The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.
Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB BUR CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR MCL MUR NSF PCA PIN SRE PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE TON SHED VTA W7L
Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to US$191m (H1 2018: US$178m), with Adjusted EBITDA up 15 per cent. year-on-year at US$99m (H1 2018: US$86m) for the six months ended 30 June 2019. Pricing rumoured at 115p to 145p implying valuation of up to $1.8bn. Expected Oct 2019.
Companies: SAR ANIC ORPH CCS SAG NTOG DRV FIPP MUR GAN
Since their privatisation in 1989, the 10 water companies have faced a periodic review every five years; it is undertaken by Ofwat, and prescribes customer prices, along with the investment requirements. As part of the ongoing review, PR19, Ofwat will publish its Final Determination numbers on 11 December 2019; they will apply as from April 2020, although water companies do have the option to seek a reference to the CMA.
Companies: AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR KOOV MCL MUR NSF PCA PIN PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE SIXH TON SHED VTA W7L
Murgitroyd has reported a good start to FY20, building on significant strategic progress in FY19. Chapman IP has been integrated successfully, Brexit is stimulating activity and recent trading has benefited from a large customer win. We leave our forecasts unchanged at this stage but see potential upside as FY20 progresses, notwithstanding macroeconomic uncertainties. Recent S/P weakness looks wholly misplaced and the shares inexpensive (FY20 P/E 12.5x, 4.7% yield).
Companies: Murgitroyd Group
The challenges associated with value creation drive all investors. Any investment professional is eager to make their mark by picking organisations that are able to deliver superior returns. Increasingly investors look into how organisations are governed and how effective the top decision-making bodies of organisations really are. In this white paper, we shed light on research findings and reveal the seven hallmarks of effective boards. The seven hallmarks are proven to create more effective boards and are set to be the next lever in the value creation process. Better Boards has created advanced board evaluation tools designed to motivate and inspire and above all, contribute to superior value creation.
Companies: AVO AJB AGY CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR KOOV MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VTA W7L
The introduction of IFRS 2 in 2004 generated considerable debate about the best approach for handling ‘share-based payments’ (SBP). While it is clearly a cost to shareholders, which should be included in the statutory reporting lines through the P&L account, the question arose as to whetherit should be part of our underlying EBIT calculation.
Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VTA W7L
When advisers first start looking at business relief (BR) products, there is much to take in: the rules governing such products; the investment strategies being used; and what the investment risk is. It is easy to lose sight of the fact that, for non-AIM products, the investment is being made directly into a company or partnership, rather than a fund. It is, therefore, essential that governance is part of the diligence process.
Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY KOOV LWRF MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX RMDL STX SIXH TRX TON SHED VTA W7L
Companies: AZN AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR PCA PHP RE/ REDX STX SIXH TON SHED VTA W7L
How small- and mid-cap quoted companies make a substantial contribution to markets, employment and tax revenues.
Companies: OPM AVO AJB ARBB CMH CLIG DPP FLTA GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV LWRF MCL MUR OXB PCA PHP RE/ STX SIXH TRX TON VTA W7L
Although the focus of Hardman & Co is predominantly on companies in the smallto mid-sized market capitalisation range, when writing research reports, it is important to position them relative to the industry in which they operate. Apart from Japanese companies, all the major global pharmaceutical companies have reported full-year results for 2018 over the past few weeks; therefore, we have taken the opportunity to update our industry database and generate the first cut of global rankings for 2018. For an industry that requires a long investment cycle – it still takes, on average, 10 years from discovery to launch of a new drug – decisions made many years ago have important consequences on current financial results. Therefore, looking back at operational performance over 20 years reveals how different company strategies have panned out.
Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB CMH CLIG CSH DNL GTLY HAYD KOOV LWRF MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TON VTA W7L
Murgitroyd’s interims confirm a period of good underlying progress and two significant corporate developments. Revenue increased by 5%, in line with the long term growth trend, and PBT by 2% to £1.7m. This was the result of further strong growth in support services revenue and, regionally, from US clients. Alongside the results, Murgitroyd has announced the earnings enhancing acquisition of Chapman IP for up to £6.6m and the restructuring of the Board, including the promotion of Edward Murgitroyd to Group CEO after four years as CEO of the operating business.
This Investment Research Paper addresses the issue of renewable power generation in the UK and in mainland Europe, which – after the deep-seated financial crisis of 2008/09 and the ensuing recession – now has better prospects of achieving critical mass. It also considers investment perspectives.
Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB AVCT DISH BUR CLIG CSH DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TRX TON VTA W7L
The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. 2018 was a difficult year; however, the index still outperformed its comparative London indices, falling 10.0% to 393.2, compared with -13.0% and - 18.2% for the Allshare index and the AIM index, respectively. Furthermore, several (17) companies in our index increased their capital base – 15 of our 50 constituents raised new funds, two issued shares as part consideration for acquisitions, and two had share buybacks – all factors that influence the performance of the index. Even allowing for both capital increases and share buybacks, the 12.5% fall in the index still represented a modest outperformance compared with the decline in the Allshare index. With active industry consolidation, shareholder returns remain attractive.
Companies: OPM AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR CLIG DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP REDX SCE SIXH TRX TON VTA
The UK legal service sector looks intrinsically attractive to investors, with its inherent high added-value, resilient growth through all but the very worst of economic times and fragmented nature. Five companies representing about 1% of the huge UK legal sector are all we have seen so far on the UK stock market and this is clearly going to grow, as listed law firms drive home their advantages and expand. Their UK domestic focus has brought share prices under pressure which looks wrong given the outlook, offering a good buying opportunity. We take this opportunity to initiate coverage of Gateley (Corporate) which has achieved great success since IPO but paradoxically trades at an anomalous discount to its peers.
Companies: GTLY BUR DRV MUR INCE KEYS RBGP
Murgitroyd is one of the largest firms of European Patent and Trade Mark Attorneys. It has an excellent track record of revenue growth since IPO and we expect this to continue over the forecast period. Brexit inevitably creates some uncertainty, not least over F/X (50% of sales US$ denominated) but this is a well managed business, which has invested in technology and systems to broaden its offering and global reach. In our view, recent share price weakness is significantly overdone.
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The group has released a positive trading update, signalling a strong H2 and performance ahead of expectations. The new guidance points to a 6.7% upgrade to revenues and a 10.5% upgrade to EBITDA. Cash generation has been notably strong, at about $26m, which will drive an increase in supplemental dividends with a dividend yield of 7.1%. We raise our TP from 255p to 285p, based on a target P/E of 14x, giving decent upside to the current 11.6x.
Companies: Somero Enterprises, Inc.
Less than a fortnight after a major new contract announcement in West Africa, Capital has announced the expansion of its operations at Barrick Gold’s Bulyanhulu Gold Mine in Tanzania. The contracts include a five-year laboratory services contract for MSALABS, together with a two-year underground grade control drilling contract. Capital commenced operations at Bulyanhulu in February 2020, undertaking a deep hole delineation drilling program. The successful execution of this resulted in an expansion of services, with two underground rigs added to operations from May. The new contract will expand the underground fleet to four, utilising two rigs from the existing fleet and including the acquisition of a further two rigs.
Companies: Capital Limited
Management is delivering right on cue to its resumed guidance as per the 1 October trading update. H2 revenue recovery is back close to pre-pandemic levels and operating margins have returned to target 3% in quick time – and are sustainable at that level too. Having upheld dividends through this challenging period and actually extended the order book (up 17% YoY and also c3% higher than last reported), TClarke is firmly re-establishing a growth trend on arguably more solid foundations. The share price is 10% higher since the last trading update but in our view remains significantly undervalued against a prospective FY21E EV/EBITDA ratio of 3x, a PE of c6x, yield 4.6% and double-digit FCF yield.
Companies: TClarke plc
Trading to date in FY 2021 has been positive, with no sign of an adverse impact from the second national UK lockdown. Net new business across both divisions is described by management as encouraging and the new business pipeline remains very healthy. With volumes better than expected and margins improving DX is on track to perform materially better than market expectations and we have, consequently, upgraded FY 2021 EPS by 29% and FY 2022 by 15%, driven by stronger assumptions in DX Freight. We have also raised our FCF-based target price from 29p to 33p and reiterate our view that the group is in a strong position to rebuild profitability by winning new business and improving efficiency, productivity and margins.
Companies: DX (Group) Plc
We release prudent FY20E and FY21E forecasts as Xpediator continues to gain momentum and operations revert to pre-COVID levels. The Group has made strategic progress year to date. It has implemented a strict cost reduction programme which should drive annualised cost saving of over £0.5m, restructured and strengthened its management team and further integrated acquisitions. Additionally, it is in the process of consolidating its site portfolio, driving further costs out of the business. We believe the market continues to undervalue Xpediator's geographically diverse revenue base, flexible low fixed cost operating model and positive financial outlook. Accordingly, we move our recommendation from Under Review to Buy.
Companies: Xpediator Plc
Directa Plus has announced that in the October collaboration agreement with NexTech Batteries, it has achieved above 400 Wh/kg (watt-hours per kilogram, the usual measure of energy density) in a practical system. NexTech produced several full-scale pouch format cell prototypes using its proprietary cathode and electrolyte materials (with Directa plus graphene) producing 410Wh/kg of specific energy at a weight only slightly below 30g. For comparison, standard Lithium-Ion batteries have an energy density of 100-265 Wh/kg.
Companies: Directa Plus Plc
Xpediator has delivered a healthy trading update, breaking several revenue records during H2 2020. Furthermore, the outlook for FY21 remains promising, reflecting recovery to more normal levels in Transport Services, a full-year impact of the Nidd acquisition, the turnaround of underperforming businesses, and new ventures. The £6m PBT forecast for FY20 highlights an improving margin, albeit this represents a shortfall from FY18. In our opinion management actions, plus recovering markets, can take the Group to peak margins over the next 18-24 months: delivering a marked increase in profitability.
Volex has reported interim results that are in-line with expectations following a strong trading update in mid-October. Of far greater significance is today’s announcement of the proposed acquisition of DEKA for a consideration of up to €61.8m on a debt free basis. DEKA is a leading and highly profitable power cord manufacturer, strategically located in Turkey, that serves leading European white goods manufacturers. The acquisition should close in early CY2021, subject to expected Turkish Competition Authority approval. We foresee 15% earnings enhancement in FY2022E with further opportunities for revenue synergies with Volex in the Far East as its operations also vertically integrate, production efficiencies increase and the cost of production falls. The statement highlights that pro forma net debt/EBITDA remains under 0.4x and this provides scope for further bolt-on acquisitions alongside a new $70m RCF and $30m accordion, also announced with the interims.
Companies: Volex plc
Brick and concrete products group Forterra has raised its guidance for FY 2020E to above the current consensus range and reinstated dividends following trading in Autumn which exceeded its previous expectations and which has continued strongly despite the second lockdown. We have increased our FY 2020E revenue, EBITDA and EPS estimates by 3%, 14% and 46% respectively, and cut our net debt projection. We have introduced FY 2021E estimates showing further strong expected growth.
Companies: Forterra Plc
SThree has released a brief update ahead of the scheduled Q4 trading update expected on 12th December. The key headline is that an improving trading backdrop over the last few months has driven a better than expected profit performance. Market consensus was clearly too light with the company now guiding for an FY’20 outcome above the top end of the range of expectations. We have updated our forecasts accordingly and now look for FY’20 PBT and EPS of £28.1m / 13.3p respectively – a PBT upgrade of +53% on our previous estimate. Although the company has not formally reinstated full guidance, we are taking this opportunity to publish our estimates for FY’21. SThree has shown good resilience through this pandemic. The combination of STEM industry specialism and the inherently higher short term visibility of the contract focus has afforded SThree management a greater degree of flexibility when it came to aligning the necessary cost actions with the strategic ambitions of building market share in the key, global STEM markets. Costs and headcount have been cut, but they have been targeted and selective. The net result has been an increasingly positive tone in trading commentary, culminating in yesterday’s explicit upgrade. Has this been fully priced in by the market? To an extent yes, with the shares now standing +57% above the May 2020 lows and outperforming the peer group year to date. However, despite this outperformance (share price and operational) SThree still stands at a material valuation discount to its peers. We continue to find the extent of this valuation gap hard to justify.
Companies: SThree plc
The new ammendments to the UK CfD renewable energy support scheme opens up an opportunity for tidal energy to compete against floating offshore wind. We think the two technologies can deliver similar costs but that tidal, and specifically the already permitted capacity at Atlantis’s MeyGen site, has a marginal advantage in terms of readiness.
Companies: SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd.
President Trump likes to project himself as a highly successful businessman, but surprisingly little is known about his true financial position. Various articles, including a 2016 in-depth analysis by The Wall Street Journal, have speculated about his income and asset base. All sorts of claims and counter-claims have been made about his wealth – by Trump himself, pitching his fortune at some $9bn, and by journalist Timothy O'Brien, suggesting that it is as “low” as $150m-$250m. It is doubtful whether we shall ever know the truth, but we can use Trump’s UK corporate filings to gain an insight into his businesses in Scotland.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
H1F21 revenue was £107m, down 14.8% y/y (H1F20: £125.6m) and down 11.9% sequentially (H2F20: £121.5m). Q2F21 revenue was up 5.3% y/y, indicating a trend to recovery in the post-lockdown period across both, Ireland and the UK. The strength of LTHM's business model is supported by the diversity of its customer base and the expanse of its product offering, allowing it to withstand fluctuations in demand across market sectors. We believe LTHM stock is a relatively low risk investment given the strong cash position (131.6p/share), no debt and a stable yield. The stock trades at 8x EBITDA, compared to its peer average of ~11.1x, on what are more compelling metrics.
Companies: James Latham Plc
Macfarlane has released a strong trading update for the 4 months to October 31 2020 highlighting second half revenue and PBT to date being ahead of 2019 and the expectation that 2020 PBT will be broadly in line with 2019, a strong recovery from the uncertain position at the interim results. Separately, the Group has announced that CFO John Love will be stepping down from his role and the Board to be replaced by Ivor Gray, current Group Financial Controller and Company Secretary. We expect this to be a seamless transition given Ivor's experience in the Group and represents very well managed succession planning by the Board. Reiterate buy rating.
Companies: Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF:LON)Macfarlane Group PLC (5K6:FRA)
We have today released a new note on The Ince Group plc - this is the first of a series of "explainer notes" that take an in-depth look at the various aspects of the Ince investment case our investors have told us require more clarification. This edition examines the partner remuneration model - the headline for which is that this isn't discretionary bonus, it's more of a revenue share that partners are given in lieu of pay. Thus their remuneration is entirely variable, rather than representing a fixed cost.
Companies: Ince Group plc