In the week to 28 November the FTSE All Share rose 0.6% vs. +0.3% for the Insurance Index and +0.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+2.2%); Beazley (-1.7%) was the worst performer. This week we flag how climate change is affecting US weather events – increasing the likelihood of large economic and (re)insured loss events but also creating new demand and opportunities for (re)insurers. Quoting is underway for the 1 Jan renewals: so far it looks like behemoths Swiss Re and Munic
Companies: BEZ HUW HSX JLT LRE NVA
In the week to 21 November the FTSE All Share was flat vs. 0.2% for the Insurance Index and -0.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+1.5%); Hiscox (-2.8%) was the worst performer. This week we flag various signs that point to a broader market turn. The fact that Swiss Re hopes for “substantial” rate rises is a positive sign it will happen, in our view. ILS prices have already risen – and why wouldn’t they? Hannover Re and MS Amlin comment that it is the wider lack of return that
Companies: BEZ HUW JLT LRE NVA
In the week to 14 November the FTSE All Share fell 1.5% vs. -0.9% for the Insurance Index and +0.8% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+2.5%); JLT (-1.1%) wasthe worst performer. Hampden forecasts rates at Lloyd’s will rise 6.3% across all classes but these will be restricted to loss affected lines (including UK Motor). However, some 70% of Lloyd’s estimated book (by premium) should see higher prices with rate reduction moderating in most other lines. This would be positive fo
In the week to 7 November the FTSE All Share rose 0.3% vs. -4.1% for the Insurance Index and -0.3% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+0.4%); Lancashire (-2.7%) was the worst performer. WTW’s market report predicts rates will rise in 2018 but also notes alternative capital is likely to dampen the upside. Based on its forecasts, key lines written at Lloyd’s will see rate raises in 2018. Lancashire should be an early beneficiary, but it’s also good news for Hiscox and Beazley –
In the week to 31 October the FTSE All Share fell 0.2% vs. +0.1% for the Insurance Index and +4.0% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+11.2%); Helios* (0%) and JLT (+1.8%) were the worst performers. We have moved to a sector positive stance (cf. report 31 Oct). We flag those syndicates proposing 2018 capacity pre-emptions, including Hiscox (S.33 +39%) and Beazley (S.623/6107 +15%/17%), which we see as a positive signal for rate expectations. Helios benefits with its 2018 c
In the week to 24 October the FTSE All Share rose 0.1% vs. +1.0% for the Insurance Index and +0.8% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Lancashire (+2.0%); Helios (-1.9%) and Beazley (-1.0%) were the worst performers. We flag (again) the growth potential for US flood (re)insurance cover. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma have highlighted that the NFIP is not fit for purpose; reforms are necessary and flood needs to be opened to the private market. We note that Hiscox is already positioned to b
In the week to 17 October the FTSE All Share fell 0.2% vs. +0.2% for the Insurance Index and +0.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+1.7%); Lancashire (-0.8%) was the worst performer. This week we look at the ‘slightly’ improving picture in US commercial rates (important for Lloyd’s as a leading E&S insurer). This stabilisation/moderation should accelerate into broader rate rises post Q3 cat losses and the increase in D&O class lawsuits. How far rate rises extend across non-aff
In the week to 10 October the FTSE All Share rose 0.9% vs. +2.6% for the Insurance Index and +1.6% for the Lloyd’s Index as loss sizes became clearer. The best performer was Hiscox (+2.3%); Helios (0%) and JLT (0.8%) were the worst performers. We look at the latest catastrophe loss estimates for Q3 but note 2017 is not yet done, with Hurricane Nate making landfall last week and ferocious wildfires in California. Increasingly, talk is of rate rises vs. ‘stability’ previously. NB Hiscox’s proposed
In the week to 3 October the FTSE All Share rose 2.5% vs. -0.9% for the Insurance Index and +5.4% for the Lloyd’s Index as loss sizes became clearer. The best performer was Hiscox (+7.0%); Helios (-5.5%) and Novae (0%) were the worst performers. We review the Lloyd’s H1 2017 results, which fell YoY but reflected low loss activity in H1: H2 has changed this and Lloyd’s will have large cat losses as these are exactly the exposures it (re)insures. Other news: Novae has now delisted and Beazley and
In the week to 26 September the FTSE All Share rose 0.1% vs. -1.6% for the Insurance Index and -1.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performers were Nove (+0.4% - the shares delist shortly) and JLT (-0.2%); Helios (-5.2%) and Lancashire (-4.1%) were the worst performers. We again focus on 2017 cat lossesfollowing AIR’s shock estimate for Maria at up to US$85bn, plusthe two Mexican quakes. The upper end of the current range of total insured loss estimates for FY17 (cUS$200bn) would move the dial
In the week to 19 September the FTSE All Share fell 1.5% vs. -2.0% for the Insurance Index and -1.2% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was JLT (+1.1%); Lancashire (-3.0%) was the worst performer. We take a ‘rough and ready’ view of how Hurricanes Harvey and Irma might impact 2017E PBT. These estimates come with major caveats – the market losses and hence the net losses to each business have yet to be fully calculated/communicated. We therefore urge caution: these figures should merely be
In the week to 22 August the FTSE All Share was flat vs. -2.7% for the Insurance Index and -0.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Helios (+2.5%); Hiscox (-2.6%) wasthe worst performer. We are in the peak period for Atlantic hurricanes with forecasters predicting above average activity. From a pricing viewpoint, we need a major claim. No cat losses mean good H2 17 profits, but also more capital/more rating pressure. 24 August is the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew hitting Florid
In the week to 15 Augustthe FTSE All Share fell 1.9% vs. -1.3% for the Insurance Index and -1.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Helios (0.0%); Lancashire (-3.4%) was the worst performer. This week we review the Hampden Market Outlook that HUR provides for its Lloyd’s Names clients. It estimates the average rate reduction YTD is -2% on the 2016 average. The pace of reduction is moderating, albeit the trend is still down. Margins are tight in many lines; we believe lower levels of l
The following tables summarise the H1 2017 results. Our report published 8 August reviewed the composition of the H1 ROE in more detail and today’s Money Bin collates and compares the interim results of all the UK insurers that have reported to date. We consider these results to be good given the more challenging trading backdrop. (Novae’s results reflect the issues it faces and hence our support for the AXIS offer). Underwriting margins are under considerable pressure but claims activity has be
Companies: BEZ HSX LRE NVA
In the week to 8 August the FTSE All Share rose 1.4% vs. +1.6% for the Insurance Index and +2.0% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+4.0%); Helios (-8.7%) and Novae (-0.7%) were the worst performers. This week we summarise the H1 results/ROE reported by the Lloyd’s insurers, RSA and the UK Motor/Home insurers. Overall, these were pretty good results against a mixed trading backdrop – boosted once again by relatively benign claims activity/weather losses and improved YoY invest
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Novae Group.
We currently have 124 research reports from 1
The quarter enjoyed the ongoing recovery in revenue margins and net provision releases further boosted by a portion of the announced tax gains. The question is not at what pace profitability will recover but instead at what pace will it normalise? In the meantime, the group is accumulating excess capital that will be returned to shareholders.
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group plc
Duke has announced its third new royalty partner since April's placing, with a C$8.3m (£4.8m) agreement with Creō-tech Industrial Group Inc (“Creō-tech”). This scheduled new partner is another buy & build platform, with follow-on deployments expected. It represents Duke's 12th current royalty partner and its first in North America, adding diversity in number and geography. This should further add to the anticipated step-up in quarterly cash revenues from Q2/22, after Q1/22's £2.9m record.
Companies: Duke Royalty Limited
The quarter enjoyed stronger-than-expected provision releases and a partial reversal of the first quarter negative equity adjustments, whereas the DTA remeasurement offset ongoing restructuring charges.
Companies: Barclays PLC
Companies: Oakley Capital Investments
Avation is a lessor of 44 aircraft to a diversified airline client base of 19 commercial airlines across 15 countries. This morning, the group has provided a brief update as of 30 June 2021, which points to an impairment review having been completed in line with its standard accounting policies across its turboprop, narrow-body and wide-body fleet. The net impact is to reduce the book value of the fleet by c.$32m, which follows on from the H1 2021A impairment of $46.7m. Management believes that
Companies: Avation PLC
TPFG has delivered an impressive H1/21E trading update, confirming a doubling of interim revenues. The result reflects a buoyant sales market and only a partial contribution from sales-focused Hunters, whose March 2021 purchase looks astute. Given sales pipelines remain robust (set to convert largely over H2/21E); the 73k managed properties continue to provide a high degree of recurring & transactional income; and Ewemove continues to scale quickly, we view the outlook positively. Despite the sh
Companies: Property Franchise Group PLC
Ground Rents Income Fund (GRIO) has today released its Interim Results for the period ending 31 March 2021. The NAV fell by 1.1% to £101.4m (104.5 pps). Dividends of 1.98p have been paid over the six month period, but going forward the Board have announced that they will be reducing the annual dividend target to 3.0pps and expect the dividend to be fully covered by the year ending 30 Sep 2022. At the AGM in March, shareholders approved the authority for the Company to purchase up to 14.99% of it
Companies: Ground Rents Income Fund PLC
Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) - La Mancha launches La Mancha Fund, a Luxembourg based long only fund dedicated primarily to gold mining.
Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Kiziltepe production guidance maintained
Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) – Quarterly report highlights the ‘Big One' prospect
Chaarat Gold (CGH LN) – Robust Kapan production in H1/21 with Tulkubash funding completion pushed to Q3/21
Glencore (GLEN LN) – Glencore to pay $9.85m to settle zinc rigging dispute
Jervois Mining (JRV AU) – Jervoi
Companies: SO4 ALS AAU CGH GLEN POW TYM CCZ JRV LYC
The quarter enjoyed accelerated provision releases. The improved visibility on the group’s mid-term perspectives enabled management to increase its capital distribution plan over the next three years.
Companies: NatWest Group Plc
What a difference a year makes - 12 months ago, the focus, quite understandably, was on the course of the pandemic and the lifting of the Lockdown (1) measures. For investors, it was the sustainability of the rally in markets seen since March 2020. Today, while we are still thinking about the lifting of lockdown measures, we are also concerned about two “old favourites” from previous decades. Inflation and the parlous state of public finances. The BoE has said that although CPI inflation rose to
Companies: AEMC BVC BAG BRSD BWNG CBOX CEG CTG CLG CML CRPR DNK EML ESC FAR FA/ GPH INSE MTW MOTR MMAG NRR NESF NMCN NSF OTMP OBD SAVE SCS STVG SNX SYS TMG TGL VLS VOG WYN
Record’s assets under management equivalent (AUME) has continued to grow in Q122 with net inflows including the launch of the new Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund. This is the first of several new product initiatives to be realised and will contribute to diversification of revenues. The group is also continuing to focus on modernisation and succession to support future growth.
Companies: Record plc
Management has released a trading update for the high-growth Program Management business, covering the half year to 30th June – as well as a quick note on July trading. During this period, Program Management has demonstrated astounding growth.
Companies: Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd.
The quarter enjoyed further net provision releases whereas the pre-provision performance came in line with our expectations. The group is on track to meet its mid-term financial objectives.
Companies: HSBC Holdings Plc
Semper Fortis Esports* recently announced its intention to IPO onto the Access Segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Semper is a multi-operational Esports organisation focusing on gaming technology solutions, brand enhancement and high growth team infrastructures. The company plans to raise £2.5m to develop their three core areas of establishing an esports team, forming partnerships with brands for sponsorship and B2B consultancy services. The Board are highly experienced in spor
Companies: ADME ELIX DEV PPC TXP THR ATM FFWD C4XD IOG
The past year has been highly successful for Deltic. The key highlight was the irrevocable decision by the Shell/Deltic JV at the end of March to drill the Pensacola Zechstein prospect. This decision was an important validation of Deltic’s technical capabilities. We would also identify three other important developments. These are the upgrade to the chance of success on Selene, the de-risking of the Cupertino and potentially the Cortez prospects and the award of six licences under the UK’s 32nd
Companies: Deltic Energy PLC