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  • 15 Aug 2025

The Mosaic Company 2Q25: Notable Items Boosted Earnings; Steady Outlook for 2H25


Mosaic Co (MOS:NYSE), 0 | Mosaic Company (MOS:NYS), 0

  • Hypothesis Research
    • Marina Alekseenkova

    • 5 pages


 

 The Mosaic Company reported net income of $411mn, reflecting a positive $339mn impact from notable items - mostly FX gains in Brazilian real and Canadian dollar - in 2Q25. Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q was $566mn, negatively affected by idle expenses and larger provisions compared to the prior year. Mosaic recorded positive price movements across its product portfolio. In Phosphates, Mosaic produced 1,546kt of finished products, a 9% YoY decline. The average DAP selling price rose 4% YoY to $668/t, while the average selling price for all finished products was $665/t, flat YoY. Feedstock costs increased 5% YoY for ammonia and 51% YoY for sulfur, while blended rock prices fell 14% YoY. Cash conversion costs rose 26% YoY, but gross margin improved 5% YoY to $103mn in 2Q. Phosphate net sales were $1,173mn (down 6% YoY), with Adjusted EBITDA of $217mn, flat YoY. In Potash, finished product volumes were flat YoY at 2,343kt in 2Q25. MOP cash costs rose 17% YoY to $75/t, but declined $3/t QoQ. MOP selling prices increased 17% YoY to $261/t. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $278mn, up 3% YoY. The Brazilian business continued to improve. Mosaic Fertilizantes reported $1,175mn in revenue, up 12% YoY, with gross margin of $162mn, up 59% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA rose 66% YoY to $159mn, driven by a 2% increase in finished product sales (primarily potash), and a 22% YoY increase in Brazilian MAP price. Consolidated results showed net sales of $3,005mn (+7% YoY) and gross margin of $518mn (+31% YoY) in 2Q25. Operating earnings rose 5% YoY to $244mn. Net earnings of $411mn benefited from $339mn in notable items, including $169mn FX gains, $216mn from Ma’aden mark-to-market adjustments, and $51mn in unrealized gains on derivatives. The company recorded a $30mn bad debt expense related to a single client, 90% of which was covered by insurance. Most idle expenses were incurred in the phosphate segment, weighing on its economics.  For FY25, Mosaic reduced its phosphate production guidance to 6.9-7.2mt from 7.2-7.6mt previously and increased its guidance for potash to 9.3-9.5mt from 9.0-9.4mt. Production guidance for Mosaic Fertilizantes remains unchanged at 10.0-10.8mt. Total capex is projected at $1.2-1.3bn, SG&A expenses at $520-500mn, and net interest expense at $180- 200mn. Potash and phosphates markets remain tight. Even with additional supply, global phosphate supply is insufficient to meet demand, and Chinese phosphate exports remain restricted. In potash, the market shifted from balanced to tight in 1H25. Demand remains robust - even elevated - despite rising prices. Mosaic signed contracts with China and India at prices $65/t higher than the prior year. The company has completed most major maintenance projects and expects lower idling costs in 2H25. Notable items remain favorable, supporting strong earnings expectations for 3Q. Mosaic also plans to reduce debt, and margins are expected to improve once major maintenance work is completed. For 3Q25, Mosaic forecasts phosphate sales volumes of 1.8-2.0mt, with DAP prices ranging from $700-720/t. Potash sales volumes are expected at 2.2- 2.4 mt, with MOP FOB mine prices between $270-290/t. We maintain our 12-month target price to $38.2 and a Buy rating.

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The Mosaic Company 2Q25: Notable Items Boosted Earnings; Steady Outlook for 2H25


Mosaic Co (MOS:NYSE), 0 | Mosaic Company (MOS:NYS), 0

  • Published: 15 Aug 2025
  • Author: Marina Alekseenkova
  • Pages: 5
  • Hypothesis Research


 The Mosaic Company reported net income of $411mn, reflecting a positive $339mn impact from notable items - mostly FX gains in Brazilian real and Canadian dollar - in 2Q25. Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q was $566mn, negatively affected by idle expenses and larger provisions compared to the prior year. Mosaic recorded positive price movements across its product portfolio. In Phosphates, Mosaic produced 1,546kt of finished products, a 9% YoY decline. The average DAP selling price rose 4% YoY to $668/t, while the average selling price for all finished products was $665/t, flat YoY. Feedstock costs increased 5% YoY for ammonia and 51% YoY for sulfur, while blended rock prices fell 14% YoY. Cash conversion costs rose 26% YoY, but gross margin improved 5% YoY to $103mn in 2Q. Phosphate net sales were $1,173mn (down 6% YoY), with Adjusted EBITDA of $217mn, flat YoY. In Potash, finished product volumes were flat YoY at 2,343kt in 2Q25. MOP cash costs rose 17% YoY to $75/t, but declined $3/t QoQ. MOP selling prices increased 17% YoY to $261/t. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $278mn, up 3% YoY. The Brazilian business continued to improve. Mosaic Fertilizantes reported $1,175mn in revenue, up 12% YoY, with gross margin of $162mn, up 59% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA rose 66% YoY to $159mn, driven by a 2% increase in finished product sales (primarily potash), and a 22% YoY increase in Brazilian MAP price. Consolidated results showed net sales of $3,005mn (+7% YoY) and gross margin of $518mn (+31% YoY) in 2Q25. Operating earnings rose 5% YoY to $244mn. Net earnings of $411mn benefited from $339mn in notable items, including $169mn FX gains, $216mn from Ma’aden mark-to-market adjustments, and $51mn in unrealized gains on derivatives. The company recorded a $30mn bad debt expense related to a single client, 90% of which was covered by insurance. Most idle expenses were incurred in the phosphate segment, weighing on its economics.  For FY25, Mosaic reduced its phosphate production guidance to 6.9-7.2mt from 7.2-7.6mt previously and increased its guidance for potash to 9.3-9.5mt from 9.0-9.4mt. Production guidance for Mosaic Fertilizantes remains unchanged at 10.0-10.8mt. Total capex is projected at $1.2-1.3bn, SG&A expenses at $520-500mn, and net interest expense at $180- 200mn. Potash and phosphates markets remain tight. Even with additional supply, global phosphate supply is insufficient to meet demand, and Chinese phosphate exports remain restricted. In potash, the market shifted from balanced to tight in 1H25. Demand remains robust - even elevated - despite rising prices. Mosaic signed contracts with China and India at prices $65/t higher than the prior year. The company has completed most major maintenance projects and expects lower idling costs in 2H25. Notable items remain favorable, supporting strong earnings expectations for 3Q. Mosaic also plans to reduce debt, and margins are expected to improve once major maintenance work is completed. For 3Q25, Mosaic forecasts phosphate sales volumes of 1.8-2.0mt, with DAP prices ranging from $700-720/t. Potash sales volumes are expected at 2.2- 2.4 mt, with MOP FOB mine prices between $270-290/t. We maintain our 12-month target price to $38.2 and a Buy rating.

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