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  • 08 May 2025

The Mosaic Company 1Q25: Strong Results and Positive Price Momentum


Mosaic Co (MOS:NYSE), 0 | Mosaic Company (MOS:NYS), 0

  • Hypothesis Research
    • Marina Alekseenkova

    • 6 pages


 

 The Mosaic Company reported a net income of $238mn, compared to $169mn in 4Q24 and $45mn in 1Q24. Prices increased across all segments relative to the previous quarter but remained slightly below 1Q24 levels. Adjusted EBITDA for 1Q was $544mn, down 6% YoY. As the first quarter is typically the slowest quarter of the year for Mosaic, the company expects further improvements in volumes and pricing. In Phosphates, Mosaic produced 1,498kt of finished products, a 9% YoY decline. The average DAP selling price increased 4% YoY to $623/t, while the average selling price for finished products was $632/t, a 7% YoY decline. Feedstock prices rose for ammonia by 3% YoY and for sulfur by 11% YoY, while blended rock prices fell 5% YoY. Mosaic reported phosphate net sales of $1,099mn (down 6% YoY) and gross margin of $167mn (up 5% YoY) in 1Q25. Adjusted EBITDA was flat YoY at $276mn. Phosphate conversion costs increased by 22% YoY to $134/t. In the potash segment, finished product volumes fell 2% YoY to 2,113kt in 1Q25. While MOP volumes were higher, volumes for performance products and other products declined YoY. The potash operating rate was 78%, compared to 81% a year ago. MOP cash cost rose 8% YoY to $78/t. MOP selling prices decreased 7% YoY to $223/t but improved from $199/t in 4Q24. Adjusted EBITDA for potash segment was $240mn, down 15% YoY in 1Q25. Mosaic Fertilizantes reported $934mn in revenue, up 5% YoY and gross margin of $127mn, a significant 69% YoY increase in 1Q25. Adjusted EBITDA rose 133% YoY to $98mn. The growth was driven by an 8% YoY increase in volumes and a 17% YoY surge in Brazil MAP prices. Mosaic reported total net sales of $2,621mn, down 2% YoY and gross margin of $488mn, up 22% YoY in 1Q25. Operating earnings rose 95% YoY to $338mn, and net earnings surged 429% YoY to $238mn. Overall, the results reflected stronger margins compared to the previous quarter. Low phosphate volumes in 1Q26 were due to downtime and increased spending on assets, which led to a higher conversion cost. Mosaic targets a phosphate conversion rate of $95-100/t when quarterly production reaches 2mt per quarter, compared to $134/5 at 1.42mt in 1Q25. In the potash segment, cost-cutting initiatives aim to reduce production cash cost to $64-69/t at 2.25-2.35mt production per quarter, compared to $78/t at 2.26mt in 1Q25. Mosaic Fertilizantes delivered its second-best quarter ever. Mosaic is actively engaging with potential investors to explore strategic alternatives for its Carlsbad and Tanuari operations. Mosaic Biosciences achieved more than double revenue growth in high value-added products and remains on track to meet 2025 targets. In late April, the company launched its Neptunion product in China, and is progressing with registrations in Brazil and India. Overall, the positive results reflect strong demand and favorable price momentum, despite ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties.  For FY25, Mosaic maintains its phosphate production guidance of 7.2-7.6mt, and has increased its guidance for potash to 9.0-9.4mt and for Mosaic Fertilizantes to 10.0- 10.8mt, reflecting a 15% YoY increase, driven by improving market conditions. Total capex is projected at $1.2-1.3bn, SG&A expenses at $470- 500mn, and net interest expense at $180- 200mn. For 2Q25, Mosaic forecasts phosphate sales volumes of 1.7-1.9mt, with DAP prices ranging from $635-655/t. Potash sales volumes are expected to reach 2.3- 2.5 mt, with MOP FOB mine prices between $230-250/t. Mosaic remains optimistic about demand trends and anticipates improved margins throughout the year. We have revised our 12-month target price to $38.2 from $34.6 per share, while maintaining our Buy rating.

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The Mosaic Company 1Q25: Strong Results and Positive Price Momentum


Mosaic Co (MOS:NYSE), 0 | Mosaic Company (MOS:NYS), 0

  • Published: 08 May 2025
  • Author: Marina Alekseenkova
  • Pages: 6
  • Hypothesis Research


 The Mosaic Company reported a net income of $238mn, compared to $169mn in 4Q24 and $45mn in 1Q24. Prices increased across all segments relative to the previous quarter but remained slightly below 1Q24 levels. Adjusted EBITDA for 1Q was $544mn, down 6% YoY. As the first quarter is typically the slowest quarter of the year for Mosaic, the company expects further improvements in volumes and pricing. In Phosphates, Mosaic produced 1,498kt of finished products, a 9% YoY decline. The average DAP selling price increased 4% YoY to $623/t, while the average selling price for finished products was $632/t, a 7% YoY decline. Feedstock prices rose for ammonia by 3% YoY and for sulfur by 11% YoY, while blended rock prices fell 5% YoY. Mosaic reported phosphate net sales of $1,099mn (down 6% YoY) and gross margin of $167mn (up 5% YoY) in 1Q25. Adjusted EBITDA was flat YoY at $276mn. Phosphate conversion costs increased by 22% YoY to $134/t. In the potash segment, finished product volumes fell 2% YoY to 2,113kt in 1Q25. While MOP volumes were higher, volumes for performance products and other products declined YoY. The potash operating rate was 78%, compared to 81% a year ago. MOP cash cost rose 8% YoY to $78/t. MOP selling prices decreased 7% YoY to $223/t but improved from $199/t in 4Q24. Adjusted EBITDA for potash segment was $240mn, down 15% YoY in 1Q25. Mosaic Fertilizantes reported $934mn in revenue, up 5% YoY and gross margin of $127mn, a significant 69% YoY increase in 1Q25. Adjusted EBITDA rose 133% YoY to $98mn. The growth was driven by an 8% YoY increase in volumes and a 17% YoY surge in Brazil MAP prices. Mosaic reported total net sales of $2,621mn, down 2% YoY and gross margin of $488mn, up 22% YoY in 1Q25. Operating earnings rose 95% YoY to $338mn, and net earnings surged 429% YoY to $238mn. Overall, the results reflected stronger margins compared to the previous quarter. Low phosphate volumes in 1Q26 were due to downtime and increased spending on assets, which led to a higher conversion cost. Mosaic targets a phosphate conversion rate of $95-100/t when quarterly production reaches 2mt per quarter, compared to $134/5 at 1.42mt in 1Q25. In the potash segment, cost-cutting initiatives aim to reduce production cash cost to $64-69/t at 2.25-2.35mt production per quarter, compared to $78/t at 2.26mt in 1Q25. Mosaic Fertilizantes delivered its second-best quarter ever. Mosaic is actively engaging with potential investors to explore strategic alternatives for its Carlsbad and Tanuari operations. Mosaic Biosciences achieved more than double revenue growth in high value-added products and remains on track to meet 2025 targets. In late April, the company launched its Neptunion product in China, and is progressing with registrations in Brazil and India. Overall, the positive results reflect strong demand and favorable price momentum, despite ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties.  For FY25, Mosaic maintains its phosphate production guidance of 7.2-7.6mt, and has increased its guidance for potash to 9.0-9.4mt and for Mosaic Fertilizantes to 10.0- 10.8mt, reflecting a 15% YoY increase, driven by improving market conditions. Total capex is projected at $1.2-1.3bn, SG&A expenses at $470- 500mn, and net interest expense at $180- 200mn. For 2Q25, Mosaic forecasts phosphate sales volumes of 1.7-1.9mt, with DAP prices ranging from $635-655/t. Potash sales volumes are expected to reach 2.3- 2.5 mt, with MOP FOB mine prices between $230-250/t. Mosaic remains optimistic about demand trends and anticipates improved margins throughout the year. We have revised our 12-month target price to $38.2 from $34.6 per share, while maintaining our Buy rating.

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