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    BETBULL HOLDING SE IN LIQU

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    BETBULL HOLDING SE IN LIQU

  • 23 Jul 19

Quarterly Research Outlook - Summer 2019

In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.

Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 14 Aug 19

H1 results

H1 results from Lookers are largely as anticipated, albeit we note the interim dividend has been maintained and H1 net debt 15% down vs. the year end position. Additional costs relating to regulatory issues have been flagged, and we make minor adjustments to our 2020E and 2021E forecasts with 2019E maintained. With property assets amounting to 80p per share, and a dividend yield of 9.3%, we continue to believe deep value exists over the medium term.

Companies: Lookers
  • 02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 11 Jul 19

Diversification and scale for online success

The global online gaming market generated c £40bn of gross gaming revenues (GGR) in 2018 and newly regulating markets (the US) are expected to contribute to 7% CAGR to 2023 (according to H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC)). However, while regulated markets have provided significant opportunities for operators to date, government intervention remains a constant threat and legislation is tightening. Some mature markets (notably the UK) have been raising taxes and implementing regulatory burdens, which increases the cost of business. In our view, success will depend on a combination of scale, diversification, proprietary technology and a strong balance sheet. Many of the 12 operators in this report should benefit from these dynamics and sector valuations remain attractive, at 12.6x P/E, 8.2x EV/EBITDA and 6.0% dividend yield for FY19.

Companies: 888 ACX BETSB ORPH GVC JPJ OPAP PTEC RNK WMH

  • 01 Aug 19

THE MONTHLY August 2019

The introduction of IFRS 2 in 2004 generated considerable debate about the best approach for handling ‘share-based payments’ (SBP). While it is clearly a cost to shareholders, which should be included in the statutory reporting lines through the P&L account, the question arose as to whetherit should be part of our underlying EBIT calculation.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VAL VTA W7L

  • 05 Jul 19

Half time report

In this note and following the SMMT June data released yesterday, we look at the key dynamics of the sector during H1 2019 and how this is likely to impact the rest of the calendar year. The dealers have challenges on several different fronts, which could lead to some earnings pressure. However, we do believe valuations have reached a trough point, balance sheets remain strong, and FCF should start to steadily build as the capex cycle for most dealers has come to an end.

Companies: CAMB LOOK MMH VTU PDG

  • 25 Jul 19

Decent Q2, UK regulatory pain less than expected

GVC reported strong Q2 19 numbers, with total NGR growing by 3%, on a cc basis. The performance was driven by solid online momentum (17% cc with gaming up 16% and sports up 20%). UK retail reported a 19% drop (hurt by the £2 stake cap limit), while European retail grew by 13%. Management continues to expect double-digit growth in online NGR and EBITDA and operating profit to come in line with expectations.

Companies: GVC
  • 13 Aug 19

Continued outperformance vs. the market

Marshall Motors has delivered a strong set of H1 results for 2019E in the context of a challenging trading environment. The group’s H1 results reflect a strong unit sales performance, outperforming the new retail, new fleet and used car markets, together with further growth in aftersales revenues. We update our forecast to reflect the impact of IFRS 16, albeit some of this is absorbed by the strong underlying trading patterns and the performance delivered to date, with our assumptions also at the lower end of the consensus range. We remain happy with the long term investment case, aided by a robust balance sheet and solid track record of execution and outperforming the wider market.

Companies: Marshall Motor
  • 19 Aug 19

Small Cap Feast


Companies: TSTR IXI ATM CORA GAN ATYM REDX BRD OKYO

  • 27 Mar 19

Rally seen in the first quarter stalls

Parliamentary and Brexit developments continue to hold centre stage, although the precise path forward remains as unclear as ever. The uncertainty over Brexit, worries over a possible slowdown in the US and the outlook for global economic growth generally have all contributed to the recent falls in markets. While the rally seen since the start of the year has petered out, most indices have still made progress. In Share News & Views we comment on Bloomsbury Publishing, Bonhill Group*, Braemar Shipping Services*, Burford, Clarkson, LightwaveRF*, Marshall Motor Holdings and Synectics*.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LWRF LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L

  • 17 Jan 19

Cenkos: Arena Events Group Plc - FY18E Trading Update

Arena announced a trading update for the year ended 31 December 2018, which saw a strong performance in the US and Middle East offset by operational issues in the UK Structures & Scaffolding business. These appear to be the result of ‘overtrading' (revenue beat expectations, but costs incurred materially increased), leading us to lower our FY18E Adj EBITDA estimates. We see this as a one-off issue, which management is taking steps to address (new regional management team). Trading on a FY19E EV/Adj EBITDA of 6.9x, we continue to see significant value in the shares. Buy

Companies: Arena Events
  • 20 Jun 18

Cenkos: Leisure Sector -- Suspend coverage

Due to a change in sector focus Cenkos Securities plc has suspended coverage of the following stocks (see table 1). Our previous recommendation and forecasts can no longer be relied upon. Please contact Cenkos for further information.

Companies: TUI CCL CPG DOM GNK JDW JE/ MARS MERL MAB FLTR PTEC RTN TCG WTB WMH IHG SSPG

  • 10 Apr 19

Cenkos: Arena Events Group Plc - FY18A Results

One-off operational issues in the UK overshadowed an otherwise successful year, with Arena completing eight acquisitions, and recording strong organic growth across the group. We expect FY19E to be a year of consolidation, as issues in the UK are addressed and acquisitions fully integrated. FY20E looks very promising, boosted by several new and returning golf contracts. We consider the near halving of the share price over the past three months to be significantly overdone. Buy.

Companies: Arena Events
  • 09 May 19

EPS upgrades

Cambria has delivered robust H1 2019 performance, which was ahead of our forecast at the adjusted PBT level (£5.5m vs. ZC £5.3m). We update our forecasts to reflect this outperformance and now expect adj. PBT for the full year of £11.0m (vs. £9.9m previously). Organic earnings upgrades in this sector are rare at present, and we believe this is down to the strong execution in reshaping the portfolio towards the premium/luxury brands. We remain confident in Cambria’s ability to deliver strong shareholder value from here.

Companies: Cambria Automobiles
  • 30 Jul 19

H1 results

We remain comfortable with our long-term thesis set out in December 2018 and continue to see Inchcape as a unique investment opportunity. We retain our confidence in its sustainable business model acting as a long-standing partner for a number of OEMs. The movement away from retail has gathered pace (representing 92% of trading profits vs 90% in H1 2018) and growth of the higher margin distribution business should act as a key factor in the rerating in our view.

Companies: Inchcape