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Advantage reported third quarter financial and operating results in line with our expectations (CFPS $0.15 vs. GMPFE $0.15 vs. consensus $0.17). There are no changes to its outlook. Cash generation has not been this low since 2Q18 though for 4Q19e we are projecting 49% higher AFFO q/q on signs of price recovery in the domestic natural gas space. Liquids production was up once again, +22% q/q sequentially and +74% y/y, and with the advent of the Tidewater operated Pipestone gas plant in 4Q19e, sh
Companies: Advantage Energy Ltd
Advantage, through drilling 4x wells, has announced the successful delineation and appraisal of its entire 47 section (100% WI) land block at Progress in the Montney fairway, further announcing the discovery of a Montney light oil pool stretching across the entirety of its land holdings. Of the 4x wells drilled, Advantage has provided test rates from the most recent 16-36-77-9W6 well, which is of particular importance thanks to the implementation of an updated completion design replete with hi
Advantage reported 1Q19 results which were largely in line, as production of 44,900 boe/d and funds flow of $0.26/sh overlaid both GMPFE and consensus estimates.
Advantage reported fourth quarter financial and operating results that were ahead of our expectations and consensus (CFPS $0.25vs. GMPFE $0.22 vs. consensus $0.23). The company previously reported its reserves as outlined in our prior note. We thought it was a strong report. Advantage’s guidance is unchanged. There are no material changes to our forecast. We continue to view this liquids rate of change growth story as very credible.
Advantage announced third quarter financial and operating results that were in line with our expectations and consensus. The company has refined and expanded its longer-term view, tentatively tabled in March 2018. Under its new 3-year outlook, liquids growth into 2021e is robust, anticipating an exit rate of upwards of 14,000 bbl/d, of which ~82% of liquids is condensate/light oil. Importantly, this is accomplished on projected cash generation at strip, with its D/CF (trailing) on strip decreas
Advantage announced second quarter financial and operating results that were in line with our expectations, and consensus in aggregate. During 2Q18, Advantage did not conduct any significant drilling or completion operations, as 88% of capital spending was directed to infrastructure projects, including the 150 mmcf/d Glacier gas plant expansion. Drilling is slated to resume in 3Q18e.
Advantage announced first quarter financial and operating results that were in line with our expectations and consensus in aggregate. There are no changes to its 2018e outlook, characterized by $175 mm capex to achieve 40,000-42,500 boe/d for 2018e (~229 mmcf/d & 1,750-1,850 bbl/d). Advantage did revise its outlook ~10 days ago as described in our comment dated April 23rd, 2016. Liquids volume were 27% behind in the reported period, but the company anticipates an effective double or more for
The stocks on the GMP FirstEnergy Best Ideas List represent our highest conviction BUY recommendations with an expected return of 20% or more over the next 12 months. The investment thesis for each name on the list is laid out in this report.
Companies: CNQ AAV TNZ PXX KEL RRX SPE WCP PXT SES PPL
Advantage’s 2Q16 financial results were in line with expectations given a prior operational update in early July. The Company’s Montney land base now stands at 150 net sections given 12 (100% WI) new sections added to its Montney land base in 1H16, including 7 net sections around its core Glacier property estimated to boost the Company’s Montney well inventory by 10%. Based on implied returns of ~17% to our revised 12-month target price of $10.25 per share (up from $10.00 per share prior), we ar
Impact: Neutral to slightly positive. Advantage's 2Q16 financial results matched our expectations given a prior operational update, while 12 (100% WI) sections acquired in 1H16, particularly 7 net sections directly offsetting its core Glacier block, hold immediate drilling opportunities and will increase the Company's estimated drilling inventory here by ~10%.
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVETF YO
Advantage grew its corporate production to 35,000 boe/d including liquids volumes of 1,050 bbl/d in 2Q16, which is in line to slightly ahead of our prior forecast.Strong well performance, particularly from the Lower and Middle Montney, continued to drive reductions to the Company’s operating costs to $0.30/mcfe
(down 14% over 1Q16 levels) and resulted in record low total cash costs of $0.60/ mcfe in the period.We have maintained both our Top Pick recommendation and $10.00 per share target price
Impact: Positive. In 2Q16e, Advantage's corporate and liquids production are consistent with our estimates while strong well performance, particularly in the Lower and Middle Montney, continued to drive reductions to the Company's operating costs to $0.30/mcfe (down 14%) and resulted in record low total cash costs of $0.60/mcfe in the period.
Advantage reported first quarter financial and operating results that were in line to below expectations, with cash flow lower solely based on lower than anticipated realized hedging gains. The Company will have demonstrated one of the strongest y/y debt-adjusted growth rates in a while, keeping in mind that volumes are ~24% higher than that reported in 1Q16. The Company’s low cost structure remains intact. We have reduced our 12-month target price mildly to $10.00/sh and continue to offer a Top
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PSK TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS LRE NVA PPY PNE RRX RMP SGY TET TNZ CKE GXE IKM ROAOF MQL RE SPE SKX TVE TVETF YGR YO
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Advantage Energy Ltd.
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Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market
Companies: Zenith Energy Ltd.
Alternative Resource Capital
We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems
Companies: Chariot Limited
RCS-1 flow testing results
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
EQTEC has reached a key milestone in its Southport energy from waste project with the appointment of Anaergia as EPC and O&M partner. This is a complex project using multiple waste treatment solutions and we see EQTEC’s inclusion as a demonstration that it’s technology can combine with these to create an optimal outcome.
Companies: EQTEC PLC
Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th
Companies: Wentworth Resources PLC
Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened.
• As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time.
• PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Wentworth has announced the acquisition of a 25% non-operated working interest in the Ruvuma PSA from Scirocco Energy for an initial consideration of US$3m plus contingent payments of up to US$13m. The consideration is structured to ensure that the majority is only paid in a success case, providing Wentworth with a low-cost entry point into a high growth opportunity. The transaction has the potential to nearly double the Company's production by 2026 and add over 190Bcf of 2P reserves on a Final
• 2022 YTD gross production was 92 mmcf/d, ahead of our expectations of 89 mmcf/d for 1H22.
• The FY22 production guidance remains unchanged at 75-85 mmcf/d. It looks very conservative in our view.
• The company currently holds US$26 mm in cash and no debt. This is in line with our expectations.
• TPDC continues to be current with regards to receivables.
• We re-iterate our target price of £0.45 per share.
Steady growth and dividend
Our Core NAV for the company based on its 2P reserves only i
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What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Immediate acquisitions (IME.L) is to re-join AIM via a Reverse Takeover of Fiinu Holdings Limited. Once complete the Company is proposing to change its name to Fiinu Group plc. Fiinu intends to be a provider of a consumer banking product, the Plugin Overdraft ®, which is designed to provide customers with an overdraft facility without having to change their current account or req
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Savannah, which operates the Barroso lithium mine project in Portugal, reports today the results of its locked cycle test to determine optimal flotation reagents to confirm lithium recoveries and spodumene concentrate grades. Savannah is aiming for a 5.5%Li2O concentrate grade with a near 80% recovery. The reported work confirms that these should be possible and that in larger scale, bulk testing these parameters may improve. The work also highlights that there are still optimisations to be h
Companies: Savannah Resources Plc
• The RCS-1 well was flow tested at oil rates of up 1,872 bbl/d (936 bbl/d net to Arrow) of 30 API crude from the C7B sands.
• The zone was tested for 33 hours at an average oil rate of 1,076 bbl/d (538 bbl/d net to Arrow) with no formation water. Production will start next week at ~1,000 bbl/d (500 bbl/d net) in order to minimize water cut. We understand that the zone has the potential to produce 2,000-3,000 bbl/d of oil.
• This is again above our expectations (~800 bbl/d).
• The shallower C7