 The Mosaic Company reported a net income of $169mn in 4Q24, compared to a net income of $365mn in 4Q23, reflecting a 13% decline in potash sales volumes, lower potash prices, and reduced selling prices in Brazil. Adjusted EBITDA for 4Q was $594mn, down 8% YoY. Despite operational and weather-related challenges, which led to a production cut of 700kt for phosphates and 250kt for potash in 2024, Mosaic anticipates a favorable environment for volume recovery in 2025. Notably, the company’s 4Q24 EBITDA was the highest quarterly result in 2024. In 4Q24, net sales reached $2.8bn, down 11%, while gross margin dropped 46% YoY to $302mn. The potash segment generated $0.6bn in net sales, down 27% YoY, driven by lower volumes (-13% YoY) and lower price (-15% YoY). Segment Adjusted EBITDA fell 34% YoY to $212mn in 4Q. Phosphate net sales rose 9% YoY to $1,165mn, with Adjusted EBITDA increasing 32% YoY to $341mn. Finished product volumes grew 3% YoY, while the average finished product price increased 5% YoY. Mosaic Fertilizantes’ net sales declined 9% YoY to $1,088mn, with Adjusted EBITDA down 26% YoY to $82mn, impacted by lower production volumes in Brazil, higher purchased nutrients volumes, and a 12% YoY decline in finished product selling prices. During the quarter, Mosaic closed a transaction with Ma’aden, receiving $1.5bn in Ma’aden common stock in exchange for its 25% stake in Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company. This transaction resulted in a reported gain of $522mn in Mosaic’s 4Q24 results. However, the FY25 results were negatively impacted by an FX loss of $642mn, which offset the $522mn gain from Ma’aden. Additionally, in January 2025, Mosaic signed an agreement to sell its idled phosphate mine Patos de Minas in Brazil for $125mn. For FY24, Mosaic reported net sales of $11,123mn, down 19% YoY, and an Adjusted EBITDA of $1,679mn, down 39% YoY. Operating earnings totaled $622n, down 54% YoY, while net earnings attributable to Mosaic fell 85% YoY to $175mn. Segment net revenues included $4,519mn from phosphates, $2,389mn from potash, and $4,422mn from Mosaic Fertilizantes. The potash segment was the largest contributor to operating earnings at $604mn. Mosaic’s 2024 capex totaled $1.25bn, down $200mn YoY, aligning with prior guidance. The company completed its Riverview project, adding 800kt of MicroEssentials capacity, which is expected to increase the share of high-margin MicroEssentials to 55% of total phosphate volumes by 2027. The Esterhazy Hydrofloat project is scheduled for completion by mid-2025, with ramp-up expected by year-end, adding 400kt of MOP production. Mosaic also plans to complete the construction of a 1mt blending facility in Brazil in 2025, increasing the sales by 1mt and raising Mosaic Fertilizantes average distribution margin to $30-40/t. In 2025, the company repurchased $235mn in stock, returning $506mn to shareholders through dividends and buyback.  For FY25, Mosaic expects phosphate production of 7.2-7.6mt, and potash production of 8.7-9.1mt. Total capex is projected at $1.2-1.3bn, SG&A expenses at $ 470- 500mn, and net interest expense at $180- 200mn. In 1Q25, Mosaic forecasts phosphate sales volumes of 1.5-1.7mt, with a DAP price of $595-615/t. Potash sales volumes are expected to reach 2.0-2.2mt, with MOP FOB mine prices at $200-220/t. Mosaic remains optimistic about market conditions in 2025, citing low global and U.S. grain stock-to-use ratios, improved farmer earnings, and strong potash demand. The phosphate market continues to be influenced by supply constraints, including Chinese and Russian export restrictions. We have adjusted our revenue and cost forecast, recognizing Mosaic’s strong production growth profile, with planned expansions in potash and phosphate capacities from 2025 to 2027. We have revised our 12-month target price to $34.6 from $33.5 per share, while maintaining our Buy rating.