The Q1 21 revenues were in line with expectations
The customer basis is starting to stabilise with the churn rate decreasing
We expect a resumption of growth in H2 21 and, most of all, FY22
We will not change our estimates after this release
Companies: Solocal Group (LOCAL:EPA)Solocal Group (LOCAL:PAR)
The FY20 results came in line with expectations
The group is still impacted by the pandemic
The churn rate, albeit stabilised, remains too high
Not much to expect for FY21, which will be a transitional year before growth resumes
Companies: Solocal Group
- Q3 revenues showed an (expected) drop yoy
- digital revenues were in line with our expectations
- The group confirmed its FY20 guidance
- No change to our forecasts
The group has been able to save its EBITDA thanks to cost cutting
On top of long-term steps, new short-term cost cutting has taken place due to the pandemic
The group’s target appears within reach
The ongoing financial restructuring will (at last) enable management to focus on the day-to-day business
The financial restructuring, if approved, will end up in a massive dilution of existing shareholders.
We calculate that the value of existing shares could reach as low as €0.072, while the psychological impact of the deal could bring it even lower.
Solocal’s history proves again to be a complex one, with hopefully a sound financial structure at last post restructuring…provided the pandemic comes to an end soon.
Q1 revenues ok, considering the COVID-19 crisis started in March
The outlook looks gloomy, most clients being deeply impacted
Visibility is very low, and will stay so for some time
It remains to be seen if the group can manage without a capital increase
Payment of the Q1 bond coupon cancelled.
The COVID-19 crisis will massively weigh on the group’s businesses.
Cost cutting and capex postponement on the cards.
Visibility is getting close to zero.
We believe the group can’t avoid a capital increase despite the low share price.
FY19 results in line with expectations
More time needed for top-line growth to resume more markedly
FY20 targets look reachable and the financing looks ok
The turn-around seems under way, but the road is still long
We decided to adopt a more cautious view on our valuation given what we see as rising uncertainties
A lot still has to be shown in terms of business turn-around
The 2018-20 is somewhat late in its delivery
Our TP goes down by some 25%, still giving a huge upside
- Increase in the RCF up to €50m
- Equity line of up to €40m, implying a potential €58m increase in the number of shares
- The group secures its 2020 financing, but also scares the market, particularly given its history
- We will adjust our target price
Q3 19 topl-ine and order-intake numbers fully in line.
We welcome the resumption of organic sales growth yoy, despite the low comparison basis.
The group seems on track, but the road is still long.
No significant changes to our numbzrs to be expected after this release.
H1 19 results were good at the operating level, a tick weak on the top-line
Profitability has increased and cash flow was ok, despite the expected outflows in H2
The group maintains its targets for FY19 and bets on a resumption on digital growth in H2
We will not change our estimates much
- Revenues still down, in line with expectations
- Resumption of sequential sales growth in Q1 19
- Surprising (unexplained) departure of the CFO
- The group seems on track with its 2020 plan
- No major change to our numbers/valuation after the release
- Q4 18 was weak, as a result of the reduction in workforce
- management insists no further financing is required (on the condition that the transformation plan actually bears fruit)
- the guidance for FY19 is modest and should be met
- IFRS16 impact: c. +€15m in EBITDA, +€105-115m in debt
- no big changes to expect in our numbers
Q3 18 revenues, sales and order-book are quite significantly down because of the transformation plan (800 redundancies including 400 salesmen). The FY18 EBITDA target is not at risk thanks to cost-cutting. It remains to be seen if the group is able to redeploy its offer and grow again, as this is too early to harvest the first fruit of the new business plan.
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Q1 21 was characterised by opposing trends at ITV Studios and advertising. Revenue recovered at ITV Studios (+9%), while advertising decreased (-6%) due to a high comparative last year and continuing COVID-19 restrictions in the UK. Total advertising revenue turned favourably in March 2021 (+8%) and the positive trend was confirmed in April 2021 and until the end of H1 21 (+26% estimated vs -20% in H1 20).
Companies: ITV PLC
Reach continues to successfully execute on its enhanced Customer Value Strategy, driving strong top-line momentum in Digital. Digital sales (c.20%/revs) rose +25% y/y in Q1 supported by further growth in registered users (6.2m; Dec: 5.0m), whilst high demand for the Group’s ‘plus’ product portfolio is attracting strong advertiser interest, creating an attractive opportunity pipeline via enhanced monetisation of the Group’s growing first-party consumer interest data pool. In Print revenue decline
Companies: Reach plc
Tern plc* (TERN.L, 14.9p/£49m) Portfolio update: Good commercial progress on multiple fronts (04.05.21) | CAP-XX Ltd* (CPX.L, 8.7p/£38.5m) Contract win: Windscreen damage detection application (04.05.21) | Mirada plc* (MIRA.L, 82.5p/£7.3m) FY pre-close: In line and growth in H2 (05.05.21)
Companies: TERN CPX MIRA
The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are fa
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
The Budget offered a clear picture of the state of the economy. Put simply, the economy will be 3% smaller in three years’ time than it would have been without the impact of the pandemic. However, it is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, six months earlier than previously thought. The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 4.1% in 2021, (lower than the 5.5% outlined in November 2020). It has set its GDP forecasts in 2022, 2023 and 2024 at 7.3%, 1.7% and 1.6%. Positive
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In its seasonally weakest quarter, Tremor has announced that it is expecting Q1 21 organic net revenue growth of +71-87% to net revenue of $55-60m ($63-68m as reported), and adjusted EBITDA of $25-28m (Q1 20 $0.5m). The Programmatic division is driving this remarkably strong performance with expected Q1 21 organic net revenue growth of +84-95%, as the strong H2 20 momentum has continued into Q1, and Tremor’s platform is capitalising on the structural growth in digital video and Connected TV adve
Companies: Tremor International Ltd.
MAST Energy Developments (MED) is to IPO on the Standard List on 14th April 2021 under the ticker MAST. The company has raised £5m giving a market capitalisation on listing of c. £23m. MED is currently a 100% subsidiary company of AIM quoted, Kibo Energy*. MED was established to acquire and develop a portfolio of flexible power plants in the UK and become a multi-asset operator in the rapidly growing Reserve Power market. PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Se
Companies: SYM CGNR EKF KBT GGP VLS TMO ECK B90 MDZ
FY2018 results reflect a satisfactory performance, given continued softness in the book trade. Revenues fell by 2% to $149.3m but adjusted operating profit increased 43% to $10.3m. Children’s publishing increased by 2%, representing over one-third of group revenues. The group has extended its banking facilities to August 2020. Net debt fell by 6% to $60.4m. In 2018 the group implemented a cost-out programme to right-size the group. We shall look to reintroduce estimates in due course. We have th
Companies: Quarto Group, Inc.
Q3 21 showed zero surprises. Revenues were in line with expectations with growth reported in Fixed Broadband, and the rest is decreasing yoy. Eutelsat acquired part of the OneWeb project in April.
Companies: Eutelsat Communications (ETL:EPA)Eutelsat Communications SA (ETL:PAR)