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    BETBULL HOLDING SE IN LIQU

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    BETBULL HOLDING SE IN LIQU

  • 04 Nov 19

THE MONTHLY November 2019

The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB BUR CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR MCL MUR NSF PCA PIN SRE PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE TON SHED VTA W7L

  • 21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 07 Nov 19

Trading update: flat YoY

Purplebricks’ trading update for the 6 months to 31 October 2019 reveals: “At a Group level, pro forma revenue is expected to be broadly flat relative to the same period last year ... and the Group enjoyed profitable trading in the First Half.”

Companies: Purplebricks Group
  • 06 Nov 19

Clothing and Online Problems Persist, Food Benefits from Gross Margin Investment

On numbers M&S has reported a weak 1H with Underlying PBT of £177m (HY 2018/19 £213m re-stated) down 17% as the company suffered weak sales in Clothing & Home (LFL – 5.5%) and invested revenue in repositioning both sides of its offer. We would expect that the updated guidance and the 1H performance are likely to result in full year 2019/20 market consensus estimates staying at around £450-470m pre-exceptional items, implying less of a reduction in 2H.

Companies: Marks And Spencer Group
  • 06 Nov 19

Change of CEO & other Directorate changes

CVS has announced various senior management changes, most significantly the immediate departure of long standing CEO Simon Innes. His successor is current FD Richard Fairman, who has made a significant contribution across various fronts since joining the company last August. The Head of Finance, Robin Alfonso, will assume the role of FD, whilst Ben Jacklin, previously Director of Practices Operations, has been promoted to Chief Operating Officer. By promoting within the Board has ensured continuity and avoided a period of uncertainty in terms of succession. CVS has enjoyed tremendous success under Simon Innes’s 16 years of leadership and thus his departure is clearly a source of disappointment. However, he leaves CVS in good shape with a balanced veterinary proposition and on a stable footing after the temporary setback of 2018. The company is also transitioning from a consolidation led strategy to focusing more on organic growth through maximising the potential of various income streams and deleveraging the balance sheet. In this regard the huge roles both Richard Fairman and Ben Jacklin have played over the last 15 months should not be underestimated, making them a strong team to oversee the next phase of CVS’s growth. Current trading is reported to be in line with expectations with a full update to be provided at the AGM stage on the 29th November. Our forecasts have been prudently positioned. The shares are up 46% YTD and trade on a cal’20 P/E of 18.2x and 12x EV/EBITDA.

Companies: CVS Group
  • 06 Nov 19

Finding the floor

We update our forecasts following Lookers announcement on the 1st November that trading has continued to deteriorate and the now expects adj. PBT in 2019E of £16m (vs ZC forecast of £39.0m previously) equating to a c.60% EPS downgrade, and a c.50% downgrade in 2021E. The group has experienced continued headwinds across new and used cars highlighted by recent SMMT data for October. The balance sheet remains robust with significant facilities available, 2019E net tangible asset value per share of 34p backed with freehold and long leasehold of 80p per share net debt/EBITDA at the end of 2019E of 1.2x, based on our new forecasts. There is clear longterm earnings recovery potential based on previous peak EPS of 15.8p in 2016A, albeit increased regulatory costs across the sector make reaching this peak unlikely in the near term.

Companies: Lookers
  • 06 Nov 19

Positive lfl sales growth in Food

The group has announced a slightly better than expected H1 19/20 figures, mainly thanks to the improved efficiency and better sales volume in the Food division.

Companies: Marks And Spencer Group
  • 07 Nov 19

Div cut signalled but strategic pivot

Halfords (HFD) has reported 1H PBT of £25.9m against consensus of £22.8m (1H 2018/19 £30.5m) – all numbers pre IFRS 16. It has also maintained current year profit guidance, indicated investment related reduction to consensus for FY 21 and announced that it will cut the full year dividend and re-base FY 21 dividend to 12p.

Companies: Halfords Group
  • 16 Jul 19

Results ahead of expectations, positive outlook


Companies: Fulham Shore
  • 11 Nov 19

Revising 2020E and 2021E

We update our forecasts following Inchcape’s Q3 IMS on 7th November, and focus our attention on 2020E and 2021E estimates after the Group confirmed it was well placed to hit 2019E last week. In 2020E and 2021E we expect a more challenging market in Asia, and currency headwinds in regions such as Australia to persist and adjust our forecast accordingly. We now expect adj. PBT in 2020E of £270.0m (vs £307.1m previously) and £268.5m in 2021E (vs £320.9m previously), which triggers a c12% EPS downgrade in each year. We remain comfortable with our long-term thesis set out in December 2018 and continue to see Inchcape as a unique investment opportunity. The business continues to invest in the higher margin distribution business, and growth of this segment should act as a key factor in the re-rating in our view.

Companies: Inchcape
  • 14 Jan 19

Opportunity knocks

We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.

Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI

  • 01 Oct 19

STATE OF CHARGE - INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN EV CHARGING

Government bans on new fossil fueled vehicles in many major economies are likely to drive significant growth in electric vehicles (“EVs”) over the next twenty years. This will create growth in electricity demand from EV charging. The volume of energy to be supplied creates opportunities for both supply companies and generators and the provision of charge points is already creating a new industry. However, the timing of this demand puts pressure on local distribution infrastructure. While smart charging and vehicle to grid technology offer solutions, we believe these will only be partial given likely charging behaviour and as a result there will be demand for additional grid capacity and for other solutions. These other solutions include charger located storage and distributed generation.

Companies: CNA NG/ YU/ DRX GOOD RED SMS IKA AFC

  • 01 Nov 19

Small Cap Feast

DNEG Limited One of the world's leading digital visual effects, animation and stereo conversion companies for feature film and television.The Offer will be comprised of new Shares to be issued by the Company (to raise expected gross proceeds of £150m). Admission is expected to take place in November 2019. Zaim Credit Systems— Zaim currently provides loans of up to Russian Roubles 30,000 (£375) to retail customers through its network of just over 95 sites predominantly in Moscow. Looking to raise £2.6m. Mkt cap £10.9m. Due 4th Nov. 2018 net interest £10.1m, PBT £835k.

Companies: THR CPT CCS INTO PPH PRM BST SAE LEK KDNC

  • 05 Nov 19

Lookers - New retail sales declined in Q3

Lookers has issued a trading update indicating the performance of its new vehicle activities deteriorated as the important September selling month progressed. As a result, Q319 new car gross profit fell by £7m compared to the prior year. In addition, it has accelerated its site consolidation and closure plan to improve operational performance and will take a charge of £8m in H219. Despite robust performances by the higher-margin used car and aftersales segments, management cut its FY19 underlying PBT guidance by 50% to £20m. The CEO and COO are both stepping down with immediate effect. The interim executive team and full-time replacements need to focus on restoring internal and external confidence, as well as driving recovery in still-challenging markets.

Companies: Lookers
  • 26 Oct 18

Q318 IMS

The Pendragon share price has demonstrated resilience in the context of the wider liquidity squeeze in UK small and mid cap stocks that has recently driven a rotation in sentiment from growth to value. Whilst the group cannot be immune to wider industry pressures highlighted in the Q318 IMS, we believe the clear strategy to build its used car business and software platform will provide for a return to growth in FY19. This will be funded through strategic disposals and lower capital commitments to the new car market. This includes the potential sale of the group’s US Motor Group which would contribute to a planned £200m swing from a net debt position to a cash rich group over coming years. Whilst our Neutral stance acknowledges the negative sector sentiment that is unlikely to unwind short term, we remain alert to buying opportunities into any weakness.

Companies: Pendragon