Island Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX:ILA) is an antiviral therapeutics company targeting infectious diseases. The company on 17 November 2025 released a presentation in which it detailed the much-anticipated feedback from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its Galidesivir programme for Marburg. The feedback was very positive for ILA in that two outstanding matters were resolved: 1. That the FDA’s Animal Rule pathway could be used for this programme; and 2. That Galidesivir would qualify for a Priority Review Voucher (PRV) on approval by the FDA. Both are significant as the Animal Rule pathway expedites the clinical trial process to a handful of months; the company is now effectively at Phase III stage, where biotech companies can command a market cap of +$300m. Furthermore, a single PRV is worth US$100-160m. The use of the Animal Rule and potential for PRV are key de-risking developments and value drivers for the investment case. Consequently, we have increased our Probability-of-Success (PoS) weighting to 45% from the previous 30%. On our unchanged NPV of $2.52/share, our new probability-weighted NPV (rNPV) moves to $1.14/share from $0.76/share previously.
