bet-at-home’s (BAH) Q121 results are strong in the context of management guidance for FY21. Trading in the early part of FY21 is likely to be as bad as it gets for BAH. The initial (negative) effects of regulatory changes in Germany will be followed by a more favourable sporting calendar and management’s belief that increased legal certainty from Q321 will help the company to better plan and develop its business. Management is optimistic that regulated companies should be able to take share from
Companies: bet-at-home.com AG
bet-at-home (BAH) is an established European online sports betting and e-gaming provider. It largely operates in unregulated grey markets that are characterised by strong cash flow, although they also carry commensurately higher regulatory risks. BAH enters FY21 with less regulatory uncertainty than it has for a number of years, as its largest market, Germany (c 36% of revenue) transitions to a fully regulated market. Following better than expected FY20 results we upgrade our FY21 EBITDA estimat
bet-at-home’s (BAH’s) Q320 results showed a strong increase in EBITDA of 27% whereas revenue continued to be affected by prior regulatory changes. After many years of uncertainty (and confusion), new regulations in Germany effective from July 2021 and transition regulations effective from the middle of October 2020 will broadly halve expectations for EBITDA next year. Despite the favourable award of a nationwide online sports betting licence to BAH, new restrictions to protect players, for examp
bet-at-home (BAH) is a long-established sports betting brand, successfully cross-selling into gaming. Despite the impact of COVID on sports betting and regulatory (Poland and Switzerland), the revenue (GGR) decline in Q220 of 11.2% was better than expected, with improved momentum from Q120 (13.4%). The resumption of sports events in the summer provides encouragement for the remainder of FY20. Regulatory risks remain high given impending changes in BAH’s most important market, Germany. The net ca
bet-at-home reported headline figures for H120 ahead of consensus expectations. The results are encouraging given revenue growth in Q220 was better than might have been expected with the regulatory changes (Poland and Switzerland) and the impact of COVID-19 on sports betting. Management has reiterated its guidance for FY20, and the strong financial position makes the prospective dividend yield of 7.0% look attractive.
Given the recent loss of revenue from Switzerland and the tough comparative of Q119, growth in Q120 was expected to be negative. The outbreak of COVID-19 and subsequent cancellation of many sporting events compounded the forecast negative growth rate. Comparatives become easier as the year progresses and management has acted quickly to reduce unnecessary costs, so the company’s guidance for FY20 has been reiterated. Our forecasts remain broadly unchanged. The prospective yield of 6.3%, which is
bet-at-home (BAH) is an established European online sports betting and e-gaming provider. It largely operates in unregulated grey markets that are characterised by strong cash flow, although they also carry commensurately higher regulatory risks. Upcoming legislation in Germany will provide clarity but will likely result in responsible gambling restrictions and potentially higher taxes. FY19 results were above our estimates but management has guided to a more conservative outlook for FY20 and w
After years of uncertainty, all 16 German states have agreed in principle that the July 2021 Gambling Treaty will include a unified approach to allowing e-gaming (casino and poker). This follows recent news that e-gaming was to be banned altogether. This new development is clearly a very positive step forward for the industry. The announcement is particularly important for bet-at-home (BAH), which derives c 20% of net gaming revenues (NGR) from German e-gaming. We will update our estimates at F
bet-at-home (BAH) is a long-established sports betting brand, successfully cross-selling into gaming. Against the tough backdrop of the 2018 World Cup and Swiss IP blocking (from July 2019), BAH reported an encouraging set of Q319 results and now has 5.2m customers. Regulatory risks remain high, as witnessed by the IP blocking in Switzerland but FY19 guidance continues to look conservative. The stock was affected by September’s announcement of increased taxes in Austria but the net cash balance
bet-at-home (BAH) has reported Q319 gross gaming revenues (GGR) of €35.7m and EBITDA of €5.6m, slightly above our estimates. We are therefore raising our FY19 GGR and EBITDA forecasts by 4.4% and 2.5%, respectively, so that they are now at the top end of guidance. As disclosed in September, BAH is liable for €11.9m of Austrian tax back payments and annual tax will also rise by c €5m, which reduces our normalised FY19 EPS by 16.6% . Including the tax liability, net cash was €33.3m at Q3119. Gi
Online gaming legislation varies widely across Europe and bet-at-home (BAH) focuses predominantly on grey (or ambiguous) markets. At H119, the company’s core markets were Germany (35% of gross win), Austria (c 30%) and Eastern Europe, and this report provides further detail on recent regulatory changes (particularly in Germany). BAH is a strong brand with 5m customers, a capital light model and high cash generation. The stock trades at 9.9x EV/EBITDA and 13.0x P/E for FY20e with an attractive 9.
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Following this morning’s positive trading statement from RBG and, encouraged by Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirming that the hospitality industry can re-open according to the government’s roadmap, we are upgrading our FY21E EBITDA (Adj.) forecast by c.£1.5m to -£6.75m. Our upgrade reflects management’s ultra-tight cost control, helped by support from third parties. It’s a little too early to consider upgrading revenue forecasts but the ‘bearish scenario’ does recede in light of the newsflow.
Companies: Revolution Bars Group Plc
FY21 adj. PBT was 7% ahead of expectations and 7% ahead of FY20, despite lockdowns. Gross margins were much stronger than expected. Vertu’s market-leading omni-channel strategy has supported sales and led to a very strong start to FY22E (sales +135% in March/April against lockdown comps). We increase FY22E PBT by 49%, allowing for some caution due to new car supply constraints. Vertu remains our top pick in the sector due to the track record, strength of management and balance sheet. Raise TP fr
Companies: Vertu Motors PLC
Semper Fortis Esports* recently announced its intention to IPO onto the Access Segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Semper is a multi-operational Esports organisation focusing on gaming technology solutions, brand enhancement and high growth team infrastructures. The company plans to raise £2.5m to develop their three core areas of establishing an esports team, forming partnerships with brands for sponsorship and B2B consultancy services. The Board are highly experienced in spor
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Vertu has released an impressive set of FY results, which are ahead of our previously upgraded forecasts. Trading momentum remains strong with pent-up demand still evident, and with healthy cash generation and a strong balance sheet we believe Vertu is well positioned. This note focuses on the scaled business (#9 in Europe) that has been built up from nothing 15 years ago, and we increase our near term intrinsic value from 62.9p to 75.6p per share implying a healthy risk/reward profile from curr
IAG’s Q1 top-line performance was weaker than market expectations but the operating results were in line. The capacity outlook was largely restricted by the less favourable (amidst the pandemic) geographic mix compared to its peers.
Companies: International Consolidated Airlines Group SA
Angling Direct has a track record of delivering top line growth, which FY21 results further build on. Under strengthened leadership, ANG has also proven that it can deliver higher levels of profitability too, including online. In highly fragmented UK and European markets, there is potential for substantial profitable growth in the future. After a positive start to FY22, we have upgraded our EBITDA forecasts by 8%/4% in FY22/FY23. On continued good execution, we see scope for further outperforman
Companies: Angling Direct Plc
The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are fa
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The group has announced a broadening and strengthening of the board through two new appointments. We introduce an additional two years of forecast and raise our target price to £31.
Companies: Best of the Best plc
tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to ta
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The streamlining of operations, investment in central functions and recent board appointments provides us with confidence that the business can comfortable scale to 100+ pubs. The expansion potential is underpinned by having the lowest leverage across the pub space and a favourable acquisition market which play to management’s strengths. Alongside this, we expect steady margin accretion once trading conditions normalise, providing multiple levers for growth. We increase FY21E and FY22E EBITDA by
Companies: City Pub Group PLC
The Budget offered a clear picture of the state of the economy. Put simply, the economy will be 3% smaller in three years’ time than it would have been without the impact of the pandemic. However, it is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, six months earlier than previously thought. The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 4.1% in 2021, (lower than the 5.5% outlined in November 2020). It has set its GDP forecasts in 2022, 2023 and 2024 at 7.3%, 1.7% and 1.6%. Positive
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MAST Energy Developments (MED) is to IPO on the Standard List on 14th April 2021 under the ticker MAST. The company has raised £5m giving a market capitalisation on listing of c. £23m. MED is currently a 100% subsidiary company of AIM quoted, Kibo Energy*. MED was established to acquire and develop a portfolio of flexible power plants in the UK and become a multi-asset operator in the rapidly growing Reserve Power market. PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Se
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Wickes to demerge from Travis Perkins and list on the Main Market. Expected 28 April. Advance Energy to complete an RTO on AIM indirectly acquiring up to 50% of Carnarvon Petroleum Timor which holds a 100 per cent. working interest and is the contractor under the Buffalo PSC, offshore Timor-Leste. Carnarvon Petroleum Timor is a subsidiary of ASX listed company, Carnarvon Petroleum Limited. The net proceeds of the Placing of approximately £20.01m (approximately US$27.51mm) will be used to fund
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Catena Group (CTNA.L) to complete reverse takeover and be renamed Insig AI and is acquiring the remaining shares of Insight Capital Partners. Insight, which is based in the UK, is a data science and machine learning solutions company that provides bespoke web-based applications, advanced analytical tools and modern technology infrastructure to make machine learning accessible to investment professionals. Insight has developed five products specifically aimed at accelerating an asset manager's d
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Watchstone Group plc (LON:WTG) intends to apply for admission of its Ordinary Shares to trading on the Access segment of the AQSE Growth Market operated by the Aquis Stock Exchange (AQSE). It is expected trading will commence on 30 April 2021. Catena Group (CTNA.L) to complete reverse takeover and be renamed Insig AI and is acquiring the remaining shares of Insight Capital Partners. Insight, which is based in the UK, is a data science and machine learning solutions company that provides bespok
Companies: SAR SYM WRES FUL BOIL OEX UNG ALBA ETX OSI