Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA. Amaero has provided new revenue guidance for FY26 reflecting timing delays in contract awards and revenue recognition associated with extended US government funding delays and the 43-day US federal government shutdown in the December quarter. As a consequence, Amaero is now guiding that it expects FY26 revenue in the range of $18-$20m including $7.7m in revenue in H1 FY26. Amaero noted that it has secured contracts for $9.7m in revenue in H2 FY26. The previous guidance was for revenue of $30m-35m in FY26. Amaero has also pushed, by six months, its guidance for positive adjusted EBITDA to calendar year 2027 (previously FY27). The company says its powder production business has contracts to atomise six different refractory alloys in H2 FY26 and that it estimates its titanium powder production will increase approximately 30% over H1 FY26. It also highlighted that its powder metallurgy hot isotastic pressing (PM-HIP) manufacturing business has 12 different contracts from defence, aerospace and energy customers. We have adjusted our FY26 forecasts to reflect the new guidance and have also reduced our FY27 forecasts. Our FY26 revenue forecast of $19m is the mid-point of the new guidance range. Our DCF valuation has been trimmed to $0.78/share from $0.82/share, fully diluted. This represents potential capital upside of 179% on the current share price. A -/+15% sensitivity analysis gives us a valuation range of $0.45-$1.00/share.
15 Jan 2026
US government shutdown mutes FY26 guidance
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US government shutdown mutes FY26 guidance
Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA. Amaero has provided new revenue guidance for FY26 reflecting timing delays in contract awards and revenue recognition associated with extended US government funding delays and the 43-day US federal government shutdown in the December quarter. As a consequence, Amaero is now guiding that it expects FY26 revenue in the range of $18-$20m including $7.7m in revenue in H1 FY26. Amaero noted that it has secured contracts for $9.7m in revenue in H2 FY26. The previous guidance was for revenue of $30m-35m in FY26. Amaero has also pushed, by six months, its guidance for positive adjusted EBITDA to calendar year 2027 (previously FY27). The company says its powder production business has contracts to atomise six different refractory alloys in H2 FY26 and that it estimates its titanium powder production will increase approximately 30% over H1 FY26. It also highlighted that its powder metallurgy hot isotastic pressing (PM-HIP) manufacturing business has 12 different contracts from defence, aerospace and energy customers. We have adjusted our FY26 forecasts to reflect the new guidance and have also reduced our FY27 forecasts. Our FY26 revenue forecast of $19m is the mid-point of the new guidance range. Our DCF valuation has been trimmed to $0.78/share from $0.82/share, fully diluted. This represents potential capital upside of 179% on the current share price. A -/+15% sensitivity analysis gives us a valuation range of $0.45-$1.00/share.