target price of $1.75 per share.
Companies: Penn West Petroleum
Impact: Slightly positive. We view second quarter results in isolation as somewhat of a non-event in light of material disposition activity to date, and believe more focus will be placed on the uplift to corporate guidance and operating cost reductions, which should help to buoy our estimates going forward.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
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It comes as no surprise that the sale of Penn West’s Saskatchewan assets was viewed positively by the market, with the stock surging ~40% on the day, as the transaction materially reduces the Company’s outstanding debt position while ensuring it stays onside with its debt covenants for the foreseeable future. That said, it comes at the expense of parting with one of its prized assets, while further non-core dispositions will be required in order to improve the long-term outlook for the Company and allow it to be competitive within its peer group. With further action needed, we prefer to take a wait and see approach and thus see no reason to own the stock in the here and now. We maintain our Underperform ranking on a revised target price of $1.00 per share.
Impact - positive as the transaction materially reduces the Company's outstanding debt position while ensuring it stays onside with its debt covenants that were set to be breached by the end of 2Q16, although comes at the expense of parting with its best asset with further non-core dispositions required in order improve the long-term outlook for the Company and allow it to be competitive within its peer group.
Our forecast for this week’s report is for an injection of 77 bcf. Last week was probably one of the most weather neutral weeks so far this year, as demand slipped modestly in all the major categories, while supplies held firm for the most part. With such slack conditions, we think the market can hold more in the 70s bcf range for injections, but still well below year ago injection rates, and below 5-year average injection rates for this time of year. This will prove critical in keeping storage levels more on track to reach average levels by the end of October.
while quarterly results were ahead of expectations and annual operating expense guidance has been reduced, we expect the market to continue to focus on the Company's ability to continue as a going concern given the Company's need for a second round of covenant relief by the end of the second quarter to avoid default on its outstanding debt.
With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.
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Penn West has announced the sale of its Slave Point assets for $148 mm along with additional non-core asset sales to the tune of $80 mm, bringing in combined proceeds of ~$230 mm that will go towards paying down outstanding debt. While the Slave Point asset was deemed as a core asset, given the current state of commodity prices Management had no plans to allocate any capital to the property over the near term. With net debt of ~$2,100 mm exiting 2015, these asset sales, while helpful, are relatively immaterial to the overall picture, with the Company still forecasting a breach of covenants in 2Q16 that will require further covenant relief if available.
Impact - neutral with the sales proceeds going towards paying down debt, although relatively immaterial in the context of the Company's outstanding debt position, with the Slave Point assets defined as core assets up until this point
Penn West’s year-end results continue to paint a challenging picture for the Company with fourth quarter cash flow well below our thinking and the consensus estimate, coupled with a significant haircut to year-end reserves. Year-end reserves were down close to 50% in the 1P and 2P categories as were NPVs, as a result of ongoing disposition activity, economic factors, and negative technical revisions (largely stemming from an “FDC alignment”). Further uncertainty exists surrounding the Company’s outstanding debt as under current pricing. Management is forecasting a breach of its covenants in 2Q16, and thus has entered into discussions with its lenders to explore available options, including poten al for a second round of covenant relief. We have updated our forecast and NAV methodology and see no reason to revise our Underperform ranking or target price at this juncture.
Impact - negative with fourth quarter cash flow well below our thinking and the consensus estimate coupled with a significant haircut to year-end reserves. In addition, further uncertainty exists surrounding the Company's outstanding debt as under current pricing Management is forecasting a breach of its covenants in 2Q16, and thus has entered into discussions with its lenders to explore available options, including potential for a second round of covenant relief
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our crude oil commodity price update. Concurrent within a dynamic time for E&Ps, some of which have already begun the process of 2016 capital budget downdrafts, revised estimates attempt to directionally capture a shift towards capital conservation, though severely weakened futures curves have influenced our thinking for the better part of 6 months anyway. We expect further capital investment reductions forthcoming from E&Ps in the coming weeks.
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Fourth quarter production came in ahead of our estimate on slightly lower spending, with 21 net wells brought on stream during the fourth quarter. The 2016e capital budget will see $50 mm of E&D spending, a 90% decrease from 2015e levels as Management works towards living within cash flow at current commodity prices. Production is anticipated to drop to a range of 60,000-64,000 boe/d in 2016e, down
considerably from the 2015e average of 86,250 boe/d, a portion of which is related to ongoing disposition activity and shut-ins. With another difficult year shaping up for the Company, particularly with respect to its material debt position and outstanding covenants, we have maintained our Underperform ranking.
Impact: Negative. While 2015e production was modestly ahead of our estimates, the large downdraft to 2016e capital spending will see downward revisions to our estimates. Penn West announced that its Board of Directors has approved a minimalist 2016e capital budget of $50 mm (FCC was $175 mm; consensus $278 mm), which is anticipated to generate average volumes of 62,000 boe/d (67% liquids), at midpoint. The Company provided a range of cash flow sensitivities calling for $0-$40 mm of cash flow at current price levels increasing to $140-$180 mm at US$45 WTI. While the revised capital budget is consistent with Management's previously announced strategy of spending within cash flow, the budget, which is 90% lower than 2015e spending, is significantly below street estimates and will cause estimates to
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Parkmead’s portfolio has evolved to the point where it is now a full-cycle E&P company with a low-cost Dutch production base and a broad spectrum of high-quality UK growth opportunities, encompassing material development projects and an attractive range of risk/reward exploration. Recently, it has diversified into renewables, future proofing its equity story and opening up a new ‘investor-friendly’ avenue of growth. A core strength of this management team is its commercial acumen and portfolio-driven approach to optimising value. Parkmead has been in portfolio construction mode to date but is now well positioned to start crystallising its intrinsic value. We initiate with a risked-NAV based price target of 155p/sh. Investors would do well to get on-board with a management team that has a strong track record of delivering shareholder value.
Companies: Parkmead Group PLC
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC), Vermilion Energy (VET) and Circle Property (CRC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil PLC
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)c; Target price of NOK23.00: Revisiting Gabon - BW Energy provided an update on Dussafu with FY20 production guidance expectation marginally below previous guidance (14.25 mbbl/d versus 15 16 mbbl/d) due to COVID-19 restrictions and OPEC+ quotas. This results in FY20 opex expected to be US$19/bbl which is slightly above the previous guidance of US$17-18/bbl. The drilling of DTM-7H, and the tie-in of DTM-6H and -7H, has been deferred to mid-2021 with first oil expected in 3Q21 and our estimate of the timing of the field production ramp-up has been delayed by one quarter. BWE continues to expect production from the Dussafu area to reach >30 mbbl/d in 2023 and ~40 mbbl/d in 2024. The Hibiscus development is expected to offer 15% IRR at
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• In an Important development, PetroTal has signed a contract with an international oil trader for a pilot shipment to export 0.12 mmbbl into the Atlantic region using the Amazon river through Brazil. The shipment will be sold FOB Bretana, priced at the forward month Brent ICE price, and paid within two weeks of loading at Bretana. There are no subsequent oil price adjustments.
• At November 19, 2020, PetroTal had cash resources of US$9.8 mm, with accounts payable and accrued liabilities of ~US$39 mm, a reduction of ~US$11 mm from the end of 2Q20. The company has been paid US$5.5 mm for delivery of 0.192 mm bbl of oil to Petroperu in October. Production is constrained to ~5,000 bbl/d pending the reopening of the export pipeline.
• We understand that the pilot should start in December. This would not only provide ~US$5 mm in cash to PetroTal but also allow production to return to recent levels (11.5 mbbl/d), effectively unlocking the fundamental value of the asset.
Balance sheet considerations
The potential financial derivative liability has been reduced from US$22.5 mm at the end of June to US$17 mm at the end of September. Of the US$39 mm current payables 46% are not due before 2021 and we note that the company still holds US$13 mm in account receivables and US$4.7 mm in inventory.
Financials on “a back to normal” scenario with flat production
We are now assuming production remains constrained at 5 mbbl/d over 4Q20 with minimum capex with cashflow and receivables being used to repay the due payables over the period.
On production of just ~11.5 mbbl/d during 2021, we estimate operating cashflow of US$85 mm at US$48/bbl Brent. This would result in free cashflow of >US$40 mm assuming capex of US$20 mm to maintain production and US$20 mm to repay the remaining payables. This compares with a current market cap of just US$75 mm, suggesting FY21 free cashflow would represent over 50% of the current market cap in a no growth scenario assuming production can be exported.
Our target price of £0.45 per share represents 6x the current share price.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
EQTEC has announced today that the Company and Scott Bros. Enterprises Limited have agreed to extend the exclusivity period of the Billingham MOU until 18 December 2020. The Billingham MOU has been subject to previous extensions, as announced on 23 October 2019, 23 June 2020 and 18 September 2020.
Companies: EQTEC PLC (KEU1:FRA)EQTEC PLC (EQT:LON)
Pantheon announced that is has contracted a rig to drill the Talitha well and that drilling operations are expected to commence in January 2021. The well will target four independent reservoirs, in three separate trapping sequences, which the company estimates has the potential to contain in the region of a billion barrels of recoverable oil, although ongoing work is required to formally delineate the full potential of the targets.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
The Prime Minister vowed last week to “restore Britain's position as the foremost naval power in Europe” and promised an extra £16.5bn in defence spending over the next four years. Mr Johnson expects this investment to “spur a renaissance of British shipbuilding across the UK”, and specifically mentioned five locations where this would occur, including Belfast and Appledore – the location of InfraStrata's shipyards. Other supportive policy initiatives emanating from the government include Mr Johnson's pledge in October that offshore wind will power every home in the country by 2030. We believe this demonstrable support from the highest level of government vindicates InfraStrata's strategy, and demonstrates the significant opportunities available to the company as it bids on numerous shipbuilding and fabrication contracts. We reaffirm our Buy rating.
Companies: InfraStrata plc
Salt Lake Potash's AGM update reported that the Lake Way project is now 74% complete. Construction of the process plant is on-schedule with practical completion and first SOP production planned for Q1/21. Drawdown of the Senior Facility Agreement funds and repayment of the Taurus bridge loan is expected soon.
Companies: Salt Lake Potash Limited
Jersey Oil & Gas announced today that is has entered into an agreement to acquire the entire share capital of CIECO V&C (UK) Limited, which is currently owned by two international entities headquartered in Japan. The acquisition secures an additional 12% working interest in Licence P2170 (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d), which provides Jersey Oil & Gas with 100% of the licence. The licence contains the majority of the Verbier oil discovery in addition to three drill ready prospects: Verbier Deep, Wengen and Cortina. The acquired entity has approximately £15M of tax losses which will provide value to Jersey Oil & Gas. Consideration will consist of £150k in cash and contingent payments of i) £1.5M upon field development plan approval of Verbier within P2170 (as already discovered) by the OGA ii) £1.0M upon the 1st anniversary of attainment of first oil. The acquisition is conditional on OGA approval amongst other technicalities, which we do not anticipate will be problematic. The acquired entity will be free of debts.
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Oil rose to the highest in nearly three months with positive Covid-19 vaccine developments paving the way for a more sustained recovery in oil demand.
Futures rose 5% in New York this week for a third straight weekly gain as Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE requested emergency authorisation of their Covid vaccine Friday. Moderna Inc also released positive interim results from a final-stage trial and said it is close to seeking emergency authorisation. Still, further gains were limited by broader market declines amid a dispute between the White House and the Federal Reserve over emergency lending programmes.
Even with vaccines on the horizon, a recovery in oil demand faces obstacles with governments under pressure to tighten restrictions and curb the spread of the virus. UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson's officials are considering tougher pandemic rules placed on broader regions of England next month after a national lockdown is set to end and the country returns to its tiered system. Meanwhile, the shift toward working from home may have a lasting chill on gasoline demand, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George.
The recent climb in headline prices has been accompanied by significant moves in timespreads, where traders bet on the price of oil in different months. The spread between West Texas Intermediate for December 2021 delivery and the following month moved to backwardation, while the closely watched gap between December 2021 and 2022 WTI contracts is close to also flipping.
West Texas Intermediate for December delivery, which expired Friday, rose 41 cents to settle at $42.15 a barrel.
The January contract rose 52 cents to end the session at $42.42 a barrel.
Brent for January settlement gained 76 cents to $44.96 a barrel. The contract rose 5.1% this week.
Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine could be the first to be cleared for use, but first it must undergo a thorough vetting. The filing could enable its use by the middle to the end of December, the companies said in a statement. Yet, it could take at least three weeks for a US Food and Drug Administration decision.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Acquisition of CIECO P2170 interest
Companies: JOG JYOGF TPC1
Savannah’s acquisition of a key strategic Nigerian gas asset with strong growth potential has been ignored by the market. Its significant exploration success in Niger has also gone unrewarded. Delivery of the strong free cash flow potential these assets offer will re-rate the shares, which are materially undervalued. Management’s tenacity in getting the Seven Energy acquisition across the line alongside the impressive early progress with the acquired assets should give investors confidence. We initiate with a Buy rating and risked-NAV based price target of 49p/sh.
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
Trifast has reported FY21 interim results that highlight the tough operating conditions with material falls in revenue, and operating leverage driving sharp reductions in profitability. The c.£16m equity raise helped to cushion the financial impact and the ongoing recovery exiting the first half provides some optimism for the Group heading in to FY22. We reinstate our buy recommendation.
Companies: Trifast plc (TRI:LON)Trifast plc (25D:BER)
Today's news & views, plus announcements from KGF, MRO, UU, BAB, BRW, FUTR, GNS, HICL, LIO, AEXG, FUL, KWS
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While a three-year plan would have been more than enough, the new CEO delivered a roadmap for the next ten years. The idea is to show how Tullow’s existing assets can generate sufficient cash for the next decade. Discipline is key, with deleveraging as top priority. Spending is on a tight budget ($2.7bn for the next ten years) with 90% of it going to develop the West African assets. The quest to regain investors’ trust continues.
Companies: Tullow Oil plc