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  • 15 May 2025

Nutrien1Q25: Robust Potash Volumes with QoQ Price Improvement


Nutrien Ltd. (NTR:TSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Hypothesis Research
    • Marina Alekseenkova

    • 5 pages


 

 Nutrien reported net earnings of $19mn, an 88% YoY decline, and adjusted EBITDA of $852mn, down 19% YoY in 1Q25. Total sales reached $5,100mn, a 5.4% YoY decrease, though slightly up 0.4% QoQ. The company’s retail sales declined 6.6% YoY to $3,090mn, driven by weaker demand for crop protection and crop nutrients. Retail volumes fell 3.9% YoY, while the average selling price in the segment declined 5.1% YoY. Retail adjusted EBITDA dropped to $46 million, impacted by lower volumes. Crop margin decreased across international operations by 38%, compared to a 6.5% decline in North America. In the potash segment, net sales were $744 million, down 8.5% YoY, but up 39% from $536 million in 4Q24. Sales volumes remained steady at 3.4 million tonnes (mt), though the average price fell 8% YoY to $219/tonne. Gross margin dropped 19.5% YoY, but improved 30.5% QoQ. Potash adjusted EBITDA declined 15.8% YoY to $446 million. In the nitrogen segment, net sales rose 4.7% YoY to $954 million, supported by a 3.7% YoY increase in ammonia prices. However, sales volumes fell 1.5% YoY to 2.469 mt, while production increased 6.3% YoY to 1.543 mt. Adjusted EBITDA in the segment decreased 12% YoY to $408 million. For phosphates, net sales fell 17.6% YoY to $360 million, mainly due to a 19.4% YoY drop in volumes. The average price, however, rose 3% YoY to $710/tonne. Phosphates adjusted EBITDA declined 50% YoY to $61mn in 1Q. Nutrien’s net debt rose 5% YoY to $9.7 billion. The company divested its stake in Sinofert Holdings Limited for $223 million and repurchased 3.6 million shares for $188 million as of 6 May 2025.  Nutrien maintained its FY2025 guidance, including Retail Adjusted EBITDA projected in the range of $1.65bn and $1.85bn, compared to $1.696bn in FY24. Potash sales volumes are expected to range between 13.6 and 14.4 million tonnes (mt), versus 13.9 mt in 2024. Nitrogen sales volumes are forecast at 10.7–11.2 mt, up from 10.6 mt last year. Phosphate volumes are projected to fall slightly, ranging between 2.35 and 2.55 mt, down from 2.43 mt in 2024. The guidance assumes higher operating rates for nitrogen and potash, while phosphate production is expected to be lower in 1H25, with improvement anticipated in 2H25. Nutrien also reaffirmed its capex target of $2.0–2.1 billion for 2025. Global potash shipments are projected to be 71–75 mt in 2025, compared to 72.5 mt in 2024. Strong demand in 1Q25 supported both potash pricing and volumes.  We slightly adjusted our forecasts and remain optimistic about nutrient demand in 2025. While global trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions continue to add uncertainty to commodity prices and fertilizer feedstock availability and costs, 1Q25 results from major global fertilizer producers support a positive demand outlook. The seasonally strong North American market in 2Q25 is expected to provide further clarity for full-year expectations. We maintain our DCF-based 12-month price target of US$61.1 and reaffirm our 'Buy' rating on the stock.

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Nutrien1Q25: Robust Potash Volumes with QoQ Price Improvement


Nutrien Ltd. (NTR:TSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 15 May 2025
  • Author: Marina Alekseenkova
  • Pages: 5
  • Hypothesis Research


 Nutrien reported net earnings of $19mn, an 88% YoY decline, and adjusted EBITDA of $852mn, down 19% YoY in 1Q25. Total sales reached $5,100mn, a 5.4% YoY decrease, though slightly up 0.4% QoQ. The company’s retail sales declined 6.6% YoY to $3,090mn, driven by weaker demand for crop protection and crop nutrients. Retail volumes fell 3.9% YoY, while the average selling price in the segment declined 5.1% YoY. Retail adjusted EBITDA dropped to $46 million, impacted by lower volumes. Crop margin decreased across international operations by 38%, compared to a 6.5% decline in North America. In the potash segment, net sales were $744 million, down 8.5% YoY, but up 39% from $536 million in 4Q24. Sales volumes remained steady at 3.4 million tonnes (mt), though the average price fell 8% YoY to $219/tonne. Gross margin dropped 19.5% YoY, but improved 30.5% QoQ. Potash adjusted EBITDA declined 15.8% YoY to $446 million. In the nitrogen segment, net sales rose 4.7% YoY to $954 million, supported by a 3.7% YoY increase in ammonia prices. However, sales volumes fell 1.5% YoY to 2.469 mt, while production increased 6.3% YoY to 1.543 mt. Adjusted EBITDA in the segment decreased 12% YoY to $408 million. For phosphates, net sales fell 17.6% YoY to $360 million, mainly due to a 19.4% YoY drop in volumes. The average price, however, rose 3% YoY to $710/tonne. Phosphates adjusted EBITDA declined 50% YoY to $61mn in 1Q. Nutrien’s net debt rose 5% YoY to $9.7 billion. The company divested its stake in Sinofert Holdings Limited for $223 million and repurchased 3.6 million shares for $188 million as of 6 May 2025.  Nutrien maintained its FY2025 guidance, including Retail Adjusted EBITDA projected in the range of $1.65bn and $1.85bn, compared to $1.696bn in FY24. Potash sales volumes are expected to range between 13.6 and 14.4 million tonnes (mt), versus 13.9 mt in 2024. Nitrogen sales volumes are forecast at 10.7–11.2 mt, up from 10.6 mt last year. Phosphate volumes are projected to fall slightly, ranging between 2.35 and 2.55 mt, down from 2.43 mt in 2024. The guidance assumes higher operating rates for nitrogen and potash, while phosphate production is expected to be lower in 1H25, with improvement anticipated in 2H25. Nutrien also reaffirmed its capex target of $2.0–2.1 billion for 2025. Global potash shipments are projected to be 71–75 mt in 2025, compared to 72.5 mt in 2024. Strong demand in 1Q25 supported both potash pricing and volumes.  We slightly adjusted our forecasts and remain optimistic about nutrient demand in 2025. While global trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions continue to add uncertainty to commodity prices and fertilizer feedstock availability and costs, 1Q25 results from major global fertilizer producers support a positive demand outlook. The seasonally strong North American market in 2Q25 is expected to provide further clarity for full-year expectations. We maintain our DCF-based 12-month price target of US$61.1 and reaffirm our 'Buy' rating on the stock.

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