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A solid 9M23 with a cumulated €7.8bn of EBITDA that represents about 90% of the maintained full year €8.6-€8.8bn guidance. While we found this guidance relatively cautious at the end of the H1, E.ON decided to maintain it by announcing several headwinds in Q4, citing increased volatility against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and price reductions for electricity and gas consumers.
Companies: E.ON SE
AlphaValue
A very good first semester with strong growth and contributions from the two main businesses of networks and energy supply. E.ON revised upwards its FY23 guidance with the EBITDA outlook increased by €800m (c.10%) in the back of the strong operating performance, one-off effects from market risk buffers release and improved visibility by the end of the year.
A good start to the year for the leading German networks operator, which reported strong operational growth, with a normalization in energy prices supporting both the networks and customer solutions segments. The capex and investment policy seems to be bearing fruit, enabling the group to remain confident in its ability to meet its 2023 outlook through to 2027, although it remains cautious in that the European energy crisis is far from over, highlighting the group’s sensitivity to a potential ri
After a disappointing Q3-2022, which failed to beat estimates, E.On managed to meet its guidance and delivered a stronger-than-expected operational performance amidst a disruptive 2022, driven by energy networks and customer solutions. These solid results confirmed the robust and resilient business model of the German networks operator that has decided to strengthen its strong position in the energy networks and infrastructures business by increasing its investment plans by €6bn by 2027.
E.ON posted another fall in its quarterly results, with a 3% drop in EBITDA. The challenging environment created by the energy crisis prevented E.ON from beating estimates even if the group remains confident in its ability to achieve its FY2022 outlook, despite a temporary earnings shift in the energy networks segment. However, thanks to its resilient model, the group managed to limit the damage and increase the EBITDA in its core business.
E.ON released a relatively reassuring set of half-year results. While the op. performance was still down yoy, the group’s damage control initiatives saw net income come in c.6% above the consensus. The ability to pass-through procurements costs in subsequent quarters will be key and is the focus of attention. In this context, E.ON confirmed all the FY22 guidance. This fits with our current estimates. Our positive view is confirmed but caution is advised.
E.ON’s Q1 22 exhibited relatively weak results due to the inability to pass on higher energy costs fully to end-customers. But the group made a point of showing confidence in its ability to recover these losses in subsequent quarters. Our view is rather cautious, but management’s pitch is convincing and, at least for now, backed by fragile visibility amid regulatory uncertainties. Full-year guidance is confirmed, but one thing is clear: no margin for error in the rest of 2022.
A rather solid set of FY21 results, higher than the consensus but slightly lower than our estimates, is not enough to offset the uncertainties to come. The impact of network losses and a risky exposure to the supply business are likely to tip the balance into negative territory regarding the exposure to soaring energy prices in 2022. Added to the Russian-linked uncertainties (NS1, gas supply), E.ON should remain the persona non grata of cautious investors’ portfolios until there is more visibili
E.ON unveiled its 2026 roadmap. The focus was on capex and network expansion to offset the lower regulated returns in the coming years. In all, nothing surprising, which from a market point of view means disappointment. The fnancial targets are in line with expectations while funding issues prevent further aggressiveness. E.ON is staying the course, business as usual. And this consequently lengthens the road to a rerating.
E.ON released a set of strong but expected 9M 21 results, with adjusted EBIT up by 46%. Positive effects from favourable weather conditions were the main driver. It allows the group to confirm its FY21 guidance, upgraded in H1. Note a substantial improvement on the net debt, even if several one-offs have contributed. Next trigger: the CMD on 23 November 2021.
What if the best solution for the energy transition were … nuclear power? Nuke is back at the heart of political debates in the context of the current energy crisis and massive but insufficient investments in renewables. This short review provides an overview of nuclear power in Europe and speculates on options. This ‘nuke optionality’, hinging on a favourable green taxonomy, is a game-changer for EDF, Centrica, Fortum but also Engie, Iberdrola, Enel and EDP.
The network giant beat estimates by 6% to reach €1.66bn in terms of EBIT (+14% yoy). Indeed, as the main growth driver, E.ON can be fully satisfied with its restructuring plan in the UK which pushed the Customer Solutions business up to return to profitability. Furthermore, all short and mid-term guidances are confirmed. Strengthened by a good start to the year, we stand at the top of targets. Positive view reiterated.
E.on released slightly above expectations FY20 figures, but were globally in line with our estimates. Net income is better but the dividend slightly worse. The impact of COVID-19 remains limited and should be recovered. The good news comes from targets for the next three years that are revised upward. A good point is also on the initiated deleveraging process from 6x to 4.8-5.2x net debt/EBITDA. Our positive view is confirmed.
Compared to H1 19 pro forma, adjusted EBIT was down by 7%, to €2.7bn, due to lower volumes (related to lockdowns) and lower regulated WACC in Sweden. The group revised downwards its FY20 EBIT and net income guidance, the mid-points are down respectively 7% and 11%. However, assuming no further severe lockdowns, the dividend policy as well as the 2022 targets are confirmed. We confirm our positive long-term recommendation on the back of the RAB’s growth potential and expected synergies.
EBIT decreased by 6% to €1.5bn due to lower allowed WACC for assets in Sweden, mild weather in Europe and higher depreciation. In Q1, the impact of COVID-19 was limited. Following EBIT, adjusted net income was down 8% to €691m. In short, the figures are roughly in line with expectations and the group is showing great resilience in the face of current uncertainties.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on E.ON SE. We currently have 33 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Companies: PLL AAL SAV KAV MKA AMC
SP Angel
Ultimate Products’ Q3 trading update reveals that tougher short-term trading trends are now likely to persist into Q4, but the longer-term trends are now more positive due to growing order visibility from its bigger customers. We are downgrading our EPS (Dil. Adj.) forecasts by 22% to 12.5p from 16.0p for FY24E, by 15.3% to 14.8p from 17.4p in FY25E and by 12.6% to 16.6p from 19.0p for FY26E. We reduce our target price to 185p (was 210p) to reflect the new forecasts. Shorter-term issues should r
Companies: Ultimate Products PLC
Cavendish
Companies: 88E MTC TIA DEC ULTP
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Hardman & Co
Ultimate Products announces today that sales revenue fell by 7% in its FY2024 third quarter and is anticipated to remain in negative territory in Q4. As a result, the company believes that EBITDA will now be in the range of £17.5m to £18.5m compared with a current market consensus figure of £21.5m. Given the 17% cut in current year EBITDA expectations it seems prudent to adjust our fair value / share figure by a similar amount. So, we reduce it by 20% from 250p to 200p. However, current sales s
Equity Development
Norcros recently hosted a Capital Markets Day (CMD) signalling a change in how the business communicates with the market. In recent history it has focused on growing its share of the highly fragmented bathroom and kitchen product markets organically and through acquisition. This has resulted in a portfolio of businesses with varying degrees of capital intensity and profitability but created a Group of scale (c. £450m revenue) with strong positions in its end markets. Last week’s CMD was evidence
Companies: Norcros plc
Zeus Capital
Economic and industrial data has started the second quarter on slightly weaker grounds than Q1 as Manufacturing PMI in the UK, Eurozone and US all reported April indexes below March levels. Cracks seem to be appearing as recent drops in new orders and rising input costs are quickly dampening confidence. Inflation did, however, fall MoM across the board with the exception of the US, where volatile energy prices caused a modest MoM increase in the inflation rate.
Companies: TAND AVON RCDO TRI SYM ABDP KETL
Eden Research has reported its interim results for the 12 months to December 2023. The company generated revenues of £3.2m, slightly ahead of the January trading updated expectation of £3.1m and c15% ahead of our forecast. We note the company generated strong gross profits and an adjusted EBITA ahead of our forecast, both of which we believe were supported by the first commercial sale of Ecovelex. The company closed FY23 with cash slightly below our forecast, which we believe was impacted by the
Companies: Eden Research plc
SDI has indicated that a slowdown in the life science / biotech market, and some resultant destocking, is likely to impact its expected FY24 revenue, leading the group to moderate current year guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. SDI notes that FY24 represents a short-term phenomenon, due to the over-ordering of the past three years caused by inflated Covid demand. However, we remain confident for the long term, given the strength of SDI’s ‘buy and build’ business model, with a number
Companies: SDI Group plc
Progressive Equity Research
Companies: Judges Scientific plc
Shore Capital
ATOME is to raise £1.8m, gross of costs, from a share placement and subscription. 3.8m new ordinary shares are being issued at 50p, marking a discount of 12% on Friday’s closing price. Directors and senior management have subscribed for a combined £665k of the total £1.8m with other investors making up the balance. The raise allows ATOME to continue to develop Phase 1 of the 145MW Villeta green fertiliser project and provides additional working capital for the company as they seek to finalise FE
Companies: ATOME PLC
Longspur Clean Energy
Invinity Energy Systems (IES LN) develops Vanadium Flow Batteries (VFBs) for utility-scale grid storage. The Group’s next-generation Mistral VFB technology, jointly developed with Gamesa Electric, launches in H2 2024 to provide grid-scale longer-duration energy storage (LDES) as renewable generation increases globally. To capture this opportunity, the Group has today announced that it has raised £56.0m through a placing at 23p per share. It is now undertaking an Open Offer to raise up to £6.6m a
Companies: Invinity Energy Systems PLC
VSA Capital
Companies: ITV RR/ KWS JD/ SENX
We have undertaken a scenario analysis of project funding options for ATOME. Our new backstop valuation based on topco equity funding at the level of the last equity raise gives protection at 64p. A more efficient solution of project sales at FID gives 200p but an even more efficient farm down model gives 252p. Financial close on Villeta this year could be a catalyst for these higher valuations. All options offer strong value at today’s share price and show that ATOME has optionality in financin
Invinity’s major equity fundraising is targeting a minimum of £50m with half already committed by the UK Infrastructure Bank (UKIB). A second strategic investment of £3m has been committed by Korean Investment Partners. The raise will see Invinity to net cash generation, with £30m of the raise supporting the company’s scale up ahead of this year’s launch of the next generation Mistral flow battery. The raise will boost the balance sheet, reducing counterparty risk and unlocking sales and bigger
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