Danone finally bows to investor pressure to split the Chairman and CEO roles. This is a good start, but we hope that the group will accompany this decision with strategic choices to relaunch growth.
Companies: Danone (BN:EPA)Danone SA (BN:PAR)
The FY20 figures were roughly in line with the expectations. The FY21 outlook seems quite conservative, but positive comments about the potential split of Faber’s roles, divestments or buy-backs were welcomed. More information to come at the next CME on 25 March.
Companies: Danone SA
Sequential recovery from the Q2 lows. The group has restored FY20 guidance, with expectations of a 14% operating margin. A reshaping of the organisation and portfolio review are also supposed to drive mid-term 3-5% profitable growth. Wait and see.
Danone did less well than its peers (especially Nestle), and a little less well than consensus expected, but not so badly either. However, the lack of improvement in the expected margin remains the main issue for the rest of the year. Overall, sentiment is mixed.
Strong Q1 results boosted by pantry loading and the shift to at-home consumption, but the 2020 guidance is withdrawn due to the lack of visibility related to COVID-19. The group did not seem confident that the performance would continue in the coming quarters and warned that the group’s margins would be impacted.
Danone’s FY19 results were roughly in line with the consensus and our estimations on both the top and bottom line. It was no surprise that the group downgraded its guidance last October given the clear indications. The main news is, however, the FY20 guidance cut on the back of the Coronavirus and the €2bn investment plan (2020-22). While we were already cautious about its ability to deliver on its previous 2020 targets, we now see this new guidance as more realistic.
Danone reported Q3 sales figures below consensus expectations and now targets lower full-year sales growth from 3% to between 2.5% and 3%. The operating margin target is unchanged at above 15%. However, we note some positive points anyway, especially in Early Life Nutrition in China.
Quite a good set of H1 results, driven by baby foods in China and the Moroccan recovery. However, our enthusiasm is slightly negatively impacted by volumes declining in Q2 and raw material cost inflation.
Slow start to the year, mainly due to China’s slowdown and the Moroccan boycott. However, we expect a recovery in both. Coupled with the brighter perspectives, especially for H2, the group should reach its FY19 guidance.
Satisfying FY18 results, with reassuring top line and growing operating margin.
We remain cautious regarding further operating profitability improvement despite cost savings, as the company will see higher input/logistics costs in the year to come.
Although the company showed further improvements in both EDP divisions and good momentum in Waters, the contraction in ELN in China was more severe than expected.
We expect changing dynamics in Chinese ELN to result in more conservative estimates in the coming quarters for this segment.
Reassuring numbers despite boycott in Morocco, driven by Specialised Nutrition and the pick up in EDP North America. Our Add recommendation is maintained.
Strong start to the year with sales growing 4.9% lfl on the back of China which continues to drive Specialised Nutrition and Waters solidly.
As positives, we note EDP’s improvement vs. Q4 with EDP International flipping into positive territory despite being negative in Brazil.
The company sets the bar high for other Packaged Food players with its Q1 numbers. Investors should feel reassured.
Solid year-ending, driven by Waters & Specialised Nutrition. Essential Dairy & Plant Based is still in negative territory but improved well in Q4 vs. Q3.
We maintain our opinion that EDP tipping over into positive territory would be a clear trigger for the stock.
Sales grew organically +4.7% (cons. +3%) with volumes up +0.4% (in line with consensus) and pricing +4.3%.
Lfl performance by division: Essential Dairy & Plant Based International -2.3% (cons. -1.6%, volumes down -7.4%), Essential Dairy & Plant Based North America -2.2% (cons. -1.3%, volumes down -2.7%), Specialised Nutrition +17.8% (cons. +9%, with volumes +9% and +8.8% in value), and Waters +7.6% (cons. +6.4%, volume up +6.2%).
The FY is confirmed and clarified at +12% recurring EPS growth at constant FX.
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The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are familiar. The belief that the roll-out of the vaccine and some relaxation of lockdown limitations will lead to a significant economic recovery, compared to the collapse seen in the first half of 2020, due to lockdowns. Indeed, the recent economic picture is becoming more optimistic than previous expectations. According to the ONS, the economy grew a little more than initially estimated in Q4 last year. This means GDP for 2020 as a whole contracted by 9.8%, revised up marginally but still the worst contraction on record. Markets, in general, have focused upon the potential scope and extent of the recovery. The sectors and stocks that have outperformed have been seen as ‘recovery’ plays with a rotation from stocks seen as ‘lockdown’ winners into those set to benefit from the ‘unlocking of society’ and/or exposed to the consumer. We expect 2021 will continue to be a “stock-picker’s” market. The sharp increase in the household savings ratio in Q4 highlights the scope for a recovery driven by expenditure. As further lockdown limitations are lifted, evidence of this growth will help to underpin the more optimistic outlook for Q2 and beyond.
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
Virgin Wines has a compelling investment case offering high growth yet predictable earnings. A unique sourcing model that drives high gross margins coupled with a tightly managed range turns stock rapidly. A low operating cost model and a disciplined approach to customer acquisition drive high EBITDA margins. A management team with an enviable record offers stability and experience through a disciplined growth strategy and a relatively capital light asset base. We see multiple years of high growth ahead.
Companies: Naked Wines plc
Dekel Agri-Vision has announced record CPO Production volumes, standing at 6895 tonnes for the month of March within their impressive March 2021 / Q1 2021 production update. We retain our strong buy rating with a 92% upside to our target price.
Companies: Dekel Agri-Vision Plc
In what the company describe as an “unprecedented year”, Cake Box’s trading update for the year ended 31st March has once again confirmed the potency of the Group’s format and franchise model to us. Total revenues are reported ahead by c16%, supported by an attractive combination of strong organic franchisee growth (24 new sites) and very positive LFL growth (when trading was permitted). Balance sheet strength is also a major virtue, with period end net cash at £3.6m, which is expected to build further given Cake Box’s capital light, cash generative model – optionality around the use of cash is building in our view. The franchisee pipeline is strong, the kiosk opportunity is in very early days and the Group is very well set as UK retail and entertainment reopens.
Companies: Cake Box Holdings Plc
The Budget offered a clear picture of the state of the economy. Put simply, the economy will be 3% smaller in three years’ time than it would have been without the impact of the pandemic. However, it is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, six months earlier than previously thought. The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 4.1% in 2021, (lower than the 5.5% outlined in November 2020). It has set its GDP forecasts in 2022, 2023 and 2024 at 7.3%, 1.7% and 1.6%. Positively, we have a continuation of substantial support for various parts of the economy – totalling £350bn. The market may focus on two elements. Under the so-called “super-deduction scheme, businesses which invest in the next two years will be able to claim 130% of the cost against their tax bill. This is significant but also significant is the proposed increase in corporation tax on profits from 19% to 25% in 2023. This has material consequences. Looking that far ahead is not straightforward. The increased tax charge will inevitably impact ratings. This may not be a consideration currently but may become one as more FY2023 estimates are introduced. Closer to home, we have continued to see most results/updates in line with expectations. An increasing number of companies have restored dividends. M&A across a broad range of sectors also looks set to continue.
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BVC BEG BRSD BWNG CBOX CTG CLG CML CWK EYE ECHO EML ESC FBD FA/ GSF HTWS INSE JDG MACF MTW NESF NAVF NSF NBI OTMP PCF PPC QFI SAVE SEN SNX TGL UTL VLS WYN
tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard). Has raised £13M in an oversubscribed placing. £25m mkt cap. Due 26 Feb. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc has out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Anticipated mkt cap £110m. Raising £13m in new money and vendor sale of £34.9m . Due 2nd March. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.
Companies: YEW IKA UPR WYN ENW BWNG TRAK DBOX HZM G4M
Cranswick’s Q3 2021 trading update for the 13 weeks to 26th December makes for very pleasant reading, with ‘strong’ sales momentum leading to a 6% CPTP upgrade to £123m, EPS of 188.3p, so yoy growth >20%. Cranswick is in rude health. Total sales growth is not disclosed, though we estimate in the mid-high single digit range, in part capturing the benefit of the strong trading already disclosed by the UK grocers and broader supply chain. As was observed through H1 2021, we are encouraged that growth appears broad based, with we believe all categories in positive volume territory. Cranswick is a highquality operator, which alongside the transfer of calories to in-home consumption is also capturing the benefit of sustained growth investment through new business wins (poultry and pork), and bolt-on corporate activity. Trading on a FY2021 PER of 18.3x, falling to 17.6x in FY2022 (5-year avg. 20.3x), and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.7x, falling to 10.3x (5-year avg. 12.3x), we see an attractive opportunity to access a high quality, cash generative, high returning growth stock. HOUSE STOCK.
Companies: Cranswick plc
Sky News reports that a surge in pandemic-fuelled activity by homebound traders is propelling AvaTrade towards a London stock market listing that could value it at up to £700m. Established in 2006, AvaTrade is one of a number of platforms - including CMC Markets, Plus500 and IG Group - which enable their customers to trade contracts for difference.
PensionBee, the online pensions provider, with a mission to make pensions simple, so that everyone can look forward to a happy retirement, considering an IPO on the High Growth Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. PensionBee is a leading online pensions provider in the UK, with approximately 130,000 Active Customers and £1.5 billion of assets under administration , in each case as at 28 February 2020.
Cornerstone FS to join AIM, an SME focused, cloud-based provider of international payment, currency risk management and electronic account services focused on removing the complexity of international payments for customers. Raising £2.2m. Mkt Cap £12.3m. Due 6 April.
Imperial X (AQSE:IMPP) to join the Main Market (standard). It is also proposed that on Admission to the Official List, the Company will change its name to Cloudbreak Discovery Plc. With effect from Admission, Imperial X will hold equity positions and royalties in a variety of projects in the natural resources sector across multiple jurisdictions, primarily in the Americas and Africa. The Company is proposing to raise up to £1.5m by way of placing of new Ordinary Shares to support further prospect acquisitions. Current Mkt cap £4.7m Expected April 2021.
Parsley Box, the direct to consumer provider of ready meals to the 60+ demographic, recently announced its AIM IPO plans. Parsley Box provides ready meals, which are not required to be stored in a fridge or freezer, have a shelf life of up to six months and are cooked in minutes. The company reported revenue of £24.4m for the financial year ended 31 December 2020 (unaudited). Deal details TBC and admission is expected to occur late March/ early April 2021.
ActiveOps, a UK-based leader in Management Process Automation (MPA), providing a SaaS platform to large enterprises with complex and often global back-offices is planning to join AIM. Raising £75.7m for selling shareholders at 168p. Mkt cap expected at £119.8m. For FY20, the Group grew SaaS revenues by 21 per cent. to £16.2m (of which 13 per cent. was organic growth) (£13.4m for FY19). Total Group revenues grew 13.5 per cent. to £20.4m (£18.0m for FY19). The Group continues to invest in its product offering, with all R&D costs fully expensed to the Group’s profit and loss account. Due 29 March.
Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work.
NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021.
Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021.
Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company.
Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance.
Deliveroo has applied for admission of the Company's Shares to the standard listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the main market of the London Stock Exchange. Deliveroo works with over 115,000 best loved restaurants, takeaways and grocery stores globally and provide work to over 100,000 riders across 800 locations in 12 markets, serving 6m customers globally. The price range for the Offer has been set at £3.90 to £4.60 per Share, implying an estimated market capitalization at Admission of between £7.6 billion and £8.8 billion. Raising c. £1bn. Due 7 April
Companies: FA/ TYM PCF ROL SHED PRM TLY BMK CMET ADA
The CEO’s ambitious transformation programme is delivering results and Majestic is now in good shape to execute on plans to double its expenditure on new customer recruitment at an attractive expected future payback of 4.7x for every £1 invested. FY18 results demonstrated that the entrepreneurial Naked Wines division is the clear growth engine, providing opportunity to reduce UK earnings exposure and accelerate online sales.
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
Companies: TIME ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM
We are lucky that Next, one of the shrewdest commentators on retail sector developments, is among the first to update on Christmas trading. It confirms suspicions that unseasonable Q415 weather dented trade. However, there are also signs in the statement to the structural shifts occurring in UK retailing that could negatively affect sector valuations.
Companies: NXT NXT NXS NEXT NAC/U NXTGMS NEE NXTC NXGN NE/H NGW NEXT OILS 1316 YNPC ALNXT NXTV NFC NESF NEXD NXTG 282 NXGN NXTM NML 4814 3842 3186 7094 003580 065170 089140 137940 160550 NGB NXGEN NEXT NXB 348210 NEXT NEP NXTCL 8147 EFFI NXGT NEX NXRA NXSL NXMR NXTN NGMC NGAC NCAP
Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC Due mid Jan. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. Due 14 Jan. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
Companies: IUG CBP KAT APP RST DIS NICL BOKU CNIC HE1
In its key trading quarter, Distil has delivered a strong year-on-year revenue increase of 22%, despite 2020’s relatively muted Christmas and New Year festivities. This brings the cumulative year-to-date (YTD) revenue growth for the first nine months to 70%. Distil has also announced the launch of TRØVE, an innovative Botanical Vodka brand, catering to the emerging consumer trend for lower alcohol by volume (ABV) drinks but without flavour compromise. This expands and complements Distil’s brand portfolio, further underpinning future growth prospects.
Companies: Distil PLC
Diversification means Carr’s Group provides essential infrastructure to the global nuclear industry and occupies a critical position in food supply chains in the UK, the US and Europe. As a result, almost all of its businesses have remained operational during the coronavirus pandemic. While group profitability was adversely affected by the low oil price caused by the pandemic, we see potential for recovery driven by greater penetration of international markets for animal feed supplements during FY21 and a return to more normal oil prices from FY22 onwards.
Companies: Carr's Group PLC
Reverse Takeover by London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.L) following the acquisition of Refinitiv in an all share transaction for a total enterprise value of approximately US$27 billion.
Companies: ADME ROCK ZPHR DKL VARE SMRT PTRO MHC BOO