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A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Treatt demonstrated its strength and resilience in H120, as so far the COVID-19 pandemic has not had any adverse impact on trading performance. Of course, this is in part due to the categories in which Treatt operates, with some of its products being used in household cleaners, which have witnessed a global spike in demand. Nevertheless, the steady performance is testament to the management and culture of the business, which have been able to withstand the unexpected and exogenous shock. H219 and H120 were affected by a global weakness in citrus raw material prices, which in turn affected revenue growth. Citrus prices have now started to firm and we expect growth in this category to return in H2. We leave our forecasts mostly unchanged but roll forward our DCF and hence our fair value rises to 560p (from 530p previously).
Japanese PMI falls to lowest level since 2009, GE Aviation cuts 10% of workforce, Kone downgrades 2020 outlook
Companies: CGS HAYD HEAD HILS JHD OXIG RSW RNO TWD ZTF SOM GHH
Whether we know it or not, advanced materials are a core component in the everyday life of the everyday person. They are the key material in items we often disregard, such as printer inks and lotions, to objects which defy the laws of gravity like the Airbus A380 and London’s Shard. Furthermore, these materials are not only essential to many objects and structures, but, due to their superior qualities, are the key to the advancement of many industries. One such example is the use of carbon fibre which offers five to ten times more rigidness, stiffness, and strength than its aluminium counterpart. As a result of these impressive qualities, motorsport and athletics have improved ten-fold since their mainstream use and new records are broken every year.
Companies: AGM AUTG BIOM BOY CAR CKT EMH EXO GRPH HAYD IKA ITX CRPR MGAM NANO OXIG SYN SCE SYM VCT ZEN HDD
Airbus secures €15bn credit facility but partially restarts production in France & Spain, Cummins suspends production and FY20 guidance as customers shutdown
Companies: CGS HAYD HEAD HTG OXIG RSW RNO ROR TWD TRI ZTF GHH
US & German manufacturing PMI hits lowest readings since 2009, UK manufacturing PMI heads below 50, BorgWarner expects material financial impact from customer production halts
Companies: AVON CGS HAYD HEAD HILS JHD RNO SCPA TWD TRI ZTF SOM GHH
Treatt has had another successful half year, and the COVID-19 pandemic has, to date, had no adverse effect on the business. As previously stated, the sharp fall in citrus prices during FY19 has continued into H120, hence H1 revenue is down 5.6% at constant currency. There was good growth in the other parts of the business, with tea and health & wellness as the standout performers. Building work on the new UK site has slowed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and at this stage guidance is for relocation to be in 2021, ie a c three- to six-month delay vs previous guidance of Q420. Our forecasts and fair value remain unchanged at 530p.
COVID-19 Trading Update
Companies: Haydale Graphene Industries
There has been much comment on the fact that equity markets in the US and Europe have been shrinking for some years now, certainly in terms of the number of quoted companies, if not in total market capitalisation (MCap). This paper has been written with the assistance of the Quoted Companies Alliance (QCA) and focuses on the evidence for such in the London market and, in particular, that for smaller and midcap companies. It assesses that evidence and considers explanations. Finally, we ask why it matters, and assuming that it does, what practical steps can be taken to reverse the trend. Successful public markets have been a key part of the United Kingdom’s economic success for generations, even centuries, and we should not allow them to wither on the vine.
Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX ASAI DNL GDR HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VTA
Eden Research has reported results for the 12-months to December 2019. As previously announced, revenues for the year were £2.0m within which product revenues grew to £1.7m (2018A £1.6m); the operating loss was £1.4m. During 2019 the company received its first approvals for its second product, Cedroz and signed a number of distribution agreements. Post-period end, Eden signed an exclusive evaluation agreement with Corteva Agriscience, a leading agricultural inputs company. We believe the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to impact the ability to actively market Eden's products and could delay additional product authorisations in key regions. Given these uncertainties, we are withdrawing our forecasts and move our recommendation to Under Review.
Companies: Eden Research
Against a backdrop of generally negative company announcements, Hardide bucked the trend by releasing solid interim results for the 6 months ended March 2020, noting limited impact to date from COVID-19 and a positive trading outlook. Furthermore, the allimportant move to new facilities and corresponding capacity expansion is both on track and on budget. Several of Hardide’s end markets will clearly be feeling the impact of COVID-19. However, we feel the importance of Hardide’s technology to its customers by extending the useful life of components and its diversity of end markets across multiple sectors including oil & gas, aerospace, flow control, power generation and precision engineering is enabling it to weather the storm. We leave our forecasts unchanged and see potential for an upgrade should end markets maintain strength and H2 margins match those of H1.
Following trading updates on 27 April and 14 May, we are introducing forecasts for FY 2021, confident that the demand for disinfection products is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. Byotrol’s strong order book (>£2m) at the end of April and improving supply chain management for biocidal ingredients, as countries exit lockdown measures, also underpin our confidence. We forecast a 67% increase in revenues to £10m with adjusted EBITDA and pre-tax profit of £1.1m (£0.25m) and £0.7m, respectively. With the pandemic likely to have resulted in a secular shift towards improved disinfection prevention and the prospect for upgrades on further IP licence agreements, we reiterate our target price of 9p, at which level the stock would trade on 3.8x sales