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Ampere’s CMD was the opportunity for Renault to reassure investors on its near-term EV game plan. Ampere expects a FCF breakeven in 2 years with 300k units and an implied revenue per car of €33k. The BEV-ICE price parity was also on the menu but expected by 2027-28 as costs are slashed by 40%. Renault presented its interpretation of the “<€20k BEV”, thus joining Stellantis in frontrunning Tesla in the people’s car segment. The IPO window for Ampere was maintained.
Companies: Renault (RNO:EPA)Renault SA (RNO:PAR)
AlphaValue
Renault’s Q3 23 results (only revenues) slightly missed consensus expectations on the back of a weaker-than-expected volume effect, stemming from a voluntary destocking at dealerships, despite a pricing effect beating expectations. However, we expect limited changes to the FY23 consensus as Renault confirmed its guidance with profitability seen at the upper end of the range. We confirm our positive rating, believing that this miss on the top line does not reflect the underlying structural improv
The guidance upgrade was not enough. Renault posted H1 23 figures significantly above what it targeted only a month ago, therefore making delivery of the FY23 guidance an easier play. Market conditions in H1 were a clear support for numerous OEMs. However, we believe that Renault’s portfolio turnaround has a huge potential to deliver structural improvements on top. Bear in mind that the bulk of the renewal of the model lineup is coming next year. We keep our Buy rating.
Renault upgraded its FY23 margin and FCF guidance sending a positive message on the margin profile and the welcome of its new product range. This was backed by the strong product mix and lower headwinds on variable costs. Consensus’ prudence is likely to remain for FY24E as the first impacts of the price war have yet to reflect on Renault’s and peers’ P&L. However, it puts 2025 targets within reach. Ampere’s IPO is still on the table but rather for early FY24.
Renault has drawn up the guidelines for the future of its premium brand Alpine. This is a high-risk plan aiming at succeeding where Renault repeatedly failed (expanding in the premium segment, expanding globally, and getting recognition) but targeting the right trends, in our view. Though, we do not expect investors to buy into Renault shares on the back of this Alpine-specific teaching, given the shorter-term worries on the health of demand for autos, and the prospective IPO of Ampère.
Renault organised a tech session to showcase its vision of the SDV (Software-Defined Vehicle). This not-so-futuristic architecture should not only decrease development costs and times but also allow for revenues from services during the lifecycle of the vehicle. In our view, Renault’s approach appears very much consistent and well dimensioned with its overall “horizontal diversification” strategy. While the first SDV will be a van in 2026, its upcoming BEV offer already embarks building blocks o
Renault’s Q1 23 results beat the street’s estimates on the back of welcome outperformance in terms of volumes, product mix and price mix. Unsurprisingly, the guidance was confirmed but concerns over the sustainability of BEV prices remained an overhang for investors as Tesla is becoming increasingly aggressive. While we continue to find the Renault restructuring equity story compelling, we acknowledge that, in the short term, the weakness in the share price could continue until any impact or non
Renault’s FY22 results beat the street expectations on both sales and margin, and were close to our above-consensus forecast. The company symbolically resumed its dividend payment to signal its confidence in future FCF generation, but we like that the investment grade rating remains the top priority. The FY23 outlook matches the long-term plan and includes a cautious margin step-up. The order book remains high and the company refrained from entering roller coaster pricing “à la Tesla”. Our FY23
The reshaping of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance has been officialised. The companies have defined a legal framework to their cooperation that lacked details and let the door open for disappointment by stakeholders. Renault is not in a hurry to divest Nissan shares. The latest announcements support Ampere’s valuation which remains highly tied to Nissan’s say. Other projects announced mainly highlight that the three companies are set to continue their operational partnerships. They still h
The complexity of dealing with the Alliance have been weighing on Renault’s valuation for years but what if Renault leverages its knowhow in managing partnerships BU by BU? The last CMD of the “Renaulution” was all about reaching scale on each of the group’s businesses with an expected settlement of two new (but already well-equipped) entities (AMPERE and HORSE). Despite ambitious but credible financial targets, we wait for Nissan’s decision to get the full picture of this unique sprawling struc
Renault’s Q3 22 sales figures came in bang in line with consensus estimates. Key worries from investors have yet to be addressed/materialised into figures, i.e. the risk of worsening demand for 2023, the risk of pressure on cash flow (sole indication is the confirmed FY22 guidance) and, most importantly, the future of the Alliance (likely to be a key topic at the CMD to be held on 8 November). We plan minor changes to our figures following this release.
Renault faced a very challenging market environment in Q1, with production constraints owing to the semiconductor shortage and the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war given its significant exposure to the Russian market. Despite this, RNO was able to surpass (gloomy) expectations, demonstrating pricing discipline and the results of its product portfolio renewal. Even if the industry headwinds do not subside, the group is standing by its OP margin and cash flow guidance as it pursues its value-focus
Companies: Renault SA (RNO:PAR)Renault SA (0NQF:LON)
Renault released excellent FY21 results, beating consensus and our own estimates. The profitability of the automotive business saw a significant improvement over H2, driving the FY operating margin ahead of the Renaulution’s (rather conservative) target, two years in advance. Even if the cautious 2022 outlook remains subject to the chip shortage and raw material price concerns, the execution of the new value-focused strategy appears to be right on track.
Renault’s Q3 results showed the extent of the production disruption caused by the semiconductor crisis, which has proved more severe than anticipated. Despite the dire scenario, there were still silver linings, with RNO continuing to fulfil its cost savings plan, to be completed 1 year ahead of schedule, as well as positive developments in mix and pricing. The reiteration of the FY operating margin guidance should bring some reassurance to investors heading into a still chip-constrained 2022.
Renault’s H1 results release gave encouraging signs that the company is well ahead of the strategic objectives set during the Renaulution CMD and the previous cost savings programme. While volumes and revenues are not close to the pre-pandemic levels, a quicker return to profitability for the auto division support a brighter FY21 scenario, even if semiconductor supply issues will extend into H2.
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