Auctus on Friday - 10/07/2020

PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price £0.45: 1Q20 results/Bretaña expected to restart in July – 1Q20 financials are in line with expectations and 1Q20 production had been reported previously. At the end of 1Q20, current trade and other payables had been reduced to ~US$45 mm compared to ~US$55 mm at YE19. Most importantly. PetroTal continues to expect the Bretaña field to be re-opened this month. The contingent liability with Petroperu is estimated at US$25 mm at the current oil price and the

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

RockRose Energy (RRE LN): All cash offer to purchase RockRose for 1,850p/share | I3 Energy Energy (I3E LN): Binding purchase and sale agreement for Gain Energy confirmed

DEEP DIVE INTO E&P INDEBTEDNESS

In this note, we analyze the indebtedness of 35 international E&Ps publicly listed in the UK, Canada, Norway, Sweden and the USA. For each company, we look at (1) cash position, (2) level and nature of debt (including covenants), (3) debt service and principal repayment framework and (4) Brent price required from April to YE20 to meet all the obligations and keep cash positions intact. We also estimate YE20 cash if Brent were to average US$20/bbl from April to YE20. While the oil demand and oil

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY

Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C: Initiating coverage | 88 Energy (88E LN/AU): Acquisition in Alaska | BP (BP LN): Transaction in Alaska with Hilcorp renegotiated | Columbus Energy Resources (CERP LN): Oil discovery in Trinidad | Premier Oil (PMO LN) and Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN): Sea Lion farm out (Falklands) exclusivity period extended | BP (BP LN): 1Q20 results | Equinor (EQNR NO): Dry hole in Norway | Getech (GTC LN): Business update | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Business update in the UK North

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB LN): Dividend cut for the first time since the Second World War | Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN): Navitas remains committed to farm-in, terms extended | RockRose Energy (RRE LN): Trading update, production remains strong, well hedged this year | Ascent Resources* (AST LN): Further expansion into Cuba

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

RockRose Energy (RRE LN): FY19 results underline year of significant growth | Columbus Energy Resources (CERP LN): Goudron IPSC extended to June 2020

FY’19 results: sizeable cash balance and no debt shows RRE’s resilience in current market

RockRose (RRE) reported adjusted EBITDA of US$98mm in 2019, slightly ahead of our forecast of US$96mm on production of 13.9kboe/d (19.4kboe/d proforma for the Marathon acquisition). CO2 emissions (operated assets only) were down by 18% in 2019. RRE ended 2019 with 61mmboe of 2P reserves plus 21mmboe of 2C reserves. We believe RRE is in a strong position to navigate the COVID-19 operational impacts and the financial impacts of a low oil price, given the large cash position on its balance sheet (U

AUCTUS MONDAY MORNING WEEKLY ROUND UP

88 Energy (88 LN/AU)/Premier Oil (PMO LN): Drilling update in Alaska | Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas (ECO LN/EOG CN): Update in Guyana | Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Acquisition in USA and production update | Parex Resources (PXT CN): Low capex programme and production update in Colombia | Total (FP FP): Significant discovery in Suriname | Aker BP (AKERBP NO): Small discovery on Norway | BP (BP LN): 1Q20 update and capex reduction | Providence Resources (PVR LN): US$3 mm equity raise | RockRose Energy (R

Auctus Monday Morning Weekly Round Up

Bahamas Petroleum Corporation (BPC LN): Delaying exploration activities in the Bahamas | i3 Energy (I3E LN): Canadian acquisition | Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): FY19 results | Cairn Energy (CNE LN): FY20 capex reduced but production guidance maintained | ENI (ENI IM): Capex reduction and new production guidance | Equinor (EQNR NO): Reducing spending | IGas Energy (IGAS LN): Update in the UK | Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN): FY19 results | Lundin Petroleum (LUP SS): Reducing dividends, inc

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

RockRose Energy (RRE LN): FY20 capex reduced by 25% | Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN): FY19 results, 6% increase in average production | Block Energy (BLOE LN): Acquisition of producing Block XIB (615 km2 ) and exploration Block IX (1,925 km2 ) | Upland Resources (UPL LN): Steady, if unexciting progress

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

Rockrose Energy (RRE LN): Drilling campaign on schedule | Cairn Energy (CNE LN): FY19 results, Cairn swings into profit | SDX Energy (SDX LN): Rabul-3 encounters 116ft of net pay, Egypt

Low-cost Cotton gas field acquisition provides long-term growth optionality

RockRose announced the acquisition of 100% of the 97bcf (16mmboe) Cotton gas field in the UK Southern Gas Basin, from private company Speedwell Energy, for a nominal upfront consideration. This gives RRE the opportunity to do some detailed technical work and assess the economics given the current low gas price environment, without any significant financial commitment. A larger, undisclosed consideration is payable upon a positive final investment decision. The acquisition gives RRE a ~20% boost

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

Premier Oil (PMO LN): Proposed UK North Sea Acquisitions, Financing and Extension of Credit Facilities | SDX Energy (SDX LN): 35% reserves upgrade at South Disouq | RockRose Energy (RRE LN): Year End Trading Update | Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LNP): Heads of Terms with Navitas Petroleum to farm-in to the Sea Lion

Trading statement and outlook: stock trading at unrestricted cash value

RockRose’s unrestricted cash increased US$34mm from end August 2019, largely on the back of lower than expected capex and a reduction in the restricted cash. Unrestricted cash at year end of US$316mm is the equivalent of £18.30/sh (in line with current share price) and increased from US$282mm in August. Total year end cash was US$371mm, marginally higher than US$368mm at end August 2019. Restricted cash of US$55mm was reduced from US$86mm over the same period. 2019 total dividend is expected to

Oil & Gas Daily Flow

Rockrose Energy (RRE LN): Seven wells planned by the end of 2020 | Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN): CPR confirms 2P reserves of 99.6MMboe (gross)

CMD - Broadening & deepening client relationships

FLASH: In-line trading update

A dose of morosity

No change in the narrative. Aviva’s ship sails on as usual. The PRT business is still going well, inflation remains an impediment to a strong P&C improvement, retail customers seem more interested in the rising cost of living than savings’ products and Aviva investors see no real signs of an improvement. This is the same story as in recent quarters and, in that context, our thesis remains the same.

'Airlines will be shocked when Covid leases run out and rates go up’

Critical Metals Plc - Molulu Operational Update - Target Price £1.14 ps

Event On the 15th May, Critical Metals plc released an operational update relating to their Molulu copper project in the DRC. Key Points 1. 6,500t of copper ore grading 3% copper has been mined 2. The mining focus is moving towards the high grade sulphide copper ore grading above 8.3% copper 3. No cobalt has been identified in the mining so far using hand-held XRF 4. Dewatering of the pits has begun with a trench decanting water from the small pit. Implications As soon as the road rehabilitation

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd -- Record revenues and more to come

Duke has released a Q1/24E trading update which points to a continuation of steady growth in recurring cash revenues and resilient underlying portfolio companies. Guidance for the quarter is for £6m of recurring cash revenues, and total cash revenues are expected to be c£7.5m once the buyout premium from Instor is accounted for. Duke's valuation looks very compelling at current levels with the FY24E dividend yield over 10% whilst being backed by FCF generation.

Morning Note – 30 May 2023

Acquisition of Silver Royalty

Trident Royalties Plc (AIM: TRR) has, this morning, announced the acquisition of two royalties and a production-linked milestone payment over the La Preciosa Silver Project, owned by Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd (TSX: ASM, mkt cap US$87m) in the State of Durango, Mexico. The consideration consists of US$7m cash to Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE, mkcap US$1.1bn) on closing with a further US$1m in either cash or shares at Trident's election upon receipt of the milestone payment. The acquisition is Tride

NAHL Group plc: AGM update: Continued progress in scaling the business for future growth

NAHL’s AGM statement released today, is encouraging as management continues to scale the businesses for further growth. As a result, the Board’s expectations for the full year remain unchanged and we make no alterations to our forecasts. As a reminder, these still call for a c.13% increase in adjusted PBT in 2023, c.170% in FY24 and a further c.70% in FY25. Our current fair value remains at 65p but this is likely to rise as the Group delivers on its significant potential.

WH Ireland: Avation - Market tailwinds highlighted in Bloomberg Intelligence event

Avation is a lessor of 35 commercial aircraft to a diversified client base of 17 airlines. Yesterday's Bloomberg Intelligence webinar event entitled ‘Aircraft Lessor Recovery and Innovation' reaffirmed a number of positive market trends for aircraft lessors at the present time. Key points included: i) structural deficits in the supply of turboprop aircraft in the coming years, with aircraft retirements expected to outpace limited production of new aircraft; ii) the strong recovery in air travel

Early Mover in UK Lab-grown Meat

BSF Enterprise Plc (BSF) is a biotechnology company focused on acquiring, combining, and building businesses in the lab-grown tissue space. It aims to achieve this through an acquisition-led growth strategy and has already acquired the tissue engineering and cellular agriculture company, 3D Bio Tissues.

LSE AIM - Market Screener (30 May 2023)

 The market capitalization of AIM stocks was £95.9bn as of 26 May 2023, down 3.7% since 14 April 2023. Among the top YTD winners, there were Celadon Pharmaceuticals (up 216.6%), Vast Resources (+325% YTD), B90 Holdings (+212.4%), Verditek (209.1%, MktCap £7.5mn), Star Phoenix Group (+175%), Inspecs Group (+166.3%). Among the bottom movers, were companies canceling admission to AIM: Applied Graphene Materials (-88%,), Circle Property (-93%, MktCap £1.2mn), Purplebricks Group (-93.1% on a possi

Very strong CY22 - CY23 upgraded 10%

Trading update indicates strong FY23 performance

XPS CMD articulates growth potential