• Net result after minorities was a loss of €69m for Q3 20 compared to a net profit of €297m for Q3 19
• Commerzbank booked restructuring charges of €201m in Q3 20
• Risk result (loan losses) was €272m for Q3 20 including €181m due to the COVID-19 impact
• The bank expects a negative net result for FY2020
Companies: 0RLW CBK CBK CBKN CBK CBK CRZBF COMMERZB CBKN
• Net profit after minorities was €220m for Q2 20 compared to a net loss of €295m for Q1 20
• Profit of €163m for the fair value result (trading result) in Q2 20 compared to a loss of €304m for Q1 20
• The tax result was a credit of €22m for Q2 20 compared to expenses of €20m for Q2 19
• Risk result (loan losses) rose from €178m for Q2 19 to €469m for Q2 20
Companies: Commerzbank AG
• The net loss of €295m for Q1 20 compared to a profit of €122m for Q1 19
• Loss of €304m for the fair value result (trading result) in Q1 20 compared to a profit of €85m in Q1 19
• Risk result (loan losses) rose from €78m for Q1 19 to €326m for Q1 20
• Negative COVID-19 impact of overall €479m on operating profit in Q1 20
• Polish mBank will remain part of the Commerzbank Group
• A transaction doesn’t seem feasible at reasonable terms under the current market conditions which are dominated by the Coronavirus crisis
• We have to adjust our forecasts from 2020 onwards with a higher loss as the costs for the restructuring programme Commerzbank 5.0 are no longer partly offset by the disposal gain
• Pre-tax declined by 9% to €1.1bn for 2019
• Dividend per share proposal is €0.15 for 2019 compared to €0.20 for 2018.
• Restructuring charges of €101m from the new 5.0 programme in Q4 19
• The sale process of mBank in Poland has started but no big demand regarding media
• Pre-tax profit increased by 29% to €448m for Q3 19
• Other income benefited in Q3 19 from a disposal gain of €106m for ebase
• Administrative expenses including compulsory contributions were down by 2%
• No restructuring charges from new 5.0 programme in Q3 19
• Commerzbank confirmed its new strategic programme 5.0
• Total investments of around €1.6bn, €850m of which are restructuring costs
• Merger of Comdirect with Commerzbank and the sale of its mBank stake
• Ridiculous new RoTE target of above 4% for 2023
• Pre-tax profit declined by 18% to €318m for Q2 19
• The tax rate was only 6% for Q2 19 compared to 24% for Q2 18
• Commerzbank’s profitability was still much too low in H1 19 at 3.1%
• The trends in the two operating segments were quite different in Q2 19
• Net profit after minorities decreased by 54% to €120m for Q1 19
• The tax ratio was 40% for Q1 19 compared to 2% for Q1 18
• Profitability of Commerzbank was still much too low in Q1 19 at 1.7%
• Take-over speculations should develop further as has happened for the last 20 years
Pre-tax profit decreased by 47% to €331m for Q3 18 compared to Q3 17 and was down by 15% compared to Q2 18. Net interest income rose by 26% to €1.2bn for Q3 18 compared to Q3 17 and was up by 3% compared to Q2 18. Loan loss provisions decreased by 20% to €134m in Q3 18 compared to Q3 17. Commission income increased by 4% to €767m in Q3 18. Trading income decreased by 25% to €166m for Q3 18 compared to Q3 17. Other income declined from an income of €417m for Q3 17 to €39m for Q3 18. Total revenues were down by 12% to €2.06bn in Q3 18 compared to Q3 17 and declined by 4% compared to Q2 18. Administrative expenses were up by 1% to €1.73bn for Q3 18 compared to Q3 17 and declined by 1% compared to Q2 18. The tax ratio was 26.9% for Q3 18 compared to 21.5% for Q3 17. The net result after minorities decreased by 54% to €218m for Q3 18 compared to Q3 17 and declined by 20% compared to Q2 18. The RoE was 3.1% for Q3 18, 6.6% for Q3 17 and 3.9% for Q2 18. The Basel 3 fully phased-in core Tier 1 ratio was 13.2% at the end of September 2018 versus 14.1% at year-end 2017.
The pre-tax result was a profit of €389m compared to a loss of €624m for Q2 17 due to high restructuring charges. Net interest income was up by 12% to €1.16bn for Q2 18 compared to Q2 17. Risk costs (old loan loss provisions) decreased by 50% to €84m in Q2 18 versus Q2 17. Commission income was slightly down by 2% to €765m in Q2 18 compared to Q2 17. Fair value result (old trading income) increased by 31% to €268m for Q2 18. Total revenues rose by 8% to €2.2bn in Q2 18 compared to Q2 17. Administrative expenses were up by 2% to €1.75bn in the same period. Commerzbank booked restructuring charges of €807m for FY2017/18 in Q2 17. The net result after minorities was a profit of €272m for Q2 18 compared to a loss of €640m for Q2 17. RoE was 3.9% for Q2 18 compared to -8.9% for Q2 17. The Basel 3 fully phased-in core Tier 1 ratio was 13.0% at the end of June 2018 versus 14.1% at year-end 2017.
The pre-tax result declined by 12% to €289m for Q1 18 versus Q1 17. Net interest income was down by 0.4% to €1.05bn for Q1 17 compared to Q1 16. Loan loss provisions decreased by 61% to €77m in Q1 18. Commission income was down by 10% to €797m in Q1 18 compared to Q1 17. Trading income declined by 14% to €345m for Q1 18 versus Q1 17. Total revenues decreased by 4% to €2.3bn in Q1 18 compared to Q1 17. Administrative expenses were up by 4% to €1.9bn in the same period. The tax ratio was 2% for Q1 18 compared to 24.5% for Q1 17. The net profit after minorities increased therefore by 9% to €250m for Q1 18 versus Q1 17. RoE was 3.6% in Q1 18 compared to 3.0% in Q1 17 and 0.5% for FY2017. The Basel 3 fully phased-in core Tier 1 ratio was 13.3% at the end of March 2018 versus 14.1% at year-end 2017.
Preliminary pre-tax profit decreased by 23% to €495m for FY2017 compared to FY2016. Net interest income was slightly up by 1% to €4.2bn for FY2017 compared to FY2016. Trading income rose by 7% to €1.1bn in 2017. Loan loss provisions declined by 13% to €781m for 2017. Revenues before loan loss provisions decreased by 2.5% to €9.2bn for 2017 compared to 2016. Operating expenses were slightly down by 0.3% to €7.1bn in the same period. Restructuring expenses were €808m and exceptional positive revenues were €556m in FY2017. The tax ratio was 49% for 2017 and 41% for 2016. Net profit after minorities attributable to common shares declined by 44% to €156m for 2017 compared to 2016. The Basel III fully-applied Core Tier 1 ratio was 14.1% at the end of December 2017 compared to 12.3% at year-end 2016 regarding Commerzbank. IFRS 9 impact should burden the CET1 ratio by 75bp from 2018 onwards. The RoE was 0.5% for FY2017 compared to 1.0% for FY2016. Commerzbank is paying no dividend for FY2017.
The pre-tax result was a profit of €629m for Q3 17 versus a loss of €255m for Q3 16 and a loss of €624m for Q2 17. Net interest income was down by 16% to €954m for Q3 17 compared to Q3 16. Loan loss provisions decreased by 39% to €168m in Q3 17. Commission income declined by 5% to €738m in Q3 17. Trading income decreased by 12% to €300m for Q3 17 compared to Q3 16. Net income from investments more than tripled from €94m in Q3 16 to €300m (Concardis sale) for Q3 17. Other income switched from a loss of €22m for Q3 16 to a profit of €221m, mainly by property sales gains in Q3 17. Total revenues rose by 3% to €2.5bn in Q3 17 compared to Q3 16. Administrative expenses were down by 1% to €1.71bn in the same period. The tax ratio was 21.5% for Q3 17. The net result after minorities was therefore a profit of €472m for Q3 17 versus a loss of €288m for Q3 16. The RoE was 6.6% for Q3 17. The Basel 3 fully phased-in core Tier 1 ratio was 13.5% at end September 2017 versus 12.3% at year-end 2016. Commerzbank is targeting a slightly positive net result for FY2017.
The pre-tax result was a loss of €624m for Q2 17 versus a profit of €302m for Q2 16. Net interest income was down by 23% to €1.04bn for Q2 17 compared to Q2 16. Loan loss provisions decreased by 11% to €167m in Q2 17. Commission income was unchanged at €779m in Q2 17. Trading income was €204m for Q2 17 compared to a loss of €73m for Q2 17. Total revenues declined by 7% to €1.9bn in Q2 17 compared to Q2 16. Administrative expenses were down by 1.4% to €1.7bn in the same period. Commerzbank booked restructuring charges of €807m for FY2017/18 in Q2 17 as announced in June instead of the originally planned €550m for 2017 and 2018 respectively. The net result after minorities was therefore a loss of €637m for Q2 17. RoE was -8.9% for Q2 17 compared to 3.0% for Q2 16. The Basel 3 fully phased-in core Tier 1 ratio was 13.0% at the end of June 2017 versus 12.3% at year-end 2016. Commerzbank confirmed that it is expecting a slightly positive net result for FY2017.
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In a positive 10-month update Belvoir has detailed trading is ahead of its pre-COVID expectations. Gross profit is up +10% in the Property division and +11% in Financial Services. Overheads are now significantly below the original budget and management has decided to reimburse staff for salary sacrifices earlier in the year and repay the Government in full for COVID furlough monies and grants. Taking all this into account, we have upgraded our FY 2020E EPS by +4%. A further catch-up dividend of 1.3p will be paid alongside the final 2020 dividend and we forecast net debt of £4.5m at December 2020. The resilience of Belvoir’s franchise model has been proved and, in our view, highlights the long-term growth potential when markets return to more normal conditions.
Companies: Belvoir Group PLC
Litigation Capital Management (LCM) is an alternative asset manager specialising in disputes financing, with its main operations in Australia and the UK. The company provides funding for litigation in exchange for a share of any settlement and has built a strong track record of supporting winning c
Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd
H1 has seen a clearer outlook for portfolio valuations which has allowed Mercia to recoup some of the reduction at the Finals. Cash earnings are better than expected as costs have remained lower for longer. A well-funded portfolio and £25m cash has prompted declaration of a maiden 0.1p interim dividend – a strong signal of confidence. Lower costs and increased asset values have prompted 30-45% upgrades to adj. EBITDA across the horizon. The shares are trading at a 32% discount to NAV, of which 17% is cash. This disregards all value for the asset management platform. A 10x EBITDA multiple ascribed to 3rd party asset management earnings plus NAV points to a c.40p/share intrinsic value, before further value creation.
Companies: Mercia Asset Management PLC
Today's trading update demonstrates Equals producing robust FY20E revenues, as it rebounds steadily from a COVID-19 affected Q2/20. Material progress has been made on rightsizing costs, the benefits of which should be felt in FY21E. While our newly reissued forecasts expect a weaker profit delivery in H2/20E, we expect strong YoY EBITDA growth thereafter, as the group returns to double-digit revenue growth with a rationalised cost base and geared profit growth. Should these forecasts be met, we expect the current c2x EV/Sales multiple to move back towards Jan 20's pre-covid 4x multiple, hence we move back to “Buy”.
Companies: Equals Group Plc
Today's news & views, plus announcements from AZN, LLOY, WEIR, TATE, GFTU, INCE, DELT, SOLG, HYVE
Companies: LLOY SOLG INCE
Liontrust has delivered in line interims, however AuM growth since the HY point drives higher earnings estimates. In H1, net inflows remained strong despite the backdrop and, alongside performance, contributed to 28% AuM growth. Post-period, performance momentum has boosted AuM by a further 5% to £28.1bn, plus the completion of Architas. Together, this results in a step up in the run rate. We update our forecasts for higher than expected AuM driving a +5% upgrade to FY21e EPS and +10-13% in outer years. We do not forecast scaling in Architas or Global which could prompt further upgrades, reducing the 15x FY22e PER.
Companies: Liontrust Asset Management PLC
Today's news & views, plus announcements from LLOY, POG, FRAS, PETS, SPR, WHI, FKE, RLE
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group plc (LLOY:LON)Real Estate Investors plc (RLE:LON)
Record has set itself the goal of generating greater growth and H121 showed some encouraging steps in this direction. The substantial new dynamic hedging mandate in the period was traditional business for the group, but there was also news of a new currency impact fund, which provides diversification, higher fee margins and the potential for significant development. The implementation of new IT systems is underway, and measures to develop and retain staff have been taken.
Companies: Record plc
Today's news & views, plus announcements from Capita, JD Wetherspoon, HarbourVest Global Private Equity, Walker Crips Group, Randall & Quilter*, Michelmersh Brick, LoopUp, Schroders British Opportunities Trust and Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust.
Companies: Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd.
An in-line trading update for the year to 31 December 2020 states EBITDA will be at least £3.6m and £2.0 at the PBT level. However, conservative budgeting affects 2021E and 2022E with the company rebasing expectations following year-end re-forecasting exercise, taking into account the prolonged challenging macroeconomic environment. The acquisitive opportunity remains in place.
Companies: STM Group PLC
Resilience throughout the COVID pandemic has driven positive portfolio gains and further capital investment. The 119p/share NAV does not come as a surprise given the £27.5m equity raise at 120p was only completed a month ago, and will be deployed to target a deep £120m pipeline – now underway. Trading momentum has been sustained in Augmentum's (“AUGM”) portfolio companies which are high growth, disruptive and innovative. There is (much) more value to play for as this continues. For public markets investors, this is a diversified and professionally managed route to access attractive VC assets with structural growth. Should this value be forthcoming, the current premium is only the tip of the iceberg.
Companies: Augmentum Fintech
President Trump likes to project himself as a highly successful businessman, but surprisingly little is known about his true financial position. Various articles, including a 2016 in-depth analysis by The Wall Street Journal, have speculated about his income and asset base. All sorts of claims and counter-claims have been made about his wealth – by Trump himself, pitching his fortune at some $9bn, and by journalist Timothy O'Brien, suggesting that it is as “low” as $150m-$250m. It is doubtful whether we shall ever know the truth, but we can use Trump’s UK corporate filings to gain an insight into his businesses in Scotland.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
Palace Capital’s (PCA) H121 performance was robust and ahead of our central expectations. We have slightly increased FY21 earnings forecasts and introduced FY22–23 estimates, with growth driven by Hudson Quarter completion, on track for March 2021. Significant additional reversionary potential and development/refurbishment represent significant value creation potential.
Companies: Palace Capital plc
To achieve YoY revenue growth over H1/20A despite the challenges of Covid-19 and its impact on the travel sector is testament to Equals' resilience and increasing focus on B2B and International payments services. While weaker gross profit and EBITDA margins have impacted profitability in H1/20, we see potential for an earnings recovery in H2/20 given cost reduction measures currently being undertaken. This should lead Equals to cash breakeven in Q4/20 and FCF positive by early FY21.
Gore Street has been reassuring investors that its Northern Irish projects will complete in time to maximise the benefits of contracts under the DS3 scheme. Today’s news of the energisation of the first project suggests that the company will meet the deadline with a good margin.
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC