Knaus Tabbert - Top 3 manufacturer of leisure vehicles in Europe

Knaus Tabbert is a top three manufacturer of motorhomes, caravans and camper vans in Europe, with products in the premium and luxury segment. In recent years, manufacturing has been increasingly standardised and optimised (eg the use of standardised components across products), which gives the company a high degree of flexibility to produce different models and brands at multiple locations. Knaus Tabbert maintains long-standing and reliable partnerships with more than 500 dealers in 25 European

Slower volume growth and a focus on operational efficiency on the 2024 menu (Knaus Tabbert)

Slower volume growth and a focus on operational efficiency on the 2024 menu EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2023 : € 5.51 vs 5.45 +1.17% 2024 : € 6.79 vs 7.59 -10.4% Following the Q3 results, we confirm our FY23 forecasts and reduce our FY24E EPS. In 2024, the management expects lower year-on-year sales growth than in FY23 (i.e. <+33% as suggested by the FY23 outlook), primarily due to challenging comparable volume. However, pricing should continue to contribute to growth as the new 2024 m

Q3 23 as expected and a glance at FY24

Knaus Tabbert has published unsurprising Q3 23 results, in line with the upward revision of its forecasts for FY23 announced at the end of September. Now that the product mix is improving on the back of a better supply situation, the challenge for the management is to convince investors that demand for leisure vehicles can be decoupled from demand for cars. Looking into FY24, the Management CEO sees more contained growth than in FY23 with a focus on improving the cost base and NWC.

Winding down cost headwinds

Knaus Tabbert upgraded its FY23 guidance, now meeting our forecasts. We therefore confirm our FY23e EPS (up 92% vs FY22’s) and reiterate our positive view on the stock. The adjusted EBITDA margin was raised to 8.5-9.0% from 7.5-8.5% (AV: 8.7%), and the top line was specified in the range €1.35-1.45bn (AV: €1.45bn). This is backed by a trimmed assumption on cost headwinds for H2 23. However, any read-across with the rest of the auto industry is unlikely.

Q2 23: The low end of the guidance looks out of reach

KTAG reported very strong Q2 23 results beating consensus estimates both on revenue (by 7%) and adj. EBITDA (by 20%). Surprisingly the FY23 guidance (strong revenue growth and Adj. EBITDA margin of 7.5-8.5%) remained unchanged, while it is becoming increasingly clear that the group has legs to deliver well above this. We will be raising our FY23 forecasts on the back of this strong print and confirm our positive view on the stock.

Q1 23: sparkling operating performance tempered by limited visibility

After a preliminary set of Q1 23 results beating estimates and confirming the FY23 guidance, all eyes were on the order backlog development and FCF generation. The first came in unreconcilable due to artificial limitation, while the second remained muted despite the strong operating performance. Overall, the positive risk of a guidance upgrade seems to have been dampened by sticky FCF generation once gain this year unless visibility recovers faster than the management currently expects.

The preliminary Q123 figures topped the consensus, with the smoothing in chassis supply filling the production capacity.

KTAG’s preliminary top-line and margin met our above-consensus estimates for Q1 23 and the management confirmed its prudent FY23 guidance. Easing supply chain bottlenecks in Q1, highlighted recently by a number of Auto companies, helped the group fill its under-utilized production capacity. The figures on the sustainability of demand will need to be closely watched on 10 May but the margin is finally ticking up. We confirm our positive view on the stock and see an increasing likelihood that the

Preliminary FY22: welcome delivery on the guidance

Knaus Tabbert released preliminary FY22 results in line with guidance and consensus expectations as the multi-brand strategy supported the volume output in Q4. This underpins our argument that achieving the margin guidance should not be an issue. While WC management remains a key watch point, we expect the Q4 22 FCF to improve the balance sheet health after a weak Q3 22. An update on the mid-term target would be welcomed.

Seeing light at the end of the tunnel?

Knaus Tabbert released mixed Q3 22 results in a seasonally weak quarter. However, the supply of chassis greatly improved in September, weighing on FCF but calling for a strong Q4. Therefore, the FY22 outlook was confirmed. Looking into FY23, production capacity is highly loaded with an order book at record level (in value terms). So far, no demand slowdown has been seen even with the implementation of price hikes. This supports our view that the caravanning sector could be inflation-proof.

Knaus Tabbert at 2022 Baader Investment Conference

Marc Hundsdorf (CFO) represented KTAG at the BIC22. He made positive comments across the board as the key highlight was on the utilisation of plants with the supply chain allowing for shifts to run full speed and pushing the company to discuss an increase in the number of weekly hours worked. The contribution from multi-sourcing is doing quite well but does not remove the threats coming from Russia-Ukraine. However, we expect the company to stick to its FY22 guidance, a must-do to regain investo

Supply constrained-Q2 marked by reassuring order intake

Knaus Tabbert released Q2 results in line with expectations, i.e affected by supply-chain constraints and overstaffing. Positive comments and figures were shared on order intake, showing that demand remains strong despite a worsening economic environment, extended delivery times and rising prices. Multisourcing has started quite well with the MAN chassis in Q2. Going forward, KTA is set to add VW ‘Bulli’ T6-based CUVs to its range, an awaited broadening and premiumization of the van offering, wh

Aligning with the latest profit warning (Knaus Tabbert)

Aligning with the latest profit warning EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2022 : € 2.55 vs 4.43 -42.5% 2023 : € 5.36 vs 5.83 -8.11% Following Knaus Tabbert's guidance cut, we have slashed our FY22 EBITDA margin forecasts, and adopted a more cautious view on the speed of recovery of profitability in H1 23. The multiplication of chassis suppliers, and the on-time delivery of expansion-related investments, argue for a quick catch-up once supply-chain bottlenecks ease. Although, the meagre improve

Preliminary Q2 22: disappointing guidance update following a weak quarter

Knaus Tabbert, at last, has put figures in its FY22 guidance with >€1bn in sales and more than 6% as the adjusted EBITDA margin, while outpacing last year’s figure in absolute terms. This is the result of continued supply-chain bottlenecks but amplified by the (too?) early new hires as part of the expansion plan. This has been topped with a preliminary adjusted EBITDA of €25.5m for H1 22, implying the need for a c. 30% cut to our FY22 forecasts.

Weak Q1 22 as expected; the demand-backed confidence was reiterated

Knaus Tabbert released Q1 21 results that were affected by supply-chain constraints as expected. The wording of the guidance was slightly amended but plans for FY22 were confirmed. A quantitative guidance should be issued with the H1 22 publication. The gradual increase in multisourcing will be key to rebuilding margins as the production capacities are ready and orderbook filled for the rest of the year (average unit price +24% yoy).

A weaker economic environment triggering motorhome demand?

The FY21 results were fully in line. Our figures imply a blue-sky scenario of the qualitative FY22 guidance. Price increases to compensate for increased input costs are expected in the range of 6-8%. The record-high backlog continues to cover almost a year of production with an average unit price up by 18% yoy. While this looks counter-intuitive for recreational products, we do not expect the higher prices to weigh on demand.

PROGRESSIVE: Watkin Jones: H1 in-line amid reviving investor appetite

Watkin Jones’s guidance for FY24E is unchanged in its trading update for the first half to 31 March. We maintain our forecasts for the full year and introduce half-year estimates, in line with reiterated guidance that performance will be significantly H2 weighted. The group confirms a continuing gradual recovery in appetite among institutional investors to forward fund its build-to-rent (BTR) and student developments. We believe this should gather pace as the direction of interest rates becomes

Ceres Power Holdings - Strategic partnerships powering growth

Ceres Power Holdings’ innovative technology uses electrolysis to produce green hydrogen and solid oxide fuel cells to generate power. In a year where it moved to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, it recorded revenue growth of 13% and gross margin expansion to 61% (the highest in the sector, according to management), but is yet to record an operating profit (FY23 operating loss of £59.4m versus £54.0m in FY22). Ceres continued its strategy to drive innovation and technology across sol

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Strategic growth drivers show their value in challenging trading conditions

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) has announced its FY24 full-year results, which are in line with the headline figures from its February trading update. A record year for Licensing and a strong performance in the key North America market helped to offset a challenging consumer environment in other geographies, most notably the UK. While this backdrop is set to persist in FY25E, the group will continue to focus on its strategic growth drivers, notably North America and Licensing, to deliver sharehold

Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) - A chink of light

Gooch has issued a positive update for H1. Trading has started to recover with stocking levels normalising at industrial and medical devices customers. The outlook is positive with growth returning, and management has confirmed our full year estimates (adjusted for the disposal of EM4). The order book and order flow appear healthy, and net debt is comfortable. Gooch clearly still has plenty to do to lift operating margins from a lacklustre 8.1%, but the transformation plan appears to be back on

Surface Transforms - Fund raise for the profitable growth phase

SCE is raising £16m through a placing (and up to a further £3m through open offer) to fund substantial expansion and additional working capital. This will enable the Group to grow to £75m revenue capacity in the near term, commence the build and equipping of a new factory and then (with internally generated free cash flow) scale to £150m revenue capacity and beyond. With a contracted order book of £190m and a prospective pipeline of £400m, this is clearly the time to seize the opportunity. The e

Solid State - Anticipating record adjusted PBT in FY24

Solid State’s trading update affirms the sustained strength in demand throughout H224, resulting in record FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT ahead of prior consensus of £155m and £12.5m, respectively. This is attributable to the earlier-than-expected delivery of a NATO contract. As a result, consensus FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT estimates have been raised by c 6% and c 20%, with respective FY25 estimates declining commensurately.

Zeus: Video Games Sector Quarterly review - January 2024

Subsector price performance: In the fourth quarter to 29 December 2023 all but the AAA publishers and platform subsector saw share price declines. The UK PC and Console focused subsector was again the worst performing subsector (-26.2%) over the quarter and LTM (-70.1%).

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Surface Transforms - New guidance – forecasts under review

Surface Transforms has issued new revenue guidance for FY24, with the company now expecting revenues in the range £17.5-22m. We are withdrawing our previous forecasts for FY24 and withdrawing our price target while we review the impact of the new guidance.

Time to focus on growth ambitions

AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. ("a.k.a. Brands" or the "company"), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million. The company's brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destinatio

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 Mar 2024

Banquet Buffet*** Abingdon Health 9.25p £11.3m (ABDX.L) The lateral flow contract development and manufacturing organisation announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2023. Revenue increased 117% to £2.4m (H1 2023: £1.1m). The Adjusted EBITDA loss decreased 47% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.2m). Furthermore, reduction in operating loss of 50% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.4m). The Board therefore expects that H2 2024 revenue will be significantly improved compared with H1 2024

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - First modular ammonia cracker system

AFC has unveiled a groundbreaking modular ammonia cracker system demonstrating viable and scaleable production of hydrogen in the UK using this method. The cracker system is designed to deliver 140 tonnes of fuel cell grade hydrogen each year. Hydrogen from the plant will initially be targeted for sale into AFC’s UK H-Power Generator deployments, including those with Speedy Hydrogen Solutions. Along with the recent purchase of the mobile storage and distribution assets of Octopus Hydrogen, AFC c

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Delivering to strategy against an unhelpful global backdrop

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) continues to deliver on its key strategic initiatives and growth drivers despite a challenging global backdrop. The group’s FY23 performance showed flat revenue, with adjusted underlying PBT rising £0.1m to £12.6m. Net cash dropped back to £15.4m, with the total dividend maintained at 3.5p. The star performers were Licensing (reported revenue +25%), the Morris & Co brand (+16%) and the US market (+20%). Our forecast revisions assume more modest sales progression, wit

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Strategic growth pillars bolster results

Sanderson Design Group has delivered its full-year trading update to 31 January 2024. Group revenue has eased back 3.1% to £108.5m on a reported basis, following the 2% decline in H1. The strongest performances were delivered by the strategic growth cornerstones of Licensing and North America, offset by challenging market conditions in the UK, Europe and the Rest of the World. A strong balance sheet saw year-end cash rise to £16.2m, compared with £15.4m at year-end FY23. Having traded in line wi