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In absolute terms, revenues continued to grow in Q3 23, but organic momentum is eroding despite the continued acceleration in indexation. Prices began to adjust significantly lower in Q3 23 in Paris, including in the most expensive areas.
Companies: Gecina (GFC:EPA)Gecina SA (GFC:PAR)
AlphaValue
The nice top-line growth of 7% YoY in H1 23 was insufficient to bring the NAV growth in positive territories. The GAV was down 7% YoY, a fall last seen in 2008.
The 8% lfl performance in Offices was mostly attributable to the company’s positioning in the Paris CBD (scarce ground, inflating rents) on top of rising indexation of 4.8%. This should bode well for the Q2 and Q3 23.
Supported by the combination of inflating indexation and lower vacancy, the lfl top line accelerated in H2 22. However, the slight yield decompression resulted in some erosion of the NAV per share yoy.
The number of contracts nearing €1,000/sqm/year is increasing in the Paris CBD. A land shortage in central locations continues to push rents higher and favours the full transmission of inflation through indexation. The contribution from the latter should accelerate further in 2023-24.
Nothing bad occurred materially in Q2 22. Following February-July’s strong adjustment, this should help stabilise the share price or generate a bout of technical recovery.
Gecina’s pre-let pipeline coupled with rising inflation will provide the company with steady top-line growth in FY 22-24. In France, Gecina is still benefiting from tenants moving out of peripheral offices for smaller units in core locations. The high vacancy ratio outside CBD is however a forward concern.
Lfl top line was negative in Q4 21, as far as we can estimate it, coupled with vacancy rising slightly or standing at high levels. Due to further yield compression (yield of 3.1% on the full portfolio in December 2021), GAV was up 3% lfl, nevertheless. Gecina’s guidance of a positive outlook shouldn’t weigh on the share price at the end of the day.
Q3 21 was further confirmation of a polarising market: CBD experiencing nice performances whereas peripheral locations continue to loseng steam. The heart of Gecina leans on CBD.
Gecina’s H1 21 figures showed the great resilience of Paris CBD, where the bulk of its €20bn assets leans (€4bn in La Défense). End-market data don’t show a strong adjustment in either rents or price per sqm in Paris CBD, even if the same parameters are a bit more worrying at the fringe of it.
Adjusted for exceptional items, the performance of Offices was -0.7% in Q1 21. Net of the positive indexation of 0.8%, the negative 1.5% mirrored the 130bp degradation in occupancy yoy (-140bp sequentially). Gecina is highlighting an improving end-market. As far as we are concerned, we believe in a catch-up phase.
Gecina’s guidance doesn’t account a strong increase in forward vacancy nor diminishing rents. It highlighted the +2.7% in Paris CBD (Offices) and the +7% in Residential values, both in FY 20. However, Gecina’s assets were up 1% in H1 20 and down 1% in H2 20 (sequentially). Nothing worrying at pixel time.
The Q3 20 performance was good overall with still high rents in the City of Paris inducing a positive reversion. Gecina confirmed, unsurprisingly, some growing uncertainty in both the first and second inner rings.
Companies: Gecina SA
Office values were safe in Paris CBD in H1 20 (or two-thirds of Gecina’s portfolio) due to stable but toppish rents. Reversion now clearly turned into negative territory in both the 1st and 2nd inner rings of Paris. This was the logical continuation of the fragilities identifiable since mid-2019.
Shopping malls have experienced down values in Europe since 2018 but Offices reached their tops in February 2020. We now anticipate a 10-15% cut in values, as a minimum. It was 18% in 2008-09. We now factor it in our model for Gecina.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Gecina SA. We currently have 22 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
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