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    BETBULL HOLDING SE IN LIQU

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    BETBULL HOLDING SE IN LIQU

  • 19 Jun 17

Support Group

In light of the UK election, we highlight our favoured overseas earners, operators in defensive markets and those capable of taking market share, but our main topic is the structure of the UK employment market. The UK has the lowest unemployment rate since 1975 at 4.6%, and there are, consequently, fewer and fewer candidates to fill vacancies. This suggests recruitment companies may struggle to grow, but there are structural changes in the UK labour force that offer growth opportunities. Temporary labour continues to expand relative to the point in the economic cycle, its importance accelerating since 2008, and part-time labour has grown at twice the rate of full-time labour throughout both the last cycle and over the long term. There are, of course, specialist temporary recruiters, but the part-time market appears relatively untapped (at least by the quoted companies) despite being c.5x the size of the temporary segment in terms of numbers.

Companies: FOUR ACL BOOT CLL CMS CNCT FCRM LOK PPH RNWH SVCA STAF UTW WATR

  • 20 Jun 17

Morning Note

Surface Transforms* (SCE): Progress headwinds (CORP) | Aukett Swanke* (AUK): Interim results (CORP) | Horizonte Minerals* (HZM): Awards further contracts for the feasibility study (CORP) | 7digital* (7DIG): Acquisition confirmed and major new contract (COR) | Accsys (AXS): A year of strong progress (BUY) | Shanta Gold (SHG): Fund raise, debt restructure and acquisition (U/R)

Companies: SCE AUK HZM 7DIG AXS SHG

  • 20 Jun 17

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 20-06-2017

N Brown Group (BWNG LN) Start to the year confirms BWNG transformation benefits emerging

Companies: N Brown Group
  • 23 Jun 17

N+1 Singer - Marston's - Updated forecasts & view

We are doing some house keeping on Marston’s forecasts post recent interims and corporate activity. The latter was accretive but given consumer / cost headwinds we have adopted a more prudent view on underlying assumptions. Net, we lower our FY17/FY18 EPS by 3%-5% respectively to bring us in line with consensus. Sentiment towards the sector is currently at a low-ebb, reflecting consumer spend uncertainties, ongoing terrorist related media coverage, sterling weakness and mixed sector newsflow. Given a sub 9x P/E, 6% DPS yield and 12% FCF yield we feel most of the uncertainty is priced in and the shares are oversold. We see upside risk as management continue to deliver solid operational performances and investors start factoring in an improving leverage trend. In the interim a market leading 6% dividend yield is compelling and a strong support for the stock at the current depressed levels. We stay at Buy with a revised 12m TP of 140p (vs 150p). The next news is a 42 week trading update on the 26th July. The LFL comp is 2.5% vs our full year working assumption of 1%. Peer Greene King report finals next Thurs 29th and we are expecting a mixed tenor.

Companies: Marston's
  • 21 Jun 17

Q1 trading enough for some relief

Q1 trading is encouraging overall, with positive Costa LFL and robust Premier Inn RevPAR. FY18 consensus looks appropriately conservative, with no change expected at this early stage of the year. At c.10x FY18 EBITDA the valuation feels well poised, with upside from Costa initiatives likely to be capped by challenging UK consumer/high street dynamics. HOLD. Call 7:45am.

Companies: Whitbread
  • 05 May 17

A shore thing

We initiate with a 25p price target and a Buy recommendation. Fulham Shore is a highly investable opportunity with a strong pipeline of new openings, a differentiated product-led offering with an attractive pricing strategy, proven financial dynamics, a highly experienced management team and a number of incremental profit levers.

Companies: Fulham Shore
  • 08 Jun 17

Morning Note

Best of the Best* (BOTB): Prelims comfortably ahead, 6.5p special div (CORP) | Sopheon* (SPE): Positive AGM statement (CORP) | SCISYS* (SSY): Very positive AGM trading update (CORP)

Companies: BOTB SPE SSY

  • 21 Jun 17

Small Cap Breakfast

GYG—Intention to float by the superyacht painting, supply and maintenance company. Due 5 July. Raising £6.9m new plus vendor sale of £21.5m at 100p. Mkt Cap c. £47m. Revenue of €54.6m in FY16 and adjusted EBITDA of €6.7m. | Greencoat Renewables - Schedule 1. Targeting a portfolio of operating renewable electricity generation assets, initially investing in wind generation assets in Ireland. Offer TBC. Due Mid July. | FFI Holdings— Specialist in the provision of completion contracts to the entertainment industry for films, television, miniseries and streaming product. Offer TBA. Expected 30 June. | QUIZ— Omni-channel fast fashion womenswear Company intention to float. Due July 2017. Offer TBA | Ethernity Networks—Schedule 1 from Israeli based specialist in data processing technology used in high end carrier ethernet applications across the telecom, mobile, security and data centre markets. Expected late June. Offer TBA. | Jangada Mines—Sch 1 advanced stage PGM exploration project containing what the Directors understand to be the largest PGM resource, and only pre-development PGM project, in South America. Offer TBA. Expected late June. | Phoenix Global Mining— US Brown field copper play. Expected late June. Offer TBA | Touchstone Exploration— Oil E&P company active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Interests of approximately 90k gross acres. Production c. 1.3k boepd. Raising £1.5m. Expected mkt cap £7.5m - 26 June. | I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 7 June admission. | Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission late June | Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Expected late June. | Rockpool Acquisitions—Northern Ireland based Company seeking strong NI acquisition with an international outlook. Raising £1.5m at 10p. Due 5 July. | Residential Secure Income - social housing REIT raising up to £300m Admission due c.12 July. | ScotGems—Admission due 26 June. Seeking £50-£100m. To investing in a diversified portfolio of Small Cap Companies listed on global stock markets | DP Eurasia—Intention to float from the exclusive master franchisee of the Domino's Pizza brand in Turkey, Russia,Azerbaijan and Georgia . £20m primary raise plus a partial vendor sale. | AIB—Intention to float from AIB, Ireland's leading retail and commercial bank. The Minister for Finance intends to sell approximately 25% of the Ordinary Shares of AIB. Valuation range €10.6-€13.3bn. Admission end June. | Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. | NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. | Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe. | Supermarket Income REIT– Up to £200m raise to acquire a diversified portfolio of supermarket real estate assets in the UK, providing long-term RPI-linked income. Due 21 July.

Companies: ECHO ORCP WYN LEK HRN HAL FCR EZH MERC WGB

  • 20 Jun 17

N+1 Singer - N Brown Group - Start to the year confirms BWNG transformation benefits emerging

Product sales growth of 10.2% clearly highlights the strategic transformation is gaining momentum, and marks the 5th consecutive quarterly improvement in performance, comfortably beating market expectations. Whilst Financial Services income is down 5%, we continue to expect the trend within FS on both interest and non-interest lines to shift to growth from H2, with important implications for profitability from the improved quality of the file and arrears rates. There is no change to core guidance today although we expect small (1-2%) EPS upgrades and a c£10m downgrade to ND in response to the news 5 loss-making stores will be closed, having completed the review of that business. Given the online transformation, anticipated F4F benefits, and as we near an inflection point for international growth (in Q2), we have raised our 12-month target by 16% to 350p and continue to point investors to the re-rating potential. Buy.

Companies: N Brown Group
  • 28 Apr 17

N+1 Singer - T3 Trend spotting - Strategy update

In our third edition of Trend spotting we stick with our suggestion at the end of March to up European exposure and we review the recent market moves and macro trends. We comment on the recent strong performance of our growth, quality and momentum styles which we expect to continue and we examine what happened to sectors around the last general election period in 2015, adding some new colour.

Companies: AUG GNS IQE NTG SDL SPH SDY TRI VEC XAR GHT BOY CRW EMIS VCT ECK GLE GHH DATA AVON CHH DPH HILS SDM ZYT MUR RPS LWB EKF SUN UDG SYNT CINE DOTD MPM FUM CLIN RENE ATQT SERV ERGO BCA BUR DRV SCS JUP FDP GBG GTLY HW/ EAH SFR PHD CXENSE KNOS NETD G4M GFIN FUTR ULS RHL RAT FEN LOOP MYSL

  • 05 Apr 17

Investment Rationale: (Technically-based recommendation)

This recommendation has been prompted by a positive assessment of the technical outlook for DPG’s share price. That said, there appear to be grounds for encouragement on the fundamental front too although signs of a slowdown in sales in the first few weeks of 2017, reflecting increased competition, have put pressure on the share price.

Companies: Domino'S Pizza Group
  • 19 Jan 17

Panmure Morning Note 19-01-2017

Pets at Home have released a Q3 trading update this morning that will disappoint the market. Group like-for-like revenue growth was just +0.1% through 3Q16 as subdued trading across the Merchandise business weighed on continued strong growth in Veterinary Services. Profit outlook for FY17 remains in line with expectations. Suspect the shares will come under pressure.

Companies: Pets At Home Group
  • 07 Jun 17

Morning Note

Motif Bio (MTFB): Remain positive on REVIVE-2 readout (BUY) | LiDCO* (LID): US FDA approves latest monitor (CORP) | Zambeef* (ZAM): Still not firing on all cylinders (CORP) | Cambridge Cognition* (COG): Speech recognition clinical trial software (CORP) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): locking in growth potential (CORP) | Shoe Zone (SHOE): Disappointing H1 (HOLD) | Minds + Machines* (MMX): Valuing renewals (CORP) | Intercede* (IGP): Prelims on track (CORP)

Companies: MTFB LID ZAM COG WATR SHOE MMX IGP

  • 08 Jun 17

Prelims comfortably ahead, 6.5p special div

Adj. PBT of £1.5m is 7% ahead of our upgraded expectation and shows 43% y-o-y growth, driven principally through a meaningful improvement in both gross and operating margins. Cash generation meanwhile continued to be very strong with FCF/adj. PAT >100% for the fourth consecutive year. This meant a year-end cash position of £2.1m, of which £0.8m will be distributed to shareholders through an ordinary and special dividend of 1.4p and 6.5p respectively. We upgrade FY18E adj. PBT by 6% (suggesting 8% y-o-y growth) – conservative assumptions we believe, considering that BOTB plans to increase its marketing spend by c.70% to £2m, which if used as effectively as previous years, provides upside risk.

Companies: Best Of The Best
  • 15 May 17

Rising dough

Fulham Shore’s proven management team is expanding both its main brands, Franco Manca and The Real Greek, ahead of expectations. FY17 saw a 55% rise in restaurants open, to 45. We estimate 60 by end FY18, more than double the end FY16 figure. The authentic, good value, casual dining experience produces average ROCE at restaurant level of over 20%. Most openings are in Headline EBITDA profit from month one. The 3rd April trading update highlighted trading in line with (ambitious) expectations, which is in comparison to many other US and UK brands, which have found the past year difficult. Fulham Shore has clearly demonstrated robust, strong growth, expanding from London and out to provincial locations, with eventual potential for franchise, a third brand and international expansion.

Companies: Fulham Shore