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The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are familiar. The belief that the roll-out of the vaccine and some relaxation of lockdown limitations will lead to a significant economic recovery, compared to the collapse seen in the first half of 2020, due to lockdowns. Indeed, the recent economic picture is becoming more optimistic than previous expectations. According to the ONS, the economy grew a little more than initially estimated in Q4 last year. This means GDP for 2020 as a whole contracted by 9.8%, revised up marginally but still the worst contraction on record. Markets, in general, have focused upon the potential scope and extent of the recovery. The sectors and stocks that have outperformed have been seen as ‘recovery’ plays with a rotation from stocks seen as ‘lockdown’ winners into those set to benefit from the ‘unlocking of society’ and/or exposed to the consumer. We expect 2021 will continue to be a “stock-picker’s” market. The sharp increase in the household savings ratio in Q4 highlights the scope for a recovery driven by expenditure. As further lockdown limitations are lifted, evidence of this growth will help to underpin the more optimistic outlook for Q2 and beyond.
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
Virgin Wines has a compelling investment case offering high growth yet predictable earnings. A unique sourcing model that drives high gross margins coupled with a tightly managed range turns stock rapidly. A low operating cost model and a disciplined approach to customer acquisition drive high EBITDA margins. A management team with an enviable record offers stability and experience through a disciplined growth strategy and a relatively capital light asset base. We see multiple years of high growth ahead.
Companies: Naked Wines plc
In what the company describe as an “unprecedented year”, Cake Box’s trading update for the year ended 31st March has once again confirmed the potency of the Group’s format and franchise model to us. Total revenues are reported ahead by c16%, supported by an attractive combination of strong organic franchisee growth (24 new sites) and very positive LFL growth (when trading was permitted). Balance sheet strength is also a major virtue, with period end net cash at £3.6m, which is expected to build further given Cake Box’s capital light, cash generative model – optionality around the use of cash is building in our view. The franchisee pipeline is strong, the kiosk opportunity is in very early days and the Group is very well set as UK retail and entertainment reopens.
Companies: Cake Box Holdings Plc
Distil’s full-year trading update for FY21 bears witness to strong sales and EBITDA growth, despite the challenges presented by Covid. The company’s New Product Development (NPD) activities have also delivered product portfolio expansion, with further products coming to market in 2021, thereby underpinning future growth prospects. Unaudited figures for FY21 show revenues increasing 48% to £3.616m, with adjusted EBITDA rising by around 55% to £302K on a like-for-like (LFL) basis. Strong cash generation saw year end cash reserves rise to £1m, compared with £858K at the prior year-end and £570K at the interim stage.
Companies: Distil PLC
In the last fortnight, we have surrendered some of the notable progress made over the last three months. That said, the optimism displayed by markets, driven by progress with vaccines and their rollout, persists. The recent direction of markets has been set by volatility in US markets, driven by specific retail market developments. Domestically, we have seen a broadly upbeat procession of results and trading updates/outlooks have, generally, been at least in line. The share price reactions have been commensurately positive. In addition to the results news flow, we have continued to see examples of M&A activity across a range of sectors. We have also seen a pick-up in IPO activity. Regarding the outlook, we have the Bank of England MPC Minutes on Thursday and Q4 2020 GDP numbers on 12 February. Most notably, we have the UK Budget on 3 March when the Chancellor will set out the next phase of the plan to tackle the virus and protect jobs. We will also have the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. That said, if signs of a greater than anticipated economic recovery are feasible in Q2 & Q3 and, potentially, only limited lockdowns are likely later in the year, grounds for greater optimism for UK small caps could lead to further outperformance in 2021, especially if M&A activity continues, in a world awash with cash.
Companies: AJIT ARW BPC BVC BAG BEG BON BWNG CLG CRPR EYE ECHO EPWN FDM FA/ GPH GNC HUW INSE KAPE KP2 MNZS NMCN NRR OBD PPC QFI ROL SAVE SCS SEN SOS SUR SNX TON TMG TGL TCN UEM VLS W7L WINK WYN
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
Companies: TIME ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM
We initiate coverage of Campari, the Italian distiller of the famous Aperol liquor, with a Reduce recommendation and 1.5% upside.
Companies: Davide Campari-Milano (CPR:BIT)Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR:MIL)
Cranswick’s Q3 2021 trading update for the 13 weeks to 26th December makes for very pleasant reading, with ‘strong’ sales momentum leading to a 6% CPTP upgrade to £123m, EPS of 188.3p, so yoy growth >20%. Cranswick is in rude health. Total sales growth is not disclosed, though we estimate in the mid-high single digit range, in part capturing the benefit of the strong trading already disclosed by the UK grocers and broader supply chain. As was observed through H1 2021, we are encouraged that growth appears broad based, with we believe all categories in positive volume territory. Cranswick is a highquality operator, which alongside the transfer of calories to in-home consumption is also capturing the benefit of sustained growth investment through new business wins (poultry and pork), and bolt-on corporate activity. Trading on a FY2021 PER of 18.3x, falling to 17.6x in FY2022 (5-year avg. 20.3x), and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.7x, falling to 10.3x (5-year avg. 12.3x), we see an attractive opportunity to access a high quality, cash generative, high returning growth stock. HOUSE STOCK.
Companies: Cranswick plc
Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard) this spring. Target valuation £20m raising c. £8m “to finalise the development and launch of a range of the Company's premium-quality consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids, which is fully compliant under UK law.” Kanabo Group (RTO by Spinnaker Opportunities SOP.L) on the main market (standard). Raising £6m, enlarged mkt cap £23.4m. Kanabo focuses on the distribution of Cannabis-derived products for medical patients, and non-THC products for CBD consumers . Due 16 Feb. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March Auction Technology Group is considering an IPO on the Main Market. The Group operates six world-leading online Marketplaces and proprietary global auction platform technology for curated online auctions . In FY20 the Group delivered pro forma revenue of £52.3 million, supported by notable underlying year-on-year growth from both Standalone ATG Group and Standalone Proxibid Group (12.4 per cent. and 40.4 per cent., respectively). For the same period, the Group delivered a strong profitability performance of £22.3 million pro forma Adjusted EBITDA representing a pro forma Adjusted EBITDA margin of 42.6 per cent. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Cordiant Digital Infrastructure to admit its shares on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange . Targeting a £300m raise. Cordiant invests in global infrastructure and real assets, running infrastructure private equity and infrastructure private credit strategies through limited partnership funds and managed accounts. Due 16 Feb 4basebio UK Societas is a specialist life sciences group focused on therapeutic DNA for gene therapies and DNA vaccines and providing solutions for effective and safe delivery of these DNA based products to patients. The Company has been divested from 4basebio AG , a German company listed on the Prime Standard segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange . No capital to be raised on Admission. Anticipated market capitalisation on AIM Admission: £14.53m. Due 17 Feb Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5m by way of private placement of new Common Shares to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada.
Companies: SYM ABDX NBI BPM TND BRCK PRES ENET CDGP
Today's news & views, plus announcements from HIK, STJ, GNS, HWDN, YEW, VINO.
Companies: Genus plc (GNS:LON)Yew Grove REIT plc (YEW:DUB)
Danone finally bows to investor pressure to split the Chairman and CEO roles. This is a good start, but we hope that the group will accompany this decision with strategic choices to relaunch growth.
Companies: Danone (BN:EPA)Danone SA (BN:PAR)
AG Barr has reported resilient FY2021 results that reflect the impact of the Covid pandemic and subsequent lockdowns for much of the year. Total sales fell by 11.2%, a creditable performance in our view, with CPTP down c12% to £32.8m (exactly in line with our expectations). Whilst the Group reports net cash of c£50m no dividend payment is proposed, albeit the Board has the clear intention to recommence payments in FY2022. The Group has made encouraging strategic progress in our view, with the channel reach extended whilst maintaining resilience across its operations. Looking into FY2022, it is expected that Covid will negatively impact trading through much of the first six months, with the outlook for H2 a little clearer, aided by an encouraging pipeline of innovation and NPD. We will look to reintroduce forecasts in short order, though anticipate a broadly flat FY2022 (robust underlying growth offset by the lost Rockstar contract), followed by high single digit growth in FY2023. Trading on c16x peak earnings (FY2019), the historic valuation looks attractive for AG Barr. HOUSE STOCK.
Companies: A.G. BARR p.l.c.
Dekel Agri-Vision has announced record CPO Production volumes, standing at 6895 tonnes for the month of March within their impressive March 2021 / Q1 2021 production update. We retain our strong buy rating with a 92% upside to our target price.
Companies: Dekel Agri-Vision Plc
Carr’s Group has reported a 5% rise in adjusted operating profit during H121. Strong performances from both the Speciality Agriculture and Agricultural Supplies divisions more than compensated for weaker demand from the oil and gas market, which adversely affected the Engineering division. However, the Engineering order book is strengthening with contracts from the nuclear and defence markets, so management expects a second half divisional recovery and its expectations for FY21 performance are unchanged.
Companies: Carr's Group PLC
