In the week to 1 May the FTSE All Share rose 1.2% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.5% and 0.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+2.5%); Beazley (-0.2%) was the worst performer. The Q1 reporting season has begun: newsflow has been mixed with a number of US insurers reporting improved PBT/rates, but also loss creep, higher Q1 losses and warnings from brokers about stalling rate rises ahead of the key Jun/Jul US renewals. The 2018 hurricane season starts 1 June with consensus for sli
Companies: BEZ HUW HSX JLT LRE
In the week to 24 April the FTSE All Share rose 2.6% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.8% and 0.0% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performers were Helios* (+7.0%) and Beazley (+1.5%); Hiscox (-1.1%) was the worst performer. Following last week’s analysis of the issue of underinsurance with the 2017 cat losses, we look at the growing risk of a Californian earthquake – not necessarily in San Francisco but along the Hayward Fault. Latest analysis suggests an insured loss of cUS$30bn but an economic los
In the week to 17 April the FTSE All Share fell -0.3% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.5% and +0.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+4.0%); Helios* (-2.3%) and JLT (-0.8%) were the worst performers. Swiss Re’s sigma analysis of the 2017 insured losses highlights the material protection gap. It estimates the total insured losses from the 2017 catastrophes at US$144bn vs. total economic losses of US$337bn, giving a cat risk protection gap of US$193bn (57%). Herein lies a pot
In the week to 10 April the FTSE All Share rose 3.0% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.5% and +0.8% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+3.0%); Lancashire (-2.2%) was the worst performer. We look at the first forecasts for the 2018 hurricane season. These early estimates suggest a slightly elevated level of windstorm activity – and an increase in US landfall probability. Of course, it is the if/where of the latter that holds the greatest risk of insured loss and, in 2018, will be a
In the week to 3 April the FTSE All Share rose 0.4% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.8% and +0.8% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+2.8%); JLT (-1.9%) was the worst performer. This week we review the 1 April renewals, where prices were as muted as we expected. Ongoing competition dampened rate movements where accounts were loss free. It was always going to be a big ask to get those not affected by the 2017 cats to pay up – and they didn’t. Interestingly, M&A is picking up,
In the week to 27 March the FTSE All Share fell -1.0% vs. the Insurance Index at -1.8% and 0.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Beazley (+4.3%); Helios* (-3.1%) and Hiscox (-1.6%) were the worst performers. We remind investors of the growing cyber hacking threat to energy providers, especially in the US. Several speciality insurers are already teaming up with energy experts, eg Beazley and Energy Insurance Mutual, to look to provide customised cover for this risk but the insured ex
In the week to 13 March the FTSE All Share rose 0.1% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.7% and +3.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. As M&A speculation rose among the Bermudian underwriters, the best performer was Hiscox (+6.4%); Lancashire (-1.3%) wasthe worst performer. We often talk of the band of global specialist (re)insurers that Beazley, Hiscox and Lancashire belong to. In the table below, we rank the key players by market cap (in USD), splitting out the major European players. What stands out is the P
JLT’s FY2017 results were solid with overall good growth in Risk & Insurance and Employee Benefits (EB). The return to 5% organic growth was encouraging. The flagged headwinds and another cost transformation programme have caused some understandable indigestion: we believe the FD will ensure the cost savings are delivered by 2020. We concur that JLT must position itself as a global specialist (which means US expansion and IT systems/data investment) if it is to stay relevant - and continue to co
Companies: Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group
In the week to 6 March the FTSE All Share fell -1.6% vs. the Insurance Index at -2.7% and -0.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+3.3%); JLT (-6.4%) post its FY17 results, was the worst performer. This week we look at the data on actual US property/casualty rate changes in Q4 2017 and Jan 2018. This has a bearing on the outlook for (re)insurers and the drivers behind the latest M&A moves ie the AXA bid for XL Catlin at 1.5x NAV/2.0x TNAV and AIG’s acquisition of Validus
In the week to 27 February the FTSE All Share rose 0.5% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.9% and +1.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+5.6%); Helios* (-3.7%) and Beazley (-1.6%) were the worst performers. This week we review the FY2017 results from Beazley, Hiscox and Lancashire. Beazley reported the highest PBT and ROE (8.7%), helped by a strong investment yield. Lancashire’s loss was expected given its higher cat/reinsurance exposure and the 2017 losses. Hiscox was hit by FX lo
FY17 PBT (Norm) was broadly in line at £191.5m/EPS 58.5p. The 34.0p dividend was slightly better than we forecast. The story has always been about FY19 and beyond, when US Speciality comes on line as a profit stream, but (new) headwinds in FX and IFRS15 will act as a drag on revenue. JLT is also to embark on a Transformation Programme to cut costs by £40m by 2020. The strategy to create a global specialist broker makes sense/offers upside - but it’s all about delivery given another deferral of r
In the week to 20 February the FTSE All Share rose 1.3% vs. the Insurance Index at +1.2% and -1.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+0.2%); Lancashire (-14.6%) was the worst performer, reflecting the (overdone in our view) share price fall post its FY17 results. This week we look at the wide range of combined ratios being reported for 2017. The variation reflects the portfolio split, (short/long/cat etc), as well as the quality of underwriting (cf Aspen closing its unit). NB a
In the week to 13 February the FTSE All Share rose 0.4% vs. the Insurance Index at +3.6% and +2.7% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Beazley post its FY17 results (+4.8%); JLT (-0.6%) was the worst performer. We review the recent Alpha (Lloyd’s) Market Analysis. It reports a wide range of rate rises for most short tail lines at January 2018 and suggests there is potentially more to (gradually) come despite a ‘disappointing’ reinsurance renewal. This supports our view of rates: we con
In the week to 6 February the FTSE All Share fell -5.8% vs. the Insurance Index at -3.4% and -5.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The sector was inevitably caught up in the recent market correction, but valuations remain pretty robust. The best performer was Beazley (-3.6%); Hiscox (-7.0%) was the worst performer. The FY17 results season has kicked off: Beazley reports today, then Lancashire and Hiscox. We provide a broad comparison of the three insurers to highlight their differences – and a guide as t
In the week to 30 January the FTSE All Share fell -1.8% vs. the Insurance Index at +0.7% and -0.1% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+1.8%); JLT (-3.4%) was the worst performer. Allianz’s 2018 Risk Barometer reviews perils from more of an insurer viewpoint than the WEF survey. For the first time, BI and Cyber risk exposure are seen virtually on a par. Following the 2017 losses, natural catastrophe risks are back in the top three. Fear drives demand: encouragingly these are ma
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Today's results include few surprises in terms of cash outcomes, which are in-line with our FY21E forecasts. These record results come despite the year being challenged by Covid-19, evidencing the resilience of Duke's operating model and royalty partners. Post-period, 4 new investments have been concluded, which should help drive cash results higher over FY22E, despite a further 2 exits from the portfolio. As the company approaches near full deployment by FY23E, we expect to see FCF p/s and DPS
Companies: Duke Royalty Limited
Litigation Capital Management has released its results for FY21, reflecting on a positive year for the group in very challenging market conditions. Although well flagged, these set of results highlight the strength of LCM's investment process as it's maturing balance sheet continues to deliver strong returns on capital as key cases settle.
Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd
Companies: Real Estate Investors plc
Companies: Aquis Exchange Plc
NextEnergy Solar Fund’s investment in NextPower III ESG is delivering in terms of widening international exposure with NPIII following its recent project win in Spain with another in Poland. This is the first acquisition the vehicle has made in Poland and the project will be supported by a fifteen year CfD. We see NESF’s investment in NPIII ESG as delivering a diversified asset growth opportunity and so far this is proving to be the case.
Companies: Nextenergy Solar Fund
Gore Street continues to find good projects in the GB market and has today announced a 57MW project in Leicester. It is now more active in seeking projects beyond the UK and RoI in North America and Western Europe and we think there are significant opportunities in these geographies. The company now has a pipeline of 2.5GWh with 2GWh of that in new geographies and 160MWh of that under exclusivity. With these opportunities in mind the company has announced a placing at 107p.
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC
Following the successful completion of the Hawthorn disposal, towards the top-end of our £180-230m range, and the transformation to a pure retail property group we update forecasts and briefly set out our investment thesis ahead of the Group’s CMD. We estimate FFO for FY22F, FY23F and FY24F of 7.2p, 8.3p and 9.4p per share respectively; a 3-year CAGR of c35% over the 3.8p generated in FY21A. Post-Hawthorn, balance sheet metrics have markedly improved, flexibility enhanced, and refinancing risk r
Companies: NewRiver REIT plc
Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – Greenland agrees new economic aid with the US
Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Further drilling results from Kepez North
CATL (CATL N) – CATL may be joining the bidding war for Millennial Lithium Corp. as Chinese firms battle for EV material supply
Condor Gold* (CNR LN) – Senior mining engineer appointed to advance La India feasibility study
Cora Gold* (CORA LN) – Interims
Galileo Resources (GLR LN) – Sale of Kalahari Copper Belt licences expected to complete next week
Companies: AAU JAY CNR CORA GLR GGP POW RRR VUL SSW
NextEnergy’s JV with storage specialist Eelpower is an important strategic development. Storage demand is set to grow if the UK is to move towards its net zero targets and the combined attributes of the JV partners make it well suited to succeed here. For NESF it opens up a new route to asset growth in our view.
NextEnergy Solar Fund (NESF), which has the ability to invest up to 10% of its gross assets in energy storage, has announced a significant step into energy storage with the establishment of a £100m joint venture partnership with one of the leading battery storage specialists, Eelpower Limited (Eelpower). The joint venture is owned 70% by NESF and 30% by Eelpower. The partnership has also announced the signing of its maiden acquisition, a 50MW standalone battery storage project, which is ready to
Today's in-line results illustrate the financial impact from restrictions upon face-to-face Insurance sales over the past 15 months. However, they heavily mask the strategic momentum underway across the Group. Since the lifting of restrictions from June, Insurance is exhibiting a strong and accelerating rebound in demand, which should mark an inflection point for policyholder numbers and restore premium income to pre-pandemic levels over the medium-term. We expect the Group's other product lines
Companies: Personal Group Holdings Plc
Exactly one year ago, the FTSE 100 closed at 5,862, having fallen 100 points on the day, the lowest point since mid-May 2020, due in part, to the strength of sterling vs US$ at $1.34. One year on, the FTSE 100 has risen to 7,119, a rise of 21%, it remains 7% below the peak in January 2020. From an international viewpoint, US and European markets continue to trade at record highs. The US Federal Reserve is close to withdrawing some of its economic support this year as inflation picks up and the e
Companies: AMYT BAG BVC BRSD CLG CML FBD GDWN INV MACF MNZS MIO NRR NSF NBI MATD PREM QFI RUA SCS STVG SUR SNX UPGS VAST VLS
A disappointing earnings release coupled with low transparency on the Sandringham Financial Partners acquisition have led M&G’s share price to return to its pre-crisis level. While our valuation suggests a positive recommendation considering the low point, momentum remains uncertain.
Companies: M&G Plc
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What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Eurowag confirms its intention to undertake an initial public offering on the Main Market (Premium). The Offer would be expected to comprise both (i) new Ordinary Shares to be issued by the Company, raising gross proceeds of approximately EUR200m to support Eurowag's growth strategy and (ii) existing Ordinary Shares to be sold by existing Eurowag shareholders. Eurowag is a leading pan-European
Companies: ALS APP BOD DXRX EDR EOG KOO RBBS TRP UOG
Agronomics has announced a follow-on investment in existing portfolio company, Formo (previously LegenDairy Foods). The company has invested €3.15m in Formo's Series A funding, and now holds c5.9% of the enlarged share capital. The fundraise has generated a 7.5x uplift for Agronomics original €1m investment (Dec-19) and values Formo at c€180m (post-money) versus c€16m post-money value following the Seed round. Formo now becomes Agronomics largest holding, c9.1% and has delivered a net uplift in
Companies: Agronomics Limited