A solid Q1 22, with some clouds ahead

The group released a solid set of results for Q1 22 It is maintaining the guidance issued in April We still believe that the current macro context could hurt We will fine-tune our numbers, with no major impact on our target price at first sight

A sound FY21…and too optimistic a guidance?

As expected (and communicated in the preliminary results), the FY21 results were very sound. The group benefited from high volumes and sky-rocketing prices. The guidance is supportive, even if it does not integrate the latest geopolitical developments. We are therefore a bit sceptical that the group can achieve its (unchanged) targets for the current year.

Salzgitter’s disappointing strategy day

The group presented its strategy to reach its 2030 environmental targets. Altogether, it looked like a marketing exercise and we ended up a little bit frustrated by the lack of financial targets, among others. Our numbers will not change after this event.

Q3 21 OK, with guidance that now looks cautious

The Q3 21 came as no surprise after the release of preliminaries in late October. They showed a still strong profitability on the back of firm prices. The market was probably surprised that the guidance was not revised upwards. It may also have to wait for the new CEO to present his strategy in early 2022. We will revise our numbers and valuation upwards on the back of this release.

A solid set of H1 21 numbers

The H1 21 numbers came in roughly in line with the street’s expectations The results were driven by the Strip Steel and Trading business units as well as the strong contribution from Aurubis The net financial position is stable despite the pick-up in activities The value of the CO2 allowances procured by the EU greenhouse gas emission trading scheme starting in 2021 amounts to almost €1bn The new strategy is to be presented by the incumbent CEO in spring 2022

Q1 21: a sharp improvement in profitability

Q1 21 results (already partly released on 25 April) came in above consensus Almost all segments did well on higher volumes and prices The group substantially raised its full-year guidance The contribution of Aurubis was also substantial We will adjust our numbers and target price

FY20 fine; a bit too cautious on FY21?

FY20 in line with preliminary results The operating cash flow has turned positive in Q4 No dividend to be paid for FY20 The group’s forecasts may look conservative The group insists on its green initiatives We will revise upwards our cautious forecasts

Management sees break-even 2020 profit in spite of COVID-19

Salzgitter’s management excuses the company’s very poor profitability with special effects. This was the case in the past and is again used as an excuse for the sizeable 2019 loss. Although the virus has changed the overall picture for the steel industry, management expects this year’s revenue to increase by more than 5% to €9bn and break-even pre-tax earnings.

Management now expects a sizeable 2019 pre-tax loss

Salzgitter has released regular profit warnings during the course of 2019. It now uses the current weak environment to write off another €200m of the group’s assets. As a result, the pre-tax loss is now expected to amount to €250-280m.

Divisional EBT numbers down even when the €141m cartel provision is excluded

With the exception of Mannesmann (i.e. tubes), all divisions saw their ASPs falling in the last quarter. Consequently, and with the exception of Strip Steel and Technology, all divisions suffered from pre-tax losses. In fact, both Plate/Sections and Mannesmann are now showing a pre-tax loss for 9M 19.

Significant profit warning for 2019

Having given a dismal pre-tax profit guidance for 2019 (€125-175m), management now expects a loss for the current year.

Net attributable loss in Q2 19

Delivery volumes and sales prices are driving the steel industry’s profits. Salzgitter’s Q2 numbers for both Strip Steel and Plate/Sections showed falling volumes and falling ASPs. As a result, not only divisional earnings fell but also consolidated profits were down as well.

Aurubis will suffer enormously from the termination of a mega project

Salzgitter holds a 25% stake in Aurubis, the copper smelter. This affiliate has contributed extremely volatile at-equity profits in recent years and was expected to contribute rather high earnings in the coming years. This seems to be under threat.

Higher at-equity profit from Aurubis sole reason for profit increase

Salzgitter holds a 25% stake in copper refiner Aurubis. This stake was lowered a while ago as Salzgitter had issued a bond that was convertible into Aurubis shares. The stake has again been increased to 25% in Q1 19 and the revaluation of the stake plus its at-equity profit contribution increased stated earnings by around €43m. The reported profit increase was less than that.

Dividend proposal and debt load are disappointments

Salzgitter had released preliminary revenue and profit numbers for 2018 in early February and has now released its annual report. Based on management’s release in February, we had expected the dividend to be raised from €0.45 to €0.60 but the final proposal is €0.55. In addition, we had expected the balance sheet to show net debt at the end of 2018 (€69m), but the number has actually increased to €95m.

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Raising guidance on strong half

Alkaid #2 test - follow-on potential project economics

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Bringing water desalination capabilities in house is important for the green hydrogen business

• Chariot is acquiring ENEO Water PTE for US$0.5-1.0 mm in Chariot shares. • ENEO utilises an efficient, modular and scalable reverse osmosis technology that can be entirely powered by solar energy to produce desalinated water. ENEO is developing a proof of concept at a windfarm on the Red Sea in Djibouti that is under construction and is intended to provide local communities with access to potable water for the next 20 years. The capex of the project is very small (a few hundred thousand US dol

SHORE CAPITAL - SAVANNAH ENERGY+ (SAVE, Suspended, Under Review) - Sylvie Rucar appointed as independent NED

Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) - Wressle update

Ongoing strong production from Wressle. Union Jack has released an update on revenues from its Wressle field (Union Jack 40%). Wressle has now achieved US$13m of cumulative net revenues from the field since mid-August 2021, from US$12m as of early January 2023. The field continues to produce under natural flow and with zero water cut (most recently reported at a gross rate of 825-850bbl/d, and with current production described as being at “record” levels). These Wressle revenues continue to help

Cadence Minerals - Developing Amapá iron ore mine and strategic new technology metal interests

Cadence has secured a 30% stake in the Amapá iron ore mine, Brazil, for $9.3m, a project valued by Anglo American in 2012 at over $600m. With established infrastructure, Amapá is a company-making opportunity. Cadence has recently published a PFS on Amapá, which highlights the obvious value in the project. With equity interests in European Metals Holdings (Cinovec lithium-tin project in Czech Republic), Hastings Technology Metals (Yangibana REE project in Australia) and Evergreen (lithi

FY22 Trading Update

Diversified Energy has released a positive FY22 Trading Update and we increase our EBITDA forecasts by +3% in FY22 and 2023.

Record production achieved in trying circumstances

Higher production at Vanchem coupled with another stable year at Vametco saw Bushveld deliver record annual vanadium production in 2022, though the adverse impact of electricity load shedding on the ramp up of Vanchem meant that the full-year total narrowly missed the group’s target. We still anticipate a return to positive EBITDA for 2022 and further earnings growth this year as Vanchem continues to gather pace. However, evidence of positive progress on load-shedding mitigation measures at Vanc

IOG (IOG LN) - Southwark update – flow rate not improved

Flow rates from Southwark A2 continue to be poor. IOG has released an update on activities at its Southwark A2 well. In mid-January, IOG reported initial stabilised flow test rates from its Southwark A2 well of 4.2mmcf/d gross of gas and also 1.6mbbld/d of water. This gas rate was not likely to be commercial. The company has since progressed a programme to isolate several of the producing zones, aiming to achieve higher gas flow rates and lower water cut. This programme has now been completed, a

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): High 3Q22 production in Colombia and US$4 mm free cashflow

• 3Q23 production of 1,503 boe/d was above our expectation of 1,262 boe/d on higher production at Rio Cravo (860 bbbl/d) and Ombu (215 bbl/d). This suggests a continued strong performance of the RCE-2 well. • Corporate production in November has ranged between 1,900-2,000 boe/d with current net production of 887 bbl/d at Rio Cravo (up from 760 bbl/d on 01 November). While the RCS-1 well is still cleaning up, the newly perforated C-7A zone is already adding 165 bbl/d net (330 bbl/d gross) produc

Enhancing Ewoyaa: to extend or expand?

This Week's AIM Highlights 20th January 2023

LIBERUM: Atlantic Lithium* - Latest resources in-line; valuation upped to 57p on higher throughput

Royston appraisal drilling operations start

Cenkos: Diversified Energy Company Plc -- Delivering Amidst Volatile Markets

Diversified's unique, yet-simple business model continues to deliver amidst volatile capital and commodity markets. 2022 results were in-line with forecasts, with the Company maintaining its industry leading cash margin of 50%. Average daily production in 2022 increased 14% YoY to 135Mboepd, driven by the Company's 2022 Central Region acquisitions and the continued rigorous management of the Company's base production. Through its hedge-protected business model (85% of 2023 gas production hedged