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    BETBULL HOLDING SE IN LIQU

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    BETBULL HOLDING SE IN LIQU

  • 15 May 18

LIBERUM: Elegant Hotels* - Outlook improved with top-line growth accelerating

Elegant offers a 9% FCF yield, 5% dividend yield, and is trading at a 40% discount to NAV. The group has seen improvement in occupancy in all its hotels and revenue visibility for the rest of the year sits at 95%, with greater confidence in the outlook vs. the same time last year.

Companies: Elegant Hotels Group
  • 15 May 18

Opening up a significant market

The Supreme Court of the USA (SCOTUS) yesterday voted 7-2 in favour of repealing the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992. Seven justices voted in favour of repealing with the court quoting: “Congress can regulate sports gambling directly, but if it elects not to do so, each State is free to act on its own. Our job is to interpret the law Congress has enacted and decide whether it is consistent with the Constitution. PASPA is not. PASPA “regulate[s] state governments’ regulation” of their citizens, New York, 505 U. S., at 166. The Constitution gives Congress no such power. The judgment of the Third Circuit is reversed.”

Companies: GVC WMH PPB PTEC

  • 16 May 18

£2 FOBT limit and self-help estimates

A £2 max stake, is a worst-case scenario for operators with betting shops, we estimate (table 1, p2) it will reduce operators’ revenues and profits significantly, though these estimates exclude any self-help initiatives available to management teams, such as shop closures, automation (SSBTs) and further omnichannel rollout to mitigate the impact of lower B2 limits. Furthermore, we estimate increasing POC tax from 15% to 20% for online (table 3, p4), would offset the taxes lost on FOBTs for the Treasury and help fund losses to the horse racing industry, the latter likely to be affected by the lower B2 limits. The increased POC tax would likely lead to further consolidation in a highly fragmented UK online market.

Companies: GVC WMH PPB PTEC

  • 15 May 18

Market stabilising

Elegant has this morning announced H1 results that should position it well to deliver our FY expectations. YoY improvements have been delivered across most KPIs and the company has confirmed trading is in line with expectations, we are therefore leaving our full year forecasts. We believe the shares represent good long-term value, trading below IPO price and at a 41% discount to NAV, with a yield of 4.7% which remains ahead of the sector average with solid cover in excess of 2.3x.

Companies: Elegant Hotels Group
  • 17 May 18

FY18 Interims

Patisserie Holdings announced H1 FY18 interim results to 31 March 2018 earlier this week, showing continued strong growth and a robust balance sheet, despite industry pressures across the casual dining and high street spaces.

Companies: Patisserie
  • 02 May 18

The Monthly

Prior to the financial crisis of 2008/09, it was widely believed in the stock market that certain sectors – most notably utilities, pharmaceuticals, food retailing and tobacco – were far less vulnerable to market downturns.

Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB NIPT PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL

  • 10 May 18

2% FY 19 PBT Guidance upgrade

Overall Next has benefited from weak comparatives as anticipated plus some late period weather effects which have combined to allow full-year PBT guidance to be raised by 2%. The numbers highlight the structural issues facing both Next and UK Retail in total. While the online Full Price sales growth of 18.1% was much better than we expected (+12%) Retail (the shops) were down 4.8% against a very weak comparative of -8.1% despite the weather boost.

Companies: NEXT
  • 10 May 18

Acceleration in Q1

Next has released great acceleration in Q1 and has upgraded its full-year guidance. Full-price sales increased by 6% and full-year sales are expected to grow by 2.2%.

Companies: NEXT
  • 14 May 18

LIBERUM: City Pub Company* - Robust trading and pipeline building

City Pub is on track to open ten sites this year and is already building its pipeline with another under development for 2019. This will bring its trading estate to 44, compared to 33 at IPO.

Companies: City Pub Group
  • 15 May 18

Execution remains strong

Lookers have this morning released a trading update for the three-month period to 31 March 2018, essentially confirming the group continues to trade in line with expectations and is seeing good trading momentum, particularly in used and aftersales. The group has a strong balance sheet, supported by positive operational cash flow. We continue to believe the shares look oversold, particularly in the context of its balance sheet flexibility, undemanding valuation and progress delivered to date based on strong management execution across all areas of the business.

Companies: Lookers
  • 18 Apr 18

LIBERUM: GAN plc* - Positive contract news in Italy and the USA

This week GAN has announced further market share gains in Italy and a key extension with Paddy Power Betfair in New Jersey. Both of these deals support forecasts.

Companies: GAN Plc
  • 30 Apr 18

Key takeaways from the Consumer reporting season

With a busy reporting season behind us we use this note to take stock. Stepping back we pull out the key themes which emerged across the sub-sectors we actively follow in the consumer space. On balance there was more cause for optimism. This is supportive of our top-down view that there is scope for a better H2 for consumer related stocks as cost headwinds ease and pressure on disposable income moderates. We also take a close look at 7 stocks we actively research and which reported over March and April. For each we use charts to depict the key takeaways from an investment case perspective.

Companies: DOM BAG NICL CHH GOAL RTN GYM MARS CVSG

  • 02 May 18

Leading e-commerce fashion brands undervalued

Results for Feb18 smashed expectations and guidance was universally positive, leading to upgrades of >10% as we hoped. While the shares have responded (+23%, 4 weeks), the valuation does not yet adequately capture the high growth and profit dynamics in BOO’s brands. Our detailed analysis of mix, scale economies, and automation savings supports a c10% blended EBITDA margin medium term, albeit not assumed in upgraded forecasts. Sales guidance looks conservative too and, after a “strong start” to FY19, we are optimistic about the upcoming Q1 next month noting forecasts still only asssume PLT/NG growth of 77% (vs >200% in H2 ended Feb).

Companies: Boohoo.Com
  • 09 Nov 17

AIM Journal


Companies: RWS G4M SRC PIM GAN ARTA

  • 30 Jan 18

Strong Q4 resulting in a beat

Strong Q4 trading update from Domino’s this morning. Group system sales grew by 18% with good performances across all territories. UK LFL’s grew by 6.1% ex splits and by 4.8% on a 52 week basis. International commentary and metrics make positive reading also. Net, the company is guiding to the full-year outcome being “slightly ahead of market expectations”. We are 4% ahead of consensus at the PBT level so keep our numbers unchanged. This is a pleasing update and demonstrates the company got back on track in H2 after a mixed H1. Capex spend is less in FY17 vs guidance but relates to phasing of the Warrington supply chain centre. We hope to get more clarity during the day. Going into H1-18 the company will be up against soft comps, especially Q1 and we also see it as a major beneficiary of the World Cup in June. On our forecasts the shares are trading on a FY18 P/E of 21x having been closer to 25x before the H1-17 LFL weakness. We see scope for the rating to move up and expect a positive share price reaction today.

Companies: Domino's Pizza Group