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  • 07 Aug 2025

The story is coming together


Fluence Corporation Limited (FLC:ASX) | 0 0 0.0%


  • RaaS - Research as a Service
    • Graeme Carson

    • 10 pages


 

Fluence Corporation (ASX:FLC) specialises in the delivery of water and wastewater solutions in industrial, municipal and commercial industries across the globe. The company has released its quarterly 4C cashflow statement and a Q2FY25 financial and operating update (December year-end) containing some key H125 data points. The H125 result was a significantly positive turnaround with growth driven by the Ivory Coast Addendum project and improved performance across most business units. Revenue reached US$33.1m, up 64.7% YoY, with gross margins at 26.5% (down 4.1% due to increased contribution from the lower-margin Ivory Coast project as expected). SPS margins expanded YoY with MWW the standout performer with a GP margin of ~36%). EBITDA turned slightly positive at US$0.1m, a US$3.6m improvement over the pcp. The company’s backlog stood at US$79.5m, and cash at US$12.7m, supplemented by US$4.1m in security deposits. Fluence reaffirmed FY2025 revenue guidance of US$80-95m and EBITDA of US$3-5m, while highlighting some risk from US trade tariffs and weak Chinese demand. The H125 revenue and EBITDA numbers are marginally below RaaS forecasts, but management commentary included “H2 2025 is expected to show significant revenue growth as compared to H1 2025 and H2 2024 as a number of backlog projects have begun to accelerate combined with continued progress on the Ivory Coast Addendum”. Our FY25 forecasts remain in line with the mid-point of the guidance range with revenue at US$87.4m and EBITDA at US$4.1m. We believe this is supported by the order backlog of US$79.5m, particularly given the proportion forecast to be recognised in FY25 combined with revenue YTD equates to FY25 revenue of $74.6m (representing 79-93% of full year guidance). This has been further improved by more than US$8m of orders secured in July. As such, and considering expected seasonality skewed to H2, our FY25 revenue forecast of US$87.4m looks achievable. We retain our DCF valuation of A$0.18 per share, representing potential upside of 240% from the current share price.

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The story is coming together


Fluence Corporation Limited (FLC:ASX) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 07 Aug 2025
  • Author: Graeme Carson
  • Pages: 10
  • RaaS - Research as a Service


Fluence Corporation (ASX:FLC) specialises in the delivery of water and wastewater solutions in industrial, municipal and commercial industries across the globe. The company has released its quarterly 4C cashflow statement and a Q2FY25 financial and operating update (December year-end) containing some key H125 data points. The H125 result was a significantly positive turnaround with growth driven by the Ivory Coast Addendum project and improved performance across most business units. Revenue reached US$33.1m, up 64.7% YoY, with gross margins at 26.5% (down 4.1% due to increased contribution from the lower-margin Ivory Coast project as expected). SPS margins expanded YoY with MWW the standout performer with a GP margin of ~36%). EBITDA turned slightly positive at US$0.1m, a US$3.6m improvement over the pcp. The company’s backlog stood at US$79.5m, and cash at US$12.7m, supplemented by US$4.1m in security deposits. Fluence reaffirmed FY2025 revenue guidance of US$80-95m and EBITDA of US$3-5m, while highlighting some risk from US trade tariffs and weak Chinese demand. The H125 revenue and EBITDA numbers are marginally below RaaS forecasts, but management commentary included “H2 2025 is expected to show significant revenue growth as compared to H1 2025 and H2 2024 as a number of backlog projects have begun to accelerate combined with continued progress on the Ivory Coast Addendum”. Our FY25 forecasts remain in line with the mid-point of the guidance range with revenue at US$87.4m and EBITDA at US$4.1m. We believe this is supported by the order backlog of US$79.5m, particularly given the proportion forecast to be recognised in FY25 combined with revenue YTD equates to FY25 revenue of $74.6m (representing 79-93% of full year guidance). This has been further improved by more than US$8m of orders secured in July. As such, and considering expected seasonality skewed to H2, our FY25 revenue forecast of US$87.4m looks achievable. We retain our DCF valuation of A$0.18 per share, representing potential upside of 240% from the current share price.

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