Q3 23: volumes have yet to land

Bekaert published Q3 23 revenues which missed street forecasts as the slump in volume came in worse-than-expected. Consolidated sales declined by 8% sequentially, when consensus was expecting a c. +5% rebound. Bekaert finally issued a quantitative FY23 guidance, calling for a 7% cut to our top line expectation. Our 8.6% underlying EBIT forecast met the freshly issued FY23 target. The first comments on the FY24 perspectives lacked optimism. We expect the 7 December CMD to be focused on growth dri

Closing FY22 on a strong FCF, 8.8% yield, and acceleration in hydrogen

Bekaert reported FY22 results in line with the guidance, underlined by better-than-expected FCF generation stemming from well-managed WC. The return to shareholders looks attractive with a yield at 8.8% based on €90m of dividend payments and the unexpected €120m of buyback (again). Given the health of Bekaert’s balance sheet, this return could have been higher but external growth remains a priority. The FY23 performance will depend on the rebound of the Chinese market. “New Bekaert” appears to b

Q3 22: huge pricing and lower volumes again; a FY22 guidance, at last

Bekaert’s Q3 trading update came in with a strong price effect, yet decreasing sequentially on tougher comps, and plunging volumes on par with the performance in H1 22. The company finally issued a guidance for FY22, topping our expectation on top-line growth but slightly falling short of our adjusted EBIT forecast. The company also confirmed its mid-term targets, which point to structural improvements and decreased cyclicality. 2023 is likely to be a good stress test.

Q1 22 figures showed astonishing pricing and weakening volumes

Bekaert’s Q1 trading update was above expectations on the back of a huge price effect offsetting the weak volumes especially in China. Despite the split between price mix and pass-through pricing being unknown, this once again confirmed the company’s good pricing power coupled with the positive trend in the ongoing portfolio rotation. The initial comments on the FY22 outlook call for an increase in our top line and EBIT expectations. Chinese lockdowns remain the key uncertainty.

Expectation-beating FY21 results, strong set-up to navigate the crisis

Bekaert reported a guidance-beating set of FY21 results on the back of revenue growth combining a +9% volume effect and a +19% price effect. Despite the seasonally lower profitability in H2 and cost headwinds, the company comfortably met its outlook, with underlying EBIT landing 50bps ahead of the AV estimate. The absence of guidance for FY22 reflects the high uncertainty on the market environment although the management has reiterated its mid-term outlook as a sign of confidence. A €120m buybac

H1 21: how to use cash?

Bekaert posted record H1 21 on every line. With a positive alignment of the volume rebound, skyrocketing raw material prices, and improving price/mix, the underlying EBIT margin landed at 12.4%. Management has started to weigh up M&A options to use the rapidly growing cash pile. Mid-term outlook was upgraded only two months after Bekaert’s CMD.

Takeaways from the CMD

Having postponed the date from last March to give the new CEO time to settle in, Bekaert finally held its CMD with an expected upgrade to FY21 guidance, and a mid-term outlook in radical continuation of its current strategy. The main limitations remain the uncertainties about raw material headwinds which could lead to sticky margins on the worst-case scenario. Uncertainty also surrounds M&A targets and the magnitude of cost reductions, while the most recent track record calls for management effe

The portfolio review is delivering on its promises

Bekaert posted strong results in every respect. Despite FY20 consolidated sales down by 13% yoy, profitability and cash generation came in at record levels (FY20: underlying EBITDA margin of 12%, FCF up by 8% yoy) and paved the way for a massive deleveraging (net debt down 40% yoy). The company’s new CEO shows confidence looking into 2021.

Profitability rises faster than top line

Q3 20 trading update: the top line was pushed by tyre demand while the margin outlook exceeded expectations. Consolidated sales recovered +24% qoq, while FX acted as a brake. Management resumed FY20 guidance, expecting the underlying EBIT margin to rise despite sales down yoy. As a result, the net debt/underlying EBITDA ratio should end the year below 2.0x.

Wires for tyres? Not this time!

Bekaert posted a 20.2% yoy revenue contraction, mainly affected by its 42.2% exposure to the tyre & automotive sector (-29.1% yoy) and 18.9% exposure to the Construction sector (-28.8% yoy). Limiting this contraction, the basic materials and energy & utilities sectors grew by 33.4% yoy and 10.6% yoy, respectively. This translated into a €87m EBIT (benefiting from lower overhead costs, temporary plant shutdowns, and an increased focus on higher margin activities). As of now, the company has not g

Solid margin growth in 2019

FY19 results show negligible revenue growth and double-digit growth in the underlying EBIT margin. Rubber Reinforcement, Speciality businesses, and BBRG have done well, while Steel Wire weighed. Additionally, the company achieved significant deleveraging. Bekaert aims to improve its profitability progressively during 2020-21 to achieve a 7% underlying EBIT margin.

Q3 19 trading statement: not so bad but a soft Q4 outlook

The Q3 19 top-line growth remains decent However, the tyre business is seen as slowing in Q4 We will downgrade our forecasts for FY19 and going forward

H1 19: fine, but the outlook is rather soft

H1 19 results show a decent level of growth with improved margins Rubber Reinforcement and BBRG have done quite well, while Steel Wire and Speciality Businesses weighed The outlook, albeit vague, suggests a slowdown in H2 We will fine-tune our numbers, with no big change to be expected though

Q1 19 trading statement: OK

- Q1 19 revenues sound, despite a favourable comparison basis - Steel wire market is still under pressure - Tyre and construction markets are doing well - No change to our numbers on the release

Solid organic growth in Q3 led by pricing

In a short trading update, Bekaert reported first nine months consolidated sales of €3,227m, up +5%, while organic growth was +10%, led by volumes (+3%) but mainly price increases and a favourable mix (+7%). In Q3, volume growth moderated to +1.4% yoy as strong demand from the automotive and construction markets were partly offset by weaker industrial steel wire markets, reflecting the impact of rising trade tensions in the global economy. The aggregate effect of passed-on wire rod price incre

i3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada site visit review

Last week we attended a site visit to i3’s assets in central Alberta in Canada – the company’s largest producing area. We were left with a favourable impression of the magnitude of the company’s operations in the region, of the professional operational running of these, and of the overall level of opportunity in this well-established oil and gas province.

Reabold Resources - Payment received from Shell

Good news for Reabold, which is set to receive £5.2m of the second tranche payment from Shell imminently for the Victory gas field it acquired last year. The final £4.4m payment is due once the development approval for the field is received from the NSTA in the coming months. These funds will allow RBD to progress its two onshore gas developments in the UK and Italy and consider further distributions to shareholders. Partner funding of these projects remains an issue, but RBD’s risk/reward profi

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

88 Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Plexus Holdings, Baron Oil, Harbour Energy, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, Arrow Exploration, Southern Energy, Serinus Energy, SDX Energy, Panoro Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, OKEA ASA, Equinor Source: FactSet, weekly change 27/11/23-1/12/23 Oil extended declines, closing out a sixth straight weekly drop, as the OPEC+ output cuts announced Thursday failed to dispel the market’s gloom over swelling global supplies. West Texas Intermed

Tower Resources (TRP LN) - Initiation Report (SPECULATIVE BUY, 0.12p/sh TP)

Cameroon: Ready for the Rig

Pan African Resources - Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts

On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit

Morning Note – 4 December 2023

New Debt Facility – Lowering TRR Cost of Capital

We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.

Baron Oil - Chuditch PSC – Six-Month Extension

Baron has been granted a further six-month extension to the Chuditch PSC. The end of Contract Year Two will now be 18 June 2024, at which time Baron will need to make a decision on entering Year Three. In the Third and final phase of the PSC, a final investment decision (FID) will be required on an appraisal well targeting the Chuditch discovery (Chuditch-2). Baron continues to make good progress in its discussions with potential funding partners, having previously announced that it is in “advan

Hartshead Resources - Fully Funded Solution

Hartshead has secured a funding solution with partner Rockrose Energy to fund 100% of the Phase I development costs. Under the agreement, Hartshead has the option to exchange an additional 20% licence interest for an uncapped free carry, thereby covering the total cost of the Phase I development project (financing backstop). Importantly, Hartshead maintains at its election the option not to proceed with the RockRose financing solution, and introduce other financing solutions (eg project debt, pr

SP Angel Morning View: Ford takes 8.5% stake in Indonesian nickel project as Automakers swim upstream

Southern Energy - 3Q Results and Comprehensive Update Note

Southern Energy delivered solid 3Q results with the focus of attention now turned towards the completion of 4 drilled uncompleted wells (“DUCs”). We see our investment thesis for Southern Energy – premised on the scale, location, quality, deliverability, low-cost nature of the company's Gwinville gas field in Mississippi, USA – very much strengthening based on our structural commodity price outlook and our growing confidence in the highly prolific Gwinville gas field, sharpening our interest in

SP Angel Morning View: Gold powers through $2,100/oz on outlook for Fed rate cuts

SP Angel Morning View: China lithium stocks rally on prospects for market rebound

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

Andrada Mining: Lab-scale Spodumene concentrate results further advance Andrada’s lithium strategy

Andrada Mining (“Andrada”; “ATM”) has produced its first laboratory scale high-grade spodumene concentrate from mineralised pegmatite at Lithium Ridge (ML133). The material was sourced from the drill core of three holes through two separate pegmatite ore bodies drilled earlier this year. The weighted average feed grade was 1.69% Li2O (15.2% Spodumene), with a 76% Li2O recovery, producing a 6.8% Li2O high-grade spodumene concentrate suitable for lithium carbonate production. A second drill progra