What a difference a quarter makes

A mixed performance at Silver Wheaton’s (SLW) silver division was trumped by an exceptional performance at its gold division in Q416, such that the company’s financial results materially outperformed our prior estimates for Q416 as well as SLW’s own guidance at the time of its Q316 results. As a consequence, sales and cash flows derived by SLW from gold operations exceeded those from silver for the first time ever.

Q3 in perspective and Q4 preview

Silver Wheaton’s (SLW) Q316 results were characterised by exceptionally strong production from its gold assets, supported by record quarterly output at Salobo and Minto and a strong performance at 777. Production from SLW’s silver assets was in line with our expectations. However, a 20.0% under-sale of silver relative to production (towards the upper end of the historical range) and a 22.1% under-sale of gold resulted in a return of inventory to more normal levels. This detracted from financial

Q3 results scheduled for 9 November

Silver Wheaton’s (SLW’s) Q316 results are scheduled for release after market close on Wednesday 9 November. Our forecasts for Q316 have been adjusted to account for actual precious metals prices that were marginally higher in Q3 than previously predicted (eg US$19.60/oz vs US$19.44/oz Ag and US$1,335/oz vs US$1,333/oz Au), but production that we estimate to have been marginally lower (eg 13,355koz silver equivalent vs 13,657koz).

Going for gold

Silver Wheaton’s (SLW’s) Q216 earnings were within 2.5% of our forecast and almost 50% better than the previous quarter (Q116). Performance was buoyed by record gold sales, driven by the continued ramp up at Salobo, a record production performance at Sudbury (which was almost 6,000oz ahead of our expectations), continued outperformance at Antamina (for a third consecutive quarter) and inventory drawdown (for a second consecutive quarter). As a result of increased precious metals’ prices, as well

Forecasts weighted to H2

After four quarters in which the production of both gold and silver achieved successive new records, output attributable to Silver Wheaton (SLW) moderated in Q116 – albeit to only the second-best ever – with good quarterly performances (again) from Antamina and Salobo offset by headwinds at San Dimas and SLW’s ‘other’ assets. However, sales of material closely approximated production, with the result that inventories decreased by 0.9Moz AgE.

Buying future growth

On 30 March, Silver Wheaton (SLW) announced a bought deal whereby a syndicate of underwriters would buy 30,125,000 common shares in the company at a price of US$16.60/share for aggregate gross proceeds of c US$500m plus an over-allotment option of a further 4,518,000 shares at the same price for proceeds of an additional c US$75m. One day later, on 31 March, the deal size was increased by 10% pro rata and it closed on 7 April (at which point SLW also took the opportunity to close its normal cour

Exceeding expectations

Notwithstanding a maiden contribution from Antamina, a strong performance at Silver Wheaton’s (SLW) gold division was complemented by an equally impressive performance from its silver division, with records set in both the production and sales of precious metals, as each of its cornerstone assets (Salobo, Penasquito, San Dimas and Antamina) performed in tandem. Constancia – which is in the process of ramping up – also performed better than our expectations. As a result, attributable silver-equiv

Q415e results, Cotabambas analysis and CRA

Silver Wheaton’s (SLW) Q4/FY15 results are scheduled for release on 16 March and will include the Antamina gold stream for the first time. Average gold and silver prices in the three-month period were slightly below our previous forecasts, at US$1,104/oz (vs US$1,112/oz) and US$14.75/oz (vs US$14.87/oz), respectively. Notwithstanding the inclusion of Antamina, SLW’s continued production guidance of 230,000oz Au for FY15 is indicative of a very strong Q4 for the gold division, in particular. Q4 i

Q3 results and Antamina stream purchase

Excluding a US$154.0m impairment charge relating to its 777-mine gold stream beyond 2020 (which was in any case omitted from our long-term forecasts), Silver Wheaton’s (SLW) Q315 results were closely in line with our expectations. PBT was 3.5% higher than our forecast; PAT was 2.6% lower due to a higher than expected tax charge. More significantly, SLW has acquired a new silver stream from the world-class Antamina copper mine in Peru that has caused us to increase both our earnings forecasts and

Tax and other matters

On 24 September, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) issued notices of reassessment of tax to Silver Wheaton (SLW). The notices were not unexpected and were consistent with its earlier, 6 July notice, in which it advised that it was seeking C$273m (US$205m, US$0.50/share) in tax and transfer pricing penalties for 2005-10. However, the 24 Sept notices did also quantify interest and ‘other penalties’ at C$81m (US$60m, US$0.15/share), so that the total that it is seeking is C$353m (US$265m, US$0.66/sha

Tax developments and revised forecasts

The Canadian Revenue Authority (CRA) has proposed that it reassess Silver Wheaton’s tax treatment such that C$715m (US$567m) of income in the years 2005-2010 is re-characterised as earned by the parent, rather than a foreign subsidiary. SLW estimates that the federal and provincial tax associated with such a reassessment could be in the order of US$150m (26.5% implied marginal rate), or US$0.37/share. The CRA is also seeking a transfer pricing penalty of C$72m (US$57m, or US$0.14/share). Silver

Europe specialist with strong valuation discipline

The European Investment Trust (EUT) is a focused portfolio of continental European companies chosen for their ability to outperform the market on a five-year view. Valuation is a key tenet of the investment process, with the manager working on the basis that the best-performing stocks will be those with a year five P/E ratio of 11x or less. Because of the strong valuation discipline, the portfolio may underperform peers in a bull market, although both NAV and share price total returns have been

Alien Metals - Hancock Project, Mining Lease Granted

Alien today reports intraday that the Western Australian Government has granted a mining licence for the Hancock iron ore project for a 21-year term. The granting of the mining licence is the latest milestone delivered by Alien as it advances the project towards development and production.

SP Angel Morning View: Copper prices hit $9,700/t as China smelts concentrates for zero charge Tc/Rc

SP Angel Morning View: Gold resilient as US interest rates climb on long-term inflation concerns

NextSource Materials - Initiation

NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat

I3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada royalty assets sale

I3 has announced the sale of the majority of its royalty interests in Canada, for US$24.8m cash. This allows the company to fully repay amounts drawn on its debt facility and create a working capital surplus, giving I3 significant additional funding flexibility going forward

Jubilee Metals - Operational Update Q3 FY2024

Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August

DEC FY23 Results Update

DEC reported FY23 results which were in line with expectations and announced the acquisition of joint venture assets from Oaktree along with an updated capital allocation framework.

LIBERUM: New Energy Nuggets: Hydrogen - the future is green

SP Angel Morning View: Global Li-ion battery demand reaches all-time in Q1 2024

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Gulf Marine Services (GMS LN) - Contract award

GMS has announced a new contract award, at improved day rates, adding to order book and overall revenue momentum.

Challenger Energy (CEG LN) - £1.5m strategic investment in Challenger

Challenger has announced a £1.5m investment in the company from investor Charlestown Energy. This now allows Challenger to be fully funded for the foreseeable future as it works towards closure of its significant Uruguay farm out to Chevron, and the US$12.5m cash payment to be received once this is achieved.

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Increasing further the size of the prize

• The South Lahan area on Block 58 is estimated to hold 55-523 mmbl prospective resources (P90-P10 case) with a mean case of 251.8 mmbbl prospective resources across six prospects in the Ara Carbonate. • Combined with the previously disclosed prospective resources of the Fahd area in the north-eastern part of Block 58, Tethys Oil’s unrisked recoverable prospective resources on the block are estimated to be 435.9 mmbbl (Pmean). • The geological chance of success ranges from 6% to 11% for the six

Is there a “big-picture” change in the cards?

We note that this morning’s announcement by Aminex for a significant potential resource increase in the Ruvuma basin. We believe that the recent pullback in the share price (likely due to delays in the first gas production schedule) provide a good risk/reward opportunity, especially given the future potential in next 12-24 months, highlighted by today’s announcement.

Morning Note – 4 April 2024